Comparison of Antiplatelet Monotherapies After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention According to Clinical, Ischemic, and Bleeding Risks.

BACKGROUND: Clopidogrel was superior to aspirin monotherapy in secondary prevention after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the benefits of clopidogrel across high-risk subgroups METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis of the HOST-EXAM (Harmonizing Optimal Strategy for Treatment of coronary artery diseases-EXtended Antiplatelet Monotherapy) trial that randomly assigned patients who were event free for 6 to 18 months post-PCI on dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) to clopidogrel or aspirin monotherapy. Two clinical risk scores were used for risk stratification: the DAPT score and the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction Risk Score for Secondary Prevention (TRS 2°P) (the sum of age ≥75 years, diabetes, hypertension, current smoking, peripheral artery disease, stroke, coronary artery bypass grafting, heart failure, and renal dysfunction). The primary composite endpoint was a composite of all-cause death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, readmission because of acute coronary syndrome, and major bleeding (Bleeding Academic Research Consortium type ≥3) at 2 years after randomization. RESULTS: Among 5,403 patients, clopidogrel monotherapy showed a lower rate of the primary composite endpoint than aspirin monotherapy (HR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.59-0.90). The benefit of clopidogrel over aspirin was consistent regardless of TRS 2°P (high TRS 2°P [≥3] group: HR: 0.65 [95% CI: 0.44-0.96]; and low TRS 2°P [<3] group: HR: 0.77 [95% CI: 0.60-0.99]) (P for interaction = 0.454) and regardless of DAPT score (high DAPT score [≥2] group: HR: 0.68 [95% CI: 0.46-1.00]; and low DAPT score [<2] group: HR: 0.75 [95% CI: 0.59-0.96]) (P for interaction = 0.662). The association was similar for the individual outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The beneficial effect of clopidogrel over aspirin monotherapy was consistent regardless of clinical risk or relative ischemic and bleeding risks compared with aspirin monotherapy. (Harmonizing Optimal Strategy for Treatment of Coronary Artery Stenosis- EXtended Antiplatelet Monotherapy [HOST-EXAM]; NCT02044250).

Data-driven mortality risk prediction of severe degenerative mitral regurgitation patients undergoing mitral valve surgery.

AIMS: The outcomes of mitral valve replacement/repair (MVR) in severe degenerative mitral regurgitation (MR) patients depend on various risk factors. We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for post-MVR mortality in severe degenerative MR patients using machine learning. METHODS AND RESULTS: Consecutive severe degenerative MR patients undergoing MVR were analysed (n = 1521; 70% training/30% test sets). A random survival forest (RSF) model was constructed, with 3-year post-MVR all-cause mortality as the outcome. Partial dependency plots were used to define the thresholds of each risk factor. A simple scoring system (MVR-score) was developed to stratify post-MVR mortality risk. At 3 years following MVR, 90 patients (5.9%) died in the entire cohort (59 and 31 deaths in the training and test sets). The most important predictors of mortality in order of importance were age, haemoglobin, valve replacement, glomerular filtration rate, left atrial dimension, and left ventricular (LV) end-systolic diameter. The final RSF model with these six variables demonstrated high predictive performance in the test set (3-year C-index 0.880, 95% confidence interval 0.834-0.925), with mortality risk increased strongly with left atrial dimension >55 mm, and LV end-systolic diameter >45 mm. MVR-score demonstrated effective risk stratification and had significantly higher predictability compared to the modified Mitral Regurgitation International Database score (3-year C-index 0.803 vs. 0.750, P = 0.034). CONCLUSION: A data-driven machine learning model provided accurate post-MVR mortality prediction in severe degenerative MR patients. The outcome following MVR in severe degenerative MR patients is governed by both clinical and echocardiographic factors.

Long-term outcomes in distinct phenogroups of patients with primary mitral regurgitation undergoing valve surgery.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with mitral regurgitation (MR) may be heterogeneous with different risk profiles. We aimed to identify distinct phenogroups of patients with severe primary MR and investigate their long-term prognosis after mitral valve (MV) surgery. METHODS: The retrospective cohort of patients with severe primary MR undergoing MV surgery (derivation, n=1629; validation, n=692) was analysed. Latent class analysis was used to classify patients into subgroups using 15 variables. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality after MV surgery. RESULTS: During follow-up (median 6.0 years), 149 patients (9.1%) died in the derivation cohort. In the univariable Cox analysis, age, female, atrial fibrillation, left ventricular (LV) end-systolic dimension/volumes, LV ejection fraction, left atrial dimension and tricuspid regurgitation peak velocity were significant predictors of mortality following MV surgery. Five distinct phenogroups were identified, three younger groups (group 1-3) and two older groups (group 4-5): group 1, least comorbidities; group 2, men with LV enlargement; group 3, predominantly women with rheumatic MR; group 4, low-risk older patients; and group 5, high-risk older patients. Cumulative survival was the lowest in group 5, followed by groups 3 and 4 (5-year survival for groups 1-5: 98.5%, 96.0%, 91.7%, 95.6% and 83.4%; p<0.001). Phenogroups had similar predictive performance compared with the Mitral Regurgitation International Database score in patients with degenerative MR (3-year C-index, 0.763 vs 0.750, p=0.602). These findings were reproduced in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: Five phenogroups of patients with severe primary MR with different risk profiles and outcomes were identified. This phenogrouping strategy may improve risk stratification when optimising the timing and type of interventions for severe MR.

Angiographic complete revascularization versus incomplete revascularization in patients with diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Considering the nature of diabetes mellitus (DM) in coronary artery disease, it is unclear whether complete revascularization is beneficial or not in patients with DM. We investigated the clinical impact of angiographic complete revascularization in patients with DM. METHODS: A total of 5516 consecutive patients (2003 patients with DM) who underwent coronary stenting with 2nd generation drug-eluting stent were analyzed. Angiographic complete revascularization was defined as a residual SYNTAX (SYNergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with TAXus and cardiac surgery) score of 0. The patient-oriented composite outcome (POCO, including all-cause death, any myocardial infarction, and any revascularization) and target lesion failure (TLF) at three years were analyzed. RESULTS: Complete revascularization was associated with a reduced risk of POCO in DM population [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52-0.93, p = 0.016], but not in non-DM population (adjusted HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.69-1.17, p = 0.423). The risk of TLF was comparable between the complete and incomplete revascularization groups in both DM (adjusted HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.49-1.16, p = 0.195) and non-DM populations (adjusted HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.75-1.63, p = 0.611). The independent predictors of POCO were incomplete revascularization, multivessel disease, left main disease and low ejection fraction in the DM population, and old age, peripheral vessel disease, and low ejection fraction in the non-DM population. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical benefit of angiographic complete revascularization is more prominent in patients with DM than those without DM after three years of follow-up. Relieving residual disease might be more critical in the DM population than the non-DM population. Trial registration The Grand Drug-Eluting Stent registry NCT03507205.

Markers of Myocardial Damage Predict Mortality in Patients With Aortic Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is increasingly used for risk stratification in aortic stenosis (AS). However, the relative prognostic power of CMR markers and their respective thresholds remains undefined. OBJECTIVES: Using machine learning, the study aimed to identify prognostically important CMR markers in AS and their thresholds of mortality. METHODS: Patients with severe AS undergoing AVR (n = 440, derivation; n = 359, validation cohort) were prospectively enrolled across 13 international sites (median 3.8 years' follow-up). CMR was performed shortly before surgical or transcatheter AVR. A random survival forest model was built using 29 variables (13 CMR) with post-AVR death as the outcome. RESULTS: There were 52 deaths in the derivation cohort and 51 deaths in the validation cohort. The 4 most predictive CMR markers were extracellular volume fraction, late gadolinium enhancement, indexed left ventricular end-diastolic volume (LVEDVi), and right ventricular ejection fraction. Across the whole cohort and in asymptomatic patients, risk-adjusted predicted mortality increased strongly once extracellular volume fraction exceeded 27%, while late gadolinium enhancement >2% showed persistent high risk. Increased mortality was also observed with both large (LVEDVi >80 mL/m2) and small (LVEDVi ≤55 mL/m2) ventricles, and with high (>80%) and low (≤50%) right ventricular ejection fraction. The predictability was improved when these 4 markers were added to clinical factors (3-year C-index: 0.778 vs 0.739). The prognostic thresholds and risk stratification by CMR variables were reproduced in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning identified myocardial fibrosis and biventricular remodeling markers as the top predictors of survival in AS and highlighted their nonlinear association with mortality. These markers may have potential in optimizing the decision of AVR.

Differential risk of incident cancer in patients with heart failure: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) and cancer are currently two leading causes of mortality, and sometimes coexist. However, the relationship between them is not completely elucidated. We aimed to investigate whether patients with HF are predisposed to cancer development using the large Korean National Health Insurance claims database. METHODS: This study included 128,441 HF patients without a history of cancer and 642,205 age- and sex-matched individuals with no history of cancer and HF between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2015. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.06 years, 11,808 patients from the HF group and 40,805 participants from the control were newly diagnosed with cancer (cumulative incidence, 9.2% vs. 6.4%, p < 0.0001). Patients with HF presented a higher risk for cancer development compared to controls in multivariable Cox analysis [hazard ratio (HR) 1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-1.68]. The increased risk was consistent for all site-specific cancers. To minimize potential surveillance bias, additional analysis was performed by eliminating participants who developed cancer within the initial 2 years of HF diagnosis (i.e. 2-year lag analysis). In the 2-year lag analysis, the higher risk of overall cancer remained significant in patients with HF (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.05-1.13), although the association was weaker. Among the site-specific cancers, three types of cancer (lung, liver/biliary/pancreas, and hematologic malignancy) were consistently at higher risk in patients with HF. An exploratory analysis showed that patients with repeated HF hospitalization had a higher risk of cancer development compared to those without, in a pattern of stepwise increases across the three groups [controls vs. HF without re-hospitalization vs. HF with re-hospitalization ≥1; HR (95% CI), 1.00 (reference) vs. 1.55 (1.51-1.59) vs. 1.96 (1.89-2.03), respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer incidence is higher in patients with HF than the general population. Active surveillance of coexisting malignancy needs to be considered in these patients.

De novo malignancy risk in patients undergoing the first percutaneous coronary intervention: A nationwide population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has been the mainstay of revascularization strategy for significant coronary artery disease, future cancer risk after PCI has never been explored. We aimed to investigate the risk of incident cancer in patients undergoing PCI for the first time. METHODS: We studied 125,613 patients who underwent the first PCI between 2010 and 2015 without a prior history of cancer. For comparison, we selected 628,065 age- and sex-matched controls without any history of cancer or PCI who completed the assigned national health examination during the same period. RESULTS: During a median 4.56 years (interquartile range, 3.06-6.13 years), 8528 patients from the PCI group and 40,166 controls were newly diagnosed with cancer (incidence rate, 15.1 vs. 13.9 per 1000 person-years, p < 0.0001). Patients undergoing PCI presented a higher risk for cancer development than the controls in multivariable Cox analysis (adjusted HR [aHR] 1.06, 95% CI 1.04-1.09, p < 0.0001). To minimize potential surveillance bias, we performed 1-year lag analysis by eliminating participants who developed cancer within 1 year from the PCI. In this analysis, the increased risk of overall cancer in the PCI group became insignificant (aHR 1.02, 95% CI 0.99-1.05, p = 0.2017). Regarding site-specific cancers, however, the risk of lung and hematologic malignancies remained higher and the risk of gastrointestinal, liver/biliary/pancreas, thyroid, and breast cancers remained lower in the PCI group. CONCLUSIONS: Differential future cancer risks were observed in patients undergoing PCI. The results suggest that specialized surveillance strategy might be warranted for this expanding population.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is an early predictor of metabolic diseases in a metabolically healthy population.

AIMS: The relationship between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and incident metabolic syndrome in metabolically healthy subjects is unknown. We aimed to investigate whether nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is a predictor of future metabolic syndrome in metabolically healthy subjects. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Subjects who underwent health evaluation at least twice between 2009 and 2015 from the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort in South Korea were included. Patients without obesity who had no metabolic syndrome components were finally analyzed (n = 28,880). The definition of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease was based on both the hepatic steatosis and fatty liver indices. The incidence of metabolic syndrome, prediabetes/type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia was compared between the subjects with and without nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. RESULTS: The presence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease was associated with a higher risk of incident metabolic syndrome, prediabetes/type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia in the entire cohort (metabolic syndrome: adjusted hazard ratio, 2.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.18-3.71; prediabetes/type 2 diabetes: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.90; hypertension: adjusted hazard ratio, 2.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-4.12; dyslipidemia: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-2.06). A similar finding was observed in the age-, sex-, smoking status-, and body mass index-based 1:5 propensity score-matched cohort of 1,092 subjects (metabolic syndrome: adjusted hazard ratio, 3.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.79-7.07; prediabetes/type 2 diabetes: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-3.73; hypertension: adjusted hazard ratio, 2.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-4.88; dyslipidemia: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.61; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-2.32). CONCLUSIONS: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is an early predictor of metabolic dysfunction even in metabolically healthy populations.

Association of Total Reproductive Years With Incident Atrial Fibrillation, and Subsequent Ischemic Stroke in Women With Natural Menopause.

BACKGROUND: The association of lifetime exposure to endogenous sex hormone with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and subsequent ischemic stroke has never been studied. METHODS: This study involved 4 638 299 natural postmenopausal waomen aged ≥40 years without prior history of AF and with national breast cancer check-up between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2014. The primary end point was incident AF, and the secondary end point was subsequent ischemic stroke once AF has developed. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to estimate the risk of end points. RESULTS: During the mean follow-up of 6.3 years, shorter total reproductive years (<30 years) were associated with 7% increased risk of AF after adjusting for confounding variables (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.07 [95% CI, 1.05-1.09]). Risk of AF declined progressively with every 5-yearly increment in total reproductive years (P-for-trend <0.001). However, the prolonged (≥2 years) use of hormone replacement therapy after menopause was paradoxically associated with a 3% increase in AF risk (aHR, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.01-1.05]). For the secondary end point analysis, the risk of ischemic stroke after AF development significantly decreased with each 5-yearly increment in total reproductive years (with <30 years as reference; aHR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.99] for 30-34 years; aHR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.79-0.89] for 35-39 years; and aHR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.80-0.97] for ≥40 years, P-for-trend <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In women with natural menopause, shorter lifetime exposure to endogenous sex hormone, that is, shorter total reproductive years, was significantly associated with a higher risk of AF and subsequent ischemic stroke. Paradoxically, prolonged exogenous hormone replacement therapy increased the risk of incident AF.

Better Prognosis After Complete Revascularization Using Contemporary Coronary Stents in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic value of angiographic complete revascularization in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has not been thoroughly investigated, especially for contemporary coronary stents. We compared the clinical outcomes of complete and incomplete revascularization with second-generation drug-eluting stent, according to the presence of CKD. METHODS: From the Grand Drug-Eluting Stent Registry (N=17 286) in Korea, we selected 8471 patients, who were treated with second-generation drug-eluting stent and had glomerular filtration rate and quantitative coronary angiography data (3014 [35.6%] patients with CKD and 5457 (64.4%) patients with preserved renal function). Angiographic complete revascularization was defined as a residual SYNTAX score (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) of 0. The primary outcome was the patient-oriented composite outcome at 3 years, including all-cause death, any myocardial infarction, and any revascularization. RESULTS: The patient-oriented composite outcome rate after complete revascularization was significantly lower than that after incomplete revascularization in patients with CKD (14.6% versus 21.8%; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.64-0.96; P=0.020) and in patients with preserved renal function (8.0% versus 12.0%; adjusted hazard ratio 0.77; 95% CI, 0.63-0.94; P=0.011). The cutoff values of residual SYNTAX scores for predicting better patient-oriented composite outcomes were different according to the presence of CKD, that is, <3 and <8 in patients with CKD and with preserved renal function, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Angiographic complete revascularization led to better clinical outcomes in patients with CKD and with preserved renal function. However, the residual SYNTAX score to achieve a better outcome was lower in patients with CKD than with preserved renal function, favoring more aggressive revascularization in patients with CKD.