A review of the advances in understanding the genetic basis of spondylarthritis and emerging clinical benefit.

Spondyloarthropathies (SpA), including ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA), have been shown to have a substantial genetic predisposition based on heritability estimates derived from family studies and genome-wide association studies (GWAS). GWAS have uncovered numerous genetic loci associated with susceptibility to SpA, with significant associations to human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes, which are major genetic risk factors for both AS and PsA. Specific loci differentiating PsA from cutaneous-only psoriasis have been identified, though these remain limited. Further research with larger sample sizes is necessary to identify more PsA-specific genetic markers. Current research focuses on translating these genetic insights into clinical applications. For example, polygenic risk scores are showing promise for the classification of disease risk and diagnosis and future research should focus on refining these risk assessment tools to improve clinical outcomes for individuals with SpA. Addressing these challenges will help integrate genetic testing into patients care and impact clinical practice.

Metabolic syndrome and psoriatic arthritis: the role of weight loss as a disease-modifying therapy.

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is an inflammatory joint and entheseal disease associated with significant personal and public health burden. PsA has a prevalence of up to 1%, affecting ~20% of people suffering with psoriasis. PsA is frequently accompanied by metabolic syndrome (MetS), and both conditions are characterised by a chronic pro-inflammatory state, with several key cytokines in PsA (interleukin (IL)-17 and IL-23) also elevated in those with MetS. This narrative review aims to provide an update on MetS in PsA, focusing on its prevalence, pathogenesis, prognosis, treatment interactions and future therapeutic options. MetS is particularly prevalent in PsA compared to other inflammatory arthritides. Cohort studies indicate a higher risk of PsA in individuals with obesity, while Mendelian randomization studies link childhood obesity, insulin resistance, and dyslipidaemia to PsA. Weight loss interventions have been shown to reduce disease activity in PsA. Additionally, MetS negatively impacts the efficacy of tumour necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) drugs in treating PsA. Drugs given for PsA may also affect the conditions constituting MetS. Leflunomide has been shown to reduce body weight but also increase blood pressure. TNFi drugs lead to weight gain but reduce cardiovascular risk. Janus kinase inhibitors increase lipid levels and cardiovascular risk among high-risk groups. Anti-IL-17 and anti-IL-12/IL-23 drugs may cause a short-term increase in cardiovascular risk, although the long-term effects have yet to be established. Weight loss represents an unexplored avenue for disease modification in PsA, alongside a plethora of general health benefits. Dietary and exercise modifications are the cornerstone of weight management but vary substantially across individuals. Novel therapies to treat weight loss, such as glucagon-like peptide 1 agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors, may prove useful alongside disease-modifying therapies for those with PsA and MetS and should be investigated as potential therapeutic adjuncts.

What effects do obesity and related health problems have on psoriatic arthritis? Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is a condition that causes joint pain and swelling, which can lead to permanent damage to the joints over time. This condition affects 1 in 100 people and 1 in 5 people with psoriasis. Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a condition where a person has a combination of high body fat, high blood pressure, high blood sugar and/or high cholesterol. MetS is more common in someone with PsA. If a person has MetS, they are more likely to get PsA. If a person with PsA has MetS, they have worse joint problems and their joint problems do not improve as much with certain treatments. Many of the drugs given for PsA can affect MetS. This can include increasing or decreasing body weight, increasing blood pressure and increasing or decreasing the risk of having a heart attack or stroke. Different medications affect these risks in different ways. Weight loss helps people with PsA improve their joint problems. However, some people find losing weight harder than others. Medications that can help people lose weight, could be useful to improve joint problems in PsA. Future studies should see if these medications can be useful in people with PsA and MetS.

Genetically Proxied Interleukin-13 Inhibition Is Associated With Risk of Psoriatic Disease: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

OBJECTIVE: Inhibitors of the interleukin 13 (IL-13) pathway, such as dupilumab, are licensed for atopic dermatitis and asthma. Adverse events resembling psoriatic disease after dupilumab initiation have been reported, but evidence is limited to case reports with uncertain causality. We aimed to investigate whether genetically mimicked IL-13 inhibition (IL-13i) is associated with risk of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and psoriasis. METHODS: We instrumented IL-13i using a protein-coding variant in the IL13 gene, rs20541, that is associated with circulating eosinophil count (biomarker of IL-13i) at genome-wide significance in a study of 563,946 individuals. Outcome genetic data were taken from studies of PsA, psoriasis, and related spondyloarthritis traits in up to 10,588 cases and 209,287 controls. Colocalization analysis was performed to examine genetic confounding. We additionally used circulating IgE as a biomarker to test whether associations were replicated, both in the test and in an independent genetic dataset. We also replicated analyses using individual-level data from the UK Biobank. RESULTS: Genetically proxied IL-13i was associated with increased risk of PsA (odds ratio [OR] 37.39; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 11.52-121.34; P = 1.64 × 10-9) and psoriasis (OR 20.08; 95% CI 4.38-92.01; P = 1.12 × 10-4). No consistent associations were found for Crohn disease, ulcerative colitis, ankylosing spondylitis, or iritis. Colocalization showed no strong evidence of genetic confounding for psoriatic disease. Results were replicated using circulating IgE for the exposure, using independent outcome data and using individual-level data. CONCLUSION: We provide supportive genetic evidence that IL-13i is linked to increased risk of PsA and psoriasis. Physicians prescribing IL-13 inhibitors should be vigilant for these adverse events.

Vitamin D, chronic pain, and depression: linear and non-linear Mendelian randomization analyses.

Vitamin D deficiency has been linked to various chronic pain conditions. However, randomized trials of vitamin D supplementation have had mixed results. In contrast, systematic reviews of randomized trials indicate a protective effect of vitamin D supplementation on depression. We undertake a Mendelian randomization investigation in UK Biobank, a study of UK residents aged 40-65 at recruitment. We perform linear and non-linear Mendelian randomization analyses for four outcomes: fibromyalgia, clinical fatigue, chronic widespread pain, and probable lifetime major depression. We use genetic variants from four gene regions with known links to vitamin D biology as instruments. In linear analyses, genetically-predicted levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], a clinical marker of vitamin D status, were not associated with fibromyalgia (odds ratio [OR] per 10 nmol/L higher 25(OH)D 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93, 1.12), clinical fatigue (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.94, 1.05), chronic widespread pain (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.89, 1.02), or probable lifetime major depression (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.93, 1.01). In non-linear analyses, an association was observed between genetically-predicted 25(OH)D levels and depression in the quintile of the population with the lowest 25(OH)D levels (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59, 0.94); associations were null in other strata. Our findings suggest that population-wide vitamin D supplementation will not substantially reduce pain or depression; however, targeted supplementation of deficient individuals may reduce risk of depression.

Insomnia and short sleep duration, but not chronotype, is associated with chronic widespread pain: Mendelian randomization study.

OBJECTIVES: Sleep disturbance has been associated with chronic widespread pain (CWP), but their causal relationship remains unclear. We aimed to examine the causal relationship and direction between CWP and sleep traits, namely insomnia, sleep duration and chronotype, using Mendelian Randomization. METHOD: We used genetic association data from ~0.5 million individuals and up to 1.8 million controls from the UK Biobank (UKB). All traits were defined predominantly by self-report. Short sleep duration was defined as average ≤6 hours per 24 hours. Chronotype refers to the inclination to sleep at certain times where some wake and go to bed early ('morning' person), and others wake and go to sleep later ('evening' person). To permit use of the largest available genetic association data, we used the Causal Analysis Using Summary Effect estimates (CAUSE) method, which allows for sample overlap. RESULTS: Insomnia (OR 1.009, 95% credible interval 1.005, 1.014; p = 0.018 that the causal model is a better fit than non-causal model) and short sleep duration (OR 1.060, 95%CrI 1.038, 1.083; p = 0.040) were causally associated with increased risk of CWP, with limited evidence for reverse causation. There was no evidence in support of long sleep duration or chronotype being associated with CWP. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggest that insomnia and short sleep duration (≤6 hours) are associated with an increased risk of CWP. Improving short sleep duration and insomnia, rather than chronotype, may be effective in reducing the risk of CWP, although these results should be replicated in epidemiological and interventional studies.

Role of Anti-Inflammatory Diet and Fecal Microbiota Transplant in Psoriatic Arthritis.

PURPOSE: Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is a chronic inflammatory condition with complex and heterogenous manifestations. Although a myriad of treatment options including biologic medications are available to alleviate symptoms and slow disease progression, there is currently no cure for this condition. There has been a recent emergence of understanding about the relationship between the gut microbiome and immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. This has generated interest in the potential role of dietary interventions, particularly anti-inflammatory diets, and fecal microbiota transplant (FMT) as novel therapeutic approaches. The purpose of this narrative review is to examine the role of an anti-inflammatory diet and FMT in turn and whether their combination may offer alternate approaches for the management of PsA. METHODS: Our non-systematic narrative review was informed by a literature search using PubMed and Google Scholar using the terms anti-inflammatory diet, FMT, nutrition supplements, and PsA. Preclinical studies and non-English language articles were excluded when synthesizing the narrative review. FINDINGS: Current randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational evidence suggest that a hypocaloric diet or Mediterranean diet can help achieve weight loss among PsA patients who are overweight or obese, which in turn reduces inflammation and improves disease activity. However, there is no strong data to support the beneficial effects of intermittent fasting, vitamin supplements, turmeric supplements, probiotics, or omega-3 fatty acid supplements in PsA. Current evidence on the use of FMT in PsA is limited as only one small RCT has been conducted which did not demonstrate efficacy for improving clinical symptoms. IMPLICATIONS: Clinicians can consider recommending hypocaloric or Mediterranean diets as an adjunct to standard management of PsA, possibly under the guidance of a dietician. Further research is needed to explore the beneficial effects of the synergistic role of combining an anti-inflammatory diet with FMT in PsA.

Denosumab, for osteoporosis, reduces the incidence of type 2 diabetes, risk of foot ulceration and all-cause mortality in adults, compared with bisphosphonates: An analysis of real-world, cohort data, with a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: To evaluate the impact of denosumab on (i) the incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D), and (ii) long-term health outcomes (microvascular [neuropathy, retinopathy, nephropathy] and macrovascular [cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular accident] complications, and all-cause mortality) in patients with T2D, before (iii) combining results with prior studies using meta-analysis. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of data in a large global federated database (TriNetX; Cambridge, MA) was conducted from 331 375 patients, without baseline T2D or cancer, prescribed either denosumab (treatment, n = 45 854) or bisphosphonates (control, n = 285 521), across 83 healthcare organizations. Propensity score matching (1:1) of confounders was undertaken that resulted in 45 851 in each cohort. Secondary analysis further evaluated the impact of denosumab on long-term health outcomes in patients with T2D. Additionally, we systematically searched prior literature that assessed the association between denosumab and T2D. Estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Risk of bias and evidence quality were assessed using Cochrane-endorsed tools. RESULTS: Denosumab (vs. bisphosphonates) was associated with a lower risk of incident T2D over 5 years (hazard ratio 0.83 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.78-0.88]). Secondary analysis showed significant risk reduction in all-cause mortality (0.79 [0.72-0.87]) and foot ulceration (0.67 [0.53-0.86]). Also, pooled results from four studies (three observational, one randomized controlled trial) following meta-analysis showed a reduced relative risk (RR [95% CI]) for incident T2D in patients prescribed denosumab (0.83 [0.79-0.87]) (I2 = 10.76%). CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest cohort study to show that denosumab treatment is associated with a reduced RR of incident T2D, as well as an associated reduced RR of all-cause mortality and microvascular complications, findings that may influence guideline development in the treatment of osteoporosis, particularly in patients who are at a high risk of T2D.

Modifiable risk factors and inflammation-related proteins in polymyalgia rheumatica: genome-wide meta-analysis and Mendelian randomisation.

OBJECTIVE: Polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) is an age-related inflammatory disease of unknown cause. We aimed to identify potentially modifiable risk factors and therapeutic targets for preventing or treating PMR. METHODS: We meta-analysed genetic association data from 8,156 cases of PMR (defined using diagnostic codes and self-report) and 416,495 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and FinnGen. We then performed Mendelian randomization analyses to estimate the association between eight modifiable risk factors (using data from up to 1.2 million individuals) and 65 inflammation-related circulating proteins (up to 55,792 individuals), using the inverse variance weighted and pleiotropy robust methods. RESULTS: We identified three novel genome-wide significant loci in the IL1R1, NEK6 and CCDC88B genes and confirmation of previously described associations with HLA-DRB1 and ANKRD55. Genetically predicted smoking intensity (OR 1.32; 95%CI 1.08-1.60; p = 0.006) and visceral adiposity (OR 1.22; 95%CI 1.10-1.37; p = 3.10x10-4) were associated with PMR susceptibility. Multiple circulating proteins related to IL-1 family signaling were associated with PMR. IL-1 receptor-like 2, also known as IL-36 receptor (OR 1.25; p = 1.89x10-32), serum amyloid A2 (OR 1.06, 9.91x10-10) and CXCL6 (OR 1.09, p = 4.85x10-7) retained significance after correction for multiple testing. CONCLUSION: Reducing smoking and visceral adiposity at a population level might reduce incidence of PMR. We identified proteins that may play causal roles in PMR, potentially suggesting new therapeutic opportunities. Further research is needed before these findings are applied to clinical practice.

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear. METHODS: We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,294 cancer cases and up to 1,238,345 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 × 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e., in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") <0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) >70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Findings were replicated in the FinnGen study and then pooled using meta-analysis. FINDINGS: We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.29, q-value = 0.033, PPH4 = 84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.20-1.69, q-value = 0.055, PPH4 = 73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.53-0.81, q-value = 0.067, PPH4 = 81.8%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97, q-value = 0.15, PPH4 = 85.6%). These findings were replicated in pooled analyses with the FinnGen study. Though suggestive evidence was found to support an association of macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.48-4.10, q-value = 0.072, PPH4 = 76.1%), this finding was not replicated when pooled with the FinnGen study. For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk. INTERPRETATION: Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 4 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 4 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK (C68933/A28534, C18281/A29019, PPRCPJT∖100005), World Cancer Research Fund (IIG_FULL_2020_022), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411, BRC-1215-20011), Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4), Academy of Finland Project 326291, European Union's Horizon 2020 grant agreement no. 848158 (EarlyCause), French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP20, 2020-076), Versus Arthritis (21173, 21754, 21755), National Institutes of Health (U19 CA203654), National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654).

Cardiovascular Outcomes with Intravitreal Anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Therapy in Patients with Diabetes: A Real-World Data Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) therapy is commonly used intravitreally for diabetic proliferative retinopathy, but when used systemically for treating cancers, an excess of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events has been noted. The latter is of concern for people with diabetes, who are at higher risk of CVD. This study aims to explore the relationship between incident CVD and intravitreal anti-VEGF therapy in patients with diabetes, compared to other therapies, using a large real-world global federated dataset. METHODS: Data were analysed using TriNetX, a global electronic medical real-world ecosystem. The study included adults with diabetes and excluded those with a history of CVD prior to the time window of data extraction. Patients were categorised into two cohorts: anti-VEGF therapy or control cohort (laser or steroid therapies). The cohorts were 1:1 propensity score-matched for age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, HbA1c, and cardiovascular medications. Outcomes analysed at 1, 6 and 12 months were: (1) mortality; (2) acute myocardial infarction (MI); (3) cerebral infarction; and (4) heart failure. Relative risk analyses were performed using the built-in R statistical computing platform on TriNetX. RESULTS: In patients with diabetes (n = 2205; mean age 58.8 ± 15.8, Std diff 0.05; 56% male), anti-VEGF therapy was associated with a numerical but non-statistically significant increased CVD risk over 1, 6, and 12 months: Mortality over 1 month (RR 1; 95% CI 0.42, 2.40), 6 months (RR 1.46; 95% CI 0.72, 2.95) and 12 months (RR 1.41; 95% CI 0.88, 2.27). There was no excess of acute MI over 1 (RR n/a: not applicable; 0/0: 0 events in the anti-VEGF group/0 events in the control group), 6 and 12 months (RR n/a; 0/10 events); cerebral infarction over 1, 6 months (RR n/a; 0/0 events), and 12 months (RR n/a; 0/10); and heart failure over 1 month (RR n/a; 0/0 events), 6 months (RR 1; 95% CI 0.42, 2.40) and 12 months (RR 1; 95% CI 0.42, 2.34). CONCLUSIONS: There was no statistically significant risk of cardiovascular-related events in the short or medium term in patients with diabetes who received intravitreal anti-VEGF therapy, despite a small increase in the number of CVD events. Our study supports the real-world safety of intravitreal anti-VEGF therapy in patients with diabetes free of baseline CVD.

Exploring the unifying concept of Spondyloarthritis: a latent class analysis of the REGISPONSER registry.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of our study is to identify the potential distinct phenotypes within a broad Spondyloarthritis (SpA) population. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study using the REGISPONSER registry with data from 31 specialist centres in Spain including patients with SpA who fulfilled the European Spondyloarthropathy Study Group (ESSG) criteria. A latent class analysis (LCA) was performed to identify the latent classes underlying SpA according to a set of predefined clinical and radiographic features, independently of expert opinion. RESULTS: In a population of 2319 SpA patients, a 5 classes LCA model yielded the best fit. Classes named 'axial with spine involvement' and 'axial with isolated SIJ involvement" show a primarily axial SpA phenotype defined by inflammatory back pain and high HLA-B27 prevalence. Patients in class 'axial + peripheral' show similar distribution of manifest variables to previous classes but also have a higher likelihood of peripheral involvement (peripheral arthritis/dactylitis) and enthesitis, therefore representing a mixed (axial and peripheral) subtype. Classes 'Peripheral + psoriasis' and 'Axial + peripheral + psoriasis' are indicative of peripheral SpA (and/or PsA) with high likelihood of psoriasis, peripheral involvement, dactylitis, nail disease, and low HLA-B27 prevalence, while class 'Axial + peripheral + psoriasis' also exhibits increased probability of axial involvement both clinically and radiologically. CONCLUSION: The identification of 5 latent classes in the REGISPONSER registry with significant overlap between axial and peripheral phenotypes is concordant with a unifying concept of SpA. Psoriasis and related features (nail disease and dactylitis) influence the phenotype of both axial and peripheral manifestations.

Socioeconomic deprivation is associated with reduced response and lower treatment persistence with TNF inhibitors in rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between socioeconomic deprivation and outcomes following TNF inhibitor (TNFi) treatment. METHODS: Individuals commencing their first TNFi in the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for RA (BSRBR-RA) and Biologics in RA Genetics and Genomics Study Syndicate (BRAGGSS) cohort were included. Socioeconomic deprivation was proxied using the Index of Multiple Deprivation and categorized as 20% most deprived, middle 40% or 40% least deprived. DAS28-derived outcomes at 6 months (BSRBR-RA) and 3 months (BRAGGSS) were compared using regression models with the least deprived as referent. Risks of all-cause and cause-specific drug discontinuation were compared using Cox models in the BSRBR-RA. Additional analyses adjusted for lifestyle factors (e.g. smoking, BMI) as potential mediators. RESULTS: 16 085 individuals in the BSRBR-RA were included (mean age 56 years, 76% female), of whom 18%, 41% and 41% were in the most, middle and least deprived groups, respectively. Of 3459 included in BRAGGSS (mean age 57, 77% female), proportions were 22%, 36% and 41%, respectively. The most deprived group had 0.3-unit higher 6-month DAS28 (95% CI 0.22, 0.37) and were less likely to achieve low disease activity (odds ratio [OR] 0.76; 95% CI 0.68, 0.84) in unadjusted models. Results were similar for 3-month DAS28 (ß = 0.23; 95% CI 0.11, 0.36) and low disease activity (OR 0.77; 95% CI 0.63, 0.94). The most deprived were more likely to discontinue treatment (hazard ratio 1.18; 95% CI 1.12, 1.25), driven by ineffectiveness rather than adverse events. Adjusted estimates were generally attenuated. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic deprivation is associated with reduced response to TNFi. Improvements in determinants of health other than lifestyle factors are needed to address socioeconomic inequities.

Diagnostic delay is associated with uveitis and inflammatory bowel disease in AS: a study of extra-musculoskeletal manifestations in SpA.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the prevalence of extra-musculoskeletal manifestations (EMM) and the association between diagnostic delay and their incidence in AS and PsA. METHODS: This was a retrospective, cohort study comprising two single centre cohorts in Europe and one multicentre cohort in Latin America (RESPONDIA). Crude prevalence of EMMs (uveitis, IBD and psoriasis) was calculated across geographic area and adjusted by direct standardization. Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to assess the association between diagnostic delay and EMM incidence. RESULTS: Of 3553 patients, 2097 had AS and 1456 had PsA. The overall prevalence of uveitis was 22.9% (95% CI: 21.1, 24.8) in AS and 3.8% (95% CI: 2.9, 5.0) in PsA; 8.1% (95% CI: 7.0, 9.4) and 2.1% (1.3, 2.9), respectively, for IBD; and 11.0% (95% CI: 9.7, 12.4) and 94.6% (93.0, 95.9), respectively, for psoriasis. The EMM often presented before the arthritis (uveitis 45.1% and 33.3%, and IBD 37.4% and 70%, in AS and PsA, respectively). In the multivariable model, longer diagnostic delay (≥5 years) associated with more uveitis (hazard ratio [HR] 4.01; 95% CI: 3.23, 4.07) and IBD events (HR 1.85; 95% CI: 1.28, 2.67) in AS. Diagnostic delay was not significantly associated with uveitis (HR 1.57; 95% CI: 0.69, 3.59) or IBD events (HR 1.59; 95% CI: 0.39, 6.37) in PsA. CONCLUSION: EMMs are more prevalent in AS than PsA and often present before the onset of the articular disease. A longer diagnostic delay is associated with the 'de novo' appearance of uveitis and IBD in AS, highlighting the need to enhance diagnostic strategies to shorten the time from first symptom to diagnosis in SpA.

The predictive accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction tools in inflammatory arthritis and psoriasis: an observational validation study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular risk prediction tools developed for the general population often underperform for individuals with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and their predictive accuracy are unclear for other inflammatory conditions that also have increased cardiovascular risk. We investigated performance of QRISK-3, Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and Reynolds Risk Score (RRS) in RA, psoriatic disease (psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and psoriasis) and ankylosing spondylitis (AS). We considered osteoarthritis as a non-inflammatory comparator. METHODS: We utilised primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum database to identify individuals with each condition and calculated 10-year cardiovascular risk using each prediction tool. Discrimination and calibration of each tool in each disease was assessed. RESULTS: Time-dependent AUC for QRISK3 was 0.752 for RA (95% CI 0.734-0.777), 0.794 for AS (95% CI 0.764-0.812), 0.764 for PsA (95% CI 0.741-0.791),0.815 for psoriasis (95% CI 0.789-0.835), and 0.698 for osteoarthritis (95% CI 0.670-0.717) indicating reasonably good predictive performance. AUC for FRS were similar, and slightly lower for RRS. FRS was reasonably well calibrated for each condition but underpredicted risk for patients with RA. RRS tended to underpredict CVD risk, whilst QRISK3 overpredicted CVD risk, especially for the most high-risk individuals. CONCLUSIONS: CVD risk for individuals with RA, AS and psoriatic disease were generally less accurately predicted using each of the 3 CVD risk prediction tools than reported accuracies in the original publications. Individuals with osteoarthritis also had less accurate predictions suggesting inflammation is not the sole reason for underperformance. Disease specific risk prediction tools may be required.

Adipokines and risk of rheumatoid arthritis: A two-sample multivariable Mendelian randomisation study.

Adiponectin, leptin, and resistin are thought to be involved in the pathogenesis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, the causal relationship between these adipokines and the risk for RA is unclear. We performed a range of two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses to assess the causal effect of circulating adiponectin, leptin, and resistin on RA risk in European and East Asian individuals. Different sets of adiponectin-, leptin-, and resistin-related genetic variants were used as instruments for genetically determined adipokine levels. As body mass index (BMI) is a risk factor for RA and affects adipokine levels, multivariable MR was used to calculate the causal effect of each adipokine on RA risk taking BMI into account. Several MR analyses revealed no evidence of a causal relationship between circulating adiponectin, leptin, or resistin levels and RA risk in either Europeans or East Asians. Similarly, multivariable MR did not provide evidence of any causal effect of adiponectin, leptin, or resistin on RA risk when taking BMI into account. This MR study shows for the first time that genetically determined levels of adiponectin, leptin, or resistin do not have a direct causal effect on the risk of developing RA after adjustment for BMI.

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

Background: Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear. Methods: We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,162 cancer cases and up to 824,556 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 x 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e. in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") < 0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) > 70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Results: We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10-1.29, q-value=0.033, PPH4=84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.20-1.69, q-value=0.055, PPH4=73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.53-0.81, q-value=0.067, PPH4=81.8%), macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.05-1.23, q-value=0.072, PPH4=76.1%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.97, q-value=0.15), PPH4=85.6%). For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥ 0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk. Conclusion: Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 5 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 5 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated.

Childhood, adolescent, and adulthood adiposity are associated with risk of PCOS: a Mendelian randomization study with meta-analysis.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the influence of body composition during childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, as well as metabolic parameters, on incident polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS)? SUMMARY ANSWER: Excess body fat, even during childhood/adolescence, and metabolic parameters, suggestive of hyperinsulinaemia/insulin resistance, significantly impact the risk of PCOS in a linear fashion. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) data have demonstrated an association between adulthood overweight/obesity and development of PCOS. However, the contribution of body composition in childhood/adolescence to incident PCOS is unclear, as is the influence of childhood overweight/obesity. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis and integrated our results with a previously published systematic review. Two blinded investigators screened abstracts published between November 2010 and May 2021. Furthermore, we incorporated summary statistics from genome-wide association study (GWAS) data in subjects of European ancestry. Adult overweight was defined as BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 and obesity as BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2; in Asian subjects, overweight was defined as BMI ≥ 23 kg/m2 and obesity as BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We utilized meta-analysis and MR together to allow synthesis of genetic and observational data. For the systematic review, the search revealed 71 studies, of which 63 were included in meta-analysis by calculating odds ratios (ORs) using the random-effects model. Furthermore, we conducted a two-sample MR study of GWAS data to determine the impact of childhood and adult body size (defined categorically by BMI and childhood body size proportions), abnormal body composition and metabolic parameters (higher fasting serum insulin or lower sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) concentration) on the odds of incident PCOS via the inverse-variance weighted method. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Significant associations were shown between body composition and PCOS incidence. From the systematic review/meta-analysis, women with overweight (OR 3.80, 2.87-5.03), obesity (OR 4.99, 3.74-6.67), and central obesity (OR 2.93, 2.08-4.12) had increased odds of PCOS. For adolescents with overweight and/or obesity, the PCOS odds were greater than for adults. From MR, for every standard deviation increase in BMI (4.8 kg/m2), the odds of PCOS increased by 2.76 (2.27-3.35). Childhood body size had an independent effect on PCOS odds after adjusting for adult body size (OR: 2.56, 1.57-4.20). Genetically determined body fat percentage (OR 3.05, 2.24-4.15), whole body fat mass (OR 2.53, 2.04-3.14), fasting serum insulin (OR 6.98, 2.02-24.13), and SHBG concentration (OR 0.74, 0.64-0.87) were all significantly associated with PCOS in a linear relation. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The meta-analysis included studies which were cross-sectional and retrospective, limiting our ability to determine causality. MR was limited by interrogating subjects only of European ancestry and including cases classified by either self-diagnosis or diagnostic criteria. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our study demonstrates for the first time a critical role of the impact of excess childhood/adolescent adiposity on the pathophysiology of adult PCOS. Our results, driven by genetically determined childhood/adolescent body composition, higher BMI, hyperinsulinaemia, and lower SHBG, clearly favour obesity driving the metabolic, but not reproductive, PCOS phenotype. Overall, effective weight maintenance, even from the early years, is likely to reduce the risk of this reproductive endocrine disorder. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): S.S.Z. was funded by a National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Academic Clinical Lectureship. U.A. is chair of the NIHR Steering Committee Trial-CASSANDRA-DN. No other authors declare any sources of funding or relevant conflicts of interest. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relations that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Genetic liability to gastro-esophageal reflux disease, obesity, and risk of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GORD) has been associated with a greater risk of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) in observational studies, but results are limited by confounding. We used multivariable Mendelian randomization to examine their causal relationship, adjusting for BMI. METHODS: We selected genetic instruments for GORD from genome-wide association studies of 80,265 cases and 305,011 controls. Genetic association data for IPF were obtained from 2668 cases and 8591 controls, and BMI from 694,649 individuals. We used the inverse-variance weighted method and a series of sensitivity analyses including weak instrument robust methods. RESULTS: Although genetic liability to GORD increased IPF risk (OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.10-2.25), this result was attenuated to include the null after adjusting for BMI (OR 1.14; 95% CI 0.85-1.52). CONCLUSION: Intervention for GORD alone is unlikely to reduce the risk of IPF, whereas reducing obesity may be a better approach.

Disentangling the relationship between depression and chronic widespread pain: A Mendelian randomisation study.

OBJECTIVE: Depression and chronic widespread pain (CWP) frequently coexist, but whether depression is an independent causal risk factor for CWP, and/or vice versa, remains unclear. We investigated the bidirectional causal relationship between depression and CWP. METHODS: We performed a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) study to estimate the causal relationship between genetically predicted depression (170,756 cases, 329,443 controls) and risk of CWP (6,914 cases, 242,929 controls), and the effect of CWP on depression susceptibility, using large population-level genetic data. We used a new MR method, Causal Analysis Using Summary Effect estimates (CAUSE), which allows for sample overlap, in addition to traditional MR and sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: For each doubling in odds of genetic liability to depression, the risk of chronic widespread pain was increased (OR 1.004, 95% credible interval 1.003-1.005; p = 7.3 × 10-5 that the causal model is a better fit than non-causal model). There was bidirectional evidence of causality, with genetic liability to chronic widespread pain increasing depression susceptibility (OR 2.31; 95%CrI 1.57, 3.40; p = 0.0026 that the causal model is a better fit). Other MR methods produced concordant results. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence in support of a bidirectional causal relationship between depression and increased risk of chronic widespread pain, whilst overcoming the major limitations of previous epidemiological studies. Interventions for depression may be an effective strategy to prevent or reduce the burden of chronic widespread pain and vice versa.