Bacterial growth in patients with low back pain and Modic changes: protocol of a multicentre, case-control biopsy study.

INTRODUCTION: Bacterial infection and Modic changes (MCs) as causes of low back pain (LBP) are debated. Results diverged between two randomised controlled trials examining the effect of amoxicillin with and without clavulanic acid versus placebo on patients with chronic LBP (cLBP) and MCs. Previous biopsy studies have been criticised with regard to methods, few patients and controls, and insufficient measures to minimise perioperative contamination. In this study, we minimise contamination risk, include a control group and optimise statistical power. The main aim is to compare bacterial growth between patients with and without MCs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This multicentre, case-control study examines disc and vertebral body biopsies of patients with cLBP. Cases have MCs at the level of tissue sampling, controls do not. Previously operated patients are included as a subgroup. Tissue is sampled before antibiotic prophylaxis with separate instruments. We will apply microbiological methods and histology on biopsies, and predefine criteria for significant bacterial growth, possible contamination and no growth. Microbiologists, surgeons and pathologist are blinded to allocation of case or control. Primary analysis assesses significant growth in MC1 versus controls and MC2 versus controls separately. Bacterial disc growth in previously operated patients, patients with large MCs and growth from the vertebral body in the fusion group are all considered exploratory analyses. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Regional Committees for Medical and Health Research Ethics in Norway (REC South East, reference number 2015/697) has approved the study. Study participation requires written informed consent. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03406624). Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals, scientific conferences and patient fora. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03406624.

Correction: Clinical improvement after surgery for degenerative cervical myelopathy; A comparison of Patient-Reported Outcome Measures during 12-month follow-up.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264954.].

Longitudinal Relationship Between Reduced Modic Change Edema and Disability and Pain in Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain.

STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analyses of a randomized trial [Antibiotics In Modic changes (MCs) study]. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether or not reduced MC edema over time is related to reduced disability and pain in patients with chronic low back pain (LBP). SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: It is not clear whether or not reduced MC edema implies improved clinical outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Linear regression was conducted separately in 2 subgroups with MC edema at baseline on short tau inversion recovery (STIR) or T1/T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging, respectively. Independent variable: reduced edema (yes/no) at 1 year on STIR or T1/T2-series, respectively. Dependent variable: 1-year score on the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ), Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), or 0 to 10 numeric rating scale for LBP intensity, adjusted for the baseline score, age, smoking, body mass index, physical workload, and baseline edema on STIR (STIR analysis only). Post hoc, we, in addition, adjusted all analyses for baseline edema on STIR, treatment group (amoxicillin/placebo), and prior disc surgery-or for disc degeneration. RESULTS: Among patients with MC edema on STIR at baseline (n = 162), reduced edema on STIR was not significantly related to the RMDQ ( B : -1.0, 95% CI: -2.8, 0.8; P = 0.27), ODI ( B :-1.4, 95% CI: -5.4, 2.6; P = 0.50), or LBP intensity scores ( B : -0.05, 95% CI: -0.8, 0.7; P = 0.90) after 1 year. Among patients with MC edema on T1/T2-series at baseline (n = 116), reduced edema on T1/T2 ( i.e ., reduced volume of the type 1 part of MCs) was not significantly related to RMDQ ( B: -1.7, 95% CI: -3.8, 0.3; P = 0.10) or ODI score ( B : -2.3, 95% CI: -7.1, 2.5; P = 0.34) but was significantly related to LBP intensity at 1 year ( B : -0.9, 95% CI: -1.8, -0.04; P = 0.04; correlation coefficient: 0.24). The post hoc analyses supported these results. CONCLUSION: Reduced MC edema over 1 year was not significantly associated with pain-related disability but was (on T1/T2-series) significantly but weakly related to reduced LBP intensity. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level 3.

Menopausal hormone therapy, oral contraceptives and risk of chronic low back pain: the HUNT Study.

BACKGROUND: There are indications that use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) and oral contraceptives (OC) increases the risk of low back pain (LBP), with higher oestrogen levels involved in the underlying mechanisms. The purpose of the present study was to investigate associations between use of systemic MHT or OC and risk of chronic LBP in a large population-based data set. METHODS: Data were obtained from two surveys in the Trøndelag Health Study in Norway, HUNT2 (1995-1997) and HUNT3 (2006-2008). A cross-sectional study of association between use of systemic MHT and prevalence of chronic LBP comprised 12,974 women aged 40-69 years in HUNT2, with 4007 women reporting chronic LBP. A cohort study involving MHT comprised 6007 women without chronic LBP at baseline in HUNT2, and after 11 years 1245 women reported chronic LBP at follow-up in HUNT3. The cross-sectional study of association with use of OC included 23,593 women aged 20-69 years in HUNT2, with 6085 women reporting chronic LBP. The corresponding cohort study included 10,586 women without chronic LBP at baseline in HUNT2, of whom 2084 women reported chronic LBP in HUNT3. Risk of chronic LBP was examined in both study designs in generalised linear models with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: In the cohort study, current users of systemic MHT at baseline showed a greater risk of chronic LBP (relative risk (RR) 1.30; 95% CI: 1.14-1.49; compared with never users). The risk increased according to duration of MHT use (P for linear trend = 0.003). Known users of systemic MHT based exclusively on oestrogen experienced the highest risk (RR 1.49; 95% CI: 1.16-1.91), but an increased risk was also seen among known users of oestrogen-progestin combination MHT (RR 1.35; 95% CI: 1.16-1.57). A slight increase in risk of chronic LBP was found in the cohort study among former users of OC (RR 1.17; 95% CI: 1.06-1.30; compared with never users). CONCLUSIONS: Long-lasting use of systemic MHT, in particular therapy based on oestrogen only, is associated with greater risk of chronic LBP. Having been a user of OC most likely entails a minor increase in risk.

Genetic Risk Score for Intracranial Aneurysms: Prediction of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage and Role in Clinical Heterogeneity.

BACKGROUND: Recently, common genetic risk factors for intracranial aneurysm (IA) and aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (ASAH) were found to explain a large amount of disease heritability and therefore have potential to be used for genetic risk prediction. We constructed a genetic risk score to (1) predict ASAH incidence and IA presence (combined set of unruptured IA and ASAH) and (2) assess its association with patient characteristics. METHODS: A genetic risk score incorporating genetic association data for IA and 17 traits related to IA (so-called metaGRS) was created using 1161 IA cases and 407 392 controls from the UK Biobank population study. The metaGRS was validated in combination with risk factors blood pressure, sex, and smoking in 828 IA cases and 68 568 controls from the Nordic HUNT population study. Furthermore, we assessed association between the metaGRS and patient characteristics in a cohort of 5560 IA patients. RESULTS: Per SD increase of metaGRS, the hazard ratio for ASAH incidence was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.20-1.51) and the odds ratio for IA presence 1.09 (95% CI, 1.01-1.18). Upon including the metaGRS on top of clinical risk factors, the concordance index to predict ASAH hazard increased from 0.63 (95% CI, 0.59-0.67) to 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.69), while prediction of IA presence did not improve. The metaGRS was statistically significantly associated with age at ASAH (ß=-4.82×10-3 per year [95% CI, -6.49×10-3 to -3.14×10-3]; P=1.82×10-8), and location of IA at the internal carotid artery (odds ratio=0.92 [95% CI, 0.86-0.98]; P=0.0041). CONCLUSIONS: The metaGRS was predictive of ASAH incidence, although with limited added value over clinical risk factors. The metaGRS was not predictive of IA presence. Therefore, we do not recommend using this metaGRS in daily clinical care. Genetic risk does partly explain the clinical heterogeneity of IA warranting prioritization of clinical heterogeneity in future genetic prediction studies of IA and ASAH.

Anterior surgical treatment for cervical degenerative radiculopathy: a prediction model for non-success.

PURPOSE: By using data from the Norwegian Registry for Spine Surgery, we wanted to develop and validate prediction models for non-success in patients operated with anterior surgical techniques for cervical degenerative radiculopathy (CDR). METHODS: This is a multicentre longitudinal study of 2022 patients undergoing CDR surgery and followed for 12 months to find prognostic models for non-success in neck disability and arm pain using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Model performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and a calibration test. Internal validation by bootstrapping re-sampling with 1000 repetitions was applied to correct for over-optimism. The clinical usefulness of the neck disability model was explored by developing a risk matrix for individual case examples. RESULTS: Thirty-eight percent of patients experienced non-success in neck disability and 35% in arm pain. Loss to follow-up was 35% for both groups. Predictors for non-success in neck disability were high physical demands in work, low level of education, pending litigation, previous neck surgery, long duration of arm pain, medium-to-high baseline disability score and presence of anxiety/depression. AUC was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.75, 0.82). For the arm pain model, all predictors for non-success in neck disability, except for anxiety/depression, were found to be significant in addition to foreign mother tongue, smoking and medium-to-high baseline arm pain. AUC was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64, 0.72). CONCLUSION: The neck disability model showed high discriminative performance, whereas the arm pain model was shown to be acceptable. Based upon the models, individualized risk estimates can be made and applied in shared decision-making with patients referred for surgical assessment.

Amoxicillin Did Not Reduce Modic Change Edema in Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain: Subgroup Analyses of a Randomised Trial (the AIM Study).

STUDY DESIGN: Exploratory subgroup analyses of a randomised trial [Antibiotics in Modic changes (AIM) study]. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to assess the effect of amoxicillin versus placebo in reducing Modic change (MC) edema in patients with chronic low back pain. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: The AIM study showed a small, clinically insignificant effect of amoxicillin on pain-related disability in patients with chronic low back pain and MC type 1 (edema type) on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 180 patients were randomised to receive 100 days of amoxicillin or placebo. MC edema was assessed on MRI at baseline and one-year follow-up. Per-protocol analyses were conducted in subgroups with MC edema on short tau inversion recovery (STIR) or T1/T2-weighted MRI at baseline. MC edema reductions (yes/no) in STIR and T1/T2 series were analyzed separately. The effect of amoxicillin in reducing MC edema was analyzed using logistic regression adjusted for prior disk surgery. To assess the effect of amoxicillin versus placebo within the group with the most abundant MC edema on STIR at baseline ("STIR3" group), we added age, STIR3 (yes/no), and STIR3×treatment group (interaction term) as independent variables and compared the marginal means (probabilities of edema reduction). RESULTS: Compared to placebo, amoxicillin did not reduce MC edema on STIR (volume/intensity) in the total sample with edema on STIR at baseline (odds ratio 1.0, 95% CI: 0.5, 2.0; n=141) or within the STIR3 group (probability of edema reduction 0.69, 95% CI: 0.47, 0.92 with amoxicillin and 0.61, 95% CI: 0.43, 0.80 with placebo; n=41). Compared with placebo, amoxicillin did not reduce MC edema in T1/T2 series (volume of the type 1 part of MCs) (odds ratio: 1.0, 95% CI: 0.5, 2.3, n=104). Edema declined in >50% of patients in both treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: From baseline to one-year follow-up, amoxicillin did not reduce MC edema compared with placebo. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 2.

What is success of treatment? Expected outcome scores in cervical radiculopathy patients were much higher than the previously reported cut-off values for success.

PURPOSE: Treatment success can be defined by asking a patient how they perceive their condition compared to prior to treatment, but it can also be defined by establishing success criteria in advance. We evaluated treatment outcome expectations in patients undergoing surgery or non-operative treatment for cervical radiculopathy. METHODS: The first 100 consecutive patients from an ongoing randomized controlled trial (NCT03674619) comparing the effectiveness of surgical and nonsurgical treatment for cervical radiculopathy were included. Patient-reported outcome measures and expected outcome and improvement were obtained before treatment. We compared these with previously published cut-off values for success. Arm pain, neck pain and headache were measured by a numeric rating scale. Neck disability index (NDI) was used to record pain-related disability. We applied Wilcoxon signed-rank test to compare the expected outcome scores for the two treatments. RESULTS: Patients reported mean NDI of 42.2 (95% CI 39.6-44.7) at baseline. The expected mean NDI one year after the treatment was 4 (95% CI 3.0-5.1). The expected mean reduction in NDI was 38.3 (95% CI 35.8-40.8). Calculated as a percentage change score, the patients expected a mean reduction of 91.2% (95% CI 89.2-93.2). Patient expectations were higher regarding surgical treatment for arm pain, neck pain and working ability, P < 0.001, but not for headache. CONCLUSIONS: The expected improvement after treatment of cervical radiculopathy was much higher than the previously reported cut-off values for success. Patients with cervical radiculopathy had higher expectations to surgical treatment.

Clinical improvement after surgery for degenerative cervical myelopathy; A comparison of Patient-Reported Outcome Measures during 12-month follow-up.

OBJECT: Although many patients report clinical improvement after surgery due to degenerative cervical myelopathy, the aim of intervention is to stop progression of spinal cord dysfunction. We wanted to provide estimates and assess achievement rates of Minimal Clinically Important Difference (MCID) at 3- and 12-month follow-up for Neck Disability Index (NDI), Numeric Rating Scale for arm pain (NRS-AP) and neck pain (NRS-NP), Euro-Qol (EQ-5D-3L), and European Myelopathy Score (EMS). METHODS: 614 degenerative cervical myelopathy patients undergoing surgery responded to Patient-Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) prior to, 3 and 12 months after surgery. External criterion was the Global Perceived Effect Scale (1-7), defining MCID as "slightly better", "much better" and "completely recovered". MCID estimates with highest sensitivity and specificity were calculated by Receiver Operating Curves for change and percentage change scores in the whole sample and in anterior and posterior procedural groups. RESULTS: The NDI and NRS-NP percentage change scores were the most accurate PROMs with a MCID of 16%. The change score for NDI and percentage change scores for NDI, NRS-AP and NRS-NP were slightly higher in the anterior procedure group compared to the posterior procedure group, while remaining PROM estimates were similar across procedure type. The MCID achievement rates at 12-month follow-up ranged from 51% in EMS to 62% in NRS-NP. CONCLUSION: The NDI and NRS-NP percentage change scores were the most accurate PROMs to measure clinical improvement after surgery for degenerative cervical myelopathy. We recommend using different cut-off estimates for anterior and posterior approach procedures. A MCID achievement rate of 60% or less must be interpreted in the perspective that the main goal of surgery for degenerative cervical myelopathy is to prevent worsening of the condition.

Correlation between gene expression and MRI STIR signals in patients with chronic low back pain and Modic changes indicates immune involvement.

Disability and distress caused by chronic low back pain (LBP) lacking clear pathoanatomical explanations cause huge problems both for patients and society. A subgroup of patients has Modic changes (MC), identifiable by MRI as vertebral bone marrow lesions. The cause of such changes and their relationship to pain are not yet understood. We explored the pathobiology of these lesions using profiling of gene expression in blood, coupled with an edema-sensitive MRI technique known as short tau inversion recovery (STIR) imaging. STIR images and total RNA from blood were collected from 96 patients with chronic LBP and MC type I, the most inflammatory MC state. We found the expression of 37 genes significantly associated with STIR signal volume, ten genes with edema abundancy (a constructed combination of STIR signal volume, height, and intensity), and one gene with expression levels significantly associated with maximum STIR signal intensity. Gene sets related to interferon signaling, mitochondrial metabolism and defense response to virus were identified as significantly enriched among the upregulated genes in all three analyses. Our results point to inflammation and immunological defense as important players in MC biology in patients with chronic LBP.

Macrophage migration inhibitory factor: a potential biomarker for chronic low back pain in patients with Modic changes.

BACKGROUND: Low back pain (LBP) is a leading cause of disability worldwide, but the aetiology remains poorly understood. Finding relevant biomarkers may lead to better understanding of disease mechanisms. Patients with vertebral endplate bone marrow lesions visualised on MRI as Modic changes (MCs) have been proposed as a distinct LBP phenotype, and inflammatory mediators may be involved in the development of MCs. OBJECTIVES: To identify possible serum biomarkers for LBP in patients with MCs. METHODS: In this case control study serum levels of 40 cytokines were compared between patients with LBP and MC type 1 (n=46) or type 2 (n=37) and healthy controls (n=50). RESULTS: Analyses identified significantly higher levels of six out of 40 cytokines in the MC type 1 group (MC1), and five in the MC type 2 group (MC2) compared with healthy controls. Six cytokines were moderately correlated with pain. Principal component analyses revealed clustering and separation of patients with LBP and controls, capturing 40.8% of the total variance, with 10 cytokines contributing to the separation. Macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) alone accounted for 92% of the total contribution. Further, receiver operating characteristics analysis revealed that MIF showed an acceptable ability to distinguish between patients and controls (area under the curve=0.79). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that cytokines may play a role in LBP with MCs. The clinical significance of the findings is unknown. MIF strongly contributed to clustering of patients with LBP with MCs and controls, and might be a biomarker for MCs. Ultimately, these results may guide future research on novel treatments for this patient group.

Genome-wide association study identifies RNF123 locus as associated with chronic widespread musculoskeletal pain.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Chronic widespread musculoskeletal pain (CWP) is a symptom of fibromyalgia and a complex trait with poorly understood pathogenesis. CWP is heritable (48%-54%), but its genetic architecture is unknown and candidate gene studies have produced inconsistent results. We conducted a genome-wide association study to get insight into the genetic background of CWP. METHODS: Northern Europeans from UK Biobank comprising 6914 cases reporting pain all over the body lasting >3 months and 242 929 controls were studied. Replication of three independent genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms was attempted in six independent European cohorts (n=43 080; cases=14 177). Genetic correlations with risk factors, tissue specificity and colocalisation were examined. RESULTS: Three genome-wide significant loci were identified (rs1491985, rs10490825, rs165599) residing within the genes Ring Finger Protein 123 (RNF123), ATPase secretory pathway Ca2+transporting 1 (ATP2C1) and catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT). The RNF123 locus was replicated (meta-analysis p=0.0002), the ATP2C1 locus showed suggestive association (p=0.0227) and the COMT locus was not replicated. Partial genetic correlation between CWP and depressive symptoms, body mass index, age of first birth and years of schooling were identified. Tissue specificity and colocalisation analysis highlight the relevance of skeletal muscle in CWP. CONCLUSIONS: We report a novel association of RNF123 locus and a suggestive association of ATP2C1 locus with CWP. Both loci are consistent with a role of calcium regulation in CWP. The association with COMT, one of the most studied genes in chronic pain field, was not confirmed in the replication analysis.

Genome-wide association study of intracranial aneurysms identifies 17 risk loci and genetic overlap with clinical risk factors.

Rupture of an intracranial aneurysm leads to subarachnoid hemorrhage, a severe type of stroke. To discover new risk loci and the genetic architecture of intracranial aneurysms, we performed a cross-ancestry, genome-wide association study in 10,754 cases and 306,882 controls of European and East Asian ancestry. We discovered 17 risk loci, 11 of which are new. We reveal a polygenic architecture and explain over half of the disease heritability. We show a high genetic correlation between ruptured and unruptured intracranial aneurysms. We also find a suggestive role for endothelial cells by using gene mapping and heritability enrichment. Drug-target enrichment shows pleiotropy between intracranial aneurysms and antiepileptic and sex hormone drugs, providing insights into intracranial aneurysm pathophysiology. Finally, genetic risks for smoking and high blood pressure, the two main clinical risk factors, play important roles in intracranial aneurysm risk, and drive most of the genetic correlation between intracranial aneurysms and other cerebrovascular traits.

Clinical effect modifiers of antibiotic treatment in patients with chronic low back pain and Modic changes - secondary analyses of a randomised, placebo-controlled trial (the AIM study).

BACKGROUND: Randomised trials on antibiotic treatment for patients with chronic low back pain and vertebral endplate changes visible on MRI (Modic changes) have shown mixed results. A possible explanation might be a real treatment effect in subgroups of the study populations. The purpose of the present study was to explore potential clinical effect modifiers of 3-months oral amoxicillin treatment in patients with chronic low back pain and type I or II Modic changes at the level of a previous lumbar disc herniation. METHODS: We performed analyses of effect modifiers on data from AIM, a double-blind parallel-group multicentre trial. One hundred eighty patients with chronic low back pain, previous disc herniation, Modic change type I (n = 118) or type II (n = 62) were randomised to 3-months oral treatment with 750 mg amoxicillin (n = 89) or placebo (n = 91) three times daily. The primary outcome was the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ) score (possible values 0-24) at 1-year follow-up in the intention-to-treat population. The predefined minimal clinically important between-group mean difference was 4 RMDQ points (not reached in the primary analysis of AIM). Predefined baseline characteristics were analysed as potential effect modifiers, four primary (type I Modic changes, previous disc surgery, positive pain provocation test, high CRP) and five exploratory (disturbed sleep, constant low back pain, short duration of low back pain, younger age, and male) using ANCOVA with interaction terms. RESULTS: None of the four primary potential effect modifiers had strong evidence of modifying the treatment effect. In patients younger than 40 years the difference in mean RMDQ score between the treatment groups was - 4.0 (95%CI, - 6.9 to - 1.2), compared to - 0.5 (95%CI, - 2.3 to 1.3) in patients 40 years or older, both in favour of amoxicillin treatment (exploratory analysis). CONCLUSIONS: We did not find evidence for convincing clinical effect modifiers of antibiotic treatment in patients with chronic low back pain and Modic changes. Our results for younger age in these explorative analyses should not affect clinical treatment decisions without confirmation in future studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02323412 , First registered 23 December 2014.

Criteria for success after surgery for cervical radiculopathy-estimates for a substantial amount of improvement in core outcome measures.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Defining clinically meaningful success criteria from patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) is crucial for clinical audits, research and decision-making. PURPOSE: We aimed to define criteria for a successful outcome 3 and 12 months after surgery for cervical degenerative radiculopathy on recommended PROMs. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study with 12 months follow-up. PATIENT SAMPLE: Patients operated at one or two levels for cervical radiculopathy included in the Norwegian Registry for Spine Surgery (NORspine) from 2011 to 2016. OUTCOME MEASURES: Neck disability index (NDI), Numeric Rating Scale for neck pain (NRS-NP) and arm pain (NRS-AP), health-related quality-of-life EuroQol 3L (EQ-5D), general health status (EQ-VAS). METHODS: We included 2,868 consecutive cervical degenerative radiculopathy patients operated for cervical radiculopathy in one or two levels and included in the Norwegian Registry for Spine Surgery (NORspine). External criterion to determine accuracy and optimal cut-off values for success in the PROMs was the global perceived effect scale. Success was defined as "much better" or "completely recovered." Cut-off values were assessed by analyzing the area under the receiver operating curves for follow-up scores, mean change scores, and percentage change scores. RESULTS: All PROMs showed high accuracy in defining success and nonsuccess and only minor differences were found between 3- and 12-month scores. At 12 months, the area under the receiver operating curves for follow-up scores were 0.86 to 0.91, change scores were 0.74 to 0.87, and percentage change scores were 0.74 to 0.91. Percentage scores of NDI and NRS-AP showed the best accuracy. The optimal cut-off values for each PROM showed considerable overlap across those operated due to disc herniation and spondylotic foraminal stenosis. CONCLUSIONS: All PROMs, especially NDI and NRS-AP, showed good to excellent discriminative ability in distinguishing between a successful and nonsuccessful outcome after surgery due to cervical radiculopathy. Percentage change scores are recommended for use in research and clinical practice.

Association of Modic change types and their short tau inversion recovery signals with clinical characteristics- a cross sectional study of chronic low back pain patients in the AIM-study.

BACKGROUND: Modic Changes (MCs, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) signal changes in the vertebral bone marrow extending from the vertebral endplate) may represent a subgroup of nonspecific chronic low back pain that could benefit from a specific management. The primary aim was to compare clinical characteristics between patients with type 1 versus type 2 MCs. The secondary aim was to explore associations between clinical characteristics and MC related short tau inversion recovery (STIR) signals. METHODS: This cross-sectional study used baseline data prospectively collected between 2015 and 2017 on the 180 patients included in the AIM-study (Antibiotics In Modic changes), a randomized controlled trial in a Norwegian hospital out-patient setting of patients with chronic low back pain, a lumbar disc herniation within the last 2 years, low back pain intensity score ≥ 5 (on a 0-10 scale) and current type 1 or type 2 MCs at the previously herniated lumbar disc level. We used prespecified clinical characteristics including self-report measures, physiologic measures and functional measures from clinical history and examination. The diagnostic accuracy of various clinical characteristics to discriminate between patients with type 1 MCs (with or without additional type 2 MCs) and patents with type 2 MCs only (not type 1) were assessed by calculating the area under the receiver-operating curve. We assessed the correlations of clinical characteristics with details of MC related STIR signal increase. RESULTS: No clinical characteristic differed between patients with type 1 (n = 118) versus type 2 (but not type 1) (n = 62) MCs. The clinical characteristics showed no/minor differences or no/weak correlations with MC related STIR signal increase. Patients with a positive Springing test (at any lumbar level) had slightly less volume of STIR signal increase than those with a negative test (mean difference 1.3 on a 0-48 scale, 95% CI 0.3 to 2.3). CONCLUSION: Clinical characteristics were similar for patients with type 1 MCs and patients with type 2 MCs, and showed no clinically relevant correlations with MC related STIR signal increase. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02323412, First registered 23 December 2014.

Cost-utility analysis of antibiotic treatment in patients with chronic low back pain and Modic changes: results from a randomised, placebo-controlled trial in Norway (the AIM study).

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-utility of 100 days of antibiotics in patients with chronic low back pain (LBP) and type I or II Modic changes included in the Antibiotic treatment In patients with chronic low back pain and Modic changes (AIM) study. DESIGN: A cost-utility analysis from a societal and healthcare perspective alongside a double-blinded, parallel group, placebo, multicentre trial. SETTING: Hospital outpatient clinics at six hospitals in Norway. The main results from the AIM study showed a small effect in back-related disability in favour of the antibiotics group, and slightly larger in those with type I Modic changes, but this effect was below the pre-defined threshold for clinically relevant effect. PARTICIPANTS: 180 patients with chronic LBP, previous disc herniation and Modic changes type I (n=118) or type II (n=62) were randomised to antibiotic treatment (n=89) or placebo-control (n=91). INTERVENTIONS: Oral treatment with either 750 mg amoxicillin or placebo three times daily for 100 days. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by EuroQoL-5D over 12 months and costs for healthcare and productivity loss measured in Euro (€1=NOK 10), in the intention-to-treat population. Cost-utility was expressed in incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS: Mean (SD) total cost was €21 046 (20 105) in the amoxicillin group and €19 076 (19 356) in the placebo group, mean difference €1970 (95% CI; -3835 to 7774). Cost per QALY gained was €24 625. In those with type I Modic changes, the amoxicillin group had higher healthcare consumption than the placebo group, resulting in €39 425 per QALY gained. Given these ICERs and a willingness-to-pay threshold of €27 500 (NOK 275 000), the probability of amoxicillin being cost-effective was 51%. Even when the willingness-to-pay threshold increased to €55 000, the probability of amoxicillin being cost-effective was never higher than 53%. CONCLUSIONS: Amoxicillin treatment showed no evidence of being cost-effective for people with chronic LBP and Modic changes during 1-year follow-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02323412.

A randomised controlled trial comparing the effectiveness of surgical and nonsurgical treatment for cervical radiculopathy.

BACKGROUND: Cervical radiculopathy is usually caused by disc herniation or spondylosis. The prognosis is expected to be good in most patients, but there is limited scientific evidence on the indications for nonsurgical and surgical treatments. The aim of the present study is to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of surgical and nonsurgical treatment in two trials - including disc herniation and spondylosis, respectively, and to evaluate factors that contribute to better decision making. METHODS/DESIGN: Patients with disabling radicular arm pain and MRI-proven cervical disc herniation or spondylosis will be randomised to receive nonsurgical or surgical treatment. The follow-up period is one year and the sample size is estimated to be 50 for each arm in the two trials, giving a total of 200 patients. The primary outcomes are the Neck Disability Index and arm pain. Secondary outcomes include neck pain; EQ-5D and costs to evaluate cost-effectiveness; prognostic factors; CT and MRI scans, to estimate intervertebral foraminal area and nerve root compression; and the expected minimal improvement for willingness to undergo treatment. DISCUSSION: The outcomes of this study will contribute to better decision making in the treatment of cervical radiculopathy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT03674619, on September 17, 2018.

Lumbar spine surgery across 15 years: trends, complications and reoperations in a longitudinal observational study from Norway.

BACKGROUND: Studies from different Western countries have reported a rapid increase in spinal surgery rates, an increase that exceeds by far the growing incidence rates of spinal disorders in the general population. There are few studies covering all lumbar spine surgery and no previous studies from Norway. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to investigate trends in all lumbar spine surgery in Norway over 15 years, including length of hospital stay, and rates of complications and reoperations. DESIGN: A longitudinal observational study over 15 years using hospital patient administrative data and sociodemographic data from the National Registry in Norway. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥18 years discharged from Norwegian public hospitals between 1999 and 2013. OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual rates of simple (microsurgical discectomy, decompression) and complex surgical procedures (fusion, disc prosthesis) in the lumbar spine. RESULTS: The rate of lumbar spine surgery increased by 54%, from 78 (95% CI (75 to 80)) to 120 (107 to 113) per 100 000, from 1999 to 2013. More men had simple surgery whereas more women had complex surgery. Among elderly people over 75 years, lumbar surgery increased by a factor of five during the 15-year period. The rates of complications were low, but increased from 0.7% in 1999 to 2.4% in 2013. CONCLUSIONS: There was a substantial increase in lumbar spine surgery in Norway from 1999 to 2013, similar to trends in other Western world countries. The rise in lumbar surgery among elderly people represents a significant workload and challenge for health services, given our aging population.