New score to predict COVID-19 progression in vaccine and early treatment era: the COVID-19 Sardinian Progression Score (CSPS).

BACKGROUND: Several scores aimed at predicting COVID-19 progression have been proposed. As the variables vaccination and early SARS-CoV-2 treatment were systematically excluded from the prognostic scores, the present study's objective was to develop a new model adapted to the current epidemiological scenario. METHODS: We included all patients evaluated by the Infectious Disease Unit in Sassari, with SARS-CoV-2 infection and without signs of respiratory failure at the first evaluation (P/F > 300). Disease progression was defined by the prescription of supplemental oxygen. In addition, variables related to demographics, vaccines, comorbidities, symptoms, CT scans, blood tests, and therapies were collected. Multivariate logistic regression modelling was performed to determine factors associated with progression; any variable with significant univariate test or clinical relevance was selected as a candidate for multivariate analysis. Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness of fit statistic was calculated. Odds ratio values were used to derive an integer score for developing an easy-to-use progression risk score. The discrimination performance of the risk index was determined using the AUC, and the best cut-off point, according to the Youden index, sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, and likelihood ratio, was chosen. RESULTS: 1145 patients [median (IQR) age 74 (62-83) years; 53.5% males] were enrolled; 336 (29.3%) had disease progression. Patients with a clinical progression were older and showed more comorbidities; furthermore, they were less vaccinated and exposed to preventive therapy. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, age ≥ 60 years, COPD, dementia, haematological tumours, heart failure, exposure to no or one vaccine dose, fever, dyspnoea, GGO, consolidation, ferritin, De Ritis ≥ 1.2, LDH, and no exposure to early anti-SARS-CoV-2 treatment were associated with disease progression. The final risk score ranged from 0 to 45. The ROC curve analysis showed an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI 0.90-0.93) with a 93.7% specificity and 72.9% sensitivity. Low risk was defined when the cut-off value was less than 23. Three risk levels were identified: low (0-23 points), medium (24-35), and high (≥ 36). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of patients with progression increases with high scores: the assessment of the risk could be helpful for clinicians to plan appropriate therapeutic strategies.

Reduced risk of death in people with SARS-CoV-2 infection treated with remdesivir: a nested case-control study.

INTRODUCTION: Since the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, several treatment options have been proposed (e.g. steroids, heparin, antivirals and monoclonal antibodies). Remdesivir was the first antiviral approved for the treatment of COVID-19, even though controversial evidence exists concerning the efficacy. Therefore, we aimed to conduct a study to evaluate whether the use of remdesivir was associated with lower mortality in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study of a retrospective cohort collecting medical records of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted in the infectious Disease Unit of Sassari University Hospital (S.C. Clinica di Malattie Infettive, AOU di Sassari, Italy), or in the Infectious Disease Unit of Foggia (AOU "Ospedali Riuniti" Foggia), between 1 July 2020 and 10 November 2021. The outcome considered was death; thus, we matched death (cases) to survivors (controls) by sex and age (1:1). RESULTS: We included in the study 342 patients, with 171 deaths (cases) and 171 survivors (controls). Remdesivir was administered to 60 people in the control group and to 18 people in the case group (35.1% vs. 10.5%, p < .0001). In the multivariate analysis, treatment with remdesivir and heparin was associated with lower mortality (OR: 0.19 [95% CI :0.10-0.38], p <.0001; OR: 0.39 [95% CI: 0.21-0.74] p = .004, respectively). On the contrary, diabetes, oxygen therapy and CPAP/NIV were associated with higher mortality. CONCLUSION: Our study showed lower mortality in people with SARS-CoV-2 infection treated with remdesivir.

Impact of Early SARS-CoV-2 Antiviral Therapy on Disease Progression.

Since the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, several treatments have been proposed to prevent the progression of the disease. Currently, three antiviral (molnupiravir, nirmaltrevir/r, remdesivir) and two monoclonal antibodies (casirivimab/imdevimab and sotrovimab) are available in Italy. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the presence of risk factors associated with disease progression. We conducted a retrospective cohort study, including all patients with a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 evaluated between 01/01/2022 ad 10/05/2022 by our Unit of Infectious Diseases in Sassari. We defined disease progression as the necessity of starting O2 therapy. According to AIFA (Italian Medicines Agency) indications, preventive treatment was prescribed in patients with recent symptoms onset (≤five days), no need for oxygen supplementation, and risk factors for disease progression. Subgroup differences in quantitative variables were evaluated using Student's t-test. Pearson chi-square or Fisher's exact tests were used to assess differences for qualitative variables. Multivariate logistic regression modelling was performed to determine factors associated with progression. A two-tailed p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. All statistical analyses were performed with STATA version 17 (StataCorp, College Station, TX, USA). We included 1145 people with SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis, of which 336 (29.3%) developed severe disease with oxygen supplementation. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, age, dementia, haematologic tumors, heart failure, dyspnoea or fever at first evaluation, having ground glass opacities or consolidation at the first CT scan, and bacteria coinfection were associated with an increased risk of disease progression. Vaccination (at least two doses) and early treatment with antiviral or monoclonal antibodies were associated with a lower risk of disease progression. In conclusion, our study showed that vaccination and early treatment with antiviral and/or monoclonal antibodies significantly reduce the risk of disease progression.