A screening tool to identify risk for bronchiectasis progression in children with cystic fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: The marked heterogeneity in cystic fibrosis (CF) disease complicates the selection of those most likely to benefit from existing or emergent treatments. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to predict the progression of bronchiectasis in preschool children with CF. METHODS: Using data collected up to 3 years of age, in the Australian Respiratory Early Surveillance Team for CF cohort study, clinical information, chest computed tomography (CT) scores, and biomarkers from bronchoalveolar lavage were assessed in a multivariable linear regression model as predictors for CT bronchiectasis at age 5-6. RESULTS: Follow-up at 5-6 years was available in 171 children. Bronchiectasis prevalence at 5-6 was 134/171 (78%) and median bronchiectasis score was 3 (range 0-12). The internally validated multivariate model retained eight independent predictors accounting for 37% (adjusted R2 ) of the variance in bronchiectasis score. The strongest predictors of future bronchiectasis were: pancreatic insufficiency, repeated intravenous treatment courses, recurrent lower respiratory infections in the first 3 years of life, and lower airway inflammation. Dichotomizing the resulting prediction score at a bronchiectasis score of above the median resulted in a diagnostic odds ratio of 13 (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.3-27) with positive and negative predictive values of 80% (95% CI, 72%-86%) and 77% (95% CI, 69%-83%), respectively. CONCLUSION: Early assessment of bronchiectasis risk in children with CF is feasible with reasonable precision at a group level, which can assist in high-risk patient selection for interventional trials. The unexplained variability in disease progression at individual patient levels remains high, limiting the use of this model as a clinical prediction tool.

Higher ultraviolet radiation during early life is associated with lower risk of childhood type 1 diabetes among boys.

Population-level ecological studies show type 1 diabetes incidence is inversely correlated with ambient ultraviolet radiation (UVR) levels. We conducted a nested case-control study using administrative datasets to test this association at the individual level. Cases (n = 1819) were children born in Western Australia (WA) from 1980-2014, diagnosed with type 1 diabetes at ≤ 16 years. Controls (n = 27,259) were randomly selected from all live births in WA, matched to cases by sex and date of birth. Total ambient erythemal ultraviolet radiation (UVR) doses for each trimester of pregnancy and first year of life were estimated for each individual, using daily NASA satellite data that were date- and geographically-specific. Conditional logistic regression tested the association between UVR dose and case-control status. Type 1 diabetes risk was 42% lower in boys of mothers with third-trimester UVR dose in the highest (compared to the lowest) quartile (p = 0.04). Higher UVR in the first year of life was associated with lower type 1 diabetes risk among boys (p = 0.01). UVR dose was not associated with type 1 diabetes risk in girls. Higher UVR in late pregnancy and early life appear to interact with sex-specific factors to lower type 1 diabetes risk among boys in Western Australia.

Low dose CT detected interstitial lung abnormalities in a population with low asbestos exposure.

BACKGROUND: The use of low dose CT (LDCT) chest is becoming more widespread in occupationally exposed populations. There is a knowledge gap as to heterogeneity in severity and the natural course of asbestosis after low levels of exposure. This study reports the characteristics of LDCT-detected interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA). METHODS: The Asbestos Review Program offers annual LDCT, health assessments, and pulmonary function tests to an asbestos-exposed cohort. Asbestosis was defined using the Helsinki Consensus statement and the presence of ILA defined using a protocol for occupational CT reports. At least two of three pulmonary function tests: forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1 );​ forced vital capacity (FVC); and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLco) were required for analysis of physiological decline. RESULTS: From 1513 cases, radiological ILA was present in 485 (32%). The cohort was 83.5% male with a median age of 68.3 years and a median (IQR) asbestos exposure of 0.7 (0.09-2.32) fiber/ml-year. A mixed occupation, mixed asbestos fiber cohort comprised the majority of the cohort (65.8%). Of those with ILA, 40 (8.2%) had an FVC decline of ≥10% and 30 (6.2%) had a DLco decline of ≥15% per year. Time since first exposure, increasing tobacco exposure and reported dyspnea were independently associated with the presence of ILA. CONCLUSIONS: In this population with relatively low asbestos exposure, LDCT-detected ILA that fits criteria for asbestosis is common, but physiological decline is not. This mild chronic stable phenotype of asbestos-associated ILA contrasts with the traditionally accepted views that asbestosis requires high exposures.

Autoantibodies and cancer among asbestos-exposed cohorts in Western Australia.

Asbestos exposure is associated with many adverse health conditions including malignant mesothelioma and lung cancer as well as production of autoantibodies. Autoantibodies may serve as biomarkers for asbestos exposure in patients with cancer, and autoimmune dysfunction has been linked to increased rates of various cancers. The aim of this study was to examine the hypothesis that autoantibodies are more frequent in asbestos-exposed individuals with either lung cancer or mesothelioma than those without these conditions. Asbestos-exposed individuals from Western Australia who had lung cancer (n = 24), malignant mesothelioma (n = 24), or no malignancy (n = 51) were tested for antinuclear autoantibodies (ANA) using indirect immunofluorescence and specific extractable nuclear autoantibodies (ENA) employing a multiplexed addressable laser bead immunoassay. Contrary to the hypothesis, data demonstrated that individuals without malignancy were more likely to be positive for ANA compared to those with cancer. However, autoantibodies to histone and Ro-60 were found to be associated with lung cancer. These results support a possible predictive value for specific autoantibodies in the early detection of lung cancer and/or in our understanding of the role of autoimmune processes in cancer. However, further studies are needed to identify specific target antigens for the antibodies.

Use of linked administrative and laboratory data to confirm that serum 25(OH)D levels in pregnant women can be predicted from satellite estimates of ultraviolet radiation.

BACKGROUND: Serum 25 hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels of pregnant women have been linked to various health outcomes in their offspring. Satellite-derived ultraviolet radiation (UVR) data have been used as a proxy for 25(OH)D levels, as individual-level cohort studies are time-consuming, costly and only feasible for common outcomes. METHODS: Data on 25(OH)D levels from a public laboratory database were linked to data from the Western Australian Midwives' Notification System and daily erythemal UVR dose from NASA satellites. Regression analysis was used to identify the time period prior to venesection where daily UVR dose best predicted 25(OH)D levels. A predictive model was used to validate the use of daily UVR dose as a proxy for personal sun exposure during pregnancy. RESULTS: Data from 19 173 pregnancies in women aged 18-43 years in Western Australia were included. The daily UVR dose averaged over the 90 days before venesection was the strongest UVR predictor of 25(OH)D level (a 5% increase per 1000 J m-2; equal to 3.3 nmol L-1 at the median of 66 nmol L-1). Ethnicity was the strongest predictor of 25(OH)D levels (21% lower in non-Caucasian vs Caucasian: equal to 7.2 nmol L-1 difference). Other significant predictors were gestation, age, year, parity, socio-economic status, remoteness, medical conditions and season. CONCLUSION: NASA-derived erythemal UVR dose in the 90 days prior to venesection is a significant predictor of 25(OH)D levels in pregnant women. Linked administrative data can be used to investigate associations between UVR during pregnancy and health outcomes in offspring.

Predictive value of non-specific bronchial challenge testing for respiratory symptoms and lung function in aluminium smelter workers.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the predictive value of bronchial hyper-responsiveness (BHR) for the subsequent development of respiratory symptoms, airflow limitation and decline in lung function among aluminium smelter workers. METHODS: An inception cohort study of new employees at two Australian aluminium smelters was conducted. Participants completed a modified British Medical Research Council respiratory questionnaire, spirometry and a methacholine bronchial challenge test at baseline and at annual follow-up reviews. BHR was defined as PD20 ≤4000 µg. Poisson and mixed effects models were fitted to respiratory symptoms and lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC)). RESULTS: Baseline interview and lung function testing were completed by 278 workers, who were followed for a median of 4 years. BHR at baseline, present in 82 workers, was not associated with incident wheeze risk ratio (RR)=1.07 (95% CI 0.74 to 1.55) and cough RR=0.78 (95% CI 0.45, 1.35), but there was some increased risk of chest tightness RR=1.40 (95% CI 0.99, 1.98) after adjustment for age, sex, smoking and atopy. BHR at baseline was associated with lower FEV1 and FVC, although the rate of annual decline in FEV1 or FVC was similar between those with or without BHR. The specificity of BHR was 77% for wheeze, 70% for cough and 77% for chest tightness, but the sensitivity was poor, at 33%, 24% and 39%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Methacholine challenge testing at entry to employment was not sufficiently predictive of later adverse respiratory outcomes, and notwithstanding the study limitations is unlikely to be a useful pre-employment or preplacement screening test in the aluminium smelting industry.

Infant, maternal and demographic predictors of delayed vaccination: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Receiving vaccines at or close to their due date (vaccination timeliness) is a now key measure of program performance. However, studies comprehensively examining predictors of delayed infant vaccination are lacking. We aimed to identify predictors of short and longer-term delays in diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccination by dose number and ethnicity. METHODS: Perinatal, notification, death and immunisation databases were linked for 1.3 million births in 2000-11 from two Australian states (Western Australia and New South Wales), with follow-up data until 2013. Ordinal logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted relative risks (RR) by degree of delay. Separate models were constructed for each vaccine dose and for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children. RESULTS: Each dose-specific cohort included at least 49,000 Aboriginal and 1.1 million non-Aboriginal children. Delayed receipt was more common among Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal children (eg for the first dose of DTP [DTP1] 19.4 v 8.1%). Risk factors for delayed vaccination were strongest for DTP1, and delayed receipt of DTP1 was a key driver of subsequent delays; every week DTP1 was delayed was associated with a 1.6 to 2-fold increased risk of delayed DTP2 receipt. For DTP1, ≥3 previous pregnancies (the only factor more strongly associated with longer than shorter delays; RR ≥5 compared to no previous pregnancies), and children born to mothers <20 years of age (RR ≥2 compared to ≥35 years) were at highest risk of delay. Other independent predictors were prematurity, maternal smoking during pregnancy, and being born in Western Australia (if Aboriginal) or another country in the Oceania region. CONCLUSION: The sub-populations at risk for delayed vaccination we have identified are likely generalisable to other high-income settings. Measures to improve their dose 1 timeliness, particularly for children with older siblings, are likely to have significant flow-on benefits for timeliness of later doses.

The Wittenoom legacy.

The Wittenoom crocidolite (blue asbestos) mine and mill ceased operating in 1966. The impact of this industry on asbestos-related disease in Western Australia has been immense. Use of the employment records of the Australian Blue Asbestos Company and records of the Wittenoom township residents has permitted two cohorts of people with virtually exclusive exposure to crocidolite to be assembled and studied. Follow-up of these two cohorts has been conducted through data linkage with available hospital, mortality and cancer records. The evolution of asbestos-related disease has been recorded and, with the establishment of exposure measurements, quantitative exposure-response relationships have been estimated. There has been an ongoing epidemic of mortality from lung cancer and malignant mesothelioma and, less so, from asbestosis. Wittenoom crocidolite was used extensively in asbestos-cement products in Western Australia. As a result, the state has recorded a higher malignant-mesothelioma mortality rate than in any other Australian state and in any defined general population in the world. Thus, the legacy of Wittenoom has extended beyond the mine and the town, and is still evident more than 50 years after the closure of the mine.

Pleural Plaques and the Risk of Lung Cancer in Asbestos-exposed Subjects.

Rationale: Asbestos exposure is associated with a dose-dependent risk of lung cancer. The association between lung cancer and the presence of pleural plaques remains controversial.Objectives: To define the relationship between pleural plaques and lung cancer risk.Methods: Subjects were from two cohorts: 1) crocidolite mine and mill workers and Wittenoom Township residents and 2) a mixed-asbestos-fiber, mixed-occupation group. All subjects underwent annual review since 1990, chest X-ray or low-dose computed tomography scan, and outcome linkage to national cancer and mortality registry data. Cox regression, with adjustment for age (as the underlying matching time variable), was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for lung cancer incidence by sex, tobacco smoking, asbestos exposure, presence of asbestosis, and pleural plaques.Measurements and Main Results: For all 4,240 subjects, mean age at follow up was 65.4 years, 3,486 (82.0%) were male, 1,315 (31.0%) had pleural plaques, and 1,353 (32.0%) had radiographic asbestosis. Overall, 3,042 (71.7%) were ever-smokers with mean tobacco exposure of 33 pack-years. In total, 200 lung cancers were recorded. Risk of lung cancer increased with cumulative exposure to cigarettes, asbestos, and presence of asbestosis. Pleural plaques did not confer any additional lung cancer risk in either cohort (cohort 1: HR, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-1.67; P = 0.89; cohort 2: HR, 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-1.25; P = 0.28).Conclusions: The presence of pleural plaques on radiologic imaging does not confer additional increase in the risk of lung cancer. This result is consistent across two cohorts with differing asbestos fiber exposures and intensity.

Perinatal risk factors associated with skin infection hospitalisation in Western Australian Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal children.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalisation with skin infection in Western Australian (WA) Aboriginal children is common, with the highest rates in infants and children from remote WA. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to quantify infant, maternal, and sociodemographic risk factors for skin infection hospitalisation in WA children, focussing on Aboriginal children aged <17 years. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study with linked perinatal and hospitalisation data on WA-born children (1996-2012), of whom 31 348 (6.7%) were Aboriginal. We used Cox regression to calculate adjusted hazard ratios and associated population attributable fractions (PAFs) for perinatal factors attributed to first hospitalisation with skin infection. To identify specific risk factors for early-onset infection, we further restricted the cohort to infants aged <1 year. RESULTS: Overall, 5439 (17.4%) Aboriginal and 6750 (1.5%) non-Aboriginal children were hospitalised at least once with a skin infection. Aboriginal infants aged <1 year had the highest skin infection hospitalisation rate (63.2 per 1000 child-years). The strongest risk factors in Aboriginal children aged <17 years were socio-economic disadvantage, very remote location at birth, and multi-parity (≥3 previous pregnancies) accounting for 24%, 23%, and 15% of skin infection hospitalisations, respectively. Other risk factors included maternal age <20 years, maternal smoking during pregnancy, and low birthweight. CONCLUSIONS: We have quantified the relative influence of perinatal risk factors associated with skin infection hospitalisations in WA children, providing measures indicating which factors have the potential to reduce the most hospitalisations. Our evidence not only supports existing calls for substantial government investment in addressing underlying social and environmental barriers to healthy skin in WA Aboriginal children but also identifies potential areas to target health promotion messaging at individuals/families on maternal smoking during pregnancy and skin hygiene for families.

MicroRNA Signatures in Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma Effusions.

Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is an incurable cancer of the pleura that can be difficult to diagnose. Biomarkers for an easier and/or earlier diagnosis are needed. Approximately 90% of MPM patients develop a pleural effusion (PE). PEs are ideal sources of biomarkers as the fluid would almost always require drainage for diagnostic and/or therapeutic reasons. However, differentiating MPM PE from PE caused by other diseases can be challenging. MicroRNAs are popular biomarkers given their stable expression in tissue and fluid. MicroRNAs have been analysed in PE cytology samples for the diagnosis of MPM but have not been measured in frozen/fresh PE. We hypothesise that microRNAs expressed in PE are biomarkers for MPM. TaqMan OpenArray was used to analyse over 700 microRNAs in PE cells and supernatants from 26 MPMs and 21 other PE-causing diseases. In PE cells, combining miR-143, miR-210, and miR-200c could differentiate MPM with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92. The three-microRNA signature could also discriminate MPM from a further 40 adenocarcinomas with an AUC of 0.9887. These results suggest that the expression of miR-143, miR-210, and miR-200c in PE cells might provide a signature for diagnosing MPM.

Timeliness and factors associated with rotavirus vaccine uptake among Australian Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children: A record linkage cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Rotavirus vaccines (RV), included in Australia's National Immunisation Program from mid-July 2007, are unique in strict time limits for administration. Here, we report on timeliness of RV uptake, compare cumulative RV coverage to age 12 months with DTPa, and assess factors associated with receipt of RV among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children. METHODS: Birth records for 681,456 children born in two Australian states in 2007-2012 were probabilistically linked to national immunisation records. We assessed on-time coverage (defined as receipt of vaccine dose between 4 days prior to scheduled date and the recommended upper limit) for RV and compared this to diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTPa) vaccine. Logistic regression modelling was used to assess independent determinants of receipt of RV. RESULTS: Compared to non-Aboriginal infants, on-time RV coverage was lower for all doses among Aboriginal infants. Post the upper age limit of RV dose2, DTPa dose2 coverage increased by 9-16% to ≥90%, whereas RV coverage remained around 77% (Aboriginal) and 85% (non-Aboriginal). Compared to first-born children, the adjusted odds of receiving ≥1 RV dose if born to a mother with ≥3 previous births was 0.30 (95%CI: 0.27-0.34) among Aboriginal, and 0.53 (95%CI: 0.51-0.55) among non-Aboriginal children. Prematurity (<33 weeks), low birthweight (<1500 g), maternal age <20 years, maternal smoking during pregnancy and living in a disadvantaged area were independently associated with decreased vaccine uptake. CONCLUSIONS: Aboriginal children are at greater risk of rotavirus disease than non-Aboriginal children and delayed vaccine receipt is substantially higher. Although specific programs targeting groups at risk of delayed vaccination might improve RV coverage, relaxation of upper age restrictions is most readily implementable, and its overall risk-benefit should be evaluated.

Measurement of urinary 1-aminopyrene and 1-hydroxypyrene as biomarkers of exposure to diesel particulate matter in gold miners.

Metabolites of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons measured in human samples are often used as biomarkers of exposure to diesel engine exhaust (DEE). The aim of this study was to assess the changes in urinary levels of 1-aminopyrene (1-AP) and 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP) and their relationship with Elemental Carbon (EC), as a component of diesel engine exhaust exposure, among a hard-rock gold-mining population. Urine samples were collected at the beginning and end of a 12-hour work shift from 100 underground and above ground gold miners. Miners were fitted with personal exposure monitoring equipment to quantify exposure to DEE, measured as Elemental Carbon (EC), across their 12-hour work shift. General linear regression assessed associations of the post-shift urinary 1-AP and 1-OHP concentrations with EC, controlling for age, gender, the pre-shift biomarker level, Body Mass Index (BMI), days on current shift, time in mining, smoking status and second-hand smoke exposure. The concentrations of 1-AP and 1-OHP increased significantly across a 12-hour mining work shift. Moreover, consistent with the sensitivity analysis, the concentration of 1-AP was significantly associated with EC after adjustments. Urinary 1-OHP, but not 1-AP was significantly associated with current smoking. Urinary 1-AP may be a more robust and specific biomarker of DEE than 1-OHP.

Validation of an Asbestos Job-Exposure Matrix (AsbJEM) in Australia: Exposure-Response Relationships for Malignant Mesothelioma.

OBJECTIVES: An asbestos job-exposure matrix (AsbJEM) has been developed to systematically and cost-effectively evaluate occupational exposures in population-based studies. The primary aim of this study was to examine the accuracy of the AsbJEM in determining exposure-response relationships between asbestos exposure estimates and malignant mesothelioma (MM) incidence (indirect validation). The secondary aim was to investigate whether the assumptions used in the development of the original AsbJEM provided accurate asbestos exposure estimates. METHODS: The study population consisted of participants in an annual health surveillance program, who had at least 3-month occupational asbestos exposure. Calculated asbestos exposure indices included cumulative asbestos exposure and the average exposure intensity, estimated using the AsbJEM and duration of employment. Asbestos and MM exposure-response relationships were compared between the original AsbJEM and its variations based on manipulations of the intensity, duration and frequency of exposure. Twenty-four exposure estimates were calculated for both cumulative asbestos exposure and the average exposure intensity using three exposure intensities (50th, 75th and 90th percentile of the range of mode exposure), four peak durations (15, 30, 60 and 120 min) and two patterns of peak frequency (original and doubled). Cox proportional hazards models were used to describe the associations between MM incidence and each of the cumulative and average intensity estimates. RESULTS: Data were collected from 1602 male participants. Of these, 40 developed MM during the study period. There were significant associations between MM incidence and both cumulative and average exposure intensity for all estimates. The strongest association, based on the regression-coefficient from the models, was found for the 50th percentile of mode exposure, 15-min peak duration and the doubled frequency of peak exposure. Using these assumptions, the hazard ratios for mesothelioma were 1 (reference), 1.91, 3.24 and 5.37 for the quartiles of cumulative asbestos exposure and 1 (reference), 1.84, 2.31 and 4.40 for the quartiles of the average exposure intensity, respectively. CONCLUSION: The well-known positive exposure-response relationship between MM incidence and both estimated cumulative asbestos exposure and average exposure intensity was confirmed. The strongest relationship was found when the frequency of peak exposure in the AsbJEM was doubled from the originally published estimates.

Changing Prevalence of Lower Airway Infections in Young Children with Cystic Fibrosis.

Rationale: Historical studies suggest that airway infection in cystic fibrosis initiates with Staphylococcus aureus and Haemophilus influenzae, with later emergence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Aspergillus species are regarded as relatively infrequent, late-occurring infections.Objectives: To assess the prevalence and change in prevalence of early lower airway infections in a modern cohort of children with cystic fibrosis.Methods: All infants diagnosed with cystic fibrosis after newborn screening participating in the Australian Respiratory Early Surveillance Team for Cystic Fibrosis (AREST CF) cohort study between 2000 and 2018 were included. Participants prospectively underwent BAL at 3-6 months, 1 year, and annually up to 6 years of age. Lower airway infection prevalence was described. Changes in prevalence patterns were assessed longitudinally using generalized estimating equations controlling for age and repeated visits.Measurements and Main Results: A total of 380 infants underwent 1,759 BALs. The overall prevalence and median age of first acquisition of the most common infections were as follows: S. aureus, 11%, 2.5 years; P. aeruginosa, 8%, 2.4 years; Aspergillus species, 11%, 3.2 years; and H. influenzae, 9%, 3.1 years. During the study, a significant decrease in prevalence of P. aeruginosa (P < 0.001) and S. aureus (P < 0.001) was observed with a significant change toward more aggressive treatment. Prevalence of Aspergillus infections did not significantly change (P = 0.669).Conclusions:Aspergillus species and P. aeruginosa are commonly present in the lower airways from infancy. The decrease in prevalence of P. aeruginosa and S. aureus since 2000, coinciding with a more aggressive therapeutic approach, has resulted in Aspergillus becoming the most commonly isolated pathogen in young children. Further research is warranted to understand the implication of these findings.

Diagnosis of asbestos-related lung diseases.

INTRODUCTION: The diagnosis of lung disease in asbestos-exposed individuals is a process that not only requires a detailed occupational and tobacco smoking history, but the correlation with physical signs, appropriate imaging, detailed lung function assessment and histology/cytology when required. Worldwide, the total quantity of asbestos mined is static, having decreased dramatically in developed countries but increased in countries where there is no restriction on mining: for example, Russia, China, Brazil, and Kazakhstan. The predominant diagnostic challenge in most cases of possible asbestos-related disease is the significant interval between exposure and development of the disease. Also challenging is the estimation of an individual's risk of disease, not least because asbestos-induced malignancy can be rapidly fatal, and, in the case of lung cancer, early detection can lead to treatment with curative intent. Areas covered: Discussion of quantitative asbestos exposure estimation and risk assessment, selection of the most appropriate imaging modality and frequency of imaging. Expert commentary: Consideration of the future for asbestos-related lung disease includes screening those at highest risk particularly in relation to ongoing mining operations and the management of in-situ asbestos. In the future, screening programs designed with estimation of risk of malignancy, based on quantitative estimates of asbestos exposure, and smoking history are indicated.

Prediction modelling using routine clinical parameters to stratify survival in Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma patients undergoing cytoreductive surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is an uncommon cancer with a poor prognosis and heterogeneous survival. Surgery for MPM is offered in some specialist centers to highly selected patients. A previously described classification and regression tree (CART) model stratified survival in unselected MPM patients using routinely collected clinical data. This study aimed to examine the performance of this CART model on a highly selected surgical population. METHODS: Data were collected from subjects undergoing cytoreductive surgery for MPM from specialist centers in Hyõgo, Japan, and Sydney, Australia, between 1991 and 2016. The CART model was applied using the combination of clinical variables to stratify subjects into risk groups (1 through 4); survival characteristics were then compared. RESULTS: Two hundred eighty-nine cases were included (205 from Australia, 84 from Japan). Overall median survival was 34.6 (interquartile range: 17.5-56.1) months; median age was 63.0 (interquartile range: 57.0-67.8) years, and 83.0% (n = 240) were male. There were no clinically meaningful differences between the two cohorts. Survival across the four risk groups was significantly different (p < 0.0001); the model stratified survival well with a Harrell's concordance statistic of 0.62 (95% confidence interval: 0.57-0.66) at 36 months. The group with the longest survival (median, 82.5 months) had: no weight loss, hemoglobin > 153 g/L and serum albumin > 43 g/L at time of referral to the surgical center. CONCLUSIONS: Using routinely available clinical variables, the CART model was able to stratify surgical patients into risk groups with statistically different survival characteristics with fair to good performance. Presence of weight loss, anemia, and low albumin should confer caution when considering surgical therapy for MPM.

Risk of Developmental Disorders in Children of Immigrant Mothers: A Population-Based Data Linkage Evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prevalence and risks of developmental disability (autism spectrum disorder, intellectual disability, and cerebral palsy) in Western Australian children of different groups of foreign-born women. STUDY DESIGN: Western Australian population-based linked data of 764 749 singleton live births from 1980 to 2010 were used to compare disability outcomes among children of foreign-born, Australian-born non-Indigenous, and Indigenous women. The risk of disability was assessed using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, the prevalence of any disability was lowest for the children of foreign-born mothers. From 1980 to 1996 but not from 1997 to 2010, children born to mothers from foreign-born low-income countries had an increased relative risk of autism spectrum disorder with intellectual disability, and children born to foreign-born mothers from upper-middle-income countries had an increased risk of cerebral palsy with intellectual disability. After adjusting for smoking, the relative risks of intellectual disability and cerebral palsy with intellectual disability were markedly decreased in children of Australian-born Indigenous mothers. CONCLUSIONS: Although we did not find among children born to foreign-born women an increased prevalence across all the measured developmental outcomes, we did observe an increased risk of autism spectrum disorder with intellectual disability and cerebral palsy with intellectual disability for mothers of some foreign-born groups. Our findings related to smoking in the Indigenous population underscore its possible role on the causal pathway to intellectual disability. Maternal migration is considered a factor on the causal pathway to intellectual disability. Maternal migration may be either a risk or a protective factor on the causal pathway to developmental disabilities and the direct role of migration is inconclusive in our study.