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Objective: Even though childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) has an encouraging survival rate in recent years, some patients are still at risk of relapse or even death. Therefore, we aimed to construct a nomogram to predict event-free survival (EFS) in patients with ALL. Method: Children with newly diagnosed ALL between October 2016 and July 2021 from 18 hospitals participating in the South China children's leukemia Group (SCCLG) were recruited and randomly classified into two subsets in a 7:3 ratio (training set, n=1187; validation set, n=506). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate Cox regression analysis were adopted to screen independent prognostic factors. Then, a nomogram can be build based on these prognostic factors to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year EFS. Concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance and clinical utility of nomogram. Result: The parameters that predicted EFS were age at diagnosis, white blood cell at diagnosis, immunophenotype, ETV6-RUNX1/TEL-AML1 gene fusion, bone marrow remission at day 15, and minimal residual disease at day 15. The nomogram incorporated the six factors and provided C-index values of 0.811 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.792-0.830] and 0.797 (95% CI = 0.769-0.825) in the training and validation set, respectively. The calibration curve and AUC revealed that the nomogram had good ability to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year EFS. DCA also indicated that our nomogram had good clinical utility. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that EFS in the different risk groups stratified by the nomogram scores was significant differentiated. Conclusion: The nomogram for predicting EFS of children with ALL has good performance and clinical utility. The model could help clinical decision-making.
RESUMO
PURPOSE: To analyzed the outcome of ETV6/RUNX1-positive pediatric acute B lymphoblastic leukemia (B-ALL) with the aim of identifying prognostic value. METHOD: A total of 2,530 pediatric patients who were diagnosed with B-ALL were classified into two groups based on the ETV6/RUNX1 status by using a retrospective cohort study method from February 28, 2008, to June 30, 2020, at 22 participating ALL centers. RESULTS: In total, 461 (18.2%) cases were ETV6/RUNX1-positive. The proportion of patients with risk factors (age <1 year or ≥10 years, WB≥50×109/L) in ETV6/RUNX1-positive group was significantly lower than that in negative group (P<0.001), while the proportion of patients with good early response (good response to prednisone, D15 MRD < 0.1%, and D33 MRD < 0.01%) in ETV6/RUNX1-positive group was higher than that in the negative group (P<0.001, 0.788 and 0.004, respectively). Multivariate analysis of 2,530 patients found that age <1 or ≥10 years, SCCLG-ALL-2016 protocol, and MLL were independent predictor of outcome but not ETV6/RUNX1. The EFS and OS of the ETV6/RUNX1-positive group were significantly higher than those of the negative group (3-year EFS: 90.11 ± 4.21% vs 82 ± 2.36%, P<0.0001, 3-year OS: 91.99 ± 3.92% vs 88.79 ± 1.87%, P=0.017). Subgroup analysis showed that chemotherapy protocol, age, prednisone response, and D15 MRD were important factors affecting the prognosis of ETV6/RUNX1-positive children. CONCLUSIONS: ETV6/RUNX1-positive pediatric ALL showed an excellent outcome but lack of independent prognostic significance in South China. However, for older patients who have the ETV6/RUNX1 fusion and slow response to therapy, to opt for more intensive treatment.