Developing films to support vaccine-hesitant, ethnically diverse parents' decision-making about the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine: a codesign study.

OBJECTIVE: To illustrate an evidence-, theory- and person-based approach to codesign the COMMUNICATE films that support parental decision-making about the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine for their teenagers. DESIGN: Codesign study. SETTING: Localities covered by two immunisation teams in London and the south-west of England. METHODS: The intervention planning phase involved combining evidence from a literature review with qualitative interview data to identify barriers and facilitators to HPV vaccine uptake, as well as design features that should be incorporated within the COMMUNICATE films. The intervention development phase involved identifying guiding principles for the COMMUNICATE films, mapping behaviour change techniques onto the behaviour change wheel and codesigning the COMMUNICATE films. Feedback from users informed modifications to maximise acceptability and feasibility and to support behaviour change. RESULTS: The primary and secondary evidence highlighted important content to include within the COMMUNICATE films: emphasise the benefits of the HPV vaccine, provide transparent information about the safety profile and side effects and emphasise the universality and commonality of HPV infection. A series of scripts were used to guide 4 film shoots to create the content in multiple community languages with 16 participants, including vaccine-hesitant, ethnically diverse parents and professionals. Overall, participants were positive about the films. Potential messengers and ways the films could be distributed, identified by parents, include local social media networks or text messages from general practices. The need for information about the HPV vaccine to be shared by schools ahead of consent being sought was also raised. CONCLUSIONS: By using an integrated approach to intervention development, this study has begun to address the need for an intervention to support vaccine-hesitant, ethnically diverse parents' decision-making about the HPV vaccination programme. A future study to codesign, implement and evaluate a communication strategy for the COMMUNICATE films is planned.

Information needs of ethnically diverse, vaccine-hesitant parents during decision-making about the HPV vaccine for their adolescent child: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The English schools-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme has the potential to eliminate HPV-related cancers if high uptake is achieved. However, unmet information needs among some parents may contribute to persisting lower uptake among minority ethnic groups. Through this study we aimed to understand the information needs of vaccine-hesitant, ethnically diverse parents during decision-making about the HPV vaccine for their adolescent child, to inform the future development of tailored communication materials. METHODS: Recruitment was facilitated thorough healthcare and community organisations within London and the South West of England. Semi-structured interviews took place between April and August 2023. Thematic analysis was undertaken, assisted by NVivo software. RESULTS: Of the 29 parents interviewed, the majority were mothers (79%), belonged to a minority ethnic group (88%), and had an adolescent child unvaccinated against HPV (72%). Five of the interviews were undertaken in the participants' primary language with translation support. Most parents interviewed had limited knowledge about the HPV vaccine and appeared conflicted as to whether vaccines could offer benefits to health. Misunderstanding around the potential of developing serious side-effects (e.g. fertility issues, developing cancer) were factors that could negatively impact decision-making by parents. Stigma associated with the sexual transmissibility of HPV did not always negatively impact decision-making. However, some parents chose not to vaccinate on the basis of perceptions of low risk and a preference to provide education about sexual behaviours to their adolescent child. CONCLUSIONS: Tailoring communication materials to address misunderstandings could support informed decision-making by vaccine hesitant parents for their adolescent children to be vaccinated against HPV. Future communication materials about the HPV vaccine should highlight the benefits of protection against cancer to increase parents' motivation for protect their adolescent child; provide accurate convincing information in relation to the excellent safety profile; and emphasise the importance of providing HPV vaccine at the recommended age, all alongside communicating the universality and commonality of HPV infection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: N/A.

Development of a multicomponent intervention to increase parental vaccine confidence and young people's access to the universal HPV vaccination programme in England: protocol for a co-design study.

INTRODUCTION: Persistent infection with HPV can result in cancers affecting men and, especially, women. Lower uptake exists by area and different population groups. Increasing parental confidence about, and adolescent access to, the universal HPV vaccination programme may help reduce inequalities in uptake. However, the evidence-base for interventions to address uptake for schools-based HPV vaccination programmes is currently lacking. This study protocol outlines how a multicomponent intervention to address this evidence gap will be codesigned with parents. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The proposed research will be undertaken in localities covered by two immunisation teams in London and the south-west of England. The 'person-based approach' to intervention development will be followed. In the first phase, an exploratory qualitative study will be undertaken with key stakeholders (n=8) and parents (n=40) who did not provide consent for their adolescent child to be vaccinated. During the interviews, parents' views on ways to improve parental confidence about, and adolescents' access to, HPV vaccination will be sought. The findings will be used to inform the co-design of a preliminary plan for a targeted, multicomponent intervention. In the second phase, at least two parent working groups (n=8) will be convened and will work with creative designers to co-design communication materials aimed at increasing parents' confidence in vaccination. At least two workshops with each parent group will be organised to obtain feedback on the intervention plan and communication materials to ensure they are fit for purpose. These findings will inform a protocol for a future study to test the effectiveness of the intervention at increasing HPV vaccination uptake. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The National Health Services Research Ethics Service and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Observational / Interventions Research Ethics Committee provided approvals for the study (reference 22/SW/0003 & 26902, respectively). We will work with parent advisory groups to inform our dissemination strategy and co-present our findings (eg, at community events or through social media). We will disseminate our findings with academics and healthcare professionals through webinars and academic conferences, as well as peer-reviewed publications.

Development of an educational package for the universal human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme: a co-production study with young people and key informants.

BACKGROUND: The English schools-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme is routinely offered to all young people aged 12-13 years, to prevent cancers affecting the cervix, vulva, vagina, penis, anus and mouth. Lower uptake among some population groups has been identified, in part, because of unmet information needs among young people. To address these unmet needs we report intervention planning and development processes to co-produce an educational package about the HPV vaccine. METHODS: We used co-production research methodologies and the 'person-based approach' involving the following iterative stages: (i) collating and analysing primary and secondary evidence, including HPV vaccine communication materials, interviews and workshops; (ii) developing guiding principles; (iii) undertaking a behavioural analysis informed by the Behaviour Change Wheel and the Behaviour Change Technique taxonomy; (iv) development of a preliminary logic model; (v) co-production of resources, and; (vi) refinement of resources informed by feedback from young people and key informants. RESULTS: We co-produced EDUCATE, a theory-based educational package, that is designed to be delivered to young people prior to being offered the HPV vaccine to support uptake. Young people and key informants identified the following key issues to include as content: (i) HPV-related information; (ii) how vaccines work; (iii) safety and side-effects of the HPV vaccine; (iii) eligibility for the HPV vaccination programme, and; (iv) preparation of young people to receive the HPV vaccine. A manual for professionals (e.g. immunisation nurses, school staff) delivering the intervention and a PowerPoint presentation, interspersed with five short films, were co-produced with young people and key informants. Following feedback, the content of the EDUCATE package was refined to increase acceptability, engagement, and persuasiveness to the target users. CONCLUSION: Engagement with young people and key informants was integral to the development of our rigorously developed, theory-based intervention to address young people's information needs about the HPV vaccination programme. The acceptability and persuasiveness of the package has been maximised by working closely with young people and key informants to develop the content. An implementation study to examine how the EDUCATE package is implemented in practice and the impact on uptake of the HPV vaccination programme is underway.

In England, young people are offered the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in schools at age 12­13 years to prevent some types of cancer. Some young people have unanswered questions which may stop them getting vaccinated. We report how we developed a lesson about the HPV vaccine jointly with young people and professionals to improve how information about the HPV vaccine is given. First, we reviewed research studies and HPV vaccine information materials designed for young people. Then, we carried out interviews and workshops to ask about the best way to give a lesson and the most important information to include. We worked with creative designers to produce films and animations. Finally, we asked young people and professionals for feedback on the lesson materials. The lesson includes a PowerPoint presentation with five films and guidance for people leading the session. Key topics about the HPV vaccine to be covered were identified by young people. These included information about how vaccines work and ways to improve young people's experience of having the HPV vaccine at school. We made changes to the information in the lesson to ensure that it was relevant to young people. We are now carrying out a study to find out how well the lesson is given and whether it can help more young people get the HPV vaccine if they want it.

Impact of new consent procedures on uptake of the schools-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme.

BACKGROUND: Local policy change initiating new consent procedures was introduced during 2017-2018 for the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme year in two local authorities in the south-west of England. This study aims to assess impact on uptake and inequalities. METHODS: Publicly available aggregate and individual-level routine data were retrieved for the programme years 2015-2016 to 2018-2019. Statistical analyses were undertaken to show: (i) change in uptake in intervention local authorities in comparison to matched local authorities and (ii) change in uptake overall, and by local authority, school type, ethnicity and deprivation. RESULTS: Aggregate data showed uptake in Local Authority One increased from 76.3% to 82.5% in the post-intervention period (risk difference: 6.2% P = 0.17), with a difference-in-differences effect of 11.5% (P = 0.03). There was no evidence for a difference-in-differences effect in Local Authority Two (P = 0.76). Individual-level data showed overall uptake increased post-intervention (risk difference: +1.1%, P = 0.05), and for young women attending school in Local Authority One (risk difference: 2.3%, P < 0.01). No strong evidence for change by school category, ethnic group and deprivation was found. CONCLUSION: Implementation of new consent procedures can improve and overcome trends for decreasing uptake among matched local authorities. However, no evidence for reduction in inequalities was found. IMPLICATIONS AND DISCUSSION: The new consent procedures increased uptake in one of the intervention sites and appeared to overcome trends for decreasing uptake in matched sites. There are issues in relation to the quality of data which require addressing.

Secondary analyses to test the impact on inequalities and uptake of the schools-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme by stage of implementation of a new consent policy in the south-west of England.

OBJECTIVES: To test the impact on inequalities and uptake of the schools-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme by stage of implementation of a new policy providing additional opportunities to consent. SETTING: Two local authorities in the south-west of England. PARTICIPANTS: Young women (n=7129) routinely eligible for HPV vaccination aged 12-13 years during the intervention period (2017/2018 to 2018/2019 programme years). INTERVENTIONS: Local policy change that included additional opportunities to provide consent (parental verbal consent and adolescent self-consent). OUTCOMES: Secondary analyses of cross-sectional intervention data were undertaken to examine uptake by: (1) receipt of parental written consent forms and; (2) percentage of unvaccinated young women by stage of implementation. RESULTS: During the intervention period, 6341 (89.0%) eligible young women initiated the HPV vaccination series. Parental written consent forms were less likely to be returned where young women attended alternative education provider settings (p<0.001), belonged to non-white British ethnic groups (p<0.01) or more deprived quintiles (p<0.001). Implementation of parental verbal consent and adolescent self-consent reduced the percentage of unvaccinated young women from 21.3% to 16.5% (risk difference: 4.8%). The effect was greater for young women belonging to the most deprived compared with the least deprived quintile (risk difference: 7.4% vs 2.3%, p<0.001), and for young women classified as Unknown ethnic category compared with white British young women (6.7% vs 4.2%, p<0.001). No difference was found for non-white British young women (5.4%, p<0.21). CONCLUSIONS: Local policy change to consent procedures that allowed parents to consent verbally and adolescents to self-consent overcame some of the barriers to vaccination of young women belonging to families less likely to respond to paper-based methods of gaining consent and at greater risk of developing cervical cancer. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: 49 086 105.

Co-production of an educational package for the universal human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme tailored for schools with low uptake: a participatory study protocol.

AIM: To co-produce with young people an educational package about the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine that is tailored to increase vaccine uptake in schools and populations with lower uptake. INTRODUCTION: Persistent infection with HPV can result in cancers affecting men and especially women. From September 2019, the English-schools-based HPV vaccination programme was expanded to include young men (in addition to young women) aged 12-13 years. Some young people attending schools with lower uptake of the vaccine have unmet information needs. We hypothesise that mechanisms to address information needs and increase young people's autonomy in consent procedures will result in higher uptake. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Medical Research Council's framework for development and evaluation of complex interventions will inform intervention development. Recruitment of young people aged 12-15 years and key stakeholders (National Health Service commissioners, school staff, immunisation nurses and youth workers/practitioners) will be facilitated through existing links with healthcare organisations, schools and youth organisations in areas with lower uptake of the HPV vaccination programme. The proposed research will comprise three phases: (1) a rapid review of adolescent immunisation materials and preliminary qualitative interviews with young people and key stakeholders, (2) theory development and co-production of HPV vaccine communication materials through an iterative process with young people and (iii) testing delivery mechanisms and acceptability of the educational package in four schools with lower uptake. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The University of Bristol's Faculty of Health Sciences and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine's Research Ethics Committees provided approvals for the study. A dissemination event for young people and key stakeholders and webinar with the National Immunisation Network will be organised. The study findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences. Recommendations for a future larger scale study will be made.

Young women's autonomy and information needs in the schools-based HPV vaccination programme: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Until 2019, the English schools-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme was offered to young women (but not young men) aged 12 to 13 years to reduce HPV-related morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study is to explore the extent to which young women were able to exercise autonomy within the HPV vaccination programme. We consider the perspectives of young women, parents and professionals and how this was influenced by the content and form of information provided. METHODS: Recruitment was facilitated through a healthcare organisation, schools and community organisations in a local authority in the south-west of England. Researcher observations of HPV vaccination sessions were carried out in three schools. Semi-structured interviews took place with 53 participants (young women, parents of adolescent children, school staff and immunisation nurses) during the 2017/18 and 2018/19 programme years. Interviews were recorded digitally and transcribed verbatim. Thematic analysis was undertaken, assisted by NVivo software. RESULTS: Young women's active participation and independence within the HPV vaccination programme was constrained by the setting of vaccination and the primacy of parental consent procedures. The authoritarian school structure influenced the degree to which young women were able to actively participate in decisions about the HPV vaccination programme. Young women exercised some power, either to avoid or receive the vaccine, by intercepting parental consent forms and procedures. Reliance on leaflets to communicate information led to unmet information needs for young women and their families. Communication may be improved by healthcare professional advocacy, accessible formats of information, and delivery of educational sessions. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies to improve communication about the HPV vaccine may increase young people's autonomy in consent procedures, clarify young people's rights and responsibilities in relation to their health care services, and result in higher uptake of the HPV vaccination programme. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 49086105 ; Date of registration: 12 January 2018; Prospectively registered.

FEV1 is a stronger mortality predictor than FVC in patients with moderate COPD and with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease.

Purpose: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Impaired lung function is associated with heightened risk for death, cardiovascular events, and COPD exacerbations. However, it is unclear if forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) differ in predictive value. Patients and Methods: Data from 16,485 participants in the Study to Understand Mortality and Morbidity (SUMMIT) in COPD were analyzed. Patients were grouped into quintiles for each lung function parameter (FEV1 %predicted, FVC %predicted, FEV1/FVC). The four highest quintiles (Q2-Q5) were compared to the lowest (Q1) to assess their relationship with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and moderate-to-severe and severe exacerbations. Cox-regression was used, adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, body-mass index, smoking status, previous exacerbations, cardiovascular disease, treatment, and modified Medical Research Council dyspnea score. Results: Compared to Q1 (<53.5% FEV1 predicted), increasing FEV1 quintiles (Q2 53.5-457.5% predicted, Q3 57.5-461.6% predicted, Q4 61.6-465.8% predicted, and Q5 ≥65.8%) were all associated with significantly decreased all-cause mortality (20% (4-34%), 28% (13-40%), 23% (7-36%), and 30% (15-42%) risk reduction, respectively). In contrast, a significant risk reduction (21% (4-35%)) was seen only between Q1 and Q5 quintiles of FVC. Neither FEV1 nor FVC was associated with cardiovascular risk. Increased FEV1 and FEV1/FVC quintiles were also associated with the reduction of moderate-to-severe and severe exacerbations while, surprisingly, the highest FVC quintile was related to the heightened exacerbation risk (28% (8-52%) risk increase). Conclusion: Our results suggest that FEV1 is a stronger predictor for all-cause mortality than FVC in moderate COPD patients with heightened cardiovascular risk and that subjects with moderate COPD have very different risks.

Impact and acceptability of self-consent procedures for the school-based human papillomavirus vaccine: a mixed-methods study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: The human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, administered in early adolescence, can substantially reduce cervical cancer incidence and mortality. However, lack of written parental consent is a key reason why some young women do not receive the vaccine. The national legal framework allows girls to be vaccinated without parental consent provided they are deemed Gillick competent, but there is some reticence about vaccinating without written parental consent. Self-consent procedures are being implemented in Bristol and South Gloucestershire. This study will examine the implementation, acceptability and impact of these new procedures. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Statistical analyses of routine data from Public Health England and the Child Health Information System will test if there has been an increase in HPV vaccination uptake in two ways: (a) Is there an increase when comparing before and after the change in our intervention sites? and (b) Does the percentage change in our intervention sites differ from comparison sites (similar to our intervention sites in terms of initial HPV uptake, ethnicity and deprivation levels) in England where no such intervention took place and how? For the process evaluation, we will develop a logic model and use questionnaires, observations and audio-recorded interviews with young women, school nurses, school staff and parents to examine the context, implementation of self-consent and response to the new procedures. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The University of Bristol Faculty of Health Sciences Research Ethics Committee and the National Health Service Health Research Authority provided approvals for the study. We will produce a report with recommendations about self-consent procedures in conjunction with key stakeholders. At least two papers will be written for publication in peer-reviewed journals and for conference presentations. A summary of results will be shared with participating immunisation nurses, school staff, young people and parents as requested. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN49086105; Pre-results.

Emphysema and extrapulmonary tissue loss in COPD: a multi-organ loss of tissue phenotype.

We tested whether emphysema progression accompanies enhanced tissue loss in other body compartments in 1817 patients from the ECLIPSE chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cohort.Clinical and selected systemic biomarker measurements were compared in subjects grouped by quantitative tomography scan emphysema quartiles using the percentage of low attenuation area (LAA%). Lowest and highest quartile patients had amino-acid metabolomic profiles. We related LAA% to 3 years decline in lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)), body mass index (BMI), fat-free mass index (FFMI) and exacerbations, hospitalisations and mortality rates.Participants with more baseline emphysema had lower FEV1, BMI and FFMI, worse functional capacity, and less cardiovascular disease but more osteoporosis. Systemic C-reactive protein and interleukin-6 levels were similar among groups, but club cell protein 16 was higher and interleukin-8, surfactant protein D and soluble receptor for advanced glycation end product were lower with more emphysema. Metabolomics differed between extreme emphysema quartiles. Patients with more emphysema had accelerated FEV1, BMI and FFMI decline and more exacerbations, hospitalisations and mortality.COPD patients with more emphysema undergo excessive loss of pulmonary and extrapulmonary tissue, which is probably related to abnormal tissue maintenance. Because of worse clinical outcomes, we propose this subgroup be named the multi-organ loss of tissue (MOLT) COPD phenotype.

Fluticasone furoate and vilanterol and survival in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with heightened cardiovascular risk (SUMMIT): a double-blind randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often coexists with cardiovascular disease. Treatments for airflow limitation might improve survival and both respiratory and cardiovascular outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess whether inhaled treatment with a combined treatment of the corticosteroid, fluticasone furoate, and the long-acting ß agonist, vilanterol could improve survival compared with placebo in patients with moderate COPD and heightened cardiovascular risk. METHODS: In this double-blind randomised controlled trial (SUMMIT) done in 1368 centres in 43 countries, eligible patients were aged 40-80 years and had a post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) between 50% and 70% of the predicted value, a ratio of post-bronchodilator FEV1 to forced vital capacity (FVC) of 0·70 or less, a smoking history of at least 10 pack-years, and a score of 2 or greater on the modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea scale. Patients had to have a history, or be at increased risk, of cardiovascular disease. Enrolled patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) through a centralised randomisation service in permuted blocks to receive once daily inhaled placebo, fluticasone furoate (100 µg), vilanterol (25 µg), or the combination of fluticasone furoate (100 µg) and vilanterol (25 µg). The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, and secondary outcomes were on-treatment rate of decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and a composite of cardiovascular events. Safety analyses were performed on the safety population (all patients who took at least one dose of study drug) and efficacy analyses were performed on the intention-to-treat population (safety population minus sites excluded with Good Clinical Practice violations). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01313676. FINDINGS: Between Jan 24, 2011, and March 12, 2014, 23 835 patients were screened, of whom 16 590 were randomised. 16 485 patients were included in the intention-to-treat efficacy population; 4111 in the placebo group, 4135 in the fluticasone furoate group, 4118 in the vilanterol group, and 4121 in the combination group. Compared with placebo, all-cause mortality was unaffected by combination therapy (hazard ratio [HR] 0·88 [95% CI 0·74-1·04]; 12% relative reduction; p=0·137) or the components (fluticasone furoate, HR 0·91 [0·77-1·08]; p=0·284; vilanterol, 0·96 [0·81-1·14]; p=0·655), and therefore secondary outcomes should be interpreted with caution. Rate of decline in FEV1 was reduced by combination therapy (38 mL per year [SE 2·4] vs 46 mL per year [2·5] for placebo, difference 8 mL per year [95% CI 1-15]) with similar findings for fluticasone furoate (difference 8 mL per year [95% CI 1-14]), but not vilanterol (difference -2 mL per year [95% CI -8 to 5]). Combination therapy had no effect on composite cardiovascular events (HR 0·93 [95% CI 0·75-1·14]) with similar findings for fluticasone furoate (0·90 [0·72-1·11]) and vilanterol (0·99 [0·80-1·22]). All treatments reduced the rate of moderate and severe exacerbation. No reported excess risks of pneumonia (5% in the placebo group, 6% in the combination group, 5% in the fluticasone furoate group, and 4% in the vilanterol group) or adverse cardiac events (17% in the placebo group, 18% in the combination group, and 17% in the fluticasone furoate group, and 17% in the vilanterol group) were noted in the treatment groups. INTERPRETATION: In patients with moderate COPD and heightened cardiovascular risk, treatment with fluticasone furoate and vilanterol did not affect mortality or cardiovascular outcomes, reduced exacerbations, and was well tolerated. Fluticasone furoate, alone or in combination with vilanterol, seemed to reduce FEV1 decline. FUNDING: GlaxoSmithKline.

Should we view chronic obstructive pulmonary disease differently after ECLIPSE? A clinical perspective from the study team.

RATIONALE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) seems to be a heterogeneous disease with a variable course. OBJECTIVES: We wished to characterize the heterogeneity and variability of COPD longitudinally. METHODS: In the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study of 2,164 patients with clinically stable COPD, 337 smokers with normal lung function, and 245 never-smokers, we measured a large number of clinical parameters, lung function, exercise tolerance, biomarkers, and amount of emphysema by computed tomography. All three groups were followed for 3 years. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We found a striking heterogeneity among patients with COPD, with poor correlations between FEV1, symptoms, quality of life, functional outcomes, and biomarkers. Presence of systemic inflammation was found in only a limited proportion of patients, and did not relate to baseline characteristics or disease progression, but added prognostic value for predicting mortality. Exacerbations tracked over time and added to the concept of the "frequent exacerbator phenotype." Disease course was very variable, with close to a third of patients not progressing at all. Risk factors for 3-year change in both FEV1 and lung density were assessed. For FEV1 decline, continued smoking and presence of emphysema were the strongest predictors of progression; club cell protein was found to be a potential biomarker for disease activity. For progression of emphysema, the strongest predictors were continued smoking and female sex. CONCLUSIONS: By following a large, well characterized cohort of patients with COPD over 3 years, we have a clearer picture of a heterogeneous disease with clinically important subtypes ("phenotypes") and a variable and not inherently progressive course. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00292552).

Coronary artery calcification is increased in patients with COPD and associated with increased morbidity and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery calcification is pathognomonic of coronary artery disease (CAD). Whether CAD in patients with COPD is linked to lung function, functional capacity and/or clinically relevant outcomes is unknown. The objective was to assess the association between CAD and disease severity, functional capacity and outcomes in patients with COPD. METHODS: Coronary artery calcium score (CACS; Agatston score) was measured using chest CT in patients with COPD, smokers with normal spirometry and non-smokers from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study. RESULTS: CACS was measured in 942 subjects: 672 with COPD (mean age±SD, 63±7 years; FEV1 49±16% predicted), 199 smokers with normal spirometry (54±9 years; FEV1 110±12% predicted) and 71 non-smokers (55±9 years; FEV1 114±14% predicted). CACS was higher in patients with COPD than smokers or non-smokers (median (IQR), 128 (492) vs 0 (75) vs 0 (3) Agatston units (AU), p<0.001). In patients with COPD, CACS correlated with age, pack-years, 6 min walking distance, modified Medical Research Council Dyspnoea score and circulating levels of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, Clara Cell protein 16, surfactant protein D and peripheral blood neutrophil count, but not with emphysema, exacerbation frequency, % predicted FEV1 or decline in FEV1. CACS was higher in patients with COPD who died than in those who survived until 3-year follow-up (CACS 406 vs 103 AU, p<0.001), and was associated with mortality in a Cox proportional hazards model (p=0.036). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with COPD have more CAD than controls and this is associated with increased dyspnoea, reduced exercise capacity and increased mortality. These data indicate that the presence of CAD in patients with COPD is associated with poor clinical outcomes.

Comorbidity, systemic inflammation and outcomes in the ECLIPSE cohort.

Comorbidities, are common in COPD, have been associated with poor outcomes and are thought to relate to systemic inflammation. To investigate comorbidities in relation to systemic inflammation and outcomes we recorded comorbidities in a well characterized cohort (ECLIPSE study) for 2164 clinically stable COPD subjects, 337 smokers and 245 non-smokers with normal lung function. COPD patients had a higher prevalence of osteoporosis, anxiety/panic attacks, heart trouble, heart attack, and heart failure, than smokers or nonsmokers. Heart failure (Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.9, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.3-2.9), ischemic heart disease (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.0), heart disease (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2-2.0), and diabetes (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2-2.4) had increased odds of mortality when coexistent with COPD. Multiple comorbidities had accumulative effect on mortality. COPD and cardiovascular disease was associated with poorer quality of life, higher MRC dyspnea scores, reduced 6MWD, higher BODE index scores. Osteoporosis, hypertension and diabetes were associated with higher MRC dyspnea scores and reduced 6MWD. Higher blood concentrations of fibrinogen, IL-6 and IL-8 levels occurred in those with heart disease. Comorbidity is associated with poor clinical outcomes in COPD. The comorbidities of heart disease, hypertension and diabetes are associated with increased systemic inflammation.

The presence and progression of emphysema in COPD as determined by CT scanning and biomarker expression: a prospective analysis from the ECLIPSE study.

BACKGROUND: Emphysema is a key contributor to airflow limitation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and can be quantified using CT scanning. We investigated the change in CT lung density in a longitudinal, international cohort of patients with COPD. We also explored the potential relation between emphysema and patient characteristics, and investigated if certain circulating biomarkers were associated with decline in CT lung density. METHODS: We used a random coefficient model to assess predictors of both CT lung density and its longitudinal change over 3 years in 1928 patients with COPD enrolled in the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study. Lung density was measured for every voxel in the CT scan and after correcting for lung volume was expressed as the density at lowest 15th percentile point of the distribution. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00292552. FINDINGS: Lung density at baseline was influenced by age, sex, body-mass index, current smoking status and smoking history, and severity of airflow limitation. The observed decline in lung density was variable (mean decline -1·13 g/L [SE 0·06] per year). The annual decline in lung density was more rapid in women (additional -0·41 [SE 0·14] g/L per year, p=0·003) than men and in current smokers (additional -0·29 [SE 0·14] g/L per year, p=0·047) than in former smokers. Circulating levels of the biomarkers surfactant protein D (SP-D) and soluble receptor for advanced glycation endproduct (sRAGE) were significantly associated with both baseline lung density and its decline over time. INTERPRETATION: This study shows that decline in lung density in COPD can be measured, that it is variable, and related to smoking and gender. We identified potential biochemical predictors of the presence and progression of emphysema. FUNDING: GlaxoSmithKline.

Genome-wide association analysis of blood biomarkers in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

RATIONALE: A genome-wide association study (GWAS) for circulating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) biomarkers could identify genetic determinants of biomarker levels and COPD susceptibility. OBJECTIVES: To identify genetic variants of circulating protein biomarkers and novel genetic determinants of COPD. METHODS: GWAS was performed for two pneumoproteins, Clara cell secretory protein (CC16) and surfactant protein D (SP-D), and five systemic inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, IL-6, IL-8, and tumor necrosis factor-α) in 1,951 subjects with COPD. For genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (P < 1 × 10(-8)), association with COPD susceptibility was tested in 2,939 cases with COPD and 1,380 smoking control subjects. The association of candidate SNPs with mRNA expression in induced sputum was also elucidated. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Genome-wide significant susceptibility loci affecting biomarker levels were found only for the two pneumoproteins. Two discrete loci affecting CC16, one region near the CC16 coding gene (SCGB1A1) on chromosome 11 and another locus approximately 25 Mb away from SCGB1A1, were identified, whereas multiple SNPs on chromosomes 6 and 16, in addition to SNPs near SFTPD, had genome-wide significant associations with SP-D levels. Several SNPs affecting circulating CC16 levels were significantly associated with sputum mRNA expression of SCGB1A1 (P = 0.009-0.03). Several SNPs highly associated with CC16 or SP-D levels were nominally associated with COPD in a collaborative GWAS (P = 0.001-0.049), although these COPD associations were not replicated in two additional cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Distant genetic loci and biomarker-coding genes affect circulating levels of COPD-related pneumoproteins. A subset of these protein quantitative trait loci may influence their gene expression in the lung and/or COPD susceptibility. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00292552).

Bronchodilator responsiveness as a phenotypic characteristic of established chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Bronchodilator responsiveness is a potential phenotypic characteristic of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We studied whether change in lung function after a bronchodilator is abnormal in COPD, whether stable responder subgroups can be identified, and whether these subgroups experience different clinical outcomes. METHODS: 1831 patients with COPD, 285 smoking (SC) and 228 non-smoking (NSC) controls from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) cohort. Spirometric reversibility to 400 µg inhaled salbutamol was assessed on four occasions over 1 year. RESULTS: Forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)) increase after salbutamol was similar in SC (mean 0.14 litres (SD 0.15)) and COPD (0.12 litres (0.15)) and was significantly greater than NSC (0.08 litres (0.14)). Reversibility status varied with repeated testing in parallel with the day-to-day variation in pre-bronchodilator FEV(1), which was similar in control subjects and patients with COPD. Absolute FEV(1) change decreased by Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage in patients with COPD (GOLD II, mean 0.16 litres (SD 0.17); III, 0.10 litres (0.13); IV, 0.05 litres (0.08) as did chances of being classified as reversible. CT-defined emphysema was weakly related to the absolute change in FEV(1) post salbutamol. Consistently reversible patients (n=227) did not differ in mortality, hospitalisation or exacerbation experience from irreversible patients when allowing for differences in baseline FEV(1). LIMITATIONS: Reversibility only assessed with salbutamol and defined by FEV(1) criteria. The COPD population was older than the control populations. CONCLUSIONS: Post-salbutamol FEV(1) change is similar in patients with COPD and smoking controls but is influenced by baseline lung function and the presence of emphysema. Bronchodilator reversibility status varies temporally and does not distinguish clinically relevant outcomes, making it an unreliable phenotype.

Persistent systemic inflammation is associated with poor clinical outcomes in COPD: a novel phenotype.

BACKGROUND: Because chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous condition, the identification of specific clinical phenotypes is key to developing more effective therapies. To explore if the persistence of systemic inflammation is associated with poor clinical outcomes in COPD we assessed patients recruited to the well-characterized ECLIPSE cohort (NCT00292552). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Six inflammatory biomarkers in peripheral blood (white blood cells (WBC) count and CRP, IL-6, IL-8, fibrinogen and TNF-α levels) were quantified in 1,755 COPD patients, 297 smokers with normal spirometry and 202 non-smoker controls that were followed-up for three years. We found that, at baseline, 30% of COPD patients did not show evidence of systemic inflammation whereas 16% had persistent systemic inflammation. Even though pulmonary abnormalities were similar in these two groups, persistently inflamed patients during follow-up had significantly increased all-cause mortality (13% vs. 2%, p<0.001) and exacerbation frequency (1.5 (1.5) vs. 0.9 (1.1) per year, p<0.001) compared to non-inflamed ones. As a descriptive study our results show associations but do not prove causality. Besides this, the inflammatory response is complex and we studied only a limited panel of biomarkers, albeit they are those investigated by the majority of previous studies and are often and easily measured in clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, these results identify a novel systemic inflammatory COPD phenotype that may be the target of specific research and treatment.