Preferences of patients, clinicians, and healthy controls for the management of a Bethesda III thyroid nodule.

BACKGROUND: Active surveillance is propagated as an alternative for hemithyroidectomy in the management of Bethesda III thyroid nodules. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey questioned respondents on their willingness to accept risks related to active surveillance and hemithyroidectomy. RESULTS: In case of active surveillance, respondents (129 patients, 46 clinicians, and 66 healthy controls) were willing to accept a risk of 10%-15% for thyroid cancer and 15% for needing more extensive surgery in the future. Respondents were willing to accept a risk of 22.5%-30% for hypothyroidism after hemithyroidectomy. Patients and controls were willing to accept a higher risk on permanent voice changes compared with clinicians (10% vs. 3%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Real-life risks associated which active surveillance and hemithyroidectomy for Bethesda III nodules are equivalent or less than the risks people are willing to accept. Clinicians accepted less risk for permanent voice changes.

Dyadic Discrete Choice Experiments Enable Persons with Dementia and Informal Caregivers to Participate in Health Care Decision Making: A Mixed Methods Study.

BACKGROUND: Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) may facilitate persons with dementia and informal caregivers to state care preferences. DCEs can be cognitively challenging for persons with dementia. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to design a dementia friendly dyadic DCE that enables persons with dementia and informal caregivers to provide input individually and jointly, by testing the number of attributes and choice tasks persons with dementia can complete and providing insight in their DCE decision-making process. METHODS: This study included three DCE rounds: 1) persons with dementia, 2) informal caregivers, and 3) persons with dementia and informal caregivers together. A flexible DCE design was employed, with increasing choice task complexity to explore cognitive limitations in decision-making. Summary statistics and bivariate comparisons were calculated. A qualitative think-aloud approach was used to gain insight in the DCE decision-making processes. Transcripts were analyzed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Fifteen person with dementia, 15 informal caregiver, and 14 dyadic DCEs were conducted. In the individual DCE, persons with dementia completed six choice tasks (median), and 80% could complete a choice task with least three attributes. In the dyadic DCE persons with dementia completed eight choice tasks (median) and could handle slightly more attributes. Qualitative results included themes of core components in DCE decision-making such as: understanding the choice task, attribute and level perception, option attractiveness evaluation, decision rule selection, and preference adaptation. CONCLUSION: Persons with dementia can use simple DCE designs. The dyadic DCE was promising for dyads to identify overlapping and discrepant care preferences while reaching consensus.

Can healthcare choice be predicted using stated preference data? The role of model complexity in a discrete choice experiment about colorectal cancer screening.

INTRODUCTION: The validity of discrete choice experiments (DCEs) is crucial to its usage in healthcare decision-making, but there is only a limited number of health contexts in which external validity is demonstrated. This study aims to assess the internal and external validity of the DCE in the context of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, and gather insights into the discrepancy between stated and revealed preferences. METHODS: Stated and revealed preferences were elicited on an individual level from Dutch residents eligible for CRC screening in a DCE and a field experiment, respectively (N = 568). To identify the determinants of CRC screening participation and their relative importance, five random utility maximisation models that varied in complexity were used. We assessed the accuracy with which the models based on stated preferences predict individual-level screening choice in a holdout task (internal validity) and in the actual screening choice (external validity). Insights into the discrepancy between stated and revealed preferences were gathered by comparing groups of respondents. RESULTS: Our findings show high internal and external validity. Choices could be accurately predicted for 95% of the respondents in the holdout task, and 90% in the actual screening choice. When scale and preference heterogeneity were taken into account model fit improved; individual-level prediction accuracy slightly increased for the holdout task but not for the actual screening choice. Respondents for whom stated preferences matched revealed preferences were generally in better health and found the GP's support for their screening decision more important. DISCUSSION: Evidence was found that revealed preferences can be predicted accurately on an individual level. Incorporating heterogeneity improved internal validity but not external validity. Differences between stated and revealed preferences can be attributed to respondents' health and the support of their GP. We suggest researchers to continue investigating the internal and external validity of discrete choice experiments, and the role of model complexity.

Efficacy, cost-minimization, and budget impact of a personalized discharge letter for basal cell carcinoma patients to reduce low-value follow-up care.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of keratinocyte carcinomas is high and rapidly growing. Approximately 80% of keratinocyte carcinomas consist of basal cell carcinomas (BCC) with 50% of these being considered as low-risk tumors. Nevertheless, 83% of the low-risk BCC patients were found to receive more follow-up care than recommended according to the Dutch BCC guideline, which is one visit post-treatment for this group. More efficient management could reduce unnecessary follow-up care and related costs. OBJECTIVES: To study the efficacy, cost-utility, and budget impact of a personalized discharge letter for low-risk BCC patients compared with usual care (no personalized letter). METHODS: In a multi-center intervention study, a personalized discharge letter in addition to usual care was compared to usual care in first-time BCC patients. Model-based cost-utility and budget impact analyses were conducted, using individual patient data gathered via surveys. The outcome measures were number of follow-up visits, costs and quality adjusted life years (QALY) per patient. RESULTS: A total of 473 first-time BCC patients were recruited. The personalized discharge letter decreased the number of follow-up visits by 14.8% in the first year. The incremental costs after five years were -€24.45 per patient. The QALYs were 4.12 after five years and very similar in both groups. The national budget impact was -€2,7 million after five years. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of a personalized discharge letter decreases the number of unnecessary follow-up visits and implementing the intervention in a large eligible population would results in substantial cost savings, contributing to restraining the growing BCC costs.

Surgeons preference for lumbar disk surgery: a discrete choice experiment.

PURPOSE: Multiple surgical techniques are practiced to treat sciatica caused by lumbar disk herniation. It is unknown which factors surgeons find important when offering certain surgical techniques. The objective of this study is threefold: 1) determine the relative weight surgeons place on various characteristics of sciatica treatment, 2) determine the trade-offs surgeons make between these characteristics and 3) identify preference heterogeneity for sciatica treatment. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment was conducted among members of two international neurosurgical organizations. Surgeons were asked on their preferences for surgical techniques using specific scenarios based on five characteristics: effectiveness on leg pain, risk of recurrent disk herniation, duration of postoperative back pain, risk of complications and recovery period. RESULTS: Six-hundred and forty-one questionnaires were filled in, the majority by neurosurgeons. All characteristics significantly influenced the preferences of the respondents. Overall, the risk of complications was the most important characteristic in the decision to opt-in or opt-out for surgery (35.7%). Risk of recurrent disk herniation (19.6%), effectiveness on leg pain (18.8%), postoperative back pain duration (13.5%) and length of recovery period (12.4%) followed. Four latent classes were identified, which was partly explained by the tenure of the surgeon. Surgeons were willing to trade-off 57.8% of effectiveness on leg pain to offer a treatment that has a 1% complication risk instead of 10%. CONCLUSION: In the context of this discrete choice experiment, it is shown that neurosurgeons consider the risk of complications as most important when a surgical technique is offered to treat sciatica, while the risk of recurrent disk herniation and effectiveness are also important factors. Neurosurgeons were prepared to trade off substantial amounts of effectiveness to achieve lower complication rates.

Patient preferences for treatment of lumbar disc herniation: a discrete choice experiment.

OBJECTIVE: Lumbar discectomy is a frequently performed procedure to treat sciatica caused by lumbar disc herniation. Multiple surgical techniques are available, and the popularity of minimally invasive surgical techniques is increasing worldwide. Clinical outcomes between these techniques may not show any substantial differences. As lumbar discectomy is an elective procedure, patients' own preferences play an important role in determining the procedure they will undergo. The aims of the current study were to determine the relative preference weights patients apply to various attributes of lumbar discectomy, determine if patient preferences change after surgery, identify preference heterogeneity for choosing surgery for sciatica, and calculate patient willingness to pay for other attributes. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted among patients with sciatica caused by lumbar disc herniation. A questionnaire was administered to patients before they underwent surgery and to an independent sample of patients who had already undergone surgery. The DCE required patients to choose between two surgical techniques or to opt out from 12 choice sets with alternating characteristic levels: waiting time for surgery, out-of-pocket costs, size of the scar, need of general anesthesia, need for hospitalization, effect on leg pain, and duration of the recovery period. RESULTS: A total of 287 patients were included in the DCE analysis. All attributes, except scar size, had a significant influence on the overall preferences of patients. The effect on leg pain was the most important characteristic in the decision for a surgical procedure (by 44.8%). The potential out-of-pocket costs for the procedure (28.8%), the wait time (12.8%), need for general anesthesia (7.5%), need for hospitalization (4.3%), and the recovery period (1.8%) followed. Preferences were independent of the scores on patient-reported outcome measures and baseline characteristics. Three latent classes could be identified with specific preference patterns. Willingness-to-pay was the highest for effectiveness on leg pain, with patients willing to pay €3133 for a treatment that has a 90% effectiveness instead of 70%. CONCLUSIONS: Effect on leg pain is the most important factor for patients in deciding to undergo surgery for sciatica. Not all proposed advantages of minimally invasive spine surgery (e.g., size of the scar, no need of general anesthesia) are necessarily perceived as advantages by patients. Spine surgeons should propose surgical techniques for sciatica, not only based on own ability and proposed eligibility, but also based on patient preferences as is part of shared decision making.

What do patients and dermatologists prefer regarding low-risk basal cell carcinoma follow-up care? A discrete choice experiment.

BACKGROUND: Follow-up after low-risk basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is being provided more frequently than recommended by guidelines. To design an acceptable strategy to successfully reduce this 'low-value' care, it is important to obtain insights into the preferences of patients and dermatologists. OBJECTIVE: To determine the preferences and needs of patients and dermatologists to reduce low-risk BCC follow-up care, and the trade-offs they are willing to make. METHODS: A questionnaire including a discrete choice experiment was created, containing attributes regarding amount of follow-up, continuity of care, method of providing addition information, type of healthcare provider, duration of follow-up visits and skin examination. In total, 371 BCC patients and all Dutch dermatologists and dermatology residents (n = 620) were invited to complete the questionnaire. A panel latent class model was used for analysis. RESULTS: Eighty-four dermatologists and 266 BCC patients (21% and 72% response rates respectively) completed the discrete choice experiment. If the post-treatment visit was performed by the same person as treatment provider and a hand-out was provided to patients containing personalised information, the acceptance of having no additional follow-up visits (i.e. following the guidelines) would increase from 55% to 77% by patients. Female patients and older dermatologists, however, are less willing to accept the guidelines and prefer additional follow-up visits. LIMITATIONS: The low response rate of dermatologists. CONCLUSION: This discrete choice experiment revealed a feasible strategy to substantially reduce costs, while maintaining quality of care, based on the preferences and needs of BCC patients, which is supported by dermatologists.

Preferences of patients and clinicians for treatment of Graves' disease: a discrete choice experiment.

OBJECTIVE: Treatment options for Graves' disease (GD) consist of antithyroid drugs (ATD), radioactive iodine (RAI) and total thyroidectomy (TT). Guidelines recommend to discuss these options with patients, taking into account patients' preferences. This study aims to evaluate and compare patients' and clinicians' preferences and the trade-offs made in choosing treatment. DESIGN AND METHODS: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was performed with GD patients with a first diagnosis or recurrence in the previous year, and with clinicians. Participants were offered hypothetical treatment options which differed in type of treatment, rates of remission, severe side effects, permanent voice changes and hypocalcemia. Preference heterogeneity was assessed by latent-class analysis. RESULTS: In this study, 286 (82%) patients and 61 (18%) clinicians participated in the DCE. All treatment characteristics had a significant effect on treatment choice (P < 0.05). Remission rate was the most important determinant and explained 37 and 35% of choices in patients and clinicians, respectively. Both patients and clinicians preferred ATD over surgery and RAI. A strong negative preference toward RAI treatment was observed in a subclass of patients, whereas clinicians preferred RAI over surgery. CONCLUSION: For both patients and clinicians, remission rate was the most important determinant of treatment choice and ATD was the most preferred treatment option. Patients had a negative preference toward RAI compared to alternatives, whereas clinicians preferred RAI over surgery. Clinicians should be aware that their personal attitude toward RAI differs from that of their patients. This study on patients' and clinicians' preferences can support shared decision making and thereby improve clinical treatment.

What Factors Influence Non-Participation Most in Colorectal Cancer Screening? A Discrete Choice Experiment.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Non-participation in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening needs to be decreased to achieve its full potential as a public health strategy. To facilitate successful implementation of CRC screening towards unscreened individuals, this study aimed to quantify the impact of screening and individual characteristics on non-participation in CRC screening. METHODS: An online discrete choice experiment partly based on qualitative research was used among 406 representatives of the Dutch general population aged 55-75 years. In the discrete choice experiment, respondents were offered a series of choices between CRC screening scenarios that differed on five characteristics: effectiveness of the faecal immunochemical screening test, risk of a false-negative outcome, test frequency, waiting time for faecal immunochemical screening test results and waiting time for a colonoscopy follow-up test. The discrete choice experiment data were analysed in a systematic manner using random-utility-maximisation choice processes with scale and/or preference heterogeneity (based on 15 individual characteristics) and/or random intercepts. RESULTS: Screening characteristics proved to influence non-participation in CRC screening (21.7-28.0% non-participation rate), but an individual's characteristics had an even higher impact on CRC screening non-participation (8.4-75.5% non-participation rate); particularly the individual's attitude towards CRC screening followed by whether the individual had participated in a cancer screening programme before, the decision style of the individual and the educational level of the individual. Our findings provided a high degree of confidence in the internal-external validity. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that although screening characteristics proved to influence non-participation in CRC screening, a respondent's characteristics had a much higher impact on CRC screening non-participation. Policy makers and physicians can use our study insights to improve and tailor their communication plans regarding (CRC) screening for unscreened individuals.

Are Healthcare Choices Predictable? The Impact of Discrete Choice Experiment Designs and Models.

BACKGROUND: Lack of evidence about the external validity of discrete choice experiments (DCEs) is one of the barriers that inhibit greater use of DCEs in healthcare decision making. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the number of alternatives in a DCE choice task should reflect the actual decision context, and how complex the choice model needs to be to be able to predict real-world healthcare choices. METHODS: Six DCEs were used, which varied in (1) medical condition (involving choices for influenza vaccination or colorectal cancer screening) and (2) the number of alternatives per choice task. For each medical condition, 1200 respondents were randomized to one of the DCE formats. The data were analyzed in a systematic way using random-utility-maximization choice processes. RESULTS: Irrespective of the number of alternatives per choice task, the choice for influenza vaccination and colorectal cancer screening was correctly predicted by DCE at an aggregate level, if scale and preference heterogeneity were taken into account. At an individual level, 3 alternatives per choice task and the use of a heteroskedastic error component model plus observed preference heterogeneity seemed to be most promising (correctly predicting >93% of choices). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that DCEs are able to predict choices-mimicking real-world decisions-if at least scale and preference heterogeneity are taken into account. Patient characteristics (eg, numeracy, decision-making style, and general attitude for and experience with the health intervention) seem to play a crucial role. Further research is needed to determine whether this result remains in other contexts.

Cost-effectiveness of routine screening for Lynch syndrome in endometrial cancer patients up to 70years of age.

PURPOSE: To assess cost-effectiveness of routine screening for Lynch Syndrome (LS) in endometrial cancer (EC) patients ≤70years of age. METHODS: Consecutive EC patients ≤70years of age were screened for LS by analysis of microsatellite instability, immunohistochemistry and MLH1 hypermethylation. Costs and health benefit in life years gained (LYG) included surveillance for LS carriers among EC patients and relatives. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) comparing LS screening among EC patients ≤70years with ≤50years and the revised Bethesda guidelines. RESULTS: Screening for LS in 179 EC patients identified 7 LS carriers; 1 was ≤50 and 6 were 51-70years. Per age category 18 and 9 relatives were identified as LS carrier. Screening resulted in 74,7 LYG (45,4 and 29,3 LYG per age category). The ICER for LS screening in EC patients ≤70 compared with ≤50years was €5,252/LYG. The revised Bethesda guidelines missed 4/7 (57%) LS carriers among EC patients. The ICER for LS screening in EC patients ≤70years of age compared with the revised Bethesda guidelines was €6,668/LYG. Both ICERs remained <€16,000/LYG in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Routine LS screening in EC patients ≤70years is a cost-effective strategy, allowing colorectal cancer prevention in EC patients and their relatives.

Exploring how individuals complete the choice tasks in a discrete choice experiment: an interview study.

BACKGROUND: To be able to make valid inferences on stated preference data from a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) it is essential that researchers know if participants were actively involved, understood and interpreted the provided information correctly and whether they used complex decision strategies to make their choices and thereby acted in accordance with the continuity axiom. METHODS: During structured interviews, we explored how 70 participants evaluated and completed four discrete choice tasks aloud. Hereafter, additional questions were asked to further explore if participants understood the information that was provided to them and whether they used complex decision strategies (continuity axiom) when making their choices. Two existing DCE questionnaires on rotavirus vaccination and prostate cancer-screening served as case studies. RESULTS: A large proportion of the participants was not able to repeat the exact definition of the risk attributes as explained to them in the introduction of the questionnaire. The majority of the participants preferred more optimal over less optimal risk attribute levels. Most participants (66%) mentioned three or more attributes when motivating their decisions, thereby acting in accordance with the continuity axiom. However, 16 out of 70 participants continuously mentioned less than three attributes when motivating their decision. Lower educated and less literate participants tended to mention less than three attributes when motivating their decision and used trading off between attributes less often as a decision-making strategy. CONCLUSION: The majority of the participants seemed to have understood the provided information about the choice tasks, the attributes, and the levels. They used complex decision strategies (continuity axiom) and are therefore capable to adequately complete a DCE. However, based on the participants' age, educational level and health literacy additional, actions should be undertaken to ensure that participants understand the choice tasks and complete the DCE as presumed.

Cost-effectiveness of routine screening for Lynch syndrome in colorectal cancer patients up to 70 years of age.

PURPOSE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of routine Lynch syndrome (LS) screening among colorectal cancer (CRC) patients ≤70 years of age. METHODS: A population-based series of CRC patients ≤70 years of age was routinely screened for LS. We calculated life years gained (LYG) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for different age cutoffs and comparing age-targeted screening with the revised Bethesda guidelines. RESULTS: Screening 1,117 CRC patients identified 23 LS patients, of whom 7 were ≤50 years of age, 7 were 51-60, and 9 were 61-70. Additionally, 70 LS carriers were identified among relatives (14, 42, and 14 per age category). Screening amounted to 205.9 LYG or 43.6, 118.0, and 44.3 LYG per age category. ICERs were [euro ]4.226/LYG for screening CRC patients ≤60 years of age compared with those ≤50 years and [euro ]7.051/LYG for screening CRC patients ≤70 years compared with those ≤60 years. The revised Bethesda guidelines identified 70 of 93 (75%) LS carriers. The ICER for LS screening in CRC patients ≤70 years of age compared with the revised Bethesda guidelines was [euro ]7.341/LYG. All ICERs remained less than [euro ]13.000/LYG in one-way sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Routine LS screening by analysis of microsatellite instability, immunohistochemistry, and MLH1 hypermethylation in CRC patients ≤70 years of age is a cost-effective strategy with important clinical benefits for CRC patients and their relatives.Genet Med 18 10, 966-973.

Future pandemics and vaccination: Public opinion and attitudes across three European countries.

BACKGROUND: Understanding public opinion and attitudes regarding vaccination is crucial for successful outbreak management and effective communication at the European level. METHODS: We explored national differences by conducting focus group discussions in The Netherlands, Poland and Sweden. Discussions were structured using concepts from behavioural models. RESULTS: Thematic analysis revealed that participants would base their vaccination decision on trade-offs between perceived benefits and barriers of the vaccine also taking into account the seriousness of the new outbreak. Except for those having chronic diseases, participants expected a low infection risk, resulting in a low willingness to get vaccinated. Information about the health status of cases was considered important since this might change perceived susceptibility. Participants displayed concerns about vaccine safety due to the limited available time to produce and test vaccines in the acute situation of a new pandemic. Swedish participants mentioned their tendency of doing the right thing and following the rules, as well as to get vaccinated because of solidarity with other citizens and social influences. This appeared much less prominent for the Dutch and Polish participants. However, Swedish participants indicated that their negative experiences during the Influenza A/H1N1 2009 pandemic decreases their acceptance of future vaccinations. Polish participants lacked trust in their national (public) health system and government, and were therefore sceptical about the availability and quality of vaccines in Poland. CONCLUSIONS: Although participants overall expressed similar considerations, important differences between countries stand out, such as previous vaccination experiences, the degree of adherence to social norms, and the degree of trust in health authorities.

Patients' Preferences for Treatment for Dupuytren's Disease: A Discrete Choice Experiment.

BACKGROUND: Although in modern medicine, patients' preferences are important, these have never been defined for characteristics of Dupuytren treatment. This study determines these patients' preferences using a discrete choice experiment. METHODS: A multicenter discrete choice experiment study was conducted among patients with Dupuytren's disease who had been treated previously. Patients were asked about their preferences for attributes of Dupuytren treatments using scenarios based on treatment method, major and minor complication rates, recurrence rates, convalescence, residual extension deficit after treatment, and aesthetic results. The relative importance of these attributes and the tradeoffs patients were willing to make between them were analyzed using a panel latent class logit model. RESULTS: Five-hundred six patients completed the questionnaire. All above-mentioned attributes proved to influence patients' preferences for Dupuytren treatment (p < 0.05). Preference heterogeneity was substantial. Men who stated they performed heavy labor made different tradeoffs than women or men who did not perform heavy labor. In general, recurrence rate (36 percent) and extension deficit (28 percent) were the most important attributes in making treatment choices, followed by minor complication rate (13 percent). Patients accepted an increase in recurrent disease of 11 percent if they could receive needle aponeurotomy treatment instead of limited fasciectomy. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the importance of low recurrence rates and complete contracture corrections, but also emphasizes the significance of low complication rates. Convalescence was not an attribute, which scored high. The preference heterogeneity shows that patient consultations need to be targeted differently, which may result in different treatment decisions, depending on patient characteristics and preferences.

Patients' Preferences for Surgical Management of Esophageal Cancer: A Discrete Choice Experiment.

BACKGROUND: Obtaining insight into patients' preferences is important to optimize cancer care. We investigated patients' preferences for surgical management of esophageal cancer. METHODS: We conducted a discrete choice experiment among adult patients who had undergone esophagectomy for adenocarcinoma or squamous cell cancer of the esophagus. Patients' preferences were quantified with regression analysis using scenarios based on five aspects: risk of in-hospital mortality, risk of persistent symptoms, chance of 5-year survival, risk of surgical and non-surgical complications, and hospital volume of esophageal cancer surgery. RESULTS: The response rate was 68 % (104/142). All aspects proved to influence patients' preferences (p < 0.05). Persisting gastrointestinal symptoms and 5-year survival were the most important attributes, but preferences varied between patients. On average, patients were willing to trade-off 9.5 % (CI 2.4-16.6 %) 5-year survival chance to obtain a surgical treatment with 30 % lower risk of gastrointestinal symptoms, or 8.1 % (CI 4.0-12.2 %) 5-year survival chance for being treated in a high instead of a low-volume hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Patients are willing to trade-off some 5-year survival chance to achieve an improvement in early outcomes. Given the preference heterogeneity among participants, the present study underlines the importance of a patient-tailored approach when discussing prognosis and treatment.

Have preferences of girls changed almost 3 years after the much debated start of the HPV vaccination program in The Netherlands? A discrete choice experiment.

OBJECTIVES: To assess how girls' preferences have changed almost 3 years after the much debated start of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted among girls aged 11-15 years who were invited, or were not yet invited, to get vaccinated. A panel latent class model was used to determine girls' preferences for vaccination based on five characteristics: degree of protection against cervical cancer; duration of protection; risk of mild side-effects; age of vaccination; and the number of required doses of the vaccine. RESULTS: The response rate was 85% (500/592). Most girls preferred vaccination at age 14 years (instead of at age 9 years) and a 2-dose scheme (instead of the current 3-dose scheme). Girls were willing to trade-off 7% (CI: 3.2% to 10.8%) of the degree of protection to have 10% less risk of mild side-effects, and 4% (CI: 1.2% to 5.9%) to receive 2 doses instead of 3 doses. Latent class analyses showed that there was preference heterogeneity among girls, i.e., higher educated girls and HPV vaccinated girls had a higher probability to opt for HPV vaccination at a higher age than lower educated girls or non-vaccinated girls. CONCLUSIONS: Three years after the start of HPV vaccination program the risk of mild side-effects and age at vaccination seem to have become less important. For the Dutch national immunization program, we recommend not to lower the current target age of 12 years. A 2-dose scheme may result in a higher uptake and we recommend that if this scheme is introduced, it needs to receive adequate publicity.

The added value of percentage of free to total prostate-specific antigen, PCA3, and a kallikrein panel to the ERSPC risk calculator for prostate cancer in prescreened men.

BACKGROUND: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing has limited accuracy for the early detection of prostate cancer (PCa). OBJECTIVE: To assess the value added by percentage of free to total PSA (%fPSA), prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3), and a kallikrein panel (4k-panel) to the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) multivariable prediction models: risk calculator (RC) 4, including transrectal ultrasound, and RC 4 plus digital rectal examination (4+DRE) for prescreened men. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants were invited for rescreening between October 2007 and February 2009 within the Dutch part of the ERSPC study. Biopsies were taken in men with a PSA level ≥3.0 ng/ml or a PCA3 score ≥10. Additional analyses of the 4k-panel were done on serum samples. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Outcome was defined as PCa detectable by sextant biopsy. Receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analyses were performed to compare the predictive capabilities of %fPSA, PCA3, 4k-panel, the ERSPC RCs, and their combinations in logistic regression models. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: PCa was detected in 119 of 708 men. The %fPSA did not perform better univariately or added to the RCs compared with the RCs alone. In 202 men with an elevated PSA, the 4k-panel discriminated better than PCA3 when modelled univariately (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.78 vs. 0.62; p=0.01). The multivariable models with PCA3 or the 4k-panel were equivalent (AUC: 0.80 for RC 4+DRE). In the total population, PCA3 discriminated better than the 4k-panel (univariate AUC: 0.63 vs. 0.56; p=0.05). There was no statistically significant difference between the multivariable model with PCA3 (AUC: 0.73) versus the model with the 4k-panel (AUC: 0.71; p=0.18). The multivariable model with PCA3 performed better than the reference model (0.73 vs. 0.70; p=0.02). Decision curves confirmed these patterns, although numbers were small. CONCLUSIONS: Both PCA3 and, to a lesser extent, a 4k-panel have added value to the DRE-based ERSPC RC in detecting PCa in prescreened men. PATIENT SUMMARY: We studied the added value of novel biomarkers to previously developed risk prediction models for prostate cancer. We found that inclusion of these biomarkers resulted in an increase in predictive ability.

Risk prediction scores for recurrence and progression of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer: an international validation in primary tumours.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the validity of two risk scores for patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer in different European settings, in patients with primary tumours. METHODS: We included 1,892 patients with primary stage Ta or T1 non-muscle invasive bladder cancer who underwent a transurethral resection in Spain (n = 973), the Netherlands (n = 639), or Denmark (n = 280). We evaluated recurrence-free survival and progression-free survival according to the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and the Spanish Urological Club for Oncological Treatment (CUETO) risk scores for each patient and used the concordance index (c-index) to indicate discriminative ability. RESULTS: The 3 cohorts were comparable according to age and sex, but patients from Denmark had a larger proportion of patients with the high stage and grade at diagnosis (p<0.01). At least one recurrence occurred in 839 (44%) patients and 258 (14%) patients had a progression during a median follow-up of 74 months. Patients from Denmark had the highest 10-year recurrence and progression rates (75% and 24%, respectively), whereas patients from Spain had the lowest rates (34% and 10%, respectively). The EORTC and CUETO risk scores both predicted progression better than recurrence with c-indices ranging from 0.72 to 0.82 while for recurrence, those ranged from 0.55 to 0.61. CONCLUSION: The EORTC and CUETO risk scores can reasonably predict progression, while prediction of recurrence is more difficult. New prognostic markers are needed to better predict recurrence of tumours in primary non-muscle invasive bladder cancer patients.

Parents' preferences for vaccinating daughters against human papillomavirus in the Netherlands: a discrete choice experiment.

BACKGROUND: To generate knowledge about potential improvements to human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination information and organization strategies, we assessed how aspects of HPV vaccination are associated with parents' preferences for their daughters' uptake, and which trade-offs parents are willing to make between these aspects. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted among parents with a daughter aged 10-12 years. Panel mixed logit regression models were used to determine parents' preferences for vaccination. Trade-offs were quantified between four vaccination programme aspects: degree of protection against cervical cancer, duration of protection, risk of serious side-effects, and age of vaccination. RESULTS: Total response rate was 302/983 (31%). All aspects influenced respondents' preferences for HPV vaccination (p < 0.05). Respondents preferred vaccination at age 14 years instead of at a younger age. Respondents were willing to trade-off 11% of the degree of protection to obtain life-time protection instead of 25 years. To obtain a vaccination with a risk of serious side-effects of 1/750,000 instead of 1/150,000, respondents were willing to trade-off 21%. CONCLUSIONS: Uptake may rise if the age ranges for free HPV vaccinations are broadened. Based on the trade-offs parents were willing to make, we conclude that uptake would increase if new evidence indicated outcomes are better than are currently understood, particularly for degree and duration of protection.