Machine learning in predicting T-score in the Oxford classification system of IgA nephropathy.

Background: Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is one of the leading causes of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Many studies have shown the significance of pathological manifestations in predicting the outcome of patients with IgAN, especially T-score of Oxford classification. Evaluating prognosis may be hampered in patients without renal biopsy. Methods: A baseline dataset of 690 patients with IgAN and an independent follow-up dataset of 1,168 patients were used as training and testing sets to develop the pathology T-score prediction (T pre) model based on the stacking algorithm, respectively. The 5-year ESKD prediction models using clinical variables (base model), clinical variables and real pathological T-score (base model plus T bio), and clinical variables and T pre (base model plus T pre) were developed separately in 1,168 patients with regular follow-up to evaluate whether T pre could assist in predicting ESKD. In addition, an external validation set consisting of 355 patients was used to evaluate the performance of the 5-year ESKD prediction model using T pre. Results: The features selected by AUCRF for the T pre model included age, systolic arterial pressure, diastolic arterial pressure, proteinuria, eGFR, serum IgA, and uric acid. The AUC of the T pre was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.80-0.85) in an independent testing set. For the 5-year ESKD prediction model, the AUC of the base model was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.75-0.97). When the T bio was added to the base model, there was an increase in AUC [from 0.86 (95% CI: 0.75-0.97) to 0.92 (95% CI: 0.85-0.98); P = 0.03]. There was no difference in AUC between the base model plus T pre and the base model plus T bio [0.90 (95% CI: 0.82-0.99) vs. 0.92 (95% CI: 0.85-0.98), P = 0.52]. The AUC of the 5-year ESKD prediction model using T pre was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.87-0.99) in the external validation set. Conclusion: A pathology T-score prediction (T pre) model using routine clinical characteristics was constructed, which could predict the pathological severity and assist clinicians to predict the prognosis of IgAN patients lacking kidney pathology scores.

[Congenital syphillis presenting congenital nephrotic syndrome in two children and related data review].

OBJECTIVE: To study the clinical features of congenital syphillis presenting congenital nephrotic syndrome (CNS) in children. METHODS: Two cases diagnosed as congenital syphillis presenting CNS in our hospital were retrospectively analyzed and related data reviewed. RESULTS: The two children had edema, gross proteinuria, haematuria, hepatosplenomegaly, abdominal distention and anaema. Rapid plasmin regain (RPR) and treponema palidum hemagglutination assay (TPHA) were all positive. One chiild was also had renal biopsy and showed membraous nephropathy. Adequate penicillin therapy got satisfatory effects without steroid treatment. CONCLUSION: For children with early occurrence of proteinuria, edema accompanied by anaema, and hepatosplenomegaly, we should conside the possibility of syphillis nephropathy, which should be treated with enough dosage of penicillin in instead of steroid. Early diagnosis and treatmen could get complete recovery of CNS.

[Screening of high-risk group with colorectal cancer].

OBJECTIVE: To measure the rate of high-risk group and the detection rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) in communities in Guangdong province and to provide scientific rationales for formulating mass screening plans in high-risk group. METHODS: Mass survey was conducted by questionnaire combined fecal occult blood test (FOBT) in Huizhou region, Guangdong Province, to sort out the high-risk population of CRC. Then the high-risk population was screened by colonoscopy and pathology to identify CRC. The differences were compared by direct expenditure which was used to calculate screening cost. RESULTS: A total of 68,953 people were surveyed. There were 940 people in high-risk group (detection rate: 1.36%), 3118 in immunity FOBT positive group (detection rate: 4.52%), Merging aforementioned two groups, there were 3870 in population at risk (detection rate: 5.61%). The CRC detection rate in high-risk group, immunity FOBT positive group, population at risk and average-risk group was 506.3/10(5), 314.3/10(5), 315.9/10(5) and 17.7/10(5) respectively. The positive predictive value of CRC screening scheme by high-risk group questionnaire-colonoscopy was 0.43% while CRC screening scheme by FOBT-colonoscopy 0.22%. In terms of direct expenditure of CRC per case in high-risk group and immunity FOBT positive group was 47,834.5 yuan and 82,303.6 yuan. The latter was 1.7 times than that of the former. CONCLUSIONS: The scheme of questionnaire combined FOBT for CRC is an effective way in mass survey. The scheme by high-risk group questionnaire-colonoscopy has a much better cost-effectiveness than that of the scheme by FOBT-colonoscopy so that it should be one of the preferred methods for individual screening in high-risk group.

Colorectal cancer in Guangdong Province of China: a demographic and anatomic survey.

AIM: To determine the basic demographic features of colorectal cancer (CRC) in five hospitals located in four different areas of Guangdong Province, China. METHODS: A review of patient records from 1986 to 2006 from five hospitals was conducted. Patient data was obtained, including age, gender, location of lesions, staging and histological type of CRC. The Chi-square test was used to assess differences in rates and a significance level of 0.05 was used. Univariate comparisons were made via Fisher's exact tests. RESULTS: Analysis was carried out on 8172 CRC patents, 6.1% (499/8172) of the patients were aged < or = 30 years. The peak incidence was between the ages 61-70 years (27.8%). The mean age at CRC diagnosis increased from 52 years (1986-1988) to 60 years (2004-2006) and the proportion of young CRC patients decreased from 8.0% to 5.9% over the same period. Of 8172 lesions, 4434 (54.3%) were located in rectum and 3738 (45.7%) in colon. The incidence of rectal cancer decreased significantly from 59.4% (1989-1991) to 51.8% (2004-2006) and right sided colon cancer increased from 40.6% to 48.2%. The mean age, anatomic distribution, histological type and differentiation degree were significantly different among the four geographical areas (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The hospitalization rate for CRC has increased in Guangdong in recent years. The characteristics of CRC from the five hospitals located in the four different areas of Guangdong Province are also different. Further studies are needed to assess more recent trend in the incidence and prevalence of CRC as well as the respective roles of genetic and environmental factors in CRC.

[Epidemiology investigation of colorectal cancer on community group in Guangdong province].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the epidemiology characteristics of colorectal cancer on community group in Guangdong province. METHODS: Huidong was took as the research spot to investigate the sickness and incidence of colorectal cancer among a whole community group in Guangdong province, and two projects were used simultaneously: "screening of colorectal cancer in high risk group" and "screening project using fecal occult blood test". The numeration time for population of 10 towns was set at July 1, 2005. Five towns were sampled out from Huidong with 100,859 persons. Meanwhile, the diseases and death cause registering system was established. RESULTS: The incidence of colorectal cancer in Huidong community group was 15.2/100,000 (male 17.2/100,000, female 13.0/100,000), the age-adjusted incidence was 17.6/100,000 (male 19.5/100,000, female 16.7/100,000). The morbidity was 41.9/100,000 (male 46.5/100,000, female 37.2/100,000), the age-adjusted morbidity was 49.0/100,000 (male 54.1/100,000, female 45.6/100,000). The mortality was 5.0/100,000 (male 5.9/100,000, female 4.0/100,000) and the age-adjusted morbidity was 6.4/100,000 (male 7.2/100,000, female 5.7/100,000). CONCLUSION: The incidence of colorectal cancer in Huidong community group is lower than that of high incidence area in China, but gets close to the normal incidence area of China and general level of the world.

[The trend of clinical characteristics of colorectal cancer during the past 20 years in Guangdong province].

OBJECTIVE: To study the trend of clinical characteristics of colorectal cancer during the past 20 years in Gaungdong province. METHODS: The clinical data of 3870 cases of colorectal cancers confirmed pathologically who were hospitalized to Nanfang Hospital and Huizhou Municipal Hospital, Guangdong province, 1985 - 2004 were divided into 5-year groups and analyzed. RESULTS: The hospitalization number of colorectal cancer in the 2000 - 20004 5-year period was 102%, higher than that of the 1985 - 1989 period with an annual increase of 5.1%. The median age of incidence 2000 - 2004 was 58.6 years, 8.4 years higher than that in 1985 - 1989. The male to female ratio of the 3870 patients was 1.42:1. The male to female ratio 2000 - 2004 was 1.35:1, lower than that 1985 - 1989 (1.50:1). The proportion of rectal cancer 2000 - 2004 was 49.7%, significantly lower than that in 1985 - 1989 (64.8%), while the proportion of right hemi-colon cancer 2000 - 2004 was 28.7%, significantly higher than that in 1985 - 1989 (18.0%). The proportion of moderately and well differentiated cancer 2000 - 2004 was 80.6%, higher than that in 1985 - 1989 (70.1%), and the proportion of poorly differentiated cancer 2000 - 2004 was 19.4%, lower than that in 1985 - 1989 (29.9%). The proportion of colorectal cancer at Dukes A stage 2000 - 2004 was 9.8%, higher than that in 1985 - 1989 (3.2%). CONCLUSION: In the past 20 years, the incidence of colorectal cancer has increased in Guangdong province with a n increase of median age of incidence, The male to female ratio has decreased, and the incidence of right hemi-colon cancer, the rates of higher differentiated cancer and Dukes A stage cancer have increased.

[Clinical epidemiological characteristics of 3870 cases of colorectal cancers in Guangdong region].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the clinical characteristics and pattern of incidence of colorectal cancers in Guangdong region. METHODS: Analysis and summary were made for 3870 colorectal cancer patients pathologically confirmed in the Nanfang Hospital and Huizhou Municipal Central Hospital of Guangdong province. RESULTS: Median age of 3870 cases with colorectal cancer was 55.3. The high-risk age ranged from 41 to 70.204 cases among them were young patients (age < or = 30, 5.3%). With increase of age the number of cases with rectal cancers decreased gradually, while cancers occurring in the right hemi colon increased gradually. The ratio between male and female was 1.42:1. There were altogether 3958 colonic cancer lesions found in all the cases. Among them 3783 (97.8%) cases presented with a single lesson, 87 (2.2%) cases presented with multiple lesions. 2243 (56.7%) lesions located in the rectum, 717 (18.1%) in the left hemi colon, 998 (25.2%) in the right hemi colon. Histological types in all the lesions cases were grouped as follows: tubular adenocarcinoma 2943 (76.0%); papillary adenocarcinoma 256 (6.6%); mucinous carcinoma 425 (11.0%); and miscellaneous types 246 (6.4%). Colorectal cancers with poor differentiation occurring in the young were 38.2% while in the middle age and the elderly were 29.9% and 14.6%, respectively. The difference between two groups showed a statistical significance (P < 0.01). The cases with confirmed stage A, B, C and D were 234 (6.0%), 1936 (50.0%), 1310 (33.9%) and 390 (10.1%), respectively, according to Dukes' staging system. The cases with the progressing stages (B, C, D stages) were 3636 (94.0%) among all the cases. CONCLUSIONS: The number of patients with colorectal cancer admitted in hospital increased gradually in the recent 20 years, and showed a trend with the decrease percentage in rectal cancer and the gradual increasing in right hemi colon cancer with increase of patients age. Half of the colorectal cancer occurred in the rectum, the rest occurred in the left and right hemi colon. The three clinical epidemiological characteristics of colorectal cancer, which once existed in Chinese, has disappeared in Guangdong region.

[Value and economic analysis of emergency endoscopy in the diagnosis and treatment of massive upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage].

OBJECTIVE: To study the application value of emergency endoscopy in the diagnosis and treatment of massive upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage, and to evaluated by the economic analysis whether the emergency endoscopy was safe and effective,or shorten the hospitalization days and reduced the medical costs. METHODS: Ninety-one patients with massive upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage were randomly divided into emergency endoscopy group (group A) and non-emergency endoscopy group (group B). The patients in group A underwent endoscopy as soon as the blood pressures were normal and the patients of group B underwent endoscopy at 24-48 hours after hospitalization. They would be treated depending on the conditions by endoscopy. Then the correct diagnosis rates, rebleeding rates, complication rates, mean hospitalization days, the endoscopy costs, the blood transfusion costs, the drugs costs and the total hospitalization costs of two groups were evaluated and the cost-effect ratio (C/E) was calculated. RESULTS: The correct diagnosis rates and the endoscopy costs of group A were higher than the group B (100.0 percent vs.90.2 percent, P<0.05; (714.78+/-263.54) yuan vs. (383.57+/-251.72) yuan, P<0.01), and the rebleeding rates, the mean hospitalizations days, the blood transfusion costs and the drugs costs and the total hospitalization costs were all lower compared to the group B (6.1 percent vs. 26.8 percent, P<0.05; (5.42+/-1.70) days vs. (8.51+/-2.30) days, P<0.01; (791.80+/-258.35) yuan vs. (1270.29+/-569.21) yuan, P<0.01; (945.22+/-125.82) yuan vs. (1223.81+/-254.44) yuan, P<0.01; (2785.76+/-353.26) yuan vs. (3 527.76+/-555.62)yuan, P<0.01. The C/E of group A was lower than the group B (2785.76 yuan per patient vs. 3527.76 yuan per patient, P<0.01). CONCLUSION: Emergency endoscopy is not only safe and effective but also economical in the diagnosis and treatment of massive upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage.