Predictive Risk Factors and Scoring Systems Associated with the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B.

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection constitutes a leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. The identification of HCC risk factors and the development of prognostic risk scores are essential for early diagnosis and prognosis. The aim of this observational, retrospective study was to evaluate baseline risk factors associated with HCC in CHB. Six hundred thirty-two consecutive adults with CHB (n = 632) [median age: 46 (IQR: 24)], attending the outpatients' Hepatology clinics between 01/1993-09/2020 were evaluated. Core promoter mutations and cirrhosis-HCC (GAG-HCC), Chinese University-HCC (CU-HCC), risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B (REACH-B), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and Platelet Age Gender-HBV (PAGE-B) prognostic scores were calculated, and receiver operating curves were used to assess their prognostic performance. HCC was developed in 34 (5.38%) patients. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, advanced age (HR: 1.086, 95% CI: 1.037-1.137), male sex (HR: 7.696, 95% CI: 1.971-30.046), alcohol abuse (HR: 2.903, 95% CI: 1.222-6.987) and cirrhosis (HR: 21.239, 95% CI: 6.001-75.167) at baseline were independently associated with the development of HCC. GAG-HCC and PAGE-B showed the highest performance with c-statistics of 0.895 (95% CI: 0.829-0.961) and 0.857 (95% CI: 0.791-0.924), respectively. In the subgroup of patients with cirrhosis, the performance of all scores declined. When treated and untreated patients were studied separately, the discriminatory ability of the scores differed. In conclusion, HCC development was independently associated with advanced age, male sex, alcohol abuse, and baseline cirrhosis among a diverse population with CHB. GAG-HCC and PAGE-B showed high discriminatory performance to assess the risk of HCC development in these patients, but these performances declined in the subgroup of patients with cirrhosis. Further research to develop scores more specific to certain CHB subgroups is needed.

Successful therapy with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) does not guarantee amelioration of liver damage assessing by transient elastography. A retrospective - prospective multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Preventing disease progression and viral suppression are the main goals of antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography is a reliable non-invasive method to assess liver fibrosis in patients with CHB. Our aim was to explore factors that may affect changes in LSMs during long term tenofovir (TDF) monotherapy in a well characterized cohort of patients with compensated CHB. METHODS: We analyzed serial LSMs in 103 adult patients with CHB who were on TDF monotherapy and had at least three LSMs over a period of 90 months. RESULTS: Twenty-five (24%) patients had advanced fibrosis at baseline. A significant decline in mean LSM between baseline and last visit (8.7 ± 6.2 kPa vs. 6.7 ± 3.3, p = 10- 3) was observed. Twenty-four (23%) patients had progression of liver fibrosis with mean increase in liver stiffness of 2.8 kPa (range: 0.2-10.2 kPa). Multivariate analysis showed that BMI ≥ 25 (OR, 0.014; 95% CI, 0.001-0.157; p = 0.001) and advanced fibrosis (OR, 5.169; 95% CI, 1.240-21.540; p = 0.024) were independently associated with a fibrosis regression of > 30% of liver stiffness compared to baseline value. CONCLUSIONS: In CHB patients TDF monotherapy resulted in liver fibrosis regression, especially in patients with advanced fibrosis. Despite the successful antiviral effect of TDF, 1 out of 4 patients had liver fibrosis progression. Obesity and advanced fibrosis at baseline were independently associated with significant liver fibrosis regression.

HERACLIS-TAF: a multi-centre prospective cohort study on 2-year safety and efficacy of tenofovir alafenamide in patients with chronic hepatitis B with renal and/or bone disorders or risks.

BACKGROUND: Tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) has exhibited a favourable safety profile on estimated glomerular filtration (eGFR) and bone mineral density (BMD), but has not been extensively studied in patients with renal impairment and/or BMD disorders. AIMS: To assess predictors of eGFR changes and other safety and efficacy outcomes during 24-month TAF therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B with renal and/or BMD disorders/risks. METHODS: Adult patients who started TAF at 13 clinics throughout Greece were prospectively included. Main exclusion criteria were hepatitis D, active malignancy and bisphosphonates recent use. MDRD formula was used for eGFR estimation. RESULTS: TAF was initiated in 176 patients (91% switched from another agent). At 12 and 24 months, HBV DNA was undetectable in 97% and 100%, and ALT was normal in 96% and 95% of patients. Median ALT decreased from baseline to month 12/24 (p < 0.001). Mean eGFR decreased from previous treatment initiation to baseline (p < 0.001), increased at 12 months and remained stable at 24 months (p ≤ 0.001). An increase in eGFR of >3 ml/min at 12 month was observed in 50% of patients and was associated mainly with baseline eGFR 30-60 ml/min. In patients with baseline phosphate <2.5 mg/dl, mean serum phosphate increased at month-12/24 (p < 0.001). Median BMD did not change significantly from baseline to 12 months but improved at 24 months (p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In mostly switched patients with renal and/or BMD disorders/risks, eGFR improved after 12-24 months of TAF treatment, especially in patients with baseline eGFR 30-60 ml/min. TAF may also improve low serum phosphate, BMD and ALT, whereas it maintains or induces virological suppression.

Higher free serum cortisol is associated with worse survival in acute variceal bleeding because of cirrhosis: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Critical illness-related corticosteroid insufficiency has been reported in acute variceal bleeding (AVB). In cirrhosis, free serum cortisol (FC) is considered optimal to assess adrenal function. Salivary cortisol (SC) is considered a surrogate for FC. We evaluated FC and its prognostic role in AVB. METHODS: Total serum cortisol, SC, cortisol-binding globulin, and FC (Coolens' formula) were evaluated in AVB (n=38) and in stable cirrhosis (CC) (n=31). A Cox proportional hazards model was evaluated for 6-week survival. RESULTS: In AVB, the median FC and SC levels were higher with worse liver dysfunction [Child-Pugh (CP) A/B/C: 1.59/2.62/3.26 µg/dl, P=0.019; CPA/B/C: 0.48/0.897/1.81 µg/ml, P<0.001, respectively]. In AVB compared with CC, median total serum cortisol: 24.3 versus 11.6 µg/dl (P<0.001), SC: 0.86 versus 0.407 µg/ml (P<0.001); FC 2.4 versus 0.57 µg/dl (P<0.001). In AVB, 5-day rebleeding was 10.5%, and 6-week and total mortality were 21.1 and 23.7%, respectively. Independent associations with 6-week mortality in AVB were FC at least 3.2 µg/dl (P<0.001), hepatocellular carcinoma (P<0.001), CPC (P<0.001), and early rebleeding (P<0.001). Among patients with normal cortisol-binding globulin (n=14) and albumin (n=31), the factors were hepatocellular carcinoma (P=0.003), CP (P=0.003), and FC (P=0.036). SC was also found to be an independent predictor of 6-week mortality (P<0.001). Area under the curve of FC for predicting 6-week mortality was 0.79. CONCLUSION: Higher FC is present in cirrhosis with AVB compared with CC and is associated independently with bleeding-related mortality. However, whether high FC solely indicates the severity of illness or whether there is significant adrenal insufficiency cannot be discerned.