Exploring the causal relationship between inflammatory cytokines and inflammatory arthritis: A Mendelian randomization study.

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies have reported an association between inflammatory cytokines and inflammatory arthritis, including Ankylosing spondylitis (AS), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and psoriatic arthritis (PsA). This study aims to explore the causal relationship between inflammatory cytokines and AS, RA, and PsA using Mendelian randomization (MR). METHODS: We conducted a bidirectional two-sample MR analysis using genetic summary data from a publicly available genome-wide association study (GWAS) that included 41 genetic variations of inflammatory cytokines, as well as genetic variant data for AS, RA, and PsA from the FinnGen consortium. The main analysis method used was Inverse variance weighted (IVW) to investigate the causal relationship between exposure and outcome. Additionally, other methods such as MR Egger, weighted median (WM), simple mode, and weighted mode were employed to strengthen the final results. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to ensure the reliability of the findings. RESULTS: The results showed that macrophage colony-stimulating factor (MCSF) was associated with an increased risk of AS (OR = 1.163, 95 % CI = 1.016-1.33, p = 0.028). Conversely, high levels of TRAIL and beta nerve growth factor (ß-NGF) were associated with a decreased risk of AS (OR = 0.892, 95 % CI = 0.81-0.982, p = 0.002; OR = 0.829, 95 % CI = 0.696-0.988, p = 0.036). Four inflammatory cytokines were found to be associated with an increased risk of PsA: vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) (OR = 1.161, 95 % CI = 1.057-1.275, p = 0.002); Interleukin 12p70 (IL12p70) (OR = 1.189, 95 % CI = 1.049-1.346, p = 0.007); IL10 (OR = 1.216, 95 % CI = 1.024-1.444, p = 0.026); IL13 (OR = 1.159, 95 % CI = 1.05-1.28, p = 0.004). Interleukin 1 receptor antagonist (IL-1rα) was associated with an increased risk of seropositive RA (OR = 1.181, 95 % CI = 1.044-1.336, p = 0.008). Similarly, genetic susceptibility to inflammatory arthritis was found to be causally associated with multiple inflammatory cytokines. Lastly, the sensitivity analysis supported the robustness of these findings. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides additional insights into the relationship between inflammatory cytokines and inflammatory arthritis, and may offer new clues for the etiology, diagnosis, and treatment of inflammatory arthritis.

Using Machine Learning to Predict Surgical Site Infection After Lumbar Spine Surgery.

Objective: The objective of this study was to utilize machine learning techniques to analyze perioperative factors and identify blood glucose levels that can predict the occurrence of surgical site infection following posterior lumbar spinal surgery. Methods: A total of 4019 patients receiving lumbar internal fixation surgery from an institute were enrolled between June 2012 and February 2021. First, the filtered data were randomized into the test and verification groups. Second, in the test group, specific variables were screened using logistic regression analysis, Lasso regression analysis, support vector machine, and random forest. Specific variables obtained using the four methods were intersected, and a dynamic model was constructed. ROC and calibration curves were constructed to assess model performance. Finally, internal model performance was verified in the verification group using ROC and calibration curves. Results: The data from 4019 patients were collected. In total, 1327 eligible cases were selected. By combining logistic regression analysis with three machine learning algorithms, this study identified four predictors associated with SSI, namely Modic changes, sebum thickness, hemoglobin, and glucose. Using this information, a prediction model was developed and visually represented. Then, we constructed ROC and calibration curves using the test group; the area under the ROC curve was 0.988. Further, calibration curve analysis revealed favorable consistency of nomogram-predicted values compared with real measurements. The C-index of our model was 0.986 (95% CI 0.981-0.994). Finally, we used the validation group to validate the model internally; the AUC was 0.987. Calibration curve analysis revealed favorable consistency of nomogram-predicted values compared with real measurements. The C-index was 0.982 (95% CI 0.974-0.999). Conclusion: Logistic regression analysis and machine learning were employed to select four risk factors: Modic changes, sebum thickness, hemoglobin, and glucose. Then, a dynamic prediction model was constructed to help clinicians simplify the monitoring and prevention of SSI.

Predictive Value of Machine Learning Models in Postoperative Mortality of Older Adults Patients with Hip Fracture: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Some researchers have used machine learning to predict mortality in old patients with hip fracture, but its application value lacks an evidence-based basis. Hence, we conducted this meta-analysis to explore the predictive accuracy of machine learning for mortality in old patients with hip fracture. METHODS: We systematically retrieved PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, and Web of Science for relevant studies published before July 15, 2022. The PROBAST assessment tool was used to assess the risk of bias in the included studies. A random-effects model was used for the meta-analysis of C-index, whereas a bivariate mixed-effects model was used for the meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity. The meta-analysis was performed on R and Stata. RESULTS: Eighteen studies were included, involving 8 machine learning models and 398,422 old patients undergoing hip joint surgery, of whom 60,457 died. According to the meta-analysis, the pooled C-index for machine learning models was 0.762 (95% CI: 0.691 ∼ 0.833) in the training set and 0.838 (95% CI: 0.783 ∼ 0.892) in the validation set, which is better than the C-index of the main clinical scale (Nottingham Hip Fracture Score), that is, 0.702 (95% CI: 0.681 ∼ 0.723). Among different machine learning models, ANN and Bayesian belief network had the best predictive performance. CONCLUSION: Machine learning models are more accurate in predicting mortality in old patients after hip joint surgery than current mainstream clinical scoring systems. Subsequent research could focus on updating clinical scoring systems and improving their predictive performance by relying on machine learning models.

To infer the probability of cervical ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament and explore its impact on cervical surgery.

The ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) in the cervical spine is commonly observed in degenerative changes of the cervical spine. Early detection of cervical OPLL and prevention of postoperative complications are of utmost importance. We gathered data from 775 patients who underwent cervical spine surgery at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, collecting a total of 84 variables. Among these patients, 144 had cervical OPLL, while 631 did not. They were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort. Multiple machine learning (ML) methods were employed to screen the variables and ultimately develop a diagnostic model. Subsequently, we compared the postoperative outcomes of patients with positive and negative cervical OPLL. Initially, we compared the advantages and disadvantages of various ML methods. Seven variables, namely Age, Gender, OPLL, AST, UA, BMI, and CHD, exhibited significant differences and were used to construct a diagnostic nomogram model. The area under the curve (AUC) values of this model in the training and validation groups were 0.76 and 0.728, respectively. Our findings revealed that 69.2% of patients who underwent cervical OPLL surgery eventually required elective anterior surgery, in contrast to 86.8% of patients who did not have cervical OPLL. Patients with cervical OPLL had significantly longer operation times and higher postoperative drainage volumes compared to those without cervical OPLL. Interestingly, preoperative cervical OPLL patients demonstrated significant increases in mean UA, age, and BMI. Furthermore, 27.1% of patients with cervical anterior longitudinal ligament ossification (OALL) also exhibited cervical OPLL, whereas this occurrence was only observed in 6.9% of patients without cervical OALL. We developed a diagnostic model for cervical OPLL using the ML method. Our findings indicate that patients with cervical OPLL are more likely to undergo posterior cervical surgery, and they exhibit elevated UA levels, higher BMI, and increased age. The prevalence of cervical anterior longitudinal ligament ossification was also significantly higher among patients with cervical OPLL.

Application of machine learning in prediction of bone cement leakage during single-level thoracolumbar percutaneous vertebroplasty.

BACKGROUND: In the elderly, osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) of the thoracolumbar vertebra are common, and percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) is a common surgical method after fracture. Machine learning (ML) was used in this study to assist clinicians in preventing bone cement leakage during PVP surgery. METHODS: The clinical data of 374 patients with thoracolumbar OVCFs who underwent single-level PVP at The First People's Hospital of Chenzhou were chosen. It included 150 patients with bone cement leakage and 224 patients without it. We screened the feature variables using four ML methods and used the intersection to generate the prediction model. In addition, predictive models were used in the validation cohort. RESULTS: The ML method was used to select five factors to create a Nomogram diagnostic model. The nomogram model's AUC was 0.646667, and its C value was 0.647. The calibration curves revealed a consistent relationship between nomogram predictions and actual probabilities. In 91 randomized samples, the AUC of this nomogram model was 0.7555116. CONCLUSION: In this study, we invented a prediction model for bone cement leakage in single-segment PVP surgery, which can help doctors in performing better surgery with reduced risk.

Machine learning-based clustering in cervical spondylotic myelopathy patients to identify heterogeneous clinical characteristics.

Background: Anterior cervical decompression and fusion can effectively treat cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM). Accurately classifying patients with CSM who have undergone anterior cervical decompression and fusion is the premise of precision medicine. In this study, we used machine learning algorithms to classify patients and compare the postoperative efficacy of each classification. Methods: A total of 616 patients with cervical spondylotic myelopathy who underwent anterior cervical decompression and fusion were enrolled. Unsupervised machine learning algorithms (UMLAs) were used to cluster subjects according to similar clinical characteristics. Then, the results of clustering were visualized. The surgical outcomes were used to verify the accuracy of machine learning clustering. Results: We identified two clusters in these patients who had significantly different baseline clinical characteristics, preoperative complications, the severity of neurological symptoms, and the range of decompression required for surgery. UMLA divided the CSM patients into two clusters according to the severity of their illness. The repose to surgical treatment between the clusters was significantly different. Conclusions: Our results showed that UMLA could be used to rationally classify a heterogeneous cohort of CSM patients effectively, and thus, it might be used as the basis for a data-driven platform for identifying the cluster of patients who can respond to a particular treatment method.

Difference between the blood samples of patients with bone and joint tuberculosis and patients with tuberculosis studied using machine learning.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a chronic infectious disease. Bone and joint TB is a common type of extrapulmonary TB and often occurs secondary to TB infection. In this study, we aimed to find the difference in the blood examination results of patients with bone and joint TB and patients with TB by using machine learning (ML) and establish a diagnostic model to help clinicians better diagnose the disease and allow patients to receive timely treatment. Methods: A total of 1,667 patients were finally enrolled in the study. Patients were randomly assigned to the training and validation cohorts. The training cohort included 1,268 patients: 158 patients with bone and joint TB and 1,110 patients with TB. The validation cohort included 399 patients: 48 patients with bone and joint TB and 351 patients with TB. We used three ML methods, namely logistic regression, LASSO regression, and random forest, to screen the differential variables, obtained the most representative variables by intersection to construct the prediction model, and verified the performance of the proposed prediction model in the validation group. Results: The results revealed a great difference in the blood examination results of patients with bone and joint TB and those with TB. Infectious markers such as hs-CRP, ESR, WBC, and NEUT were increased in patients with bone and joint TB. Patients with bone and joint TB were found to have higher liver function burden and poorer nutritional status. The factors screened using ML were PDW, LYM, AST/ALT, BUN, and Na, and the nomogram diagnostic model was constructed using these five factors. In the training cohort, the area under the curve (AUC) value of the model was 0.71182, and the C value was 0.712. In the validation cohort, the AUC value of the model was 0.6435779, and the C value was 0.644. Conclusion: We used ML methods to screen out the blood-specific factors-PDW, LYM, AST/ALT, BUN, and Na+-of bone and joint TB and constructed a diagnostic model to help clinicians better diagnose the disease in the future.