Estimation of trajectory of protective efficacy in infectious disease prevention trials using recurrent event times.

In studies of infectious disease prevention, the level of protective efficacy of medicinal products such as vaccines and prophylactic drugs tends to vary over time. Many products require administration of multiple doses at scheduled times, as opposed to one-off or continual intervention. Accurate information on the trajectory of the level of protective efficacy over time facilitates informed clinical recommendations and implementation strategies, for example, with respect to the timing of administration of the doses. Based on concepts from pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling, we propose a non-linear function for modeling the trajectory after each dose. The cumulative effect of multiple doses of the products is captured by an additive series of the function. The model has the advantages of parsimony and interpretability, while remaining flexible in capturing features of the trajectories. We incorporate this series into the Andersen-Gill model for analysis of recurrent event time data and compare it with alternative parametric and non-parametric functions. We use data on clinical malaria disease episodes from a trial of four doses of an anti-malarial drug combination for chemoprevention to illustrate, and evaluate the performance of the methods using simulation. The proposed method out-performed the alternatives in the analysis of real data in terms of Akaike and Bayesian Information Criterion. It also accurately captured the features of the protective efficacy trajectory such as the area under curve in simulations. The proposed method has strong potential to enhance the evaluation of disease prevention measures and improve their implementation strategies.

Paediatric actinomycosis: A 16-year, single-institution retrospective review of cases.

AIM: Actinomycosis is a rare subacute to chronic granulomatous infection which can mimic other infectious or malignant diseases. This study examined the epidemiology and treatment outcome of actinomycosis in children. METHODS: A retrospective study on children admitted for actinomycosis in a tertiary paediatric hospital in Singapore, from January 2004 to December 2020. Clinical profile, therapeutic interventions and outcomes were examined. RESULTS: A total of 10 patients were identified; 7 were female. The median age at first presentation was 9.8 years (range 4.7-15.7). The most common presenting symptom was fever (n = 6, 60%), followed by facial or neck swelling (n = 3, 30%) and ear pain (n = 3, 30%). Actinomycosis occurred predominantly in the orocervicofacial region (n = 6, 60%). Four patients (40%) had preceding dental infections in the form of dental caries or gingivitis. One patient had poorly controlled insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. Actinomycosis was confirmed via culture in four patients, histopathology in four patients and both methods in two patients. All except one patient (n = 9, 90%) underwent surgical procedures. All patients received ampicillin or amoxicillin/clavulanate or other beta-lactams, for a median duration of 6.5 months (range 1.5-14). Complications included osteomyelitis (n = 4, 40%), mastoiditis (n = 2, 20%), brain abscess (n = 1, 10%) and recurrent neck abscess (n = 1, 10%). There was no mortality and all patients achieved complete resolution. CONCLUSIONS: Paediatric actinomycosis was rare in our 16-year review, but had a high complication rate. It can occur in immunocompetent patients, and dental infection was the predominant risk factor identified. Prognosis was excellent after surgical intervention and appropriate antimicrobial therapy.

Novel Coronavirus 2019 Transmission Risk in Educational Settings.

Transmission risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in schools is unknown. Our investigations, especially in preschools, could not detect SARS-CoV-2 transmission despite screening of symptomatic and asymptomatic children. The data suggest that children are not the primary drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools and could help inform exit strategies for lifting of lockdowns.

Respiratory viral infections in hospitalised paediatric patients in the tropics.

AIM: Respiratory viruses are a huge disease burden globally. An understanding of the seasonal trends and the ability to predict peak periods of respiratory virus disease incidence is useful for clinical care. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of paediatric hospitalizations of laboratory-confirmed viral respiratory tract infections in KK Women's and Children's Hospital, Singapore, from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2016. Standard direct immunofluorescence was used to detect respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A and B viruses, parainfluenza 1, 2 and 3 viruses, metapneumovirus and adenovirus. RESULTS: A total of 97 840 specimens were analysed with a positive detection rate of 23.8%. RSV made up the largest proportion (42% of the total positive results), predominating between May to September. Influenza A had two peaks, June to July and December to January. Type 3 was the most common parainfluenza virus and showed annually recurring peaks. In contrast, parainfluenza 1 and 2, metapneumovirus and adenovirus had a biennial pattern. The test of seasonality detected identifiable seasonality for RSV and parainfluenza 3 virus. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, respiratory viruses have different and overlapping seasonality in tropical Singapore. Respiratory virus testing for patients admitted for acute respiratory infection is useful to target antiviral therapies and appropriate infection control practices.

DISSEMINATED BACILLUS-CALMETTE-GUÉRIN INFECTIONS AND PRIMARY IMMUNODEFICIENCY DISORDERS IN SINGAPORE: A SINGLE CENTER 15-YEAR RETROSPECTIVE REVIEW.

BACKGROUND: Disseminated Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) disease (BCGosis) is a classical feature of children with primary immunodeficiency disorders (PIDs). METHODS: A 15-year retrospective review was conducted in KK Women's and Children's Hospital in Singapore, from January 2003 to October 2017. RESULTS: Ten patients were identified, the majority male (60.0%). The median age at presentation of symptoms of BCG infections was 3.8 (0.8 - 7.4) months. All the patients had likely underlying PIDS - four with Severe Combined Immunodeficiency (SCID), three with Mendelian Susceptibility to Mycobacterial Diseases (MSMD), one with Anhidrotic Ectodermal Dysplasia with Primary Immunodeficiency (EDA-ID), one with combined immunodeficiency (CID), and one with STAT-1 gain-of-function mutation. Definitive BCGosis was confirmed in all patients by the identification of Mycobacterium bovis subsp BCG from microbiological cultures. The susceptibility profiles of Mycobacterium bovis subsp BCG are as follows: Rifampicin (88.9%), Isoniazid (44.47%), Ethambutol (100.0%), Streptomycin (100.0%), Kanamycin (100.0%), Ethionamide (25.0%), and Ofloxacin (100.0%). Four patients (40.0%) received a three-drug regimen. Five patients (50.0%) underwent hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT), of which three (60%) have recovered. Overall mortality was 50.0%. CONCLUSION: Disseminated BCG disease (BCGosis) should prompt immunology evaluation to determine the diagnosis of the immune defect. A three-drug regimen is adequate for treatment if the patient undergoes early HSCT.

Epidemiology of Adenovirus Infections and Outcomes of Cidofovir Treatment in Severely Ill Children.

BACKGROUND: An increase in human adenovirus (HAdV) infections among hospitalized children in Singapore was observed since 2013. Young age (<2 years) and significant comorbidities have been associated with severe HAdV infections which can result in significant morbidity and mortality. Cidofovir (CDV) has been used to treat severe HAdV infections despite limited data and efficacy. METHODS: This is a retrospective, observational review of infants and children 1 month to 17 years of age with laboratory-confirmed severe HAdV infection, admitted to a pediatric tertiary care hospital in Singapore between January 2013 and September 2017. Severe infection was defined as requiring intensive care unit or high dependency care at any point during hospital admission. Clinical characteristics, potential risk factors for mortality, as well as the outcome of cases treated with CDV were examined. RESULTS: A total of 1167 children were admitted for HAdV infection, of which 85 (7.3%) were severe. For severe infections, the median age was 1.5 years (interquartile range: 0.72-3.2 years). The majority had comorbidities (69.4%) and presented with pneumonia (32.9%). Genotypes HAdV-7 (29.4%) and HAdV-3 (27.0%) were the most common HAdV genotypes identified. Thirteen (15.3%) patients died. Patients who died had a higher proportion of existing neurologic comorbidity (46.2% vs. 13.9%; P = 0.014) and presentation with pneumonia (69.2% vs. 26.4%; P = 0.008) compared with survivors. Patients who presented with pneumonia had a higher risk of 30-day mortality (odds ratio 4.3, 95% confidence interval: 1.0-28.6; P < 0.05). CDV was administered to 17 (20%) children for mainly viremia (47.1%) and/or pneumonia (41.2%). Mortality rate was 41.2% for severe HAdV cases treated with CDV. A significant proportion of patients who died when compared with recovered patients presented with pneumonia (6 of 7, 85.7% vs 1 of 10, 10%; P = 0.004). All 8 patients who had viremia received CDV and survived. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality can be high in pediatric patients with severe HAdV infections. HAdV-7 and HAdV-3 were the most common genotypes identified in our cohort with severe HAdV infection. Pneumonia is a potential risk factor for mortality in severe HAdV infections in our cohort. Early CDV administration may be considered in patients with severe HAdV infection and existing comorbidities but more studies are required.

Personal level exposure and hazard potential of particulate matter during haze and non-haze periods in Singapore.

Severe haze episodes originating from biomass burning are common in Southeast Asia. However, there is a paucity of data on the personal exposure and characteristics of Particulate Matter (PM) present in ambient air during haze and non-haze periods. Aims of this study were to monitor 24 h ambulatory exposure to PM among school children in Singapore; characterize haze and non-haze PM for their physicochemical properties, cytotoxicity and inflammatory potential, using bronchial epithelial cell culture model (BEAS-2B). Forty-six children had ambulatory PM exposure monitored using portable Aethalometer and their hourly activity recorded. The mean (±SE) PM exposure on a typical school day was 3343 (±174.4) ng/m3/min. Higher PM exposure was observed during haze periods and during commuting to and from the school. Characterization of PM collected showed a drastic increase in the proportion of ultrafine particle (UFP) in haze PM. These PM fraction showed higher level of sulphur, potassium and trace metals in comparison to those collected during non-haze periods. Dose dependent increases in abiotic reactive oxygen species generation, activation of NF-κB and cytotoxicity were observed for both haze and non-haze PM. Generally, haze PM induced significantly higher release of IL-6, IL-8 and TNFα by BEAS-2B cells in comparison to non-haze PM. In summary, this study provides experimental evidence for higher PM exposure during haze period which has the potential to elicit oxidative stress and pro-inflammatory cytokine release from airway epithelial cells.

Epstein-Barr Virus Seroprevalence and Force of Infection in a Multiethnic Pediatric Cohort, Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) spreads through bodily fluids, especially saliva, and can cause infectious mononucleosis. EBV immunity and infection status can be assessed by testing EBV viral capsid antigen and nuclear antigen (EBNA) antibodies in blood. In this study, we investigated the seroprevalence and force of infection (FOI) of EBV antibodies among children and young people in 3 ethnic groups in Singapore. METHODS: Eight hundred ninety-six residual serum samples at a tertiary hospital were tested for viral capsid antigen (IgG and IgM) and EBNA IgG antibodies using Abbott Architect assays. We calculated the EBV seroprevalence using catalytic models to estimate the EBV force of infection from age-stratified seroprevalence data, both overall and by ethnic group. RESULTS: Overall seropositivity was 68.3% (n = 612). Seropositivity was higher in Malays (81.8%) compared with both Chinese (64.2%) and Indians (58.4%). EBV FOI was consistently higher in Malays, with an estimated annual rate of seroconversion of 25% in children 1 year, of age compared with 14% among Chinese and Indians at the same age. CONCLUSIONS: The seroprevalence patterns of EBV antibodies in the Chinese and Indian, but not Malay children in Singapore by 19 years of age resemble those previously reported in developed countries. Ideally, any future EBV vaccination strategy would need to target infants <1 year of age for maximum population benefit.

Burden, Etiology, and Risk Factors of Respiratory Virus Infections Among Symptomatic Preterm Infants in the Tropics: A Retrospective Single-Center Cohort Study.

Background: The burden of respiratory viral infections (RVIs) among preterm infants in the first few years of life, especially those living in the tropics with year-long transmissions of respiratory viruses, remains unknown. We aimed to describe the clinical epidemiology and associated risk factors for RVIs among symptomatic preterm infants ≤32 weeks up to 2 years of life. Methods: We performed a data linkage analysis of clinical and hospital laboratory databases for preterm infants born at KK Women's and Children's Hospital, Singapore, from 2005 to 2015. RVI episodes during initial admission and subsequent hospital readmissions were included. Results: Of 1854 infants in the study, 270 (14.5%) infants were diagnosed with at least 1 RVI. A total of 285 (85.3%) episodes were diagnosed postdischarge, with the highest risk for RVIs being from 3 to 5 months of age. The incidence of RVI in this population was 116 per 1000 infant-years and respiratory syncytial virus was the main overall causative pathogen. Infants with RVIs were more likely to be born at ≤27 weeks' gestational age (odds ratio [OR], 1.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-2.3), to have received postnatal steroids (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.0-2.1), and to be diagnosed with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.4). Conclusions: The burden of RVIs is high in preterm infants in the tropics, affecting >1 of 10 infants born at ≤32 weeks' gestation before 2 years of age. Respiratory syncytial virus was the main causative pathogen identified. Risk factors for RVI included extremely low gestational age, receipt of postnatal steroids, and bronchopulmonary dysplasia.

Age-specific effectiveness of an oil-in-water adjuvanted pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine against confirmed infection in high risk groups in England.

BACKGROUND: The use of a squalene-containing (AS03) pandemic vaccine for high-risk groups in England allowed vaccine effectiveness (VE) of such novel oil-in-water adjuvanted vaccine to be evaluated. METHODS: Cases of laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1)2009 influenza in England between November 2009 and January 2010 were followed up for history of pandemic (H1N1)2009 or 2009/10 seasonal influenza vaccination and relevant comorbidities. Controls were patients similarly tested but negative for the virus. We estimated pandemic (H1N1)2009 VE from the relative reduction in the odds of confirmed pandemic (H1N1)2009 infection between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals after adjustment for confounders. RESULTS: A total of 933 cases and 1220 controls were analyzed. VE from ≥ 14 days was 62% (95% CI 33% to 78%) with protection from 7 to 13 days post-vaccination (59%, 95% CI 12% to 81%). VE from ≥ 14 days differed by age (P = .03) being 77% (11% to 94%) in children <10 years, 100% (80% to 100%) in 10-24-year olds, 22% (-153% to 76%) in 25-49-year olds, and 41% (-71% to 80%) in 50-plus-year-olds. CONCLUSION: Use of oil-in-water adjuvant contributed to a high VE with reduced antigen dosage in children and young adults. Our VE estimate supports the serological correlates of protection used for licensure in these age groups. However, the immunological basis of disappointing VE in older adults merits investigation.

Immunogenicity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine in children with cancer in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Children with cancer have an increased susceptibility to influenza infection. The objective of this study was to assess the immunogenicity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine in children with cancer. METHODS: Children were recruited from the Royal Marsden Hospital, England, during November 2009. The vaccination schedule consisted of 2 doses of an AS03(B)-adjuvanted vaccine given at days 0 and 21. Serological analysis was performed on blood samples obtained at day 0 and day 42. The primary immunological end point was the seroconversion rate, which was defined as the proportion of subjects with an individual 4-fold increase in hemagglutination inhibition titer and a postvaccination hemagglutination inhibition titer ≥1:32. RESULTS: Fifty-four children with a median age of 6.3 years (range, 1.4-16.6 years) were vaccinated and had samples taken for serological analysis. Twenty-four (44.4%) of 54 children demonstrated seroconversion. Seroconversion rates were 33.3% (9 of 27) among children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, 36.4% (4 of 11) among those with lymphoma or other leukemias, 66.7% (6 of 9) among those with brain tumors, and 71.4% (5 of 7) among those with other solid tumors. Seroconversion occurred in 4 (28.6%) of 14 children receiving acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance therapy. Univariate analysis showed significantly higher responses among children with solid tumors, compared with those with hematological malignancies (11 [68.8%] of 16 vs 13 [34.2%] of 38; P = .03), and among those not receiving treatment, compared with those receiving treatment (7 [87.5%] of 8 vs 17 [37.0%] of 46; P = .02). Multivariable analysis showed that age, cancer type, and lymphopenia did not influence seroconversion rates. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that this AS03(B)-adjuvanted pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine can induce limited but useful protective immune responses in children with cancer.