Measurable Residual FLT3 Internal Tandem Duplication Before Allogeneic Transplant for Acute Myeloid Leukemia.

Importance: Persistence of FLT3 internal tandem duplication (ITD) in adults with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in first complete remission (CR) prior to allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) is associated with increased relapse and death after transplant, but the association between the level of measurable residual disease (MRD) detected and clinical outcome is unknown. Objective: To examine the association between pre-allogeneic HCT MRD level with relapse and death posttransplant in adults with AML in first CR. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, DNA sequencing was performed on first CR blood from patients with FLT3-ITD AML transplanted from March 2013 to February 2019. Clinical follow-up was through May 2022. Data were analyzed from October 2022 to December 2023. Exposure: Centralized DNA sequencing for FLT3-ITD in pre-allogeneic HCT first CR blood using a commercially available kit. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were overall survival and cumulative incidence of relapse, with non-relapse-associated mortality as a competing risk post-allogeneic HCT. Kaplan-Meier estimations (log-rank tests), Cox proportional hazards models, and Fine-Gray models were used to estimate the end points. Results: Of 537 included patients with FLT3-ITD AML from the Pre-MEASURE study, 296 (55.1%) were female, and the median (IQR) age was 55.6 (42.9-64.1) years. Using the variant allele fraction (VAF) threshold of 0.01% or greater for MRD positivity, the results closely aligned with those previously reported. With no VAF threshold applied (VAF greater than 0%), 263 FLT3-ITD variants (median [range] VAF, 0.005% [0.0002%-44%]), and 177 patients (33.0%) with positive findings were identified. Multivariable analyses showed that residual FLT3-ITD was the variable most associated with relapse and overall survival, with a dose-dependent correlation. Patients receiving reduced-intensity conditioning without melphalan or nonmyeloablative conditioning had increased risk of relapse and death at any given level of MRD compared with those receiving reduced-intensity conditioning with melphalan or myeloablative conditioning. Conclusions and Relevance: This study provides generalizable and clinically applicable evidence that the detection of residual FLT3-ITD in the blood of adults in first CR from AML prior to allogeneic HCT is associated with an increased risk of relapse and death, particularly for those with a VAF of 0.01% or greater. While transplant conditioning intensification, an intervention not available to all, may help mitigate some of this risk, alternative approaches will be necessary for this high-risk population of patients who are underserved by the current standard of care.

Similar Risk of Kidney Failure among Patients with Blinding Diseases Who Receive Ranibizumab, Aflibercept, and Bevacizumab: An Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics Network Study.

PURPOSE: To characterize the incidence of kidney failure associated with intravitreal anti-VEGF exposure; and compare the risk of kidney failure in patients treated with ranibizumab, aflibercept, or bevacizumab. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study across 12 databases in the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) network. SUBJECTS: Subjects aged ≥ 18 years with ≥ 3 monthly intravitreal anti-VEGF medications for a blinding disease (diabetic retinopathy, diabetic macular edema, exudative age-related macular degeneration, or retinal vein occlusion). METHODS: The standardized incidence proportions and rates of kidney failure while on treatment with anti-VEGF were calculated. For each comparison (e.g., aflibercept versus ranibizumab), patients from each group were matched 1:1 using propensity scores. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of kidney failure while on treatment. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to combine each database's hazard ratio (HR) estimate into a single network-wide estimate. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of kidney failure while on anti-VEGF treatment, and time from cohort entry to kidney failure. RESULTS: Of the 6.1 million patients with blinding diseases, 37 189 who received ranibizumab, 39 447 aflibercept, and 163 611 bevacizumab were included; the total treatment exposure time was 161 724 person-years. The average standardized incidence proportion of kidney failure was 678 per 100 000 persons (range, 0-2389), and incidence rate 742 per 100 000 person-years (range, 0-2661). The meta-analysis HR of kidney failure comparing aflibercept with ranibizumab was 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-1.47; P = 0.45), ranibizumab with bevacizumab 0.95 (95% CI, 0.68-1.32; P = 0.62), and aflibercept with bevacizumab 0.95 (95% CI, 0.65-1.39; P = 0.60). CONCLUSIONS: There was no substantially different relative risk of kidney failure between those who received ranibizumab, bevacizumab, or aflibercept. Practicing ophthalmologists and nephrologists should be aware of the risk of kidney failure among patients receiving intravitreal anti-VEGF medications and that there is little empirical evidence to preferentially choose among the specific intravitreal anti-VEGF agents. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES: Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Distinct Scleroderma Autoantibody Profiles Stratify Patients for Cancer Risk at Scleroderma Onset and During the Disease Course.

OBJECTIVES: We examined whether an array of scleroderma autoantibodies associates with risk of cancer and could be useful tools for risk stratification. METHODS: Scleroderma cancer cases and scleroderma controls without cancer from the Johns Hopkins Scleroderma Center and the University of Pittsburgh Scleroderma Center were studied. Sera were assayed by Lineblot and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for autoantibodies against centromere, topoisomerase 1, RNA polymerase (POLR) 3, PM/Scl, Th/To, NOR90, U3 RNP, Ku, Ro52, U1RNP, and RNPC3. Logistic regression models were constructed to examine whether distinct autoantibodies associated with overall cancer at any time and cancer-associated scleroderma (cancer occurring three years before and after scleroderma onset). The effects of having more than one autoantibody on cancer were further examined using random forest analysis. RESULTS: A total of 676 cases and 687 controls were studied. After adjusting for relevant covariates, anti-POLR3 (odds ratio [OR] 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-2.11) and monospecific anti-Ro52 (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.29-3.74) were associated with an increased overall cancer risk, whereas anticentromere (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.51-0.93) and anti-U1RNP (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.43-0.93) were associated with lower risk. When examining risk of cancer-associated scleroderma, these immune responses remained associated with increased or decreased risk: anti-POLR3 (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.33-3.91), monospecific anti-Ro52 (OR 2.58, 95% CI 1.05-6.30), anticentromere (OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.20-0.74), and anti-U1RNP (OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.11-0.93). Anti-Ro52 plus anti-U1RNP or anti-Th/To was associated with decreased cancer risk compared with anti-Ro52 alone. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that five distinct scleroderma immune responses, alone or in combination, may be useful tools to stratify the risk of cancer for scleroderma patients. Further study examining cancer risk in autoantibody subgroups relative to the general population is warranted.

Measurable Residual IDH1 before Allogeneic Transplant for Acute Myeloid Leukemia.

Measurable residual disease (MRD) in adults with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in complete remission is an important prognostic marker, but detection methodology requires optimization. The persistence of mutated NPM1 or FLT3-ITD in the blood of adult patients with AML in first complete remission (CR1) prior to allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplant (alloHCT) has been established as associated with increased relapse and death after transplant. The prognostic implications of persistence of other common AML-associated mutations, such as IDH1, at this treatment landmark however remains incompletely defined. We performed testing for residual IDH1 variants (IDH1m) in pre-transplant CR1 blood of 148 adult patients undergoing alloHCT for IDH1-mutated AML at a CIBMTR site between 2013-2019. No post-transplant differences were observed between those testing IDH1m positive (n=53, 36%) and negative pre-transplant (overall survival: p = 0.4; relapse: p = 0.5). For patients with IDH1 mutated AML co-mutated with NPM1 and/or FLT3-ITD, only detection of persistent mutated NPM1 and/or FLT3-ITD was associated with significantly higher rates of relapse (p = 0.01). These data, from the largest study to date, do not support the detection of IDH1 mutation in CR1 blood prior to alloHCT as evidence of AML MRD or increased post-transplant relapse risk.

Countrywide Mortality Surveillance for Action in Mozambique: Results from a National Sample-Based Vital Statistics System for Mortality and Cause of Death.

Sub-Saharan Africa lacks timely, reliable, and accurate national data on mortality and causes of death (CODs). In 2018 Mozambique launched a sample registration system (Countrywide Mortality Surveillance for Action [COMSA]-Mozambique), which collects continuous birth, death, and COD data from 700 randomly selected clusters, a nationally representative population of 828,663 persons. Verbal and social autopsy interviews are conducted for COD determination. We analyzed data collected in 2019-2020 to report mortality rates and cause-specific fractions. Cause-specific results were generated using computer-coded verbal autopsy (CCVA) algorithms for deaths among those age 5 years and older. For under-five deaths, the accuracy of CCVA results was increased through calibration with data from minimally invasive tissue sampling. Neonatal and under-five mortality rates were, respectively, 23 (95% CI: 18-28) and 80 (95% CI: 69-91) deaths per 1,000 live births. Mortality rates per 1,000 were 18 (95% CI: 14-21) among age 5-14 years, 26 (95% CI: 20-31) among age 15-24 years, 258 (95% CI: 230-287) among age 25-59 years, and 531 (95% CI: 490-572) among age 60+ years. Urban areas had lower mortality rates than rural areas among children under 15 but not among adults. Deaths due to infections were substantial across all ages. Other predominant causes by age group were prematurity and intrapartum-related events among neonates; diarrhea, malaria, and lower respiratory infections among children 1-59 months; injury, malaria, and diarrhea among children 5-14 years; HIV, injury, and cancer among those age 15-59 years; and cancer and cardiovascular disease at age 60+ years. The COMSA-Mozambique platform offers a rich and unique system for mortality and COD determination and monitoring and an opportunity to build a comprehensive surveillance system.

DNA Sequencing to Detect Residual Disease in Adults With Acute Myeloid Leukemia Prior to Hematopoietic Cell Transplant.

Importance: Preventing relapse for adults with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in first remission is the most common indication for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant. The presence of AML measurable residual disease (MRD) has been associated with higher relapse rates, but testing is not standardized. Objective: To determine whether DNA sequencing to identify residual variants in the blood of adults with AML in first remission before allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant identifies patients at increased risk of relapse and poorer overall survival compared with those without these DNA variants. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this retrospective observational study, DNA sequencing was performed on pretransplant blood from patients aged 18 years or older who had undergone their first allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant during first remission for AML associated with variants in FLT3, NPM1, IDH1, IDH2, or KIT at 1 of 111 treatment sites from 2013 through 2019. Clinical data were collected, through May 2022, by the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research. Exposure: Centralized DNA sequencing of banked pretransplant remission blood samples. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were overall survival and relapse. Day of transplant was considered day 0. Hazard ratios were reported using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results: Of 1075 patients tested, 822 had FLT3 internal tandem duplication (FLT3-ITD) and/or NPM1 mutated AML (median age, 57.1 years, 54% female). Among 371 patients in the discovery cohort, the persistence of NPM1 and/or FLT3-ITD variants in the blood of 64 patients (17.3%) in remission before undergoing transplant was associated with worse outcomes after transplant (2013-2017). Similarly, of the 451 patients in the validation cohort who had undergone transplant in 2018-2019, 78 patients (17.3%) with residual NPM1 and/or FLT3-ITD variants had higher rates of relapse at 3 years (68% vs 21%; difference, 47% [95% CI, 26% to 69%]; HR, 4.32 [95% CI, 2.98 to 6.26]; P < .001) and decreased survival at 3 years (39% vs 63%; difference, -24% [2-sided 95% CI, -39% to -9%]; HR, 2.43 [95% CI, 1.71 to 3.45]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with acute myeloid leukemia in first remission prior to allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant, the persistence of FLT3 internal tandem duplication or NPM1 variants in the blood at an allele fraction of 0.01% or higher was associated with increased relapse and worse survival compared with those without these variants. Further study is needed to determine whether routine DNA-sequencing testing for residual variants can improve outcomes for patients with acute myeloid leukemia.

Cumulative disease damage and anti-PM/Scl antibodies are associated with a heavy burden of calcinosis in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: Ectopic calcification (calcinosis) is a common complication of SSc, but a subset of SSc patients has a heavy burden of calcinosis. We examined whether there are unique risk factors for a heavy burden of calcinosis, as compared with a light burden or no calcinosis. METHODS: We reviewed the medical records of all patients in the Johns Hopkins Scleroderma Center Research Registry with calcinosis to quantify calcinosis burden using pre-specified definitions. We performed latent class analysis to identify SSc phenotypic classes. We used multinomial logistic regression to determine whether latent phenotypic classes and autoantibodies were independent risk factors for calcinosis burden. RESULTS: Of all patients, 29.4% (997/3388) had calcinosis, and 13.5% (130/963) of those with calcinosis had a heavy burden. The latent phenotypic class with predominantly diffuse skin disease and higher disease severity (characterized by pulmonary hypertension, interstitial lung disease, cardiomyopathy, severe RP, gastrointestinal involvement, renal crisis, myopathy and/or tendon friction rubs) was associated with an increased risk of both a heavy burden [odds ratio (OR) 6.92, 95% CI 3.66, 13.08; P < 0.001] and a light burden (OR 2.88, 95% CI 2.11, 3.95; P < 0.001) of calcinosis compared with the phenotypic class with predominantly limited skin disease. Autoantibodies to PM/Scl were strongly associated with a heavy burden of calcinosis (OR 17.31, 95% CI 7.72, 38.81; P < 0.001) and to a lesser degree a light burden of calcinosis (OR 3.59, 95% CI 1.84, 7.00; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Calcinosis burden is associated with cumulative SSc-related tissue damage. Independent of disease severity, autoantibodies to PM/Scl are also associated with a heavy burden of calcinosis.

Evaluation of the Clinical Utility of the Bone Metastases Ensemble Trees for Survival Decision Support Platform (BMETS-DSP): A Case-Based Pilot Assessment.

PURPOSE: The Bone Metastases Ensemble Trees for Survival Decision Support Platform (BMETS-DSP) provides patient-specific survival predictions and evidence-based recommendations to guide multidisciplinary management for symptomatic bone metastases. We assessed the clinical utility of the BMETS-DSP through a pilot prepost design in a simulated clinical environment. METHODS: Ten Radiation Oncology physicians reviewed 55 patient cases at two time points: without and then with the use of BMETS-DSP. Assessment included 12-month survival estimate, confidence in and likelihood of sharing estimates with patients, and recommendations for open surgery, systemic therapy, hospice referral, and radiotherapy (RT) regimen. Paired statistics compared pre- versus post-DSP outcomes. Reported statistical significance is P < .05. RESULTS: Pre- versus post-DSP, overestimation of true minus estimated survival time was significantly reduced (mean difference -2.1 [standard deviation 4.1] v -1 month [standard deviation 3.5]). Prediction accuracy was significantly improved at cut points of < 3 (72 v 79%), ≤ 6 (64 v 71%), and ≥ 12 months (70 v 81%). Median ratings of confidence in and likelihood of sharing prognosis significantly increased. Significantly greater concordance was seen in matching use of 1-fraction RT with the true survival < 3 months (70 v 76%) and < 10-fraction RT with the true survival < 12 months (55 v 62%) and appropriate use of open surgery (47% v 53%), without significant changes in selection of hospice referral or systemic therapy. CONCLUSION: This pilot study demonstrates that BMETS-DSP significantly improved physician survival estimation accuracy, prognostic confidence, likelihood of sharing prognosis, and use of prognosis-appropriate RT regimens in the care of symptomatic bone metastases, supporting future multi-institutional validation of the platform.

Multi-Site Observational Study to Assess Biomarkers for Susceptibility or Resilience to Chronic Pain: The Acute to Chronic Pain Signatures (A2CPS) Study Protocol.

Chronic pain has become a global health problem contributing to years lived with disability and reduced quality of life. Advances in the clinical management of chronic pain have been limited due to incomplete understanding of the multiple risk factors and molecular mechanisms that contribute to the development of chronic pain. The Acute to Chronic Pain Signatures (A2CPS) Program aims to characterize the predictive nature of biomarkers (brain imaging, high-throughput molecular screening techniques, or "omics," quantitative sensory testing, patient-reported outcome assessments and functional assessments) to identify individuals who will develop chronic pain following surgical intervention. The A2CPS is a multisite observational study investigating biomarkers and collective biosignatures (a combination of several individual biomarkers) that predict susceptibility or resilience to the development of chronic pain following knee arthroplasty and thoracic surgery. This manuscript provides an overview of data collection methods and procedures designed to standardize data collection across multiple clinical sites and institutions. Pain-related biomarkers are evaluated before surgery and up to 3 months after surgery for use as predictors of patient reported outcomes 6 months after surgery. The dataset from this prospective observational study will be available for researchers internal and external to the A2CPS Consortium to advance understanding of the transition from acute to chronic postsurgical pain.

Geographic variations in gender differences in cataract surgery volume among a national cohort of ophthalmologists.

PURPOSE: To assess factors associated with gender disparities in cataract surgery volume and evaluate how these differences have changed over time. SETTING: Cataract surgeons in the 2012 to 2018 Medicare database. DESIGN: Retrospective study. METHODS: The association of provider gender with the number of cataract surgeries per office visit billed was assessed with negative binomial regression models, controlling for calendar year, years in practice, hospital affiliation, geographic region, rurality, density of ophthalmologists, and the national percentile of Area Deprivation Index (ADI) score for the practice location. RESULTS: There were 8480 cataract surgeons, most of whom were male (78%). Male surgeons worked in more deprived areas with a higher ADI (median: 40 vs 33, P < .001). Female surgeons performed fewer cataracts per year (140 [95% CI, 126-154] vs 276 [95% CI, 263-288], P < .001) and billed fewer office visits (1038 [95% CI, 1008-1068] vs 1505 [95% CI, 1484-1526], P < .001). In multivariate analysis, the number of cataract surgeries per office visit was greater for males compared with females in all years in the South (average incidence rate ratio 1.80), Midwest (1.50), and West (1.53), but not in the Northeast (1.16). The relative rate of cataract surgeries between male and female surgeons in each region did not change significantly over time from 2012 to 2018 ( P > .05 in each region). CONCLUSIONS: Gender disparities in cataract volume among male and female surgeons have remained unchanged over time from 2012 to 2018. The higher cataract volume among male surgeons may be explained in part by provider practice location. Further studies are needed to better understand and address gender disparities.

Relationship Between Social Determinants of Health and Antihypertensive Medication Adherence in a Medicaid Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the relationship between social determinants of health (SDH) and medication adherence among Medicaid beneficiaries with hypertension. METHODS: We conducted a posthoc subgroup analysis of 3044 adult Medicaid beneficiaries who enrolled in a parent prospective cohort study and had a diagnosis of hypertension based on their Medicaid claims during a 24-month period before study enrollment. We calculated the proportion of days covered by at least one antihypertensive medication during the first 12 months after study enrollment using the prescription claims data. We measured numerous SDH at the time of study enrollment and we categorized our hypertension cohort into 4 social risk groups based on their response profiles to the SDH variables. We compared the mean proportion of days covered by the different levels of the SDH factors. We modeled the odds of being covered by an antihypertensive medication daily throughout the follow-up period by social risk group, adjusted for age, sex, and disease severity using a generalized linear model. RESULTS: The nonrandom sample was predominately Black (93%), female (62%) and had completed high school (77%). The mean proportion of days covered varied significantly by different SDH, such as food insecurity (49%-56%), length of time living at present place (47%-57%), smoking status (50%-56%), etc. Social risk group was a significant predictor of medication adherence. Participants in the 2 groups with the most social risks were 36% (adjusted odds ratio=0.64 [95% CI, 0.53-0.78]) and 20% (adjusted odds ratio=0.80 [95% CI, 0.70-0.93]) less adherent to their hypertension therapy compared with participants in the group with the fewest social risks. CONCLUSIONS: Social risks are associated with lower antihypertensive medication adherence in the Medicaid population.

Improving providers' survival estimates and selection of prognosis- and guidelines-appropriate treatment for patients with symptomatic bone metastases: Development of the Bone Metastases Ensemble Trees for Survival Decision Support Platform.

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: In the management of symptomatic bone metastases, current practice guidelines do not provide clear methodology for selecting palliative radiotherapy (RT) regimens based on specific patient and disease features. Decision support aids may offer an effective means for translating the complex data needed to render individualised treatment decisions, yet no such tools are available for use in this setting. Thus, we describe the development of the Bone Metastases Ensemble Trees for Survival-Decision Support Platform (BMETS-DSP), which aims to optimise selection of evidence-based, individualised palliative RT regimens. METHOD: The Ottawa Decision Support Framework was used as the theoretical basis for development of BMETS-DSP. First, we utilised stakeholder input and review of the literature to assess determinants underlying the provider decision. Based on this assessment and iterative stakeholder feedback, we developed the web-based, provider-facing BMETS-DSP. Consistent with the underlying theoretical framework, our design also included assessment of decision quality using the International Patient Decision Aids Standards (IPDAS) certification checklist. RESULTS: Stakeholder input and review of 54 evidence-based publications identified the following determinants of the provider decision: estimated prognosis, characteristics of the target symptomatic lesion and the primary cancer type, consideration of alternative interventions, access to patient-specific recommendations, and patient preferences. Based on these determinants, we developed the BMETS-DSP that (1) collects patient-specific data, (2) displays an individualised predicted survival curve, and (3) provides case-specific, evidence-based recommendations regarding RT, open surgery, systemic therapy, and hospice referral to aid in the decision-making process. The finalised tool met IPDAS quality requirements. Preliminary results of a pilot assessment suggest impact of clinical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: We describe the successful development of a provider-facing decision support platform to aid in the provision of palliative RT in better alignment with patient and disease features. Impact of the BMETS-DSP on decision outcomes will be further assessed in a randomised, controlled study.

Sex and gender differences in COVID testing, hospital admission, presentation, and drivers of severe outcomes in the DC/Maryland region.

BACKGROUND: Rates of severe illness and mortality from SARS-CoV-2 are greater for males, but the mechanisms for this difference are unclear. Understanding the differences in outcomes between males and females across the age spectrum will guide both public health and biomedical interventions. METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis of SARS-CoV-2 testing and admission data in a health system. Patient-level data were assessed with descriptive statistics and logistic regression modeling was used to identify features associated with increased male risk of severe outcomes. RESULTS: In 213,175 SARS-CoV-2 tests, despite similar positivity rates (8.2%F vs 8.9%M), males were more frequently hospitalized (28%F vs 33%M). Of 2,626 hospitalized individuals, females had less severe presenting respiratory parameters and males had more fever. Comorbidity burden was similar, but with differences in specific conditions. Medications relevant for SARS-CoV-2 were used at similar frequency except tocilizumab (M>F). Males had higher inflammatory lab values. In a logistic regression model, male sex was associated with a higher risk of severe outcomes at 24 hours (odds ratio (OR) 3.01, 95%CI 1.75, 5.18) and at peak status (OR 2.58, 95%CI 1.78,3.74) among 18-49 year-olds. Block-wise addition of potential explanatory variables demonstrated that only the inflammatory labs substantially modified the OR associated with male sex across all ages. CONCLUSION: Higher levels of clinical inflammatory labs are the only features that are associated with the heightened risk of severe outcomes and death for males in COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NA. FUNDING: Hopkins inHealth; COVID-19 Administrative Supplement (HHS Region 3 Treatment Center), Office of the ASPR; NIH/NCI U54CA260492 (SK), NIH/NIA U54AG062333 (SK).

Comparison of Time to Clinical Improvement With vs Without Remdesivir Treatment in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19.

Importance: Clinical effectiveness data on remdesivir are urgently needed, especially among diverse populations and in combination with other therapies. Objective: To examine whether remdesivir administered with or without corticosteroids for treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with more rapid clinical improvement in a racially/ethnically diverse population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective comparative effectiveness research study was conducted from March 4 to August 29, 2020, in a 5-hospital health system in the Baltimore, Maryland, and Washington, DC, area. Of 2483 individuals with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection assessed by polymerase chain reaction, those who received remdesivir were matched to infected individuals who did not receive remdesivir using time-invariant covariates (age, sex, race/ethnicity, Charlson Comorbidity Index, body mass index, and do-not-resuscitate or do-not-intubate orders) and time-dependent covariates (ratio of peripheral blood oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen, blood pressure, pulse, temperature, respiratory rate, C-reactive protein level, complete white blood cell count, lymphocyte count, albumin level, alanine aminotransferase level, glomerular filtration rate, dimerized plasmin fragment D [D-dimer] level, and oxygen device). An individual in the remdesivir group with k days of treatment was matched to a control patient who stayed in the hospital at least k days (5 days maximum) beyond the matching day. Exposures: Remdesivir treatment with or without corticosteroid administration. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was rate of clinical improvement (hospital discharge or decrease of 2 points on the World Health Organization severity score), and the secondary outcome, mortality at 28 days. An additional outcome was clinical improvement and time to death associated with combined remdesivir and corticosteroid treatment. Results: Of 2483 consecutive admissions, 342 individuals received remdesivir, 184 of whom also received corticosteroids and 158 of whom received remdesivir alone. For these 342 patients, the median age was 60 years (interquartile range, 46-69 years), 189 (55.3%) were men, and 276 (80.7%) self-identified as non-White race/ethnicity. Remdesivir recipients had a shorter time to clinical improvement than matched controls without remdesivir treatment (median, 5.0 days [interquartile range, 4.0-8.0 days] vs 7.0 days [interquartile range, 4.0-10.0 days]; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.22-1.79]). Remdesivir recipients had a 28-day mortality rate of 7.7% (22 deaths) compared with 14.0% (40 deaths) among matched controls, but this difference was not statistically significant in the time-to-death analysis (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.38-1.28). The addition of corticosteroids to remdesivir was not associated with a reduced hazard of death at 28 days (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.94; 95% CI, 0.67-5.57). Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparative effectiveness research study of adults hospitalized with COVID-19, receipt of remdesivir was associated with faster clinical improvement in a cohort of predominantly non-White patients. Remdesivir plus corticosteroid administration did not reduce the time to death compared with remdesivir administered alone.

External Validation of the Bone Metastases Ensemble Trees for Survival (BMETS) Machine Learning Model to Predict Survival in Patients With Symptomatic Bone Metastases.

PURPOSE: The Bone Metastases Ensemble Trees for Survival (BMETS) model uses a machine learning algorithm to estimate survival time following consultation for palliative radiation therapy for symptomatic bone metastases (SBM). BMETS was developed at a tertiary-care, academic medical center, but its validity and stability when applied to external data sets are unknown. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients treated with palliative radiation therapy for SBM from May 2013 to May 2016 at two hospital-based community radiation oncology clinics were included, and medical records were retrospectively reviewed to collect model covariates and survival time. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate overall survival from consultation to death or last follow-up. Model discrimination was estimated using time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC), which was calculated using survival predictions from BMETS based on the initial training data set. RESULTS: A total of 216 sites of SBM were treated in 182 patients. Most common histologies were breast (27%), lung (23%), and prostate (23%). Compared with the BMETS training set, the external validation population was older (mean age, 67 v 62 years; P < .001), had more primary breast (27% v 19%; P = .03) and prostate cancer (20% v 12%; P = .01), and survived longer (median, 10.7 v 6.4 months). When the BMETS model was applied to the external data set, tAUC values at 3, 6, and 12 months were 0.82, 0.77, and 0.77, respectively. When refit with data from the combined training and external validation sets, tAUC remained > 0.79. CONCLUSION: BMETS maintained high discriminative ability when applied to an external validation set and when refit with new data, supporting its generalizability, stability, and the feasibility of dynamic modeling.

Baseline and Dynamic Risk Predictors of Appropriate Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator Therapy.

Background Current approaches fail to separate patients at high versus low risk for ventricular arrhythmias owing to overreliance on a snapshot left ventricular ejection fraction measure. We used statistical machine learning to identify important cardiac imaging and time-varying risk predictors. Methods and Results Three hundred eighty-two cardiomyopathy patients (left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35%) underwent cardiac magnetic resonance before primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator insertion. The primary end point was appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator discharge or sudden death. Patient characteristics; serum biomarkers of inflammation, neurohormonal status, and injury; and cardiac magnetic resonance-measured left ventricle and left atrial indices and myocardial scar burden were assessed at baseline. Time-varying covariates comprised interval heart failure hospitalizations and left ventricular ejection fractions. A random forest statistical method for survival, longitudinal, and multivariable outcomes incorporating baseline and time-varying variables was compared with (1) Seattle Heart Failure model scores and (2) random forest survival and Cox regression models incorporating baseline characteristics with and without imaging variables. Age averaged 57±13 years with 28% women, 66% white, 51% ischemic, and follow-up time of 5.9±2.3 years. The primary end point (n=75) occurred at 3.3±2.4 years. Random forest statistical method for survival, longitudinal, and multivariable outcomes with baseline and time-varying predictors had the highest area under the receiver operating curve, median 0.88 (95% CI, 0.75-0.96). Top predictors comprised heart failure hospitalization, left ventricle scar, left ventricle and left atrial volumes, left atrial function, and interleukin-6 level; heart failure accounted for 67% of the variation explained by the prediction, imaging 27%, and interleukin-6 2%. Serial left ventricular ejection fraction was not a significant predictor. Conclusions Hospitalization for heart failure and baseline cardiac metrics substantially improve ventricular arrhythmic risk prediction.

Impact of Improved Biomass and Liquid Petroleum Gas Stoves on Birth Outcomes in Rural Nepal: Results of 2 Randomized Trials.

BACKGROUND: Few randomized trials have assessed the impact of reducing household air pollution from biomass stoves on adverse birth outcomes in low-income countries. METHODS: Two sequential trials were conducted in rural low-lying Nepal. Trial 1 was a cluster-randomized step-wedge trial comparing traditional biomass stoves and improved biomass stoves vented with a chimney. Trial 2 was a parallel household-randomized trial comparing vented biomass stoves and liquid petroleum gas (LPG) stoves with a year's supply of gas. Kitchen particulate matter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5) and carbon monoxide (CO) were assessed before and after stove installation. Prevalent and incident pregnancies were enrolled at baseline and throughout the trials. Birth anthropometry was compared across differing exposure times in pregnancy. RESULTS: In trial 1, the mean 20-hour kitchen PM2.5 concentration was reduced from 1380 µg/m3 to 936 µg/m3. Among infants born before the intervention, mean birth weight and gestational age were 2627 g (SD=443) and 38.8 weeks (SD=3.1), and 39% were low birth weight (LBW), 22% preterm, and 55% small for gestational age (SGA). Adverse birth outcomes were not significantly different with increasing exposure to improved stoves during pregnancy. In trial 2, the mean 20-hour PM2.5 concentration was 885 µg/m3 in households with vented biomass and 442 µg/m3 in those with LPG stoves. Mean birth weight was 2780 g (SD=427) and 2742 g (SD=431), among households with vented and LPG stoves, respectively. Respective percentages for LBW, SGA, and preterm were 23%, 13%, and 42% in the vented stove group and not statistically different from 31%, 17%, and 42% in the LPG group. CONCLUSIONS: Improved biomass or LPG stoves did not reduce adverse birth outcomes. PM2.5 and CO following improved stove installation remained well above the World Health Organization indoor air standard of 25 µg/m3 or intermediate air quality guideline of 37.5 µg/m3. Trials that lower indoor air pollution further are needed.

Developing an Improved Statistical Approach for Survival Estimation in Bone Metastases Management: The Bone Metastases Ensemble Trees for Survival (BMETS) Model.

PURPOSE: To determine whether a machine learning approach optimizes survival estimation for patients with symptomatic bone metastases (SBM), we developed the Bone Metastases Ensemble Trees for Survival (BMETS) to predict survival using 27 prognostic covariates. To establish its relative clinical utility, we compared BMETS with 2 simpler Cox regression models used in this setting. METHODS AND MATERIALS: For 492 bone sites in 397 patients evaluated for palliative radiation therapy (RT) for SBM from January 2007 to January 2013, data for 27 clinical variables were collected. These covariates and the primary outcome of time from consultation to death were used to build BMETS using random survival forests. We then performed Cox regressions as per 2 validated models: Chow's 3-item (C-3) and Westhoff's 2-item (W-2) tools. Model performance was assessed using cross-validation procedures and measured by time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC) for all 3 models. For temporal validation, a separate data set comprised of 104 bone sites treated in 85 patients in 2018 was used to estimate tAUC from BMETS. RESULTS: Median survival was 6.4 months. Variable importance was greatest for performance status, blood cell counts, recent systemic therapy type, and receipt of concurrent nonbone palliative RT. tAUC at 3, 6, and 12 months was 0.83, 0.81, and 0.81, respectively, suggesting excellent discrimination of BMETS across postconsultation time points. BMETS outperformed simpler models at each time, with respective tAUC at each time of 0.78, 0.76, and 0.74 for the C-3 model and 0.80, 0.78, and 0.77 for the W-2 model. For the temporal validation set, respective tAUC was similarly high at 0.86, 0.82, and 0.78. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with SBM, BMETS improved survival predictions versus simpler traditional models. Model performance was maintained when applied to a temporal validation set. To facilitate clinical use, we developed a web platform for data entry and display of BMETS-predicted survival probabilities.