Treatment strategy after noncurative endoscopic resection for early gastric cancers in patients aged ≥ 85 years: a multicenter retrospective study in a highly aged area of Japan.

BACKGROUND: The guidelines recommend additional gastrectomy after noncurative endoscopic resection for early gastric cancers (EGCs). However, no additional treatment might be acceptable in some patients aged ≥ 85 years. We aimed to identify this patient group using the data in a highly aged area. METHODS: We enrolled patients aged ≥ 85 years after noncurative endoscopic resection for EGCs at 30 institutions of the Tohoku district in Japan between 2002 and 2017. Treatment selection and prognosis after noncurative endoscopic resection were investigated. Fourteen candidates were evaluated using the Cox model to identify risk factors for poor overall survival (OS) in patients with no additional treatment. RESULTS: Of 1065 patients aged ≥ 85 years, 143 underwent noncurative endoscopic resection. Despite the guidelines' recommendation, 88.8% of them underwent no additional treatment. The 5-year OS rates in those with additional gastrectomy and those with no additional treatment were 63.1 and 65.2%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed independent risk factors for poor OS in patients with no additional treatment were the high-risk category in the eCura system (hazard ratio [HR], 2.91), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) ≥ 3 (HR, 2.78), and male (HR, 2.04). In patients with no additional treatment, nongastric cancer-specific survival was low (69.0% in 5 years), whereas disease-specific survival rates were very high in the low- and intermediate-risk categories of the eCura system (100.0 and 97.1%, respectively, in 5 years). CONCLUSIONS: No additional treatment may be acceptable in the low- and intermediate-risk categories of the eCura system in patients aged ≥ 85 years with noncurative endoscopic resection for EGCs.

Prediction model of 3-year survival after endoscopic submucosal dissection for early gastric cancer in elderly patients aged ≥ 85 years: EGC-2 model.

PURPOSE: Little is known about the prognostic factors for survival after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) in elderly patients with early gastric cancer (EGC). The aim of this study is to determine prognostic factors and a prediction model of 3-year survival after ESD for EGC in patients aged ≥ 85 years. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated the clinical outcomes of 740 patients with EGC aged ≥ 85 years, who were treated by ESD at 30 institutions in Japan. Overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Prediction models for 3-year OS after ESD were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model based on Uno's C-statistics. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 309 patients died of any cause and 10 patients died of gastric cancer. OS and DSS after 3 years were 82.7% and 99.2%, respectively. No significant differences in OS were found among curability categories. The Cox proportional hazards model revealed the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) and the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) to be predictors of 3-year survival. We established a final model (EGC-2 model) expressed by GNRI - (2.2×CCI) with a cutoff value of 96. The overall survival rate was significantly lower in the model value < 96 group than in the model value ≥ 96 group (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The prediction model using GNRI and CCI will be useful to support decision-making for the treatment of EGC in elderly patients aged ≥ 85 years.