Equitability of Individual and Population Interventions to Reduce Obesity: A Modeling Study in Mexico.

INTRODUCTION: Modeling studies have estimated the potential impact and cost effectiveness of interventions to reduce obesity; few have focused on their equity across socioeconomic groups. This study aims to compare the equitability of individual- and population-level interventions to reduce obesity in Mexico. METHODS: Mathematical models were implemented to estimate the expected effect of 2 sugar-sweetened beverage tax scenarios (10% and 20%) and bariatric surgery, pharmacotherapy, and dietary advice as individual interventions to reduce body weight. Individual interventions were modeled using meta-analytical weight change, inclusion and exclusion criteria, and the probability of access to healthcare services. For the tax, investigators obtained the baseline consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages from the National Health Survey 2012 and applied the reduction in sales observed in 2016 to estimate the caloric change and weight reduction. Implementation costs and cost per person, per kilogram, and equity were calculated for all interventions over a 1-year timeframe. RESULTS: The 20% tax produced the largest estimated increase (4.50%) in normal BMI prevalence, was the most cost effective, and had the largest and most equitable decrease in obesity across socioeconomic categories. Pharmacotherapy and bariatric surgery produced sizable decreases in obesity prevalence (3.68% and 1.18%), particularly among the middle and high socioeconomic groups, whereas dietary advice had the lowest impact on normal and obese categories. CONCLUSIONS: Individual interventions were effective in reducing obesity; yet, they were more expensive and less equitable than population interventions. Obesity in Mexico affects all socioeconomic groups; available interventions need to be carefully analyzed to tailor a national strategy that is both effective and equitable.

Ciclos de trabajo-confinamiento para reducir la transmisión de Covid-19: evidencia y recomendaciones en el contexto de México / Cyclic schedules for working population to reduce Covid-19 transmission: evidence and recommendations for Mexico

Resumen: Este artículo propone intervenciones estructurales dirigidas a la reorganización del trabajo para evitar un repunte de casos de Covid-19, permitiendo la continuidad de la actividad económica. Se resume la evidencia disponible acerca de los ciclos de trabajo-confinamiento y la posible aplicación de ciclos de cuatro días de trabajo por tres de confinamiento (4x3) en el contexto mexicano. También se discuten otras intervenciones como la continuación del teletrabajo en algunos sectores y el escalonamiento de las jornadas de trabajo como medidas complementarias a los ciclos de trabajo-confinamiento. Esta discusión se da en el contexto de alta informalidad y escasos recursos para absorber una pérdida importante de la productividad por las empresas medianas y pequeñas en México. Se considera la necesidad de implementar apoyos para que personas y empresas puedan mitigar pérdidas en salarios y ganancias tanto del sector formal como informal.

Abstract: This paper proposes structural interventions to organize the working population which could be implemented to avoid a new wave of Covid-19 cases without halting economic activity. We summarize the evidence regarding cyclic schedules of work days followed by days in lockdown. We discuss the possible application of cycles of four days of work followed by three in lockdown for the Mexican context. We also discuss two complimentary interventions for these cycles: continuing to work from home for the sectors for which this is possible and staggered work shifts. This discussion takes into account the high informality context and the scarcity of resources to absorb productivity losses in middle and small companies. We consider the need to implement financial help for people and companies to mitigate lost earnings both in the formal and in the informal work sectors.

Mortality attributable to sugar sweetened beverages consumption in Mexico: an update.

BACKGROUND: In 2010, sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) were estimated to cause 12% of all diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and obesity-related cancer deaths in Mexico. Using new risk estimates for SSBs consumption, we aimed to update the fraction of Mexican mortality attributable to SSBs, and provide subnational estimates by region, age, and sex. METHODS: We used an established comparative risk assessment framework. All-cause mortality estimates were calculated from a recent pooled cohort analysis. Age- and sex-specific relative risks for SSBs-disease relationships were obtained from updated meta-analyses. Demographics and nationally representative estimates of SSBs intake were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012; and mortality rates, from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography. Attributable mortality was calculated by estimating the population attributable fraction of each disease, with uncertainty in data inputs propagated through Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: In Mexican adults 20 years and older, 6.9% (95%UI: 5.4-8.5) of all cause-mortality was attributable to SSBs, representing 40,842 excess deaths/year (95%UI: 31,950-50,138). Furthermore, 19% of diabetes, CVD and obesity-related cancer mortality was attributable to SSBs (95%UI: 11.0-26.5), representing 37,000 excess deaths/year (95%UI 21,240-51,045). Of these, 35.6% were diabetes-related (95%UI 16.4-52.0). Proportional burden was highest in the South (22.8%), followed by the Center (18.0%) and North (17.4%). Men aged 45-64-years in the Center region had highest proportional mortality (37.2%), followed by 20-44-year-old men living in the South (35.7%) and both men and women aged 20-44 living in the Center (34.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Utilizing current evidence linking SSBs to cardiometabolic disease and obesity-related cancers, earlier estimates of Mexican mortality attributable to SSBs could have been underestimated. Mexico urgently needs stronger policies to reduce SSBs consumption and reduce these burdens.

Expected population weight and diabetes impact of the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico.

STUDY QUESTION: What effect on body mass index, obesity and diabetes can we expect from the 1-peso-per-litre tax to sugar sweetened beverages in Mexico? METHODS: Using recently published estimates of the reductions in beverage purchases due to the tax, we modelled its expected long-term impacts on body mass index (BMI), obesity and diabetes. Microsimulations based on a nationally representative dataset were used to estimate the impact of the tax on BMI and obesity. A Markov population model, built upon an age-period-cohort model of diabetes incidence, was used to estimate the impact on diagnosed diabetes in Mexico. To analyse the potential of tax increases we also modelled a 2-peso-per-litre tax scenario. STUDY ANSWER AND LIMITATIONS: Ten years after the implementation of the tax, we expect an average reduction of 0.15 kg/m2 per person, which translates into a 2.54% reduction in obesity prevalence. People in the lowest level of socioeconomic status and those between 20 and 35 years of age showed the largest reductions in BMI and overweight and obesity prevalence. Simulations show that by 2030, under the current implementation of 1-peso-per-litre, the tax would prevent 86 to 134 thousand cases of diabetes. Overall, the 2-peso-per-litre scenario is expected to produce twice as much of a reduction. These estimates assume the tax effect on consumption remains stable over time. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of findings; similar results were obtained with various parameter assumptions and alternative modelling approaches. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: The sugar-sweetened beverages tax in Mexico is expected to produce sizable and sustained reductions in obesity and diabetes. Increasing the tax could produce larger benefits. While encouraging, estimates will need to be updated once data on direct changes in consumption becomes available.

Behaviours and opinions towards outdoor smoking bans and cigarette littering in Baja California, Mexico.

OBJECTIVE: Outdoor smoking bans have been implemented to reduce secondhand smoke exposure and cigarette littering. We aimed to explore outdoor smoking behaviours, cigarette littering, and support towards a recently enacted outdoor smoking ban in Baja California, Mexico. METHODS: From October 2013 to April 2014 a representative sample of 800 adults from urban areas of Baja California was surveyed to obtain information on demographics, smoking status, opinion towards outdoor smoking bans in general and in specific locations, and perceptions and habits regarding cigarette littering. Descriptive statistics and Poisson regression analyses were conducted to estimate prevalence ratios and corresponding 95% CI taking into account the complex survey design. RESULTS: Outdoor smoking was frequently observed, as 86.8% of the population reported having seen people smoking in parks and beaches and 94.4% in open venues such as concerts or stadiums. A smoking ban in all outdoor areas was supported by 71.8% of Baja California residents. Site-specific support ranged from 80% (stadiums) to 89% (public parks). Support for the ban was higher among never and ex-smokers than in current smokers. Cigarette littering was negatively perceived by 98% of the participants, yet 45% of all cigarettes smoked were thrown on the ground. Based on cigarette consumption and butt littering reported in the survey, we estimated that 27 million cigarette butts become litter every month in urban areas of Baja California. CONCLUSIONS: Outdoor smoking is still frequent in outdoor areas where people gather, and an important source of littering. We found substantial public support towards the outdoor smoking ban, which should translate into easier implementation and compliance in Baja California, Mexico.