Spatio-temporal patterns of excess mortality from non-COVID causes of death in the United States, march-December 2020.

Objectives To estimate the burden of excess mortality from 17 underlying causes of death between March-December 2020 in the United States, and to compare trends in excess deaths from non-COVID causes vs. from COVID-19. Methods Using time series models, we estimated monthly counts of all-cause and cause-specific excess deaths. We stratified by geographic region and compared temporal trends in excess deaths from non-COVID causes to trends in deaths attributed to COVID-19. Results Of approximately 500,000 excess deaths, 70% were attributed to COVID-19. We observed increases in several underlying causes of death, ranging from a 3% increase in kidney disease deaths to a 24% increase in homicides, as well as decreases in deaths from cancer (-0.3%), influenza and pneumonia (-2%), chronic lower respiratory disease (-3%), and suicide (-7%). Trends in excess deaths from cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and Alzheimer's disease closely mirrored trends in deaths from COVID-19. Trends in excess liver disease, homicide, suicide, and motor vehicle accident deaths were negatively correlated with trends in deaths from COVID-19. There was wide regional variation in excess death rates for some causes of death, including a disproportionate increase in homicide and motor vehicle accident deaths in the Great Lakes, and a sustained reduction in cancer deaths in the Mideast and New England. Conclusions Increases in cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and Alzheimer's disease deaths from March-December 2020 likely reflect healthcare system disruptions or acute complications of COVID-19. Excess deaths from homicide and liver disease are more likely to reflect social and economic effects of the emerging pandemic, or other separate causes.

Evaluating Clinic-Based Interventions to Reduce Racial Differences in Mortality Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Mortality remains elevated among Black versus White adults receiving human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care in the United States. We evaluated the effects of hypothetical clinic-based interventions on this mortality gap. METHODS: We computed 3-year mortality under observed treatment patterns among >40 000 Black and >30 000 White adults entering HIV care in the United States from 1996 to 2019. We then used inverse probability weights to impose hypothetical interventions, including immediate treatment and guideline-based follow-up. We considered 2 scenarios: "universal" delivery of interventions to all patients and "focused" delivery of interventions to Black patients while White patients continued to follow observed treatment patterns. RESULTS: Under observed treatment patterns, 3-year mortality was 8% among White patients and 9% among Black patients, for a difference of 1 percentage point (95% confidence interval [CI], .5-1.4). The difference was reduced to 0.5% under universal immediate treatment (95% CI, -.4% to 1.3%) and to 0.2% under universal immediate treatment combined with guideline-based follow-up (95% CI, -1.0% to 1.4%). Under the focused delivery of both interventions to Black patients, the Black-White difference in 3-year mortality was -1.4% (95% CI, -2.3% to -.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical interventions, particularly those focused on enhancing the care of Black patients, could have significantly reduced the mortality gap between Black and White patients entering HIV care from 1996 to 2019.

Five-Year Mortality for Adults Entering Human Immunodeficiency Virus Care Under Universal Early Treatment Compared With the General US Population.

BACKGROUND: Mortality among adults with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains elevated over those in the US general population, even in the years after entry into HIV care. We explore whether the elevation in 5-year mortality would have persisted if all adults with HIV had initiated antiretroviral therapy within 3 months of entering care. METHODS: Among 82 766 adults entering HIV care at North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration clinical sites in the United States, we computed mortality over 5 years since entry into HIV care under observed treatment patterns. We then used inverse probability weights to estimate mortality under universal early treatment. To compare mortality with those for similar individuals in the general population, we used National Center for Health Statistics data to construct a cohort representing the subset of the US population matched to study participants on key characteristics. RESULTS: For the entire study period (1999-2017), the 5-year mortality among adults with HIV was 7.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.6%-8.2%) higher than expected based on the US general population. Under universal early treatment, the elevation in mortality for people with HIV would have been 7.2% (95% CI: 5.8%-8.6%). In the most recent calendar period examined (2011-2017), the elevation in mortality for people with HIV was 2.6% (95% CI: 2.0%-3.3%) under observed treatment patterns and 2.1% (.0%-4.2%) under universal early treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Expanding early treatment may modestly reduce, but not eliminate, the elevation in mortality for people with HIV.

A new smoking cessation 'cascade' among women with or at risk for HIV infection.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to define a smoking cessation 'cascade' among USA women with and without HIV and examine differences by sociodemographic characteristics. DESIGN: An observational cohort study using data from smokers participating in the Women's Interagency HIV Study between 2014 and 2019. METHODS: We followed 1165 women smokers with and without HIV from their first study visit in 2014 or 2015 until an attempt to quit smoking within approximately 3 years of follow-up, initial cessation (i.e. no restarting smoking within approximately 6 months of a quit attempt), and sustained cessation (i.e. no restarting smoking within approximately 12 months of a quit attempt). Using the Aalen-Johansen estimator, we estimated the cumulative probability of achieving each step, accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: Forty-five percent of smokers attempted to quit, 27% achieved initial cessation, and 14% achieved sustained cessation with no differences by HIV status. Women with some post-high school education were more likely to achieve each step than those with less education. Outcomes did not differ by race. Thirty-six percent [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 31-42] of uninsured women attempted to quit compared with 47% (95% CI: 44-50) with Medicaid and 49% (95% CI: 41-59) with private insurance. CONCLUSION: To decrease smoking among USA women with and without HIV, targeted, multistage interventions, and increased insurance coverage are needed to address shortfalls along this cascade.

The burden of HIV among female sex workers, men who have sex with men and transgender women in Haiti: results from the 2016 Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts (PLACE) study.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the higher risk of HIV among female sex workers (FSWs), men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW), these populations are under-represented in the literature on HIV in Haiti. Here, we present the first nationally representative estimates of HIV prevalence and the first care and treatment cascade for FSWs, MSM and TGW in Haiti. We also examine the social determinants of HIV prevalence in these groups and estimate FSW and MSM population size in Haiti. METHODS: Data were collected between April 2016 and February 2017 throughout the 10 geographical departments of Haiti. The Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts (PLACE) method was used to: (1) recruit participants for a behavioural survey; (2) provide rapid testing, counselling and linkage to care for syphilis and HIV; and (3) measure viral load using dried blood spots for participants testing HIV positive. RESULTS: Study participants included 990 FSWs, 520 MSM and 109 TGW. HIV prevalence was estimated at 7.7% (95% CI 6.2%, 9.6%) among FSWs, 2.2% (0.9%, 5.3%) among MSM and 27.6% (5.0%, 73.5%) among TGW. Of participants who tested positive for syphilis, 17% of FSWs, 19% of MSM and 74% of TGW were co-infected with HIV. Economic instability and intimate partner violence (IPV) were significantly associated with HIV among MSM; food insecurity, economic instability and history of rape were significantly associated with HIV among TGW. Fewer than one-third of participants living with HIV knew their status, and more than a quarter of those who knew their status were not on treatment. While approximately four in five FSW and MSM participants on treatment for HIV were virally suppressed, viral suppression was less common among TGW participants at only 46%. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates a need for targeted interventions to prevent and treat HIV among key populations in Haiti. Potential high-impact interventions may include venue-based, peer navigator-led outreach and testing for HIV and syphilis and improving screening and case management for structural violence and IPV. TGW are in urgent need of such interventions due to our observations of alarmingly high HIV prevalence and low frequency of HIV viral suppression among TGW.