The Association of Race, Ethnicity, and Insurance Status with the Visual Acuity of Retinoblastoma Survivors in the IRIS® Registry.

PURPOSE: To identify sociodemographic factors associated with the visual outcomes of retinoblastoma survivors. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using a US-based clinical data registry. All individuals < 18 years of age with a history of retinoblastoma in the Intelligent Research in Sight (IRIS®) Registry (1/1/2013-12/31/2020). The primary outcome was visual acuity below the threshold for legal blindness (20/200 or worse) in at least one eye. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between visual outcomes and age, sex, laterality, race, ethnicity, type of insurance, and geographic location. RESULTS: This analysis included 1545 children with a history of retinoblastoma. The median length of follow-up was 4.1 years (IQR, 2.2-5.9 years) and the median age at most recent clinical visit was 12 years (IQR, 8-16 years). Retinoblastoma was unilateral in 54% of cases. Poor vision in at least one eye was identified in 78% of all children and poor vision in both eyes in 17% of those with bilateral disease. Poor visual outcomes were associated with unilateral diagnosis (OR, 1.55; 95% CI,1.13-2.12; p = .007), Black race (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.19-3.47; p = .010), Hispanic ethnicity (OR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.16-2.37; p = .006), and non-private insurance (OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.02-2.10; p = .037). CONCLUSIONS: Poor visual outcomes appear to be more common among Black, Hispanic, and publicly insured children with a history of retinoblastoma, raising concerns regarding healthcare inequities. Primary care physicians should ensure that young children receive red reflex testing during routine visits and consider retinoblastoma in the differential diagnosis of abnormal eye exams.

Prevalence of Gastric Precursor Lesions in Countries With Differential Gastric Cancer Burden: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prevalence of precursor lesions for gastric cancer (GC) and the differential burden between countries of varying GC risk is not well-understood. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the global prevalence of precursor lesions. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence of atrophic gastritis (AG), gastric intestinal metaplasia (IM), and dysplasia in regions with low, medium, and high GC incidence. Because IM is an advanced manifestation of AG, we assessed the prevalence of less advanced precursors, regardless of the presence of more advanced lesions. Prevalence was sub-stratified by Helicobacter pylori infection, symptomatology, and period (<2000, 2000-2010, and >2010). RESULTS: Among the 582 articles that underwent full-text review, 166 studies met inclusion criteria. The global prevalence estimates of AG, IM, and dysplasia were 25.4%, 16.2%, and 2.0%, respectively, on the basis of 126 studies that reported the prevalence of less advanced precursors, regardless of the presence of more advanced lesions. The prevalence of all precursor lesions was higher in high and medium compared with low GC incidence countries (P < .01). Prevalence of AG and IM was significantly higher among H pylori-infected individuals (P < .01) but not statistically different between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals (P > .17). All precursors demonstrated a secular decrease in prevalence over time. CONCLUSIONS: Gastric precursor lesions have differences in prevalence in regions with differential GC incidence and are associated with H pylori infection. Because of the substantial prevalence of precursor lesions in both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, symptomatic evaluation may not be sufficient to identify individuals at risk. These estimates provide important insights for tailoring GC prevention strategies.

Causes and Clinical Presentation of Drug-Induced Dermatomyositis: A Systematic Review.

Importance: While several medications are known to induce dermatomyositis (DM), most existing studies are case reports or small case series from a single institution. There is also limited information on DM induced by immune checkpoint inhibitors, which are increasingly used in oncologic therapy. Objective: To characterize causes and clinical presentation of drug-induced DM based on the current literature. Evidence Review: A systematic review was performed in PubMed according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guidelines, from inception to August 22, 2022. Articles meeting preestablished inclusion criteria (written in English and classified as original articles, case reports, literature reviews, and observation letters) were selected and data abstracted. Articles that met the scope of the review were also added from reference lists. When possible, study results were quantitatively combined. Findings: In 134 studies (114 from the literature search and 20 additional studies pulled from reference lists) describing 165 cases, 88 patients (53.3%) were female, and the median (IQR) age was 61 (49-69) years. Among the cases of drug-induced DM, the most common associated medications were hydroxyurea (50 [30.3%]), immune checkpoint inhibitors (27 [16.4%]), statins (22 [13.3%]), penicillamine (10 [6.1%]), and tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (10 [6.1%]). Histopathologic testing, when undertaken, helped establish the diagnosis. There was a median (IQR) of 60 (21-288) days between drug initiation and drug-induced DM onset. History of cancer was reported in 85 cases (51.6%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this systematic review, drug-induced DM was associated with multiple types of medications, including chemotherapies and immunotherapies. It is essential that dermatologists promptly recognize and diagnose drug-induced DM so that they can guide management to minimize interruption of therapy when possible.

Health-related quality of life of pediatric brain tumor survivors after treatment in Jordan.

Background: The number of cancer survivors and survivorship are increasing. Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) has not been widely studied in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs). The aim of this study is to explore HRQOL of childhood brain tumor survivors and its determinants in Jordan. Methods: Health-related quality of life information was collected from 80 patients treated at the King Hussein Cancer Center and their parents using the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL) Generic Core Scales questionnaire in Arabic. Multivariable linear OLS regression models were used to analyze correlates of HRQOL and compare differences between child- and parent-reported responses. Results: Health-related quality of life scores reported by survivors and by parents were positively correlated on all subscales and total PedsQL scores (r = 0.59, P = .001). Survivors reported better HRQOL in cognitive subscale (ß = 0.56, P = .03) and worse HRQOL in work subscale (ß = 0.43, P = .04), but no significant differences in the physical, emotional, and social subscales and total PedsQL scores. Significant predictors of HRQOL reported by parents and by children were different. Supratentorial tumor location was associated with a 10.97-unit lower physical HRQOL score, and recurrence of tumors predicted a 17.5-unit lower total HRQOL score, indicating worse quality of life. Male gender (ß = 14.9, P = .002) and diagnosis of hypopituitarism (ß = 16.1, P = .03) were associated with better HRQOL. Furthermore, patients that only had radiotherapy treatment had better emotional HRQOL (ß = 32.9, P = .006) compared to patients that had combined radiotherapy and chemotherapy. Conclusion: This study provides evidence on determinants of HRQOL of pediatric brain tumor patients in Jordan. Future studies need to capitalize on the findings of this study to institute a system for regular assessment of quality of life of pediatric cancer patients in Jordan and other countries with similar health care systems and sociocultural backgrounds.

Approaches to developing de novo cancer population models to examine questions about cancer and race in bladder, gastric, and endometrial cancer and multiple myeloma: the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network incubator program.

BACKGROUND: We are developing 10 de novo population-level mathematical models in 4 malignancies (multiple myeloma and bladder, gastric, and uterine cancers). Each of these sites has documented disparities in outcome that are believed to be downstream effects of systemic racism. METHODS: Ten models are being independently developed as part of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network incubator program. These models simulate trends in cancer incidence, early diagnosis, treatment, and mortality for the general population and are stratified by racial subgroup. Model inputs are based on large population datasets, clinical trials, and observational studies. Some core parameters are shared, and other parameters are model specific. All models are microsimulation models that use self-reported race to stratify model inputs. They can simulate the distribution of relevant risk factors (eg, smoking, obesity) and insurance status (for multiple myeloma and uterine cancer) in US birth cohorts and population. DISCUSSION: The models aim to refine approaches in prevention, detection, and management of 4 cancers given uncertainties and constraints. They will help explore whether the observed racial disparities are explainable by inequities, assess the effects of existing and potential cancer prevention and control policies on health equity and disparities, and identify policies that balance efficiency and fairness in decreasing cancer mortality.

Reassessing the Benefits and Harms of Risk-Reducing Medication Considering the Persistent Risk of Breast Cancer Mortality in Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer.

PURPOSE: Recent studies, including a meta-analysis of 88 trials, have shown higher than expected rates of recurrence and death in hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. These new findings suggest a need to re-evaluate the use of risk-reducing medication to avoid invasive breast cancer and breast cancer death in high-risk women. METHODS: We adapted an established Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network model to evaluate the lifetime benefits and harms of risk-reducing medication in women with a ≥ 3% 5-year risk of developing breast cancer according to the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium risk calculator. Model input parameters were derived from meta-analyses, clinical trials, and large observational data. We evaluated the effects of 5 years of risk-reducing medication (tamoxifen/aromatase inhibitors) with annual screening mammography ± magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) compared with no screening, MRI, or risk-reducing medication. The modeled outcomes included invasive breast cancer, breast cancer death, side effects, false positives, and overdiagnosis. We conducted subgroup analyses for individual risk factors such as age, family history, and prior biopsy. RESULTS: Risk-reducing tamoxifen with annual screening (± MRI) decreased the risk of invasive breast cancer by 40% and breast cancer death by 57%, compared with no tamoxifen or screening. This is equivalent to an absolute reduction of 95 invasive breast cancers, and 42 breast cancer deaths per 1,000 high-risk women. However, these drugs are associated with side effects. For example, tamoxifen could increase the number of endometrial cancers up to 11 per 1,000 high-risk women. Benefits and harms varied by individual characteristics. CONCLUSION: The addition of risk-reducing medication to screening could further decrease the risk of breast cancer death. Clinical guidelines for high-risk women should consider integrating shared decision making for risk-reducing medication and screening on the basis of individual risk factors.

Breast Cancer Screening Strategies for Women With ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 Pathogenic Variants: A Comparative Modeling Analysis.

IMPORTANCE: Screening mammography and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are recommended for women with ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 pathogenic variants. However, there are few data to guide screening regimens for these women. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the benefits and harms of breast cancer screening strategies using mammography and MRI at various start ages for women with ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 pathogenic variants. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This comparative modeling analysis used 2 established breast cancer microsimulation models from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) to evaluate different screening strategies. Age-specific breast cancer risks were estimated using aggregated data from the Cancer Risk Estimates Related to Susceptibility (CARRIERS) Consortium for 32 247 cases and 32 544 controls in 12 population-based studies. Data on screening performance for mammography and MRI were estimated from published literature. The models simulated US women with ATM, CHEK2, or PALB2 pathogenic variants born in 1985. INTERVENTIONS: Screening strategies with combinations of annual mammography alone and with MRI starting at age 25, 30, 35, or 40 years until age 74 years. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Estimated lifetime breast cancer mortality reduction, life-years gained, breast cancer deaths averted, total screening examinations, false-positive screenings, and benign biopsies per 1000 women screened. Results are reported as model mean values and ranges. RESULTS: The mean model-estimated lifetime breast cancer risk was 20.9% (18.1%-23.7%) for women with ATM pathogenic variants, 27.6% (23.4%-31.7%) for women with CHEK2 pathogenic variants, and 39.5% (35.6%-43.3%) for women with PALB2 pathogenic variants. Across pathogenic variants, annual mammography alone from 40 to 74 years was estimated to reduce breast cancer mortality by 36.4% (34.6%-38.2%) to 38.5% (37.8%-39.2%) compared with no screening. Screening with annual MRI starting at 35 years followed by annual mammography and MRI at 40 years was estimated to reduce breast cancer mortality by 54.4% (54.2%-54.7%) to 57.6% (57.2%-58.0%), with 4661 (4635-4688) to 5001 (4979-5023) false-positive screenings and 1280 (1272-1287) to 1368 (1362-1374) benign biopsies per 1000 women. Annual MRI starting at 30 years followed by mammography and MRI at 40 years was estimated to reduce mortality by 55.4% (55.3%-55.4%) to 59.5% (58.5%-60.4%), with 5075 (5057-5093) to 5415 (5393-5437) false-positive screenings and 1439 (1429-1449) to 1528 (1517-1538) benign biopsies per 1000 women. When starting MRI at 30 years, initiating annual mammography starting at 30 vs 40 years did not meaningfully reduce mean mortality rates (0.1% [0.1%-0.2%] to 0.3% [0.2%-0.3%]) but was estimated to add 649 (602-695) to 650 (603-696) false-positive screenings and 58 (41-76) to 59 (41-76) benign biopsies per 1000 women. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This analysis suggests that annual MRI screening starting at 30 to 35 years followed by annual MRI and mammography at 40 years may reduce breast cancer mortality by more than 50% for women with ATM, CHEK2, and PALB2 pathogenic variants. In the setting of MRI screening, mammography prior to 40 years may offer little additional benefit.

Population-Based Newborn Screening for Germline TP53 Variants: Clinical Benefits, Cost-Effectiveness, and Value of Further Research.

BACKGROUND: Identification of children and infants with Li-Fraumeni syndrome prompts tumor surveillance and allows potential early cancer detection. We assessed the clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of population-wide newborn screening for TP53 variants (TP53-NBS). METHODS: We simulated the impact of TP53-NBS using data regarding TP53-associated pediatric cancers and pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) TP53 variants from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results; ClinVar and gnomAD; and clinical studies. We simulated an annual US birth cohort under usual care and TP53-NBS and estimated clinical benefits, life-years, and costs associated with usual care and TP53-NBS. RESULTS: Under usual care, of 4 million newborns, 608 (uncertainty interval [UI] = 581-636) individuals would develop TP53-associated cancers before age 20 years. Under TP53-NBS, 894 individuals would have P/LP TP53 variants detected. These individuals would undergo routine surveillance after detection of P/LP TP53 variants decreasing the number of cancer-related deaths by 7.2% (UI = 4.0%-12.1%) overall via early malignancy detection. Compared with usual care, TP53-NBS had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $106 009 per life-year gained. Probabilistic analysis estimated a 40% probability that TP53-NBS would be cost-effective given a $100 000 per life-year gained willingness-to-pay threshold. Using this threshold, a value of information analysis found that additional research on the prevalence of TP53 variants among rhabdomyosarcoma cases would resolve most of the decision uncertainty, resulting in an expected benefit of 349 life-years gained (or $36.6 million). CONCLUSIONS: We found that TP53-NBS could be cost-effective; however, our findings suggest that further research is needed to reduce the uncertainty in the potential health outcomes and costs associated with TP53-NBS.

Small lymphocytic lymphoma presenting as chronic diffuse lip swelling.

Although rare, small lymphocytic lymphoma can present as chronic lip swelling and papules, thus mimicking the features of orofacial granulomatosis, a chronic inflammatory disorder characterized by subepithelial noncaseating granulomas, or papular mucinosis, characterized by localized dermal mucin deposition of mucin. When assessing lip swelling, one must carefully consider the clinical clues and have a low threshold to perform a diagnostic tissue biopsy, preventing delays in treatment or progression of the lymphoma.

Estimating Treatment-Switching Bias in a Randomized Clinical Trial of Ovarian Cancer Treatment: Combining Causal Inference with Decision-Analytic Modeling.

BACKGROUND: Bevacizumab is efficacious in delaying ovarian cancer progression and controlling ascites. The ICON7 trial showed a significant benefit in overall survival for bevacizumab, whereas the GOG-218 trial did not. GOG-218 allowed control group patients to switch to bevacizumab upon progression, which may have biased the results. Lack of data on switching behavior prevented the application of g-methods to adjust for switching. The objective of this study was to apply decision-analytic modeling to estimate the impact of switching bias on causal treatment-effect estimates. METHODS: We developed a causal decision-analytic Markov model (CDAMM) to emulate the GOG-218 trial and estimate overall survival. CDAMM input parameters were based on data from randomized clinical trials and the published literature. Overall switching proportion was based on GOG-218 trial information, whereas the proportion switching with and without ascites was estimated using calibration. We estimated the counterfactual treatment effect that would have been observed had no switching occurred by denying switching in the CDAMM. RESULTS: The survival curves generated by the CDAMM matched well with the ones reported in the GOG-218 trial. The survival curve correcting for switching showed an estimated bias such that 79% of the true treatment effect could not be observed in the GOG-218 trial. Results were most sensitive to changes in the proportion progressing with severe ascites and mortality. LIMITATIONS: We used a simplified model structure and based model parameters on published data and assumptions. Robustness of the CDAMM was tested and model assumptions transparently reported. CONCLUSIONS: Medical-decision science methods may be merged with empirical methods of causal inference to integrate data from other sources where empirical data are not sufficient. We recommend collecting sufficient information on switching behavior when switching cannot be avoided.

Cardiac Enhanced Recovery After Surgery: Early Outcomes in a Community Setting.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) programs have demonstrated improved outcomes in noncardiac surgery. More recently, ERAS has been applied to cardiac surgery with promising results. We have implemented cardiac ERAS at our community-based program, aiming to improve all phases of care, and now report our early results. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 73 consecutive patients treated with ERAS care compared with 74 patients treated before implementing ERAS. Our ERAS program consisted of 6 perioperative care bundles including enhanced patient education, shortened preoperative fasting period and oral carbohydrate load, postoperative nausea prophylaxis, multimodal opioid-sparing analgesia, early extubation, and early mobilization. RESULTS: ERAS patients required significantly less opioids captured as total morphine milligram equivalents (MME) (median 35.0 vs 75.3; P < .001), less nausea as determined by fewer total ondansetron rescue doses (median 0 vs 0.5; P = .011), and less lightheadedness (P = .028) compared with pre-ERAS patients. Postoperative mobility was significantly better (postoperative day 4: 95% vs 81%; P = .013) and postoperative length of stay was lower for ERAS care but did not reach statistical significance (median 4 days vs 5 days; P = .06). There was no difference in pain or glucose control or in early extubation. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac ERAS significantly decreased opioid use, nausea, and lightheadedness and improved functional outcome for cardiac surgical patients in a community hospital.

Breast Cancer Screening Among Childhood Cancer Survivors Treated Without Chest Radiation: Clinical Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Early initiation of breast cancer screening is recommended for high-risk women, including survivors of childhood cancer treated with chest radiation. Recent studies suggest that female survivors of childhood leukemia or sarcoma treated without chest radiation are also at elevated early onset breast cancer risk. However, the potential clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of early breast cancer screening among these women are uncertain. METHODS: Using data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, we adapted 2 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation models to reflect the elevated risks of breast cancer and competing mortality among leukemia and sarcoma survivors. Costs and utility weights were based on published studies and databases. Outcomes included breast cancer deaths averted, false-positive screening results, benign biopsies, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: In the absence of screening, the lifetime risk of dying from breast cancer among survivors was 6.8% to 7.0% across models. Early initiation of annual mammography with breast magnetic resonance imaging screening between ages 25 and 40 years would avert 52.6% to 64.3% of breast cancer deaths. When costs and quality-of-life impacts were considered, screening starting at age 40 years was the only strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below the $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained cost-effectiveness threshold ($27 680 to $44 380 per QALY gained across models). CONCLUSIONS: Among survivors of childhood leukemia or sarcoma, early initiation of breast cancer screening at age 40 years may reduce breast cancer deaths by half and is cost-effective. These findings could help inform screening guidelines for survivors treated without chest radiation.

Management of Cutaneous Immune-Related Adverse Events in Patients With Cancer Treated With Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors: A Systematic Review.

IMPORTANCE: There exists a paucity of literature that summarizes the effective management of cutaneous immune-related adverse events (cirAEs) in patients with cancer who are receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Most published articles are small case series from a single institution. To our knowledge, the spectrum of possible treatments has not been systematically reviewed to highlight the breadth of options when caring for patients with cirAEs. OBJECTIVE: To further characterize the development of subtypes of cirAEs in patients with cancer treated with ICIs and provide recommendations on optimal treatment regimens based on the current literature. EVIDENCE REVIEW: A search was performed in PubMed, Embase European, Web of Science, and Google Scholar on June 26, 2020, according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guidelines, limited to the years 2010 to 2020. Articles that met predetermined inclusion criteria (published between January 1, 2010, and June 1, 2020; written in the English language; and original articles, brief reports, case reports, and research letters that reported primarily on cirAE management) were selected, and data were abstracted. Articles that met the scope of the review were also added from reference lists. When possible, the results of studies that addressed a similar question were combined quantitatively. FINDINGS: In total, 138 studies (87 from the aforementioned literature search and 51 additional studies pulled from the reference lists of included articles) were included that reported on 879 cirAEs. The subtypes of cirAEs included maculopapular, pruritus, lichenoid, immunobullous, psoriasiform, granulomatous, erythema multiforme or Stevens Johnson Syndrome, drug rash with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms, connective tissue disease, hair, oral, and miscellaneous. Treatments for cirAEs included a combination of topical corticosteroids, systemic corticosteroids, steroid-sparing agents, and discontinuation or cessation of immunotherapy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This systematic review found that treatment with ICIs was associated with many types of skin toxic effects, each with unique treatment options beyond current published guidelines. Further research into key differences between subtypes is critical to improve the care provided to patients with cancer.

The antimicrobial drug pyrimethamine inhibits STAT3 transcriptional activity by targeting the enzyme dihydrofolate reductase.

Cancer is often characterized by aberrant gene expression patterns caused by the inappropriate activation of transcription factors. Signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) is a key transcriptional regulator of many protumorigenic processes and is persistently activated in many types of human cancer. However, like many transcription factors, STAT3 has proven difficult to target clinically. To address this unmet clinical need, we previously developed a cell-based assay of STAT3 transcriptional activity and performed an unbiased and high-throughput screen of small molecules known to be biologically active in humans. We identified the antimicrobial drug pyrimethamine as a novel and specific inhibitor of STAT3 transcriptional activity. Here, we show that pyrimethamine does not significantly affect STAT3 phosphorylation, nuclear translocation, or DNA binding at concentrations sufficient to inhibit STAT3 transcriptional activity, suggesting a potentially novel mechanism of inhibition. To identify the direct molecular target of pyrimethamine and further elucidate the mechanism of action, we used a new quantitative proteome profiling approach called proteome integral solubility alteration coupled with a metabolomic analysis. We identified human dihydrofolate reductase as a target of pyrimethamine and demonstrated that the STAT3-inhibitory effects of pyrimethamine are the result of a deficiency in reduced folate downstream of dihydrofolate reductase inhibition, implicating folate metabolism in the regulation of STAT3 transcriptional activity. This study reveals a previously unknown regulatory node of the STAT3 pathway that may be important for the development of novel strategies to treat STAT3-driven cancers.

The Modest Effects of Fact Boxes on Cancer Screening.

As health care becomes increasingly personalized to the needs and values of individual patients, informational interventions that aim to inform and debias consumer decision-making are likely to become important tools. In a randomized controlled experiment, we explore the effects of providing participants with published fact boxes on the benefits and harms of common cancer screening procedures. Female participants were surveyed about breast cancer screening by mammography, while male participants were surveyed about prostate cancer screening by prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. For these screening procedures, we expect consumers to have overly optimistic prior beliefs about the benefits and harms. We find that participants update their beliefs about the net benefits of screening modestly, but we observe little change in their stated preferences to seek screening. Participants who scored higher on a numeracy test updated their beliefs about screening benefits more in response to the fact boxes than did participants who scored lower on the numeracy test.

Reflecting on 20 years of breast cancer modeling in CISNET: Recommendations for future cancer systems modeling efforts.

Since 2000, the National Cancer Institute's Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) modeling teams have developed and applied microsimulation and statistical models of breast cancer. Here, we illustrate the use of collaborative breast cancer multilevel systems modeling in CISNET to demonstrate the flexibility of systems modeling to address important clinical and policy-relevant questions. Challenges and opportunities of future systems modeling are also summarized. The 6 CISNET breast cancer models embody the key features of systems modeling by incorporating numerous data sources and reflecting tumor, person, and health system factors that change over time and interact to affect the burden of breast cancer. Multidisciplinary modeling teams have explored alternative representations of breast cancer to reveal insights into breast cancer natural history, including the role of overdiagnosis and race differences in tumor characteristics. The models have been used to compare strategies for improving the balance of benefits and harms of breast cancer screening based on personal risk factors, including age, breast density, polygenic risk, and history of Down syndrome or a history of childhood cancer. The models have also provided evidence to support the delivery of care by simulating outcomes following clinical decisions about breast cancer treatment and estimating the relative impact of screening and treatment on the United States population. The insights provided by the CISNET breast cancer multilevel modeling efforts have informed policy and clinical guidelines. The 20 years of CISNET modeling experience has highlighted opportunities and challenges to expanding the impact of systems modeling. Moving forward, CISNET research will continue to use systems modeling to address cancer control issues, including modeling structural inequities affecting racial disparities in the burden of breast cancer. Future work will also leverage the lessons from team science, expand resource sharing, and foster the careers of early stage modeling scientists to ensure the sustainability of these efforts.