Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fibrosis 5 (MAF-5) Score Predicts Liver Fibrosis Risk and Outcome in the General Population With Metabolic Dysfunction.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is an unmet need for noninvasive tests to improve case-finding and aid primary care professionals in referring patients at high risk of liver disease. METHODS: A metabolic dysfunction-associated fibrosis (MAF-5) score was developed and externally validated in a total of 21,797 individuals with metabolic dysfunction in population-based (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III, and Rotterdam Study) and hospital-based (from Antwerp and Bogota) cohorts. Fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness ≥8.0 kPa. Diagnostic accuracy was compared with FIB-4, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), LiverRisk score and steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE). MAF-5 was externally validated with liver stiffness measurement ≥8.0 kPa, with shear-wave elastography ≥7.5 kPa, and biopsy-proven steatotic liver disease according to Metavir and Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network scores, and was tested for prognostic performance (all-cause mortality). RESULTS: The MAF-5 score comprised waist circumference, body mass index (calculated as kg / m2), diabetes, aspartate aminotransferase, and platelets. With this score, 60.9% was predicted at low, 14.1% at intermediate, and 24.9% at high risk of fibrosis. The observed prevalence was 3.3%, 7.9%, and 28.1%, respectively. The area under the receiver operator curve of MAF-5 (0.81) was significantly higher than FIB-4 (0.61), and outperformed the FIB-4 among young people (negative predictive value [NPV], 99%; area under the curve [AUC], 0.86 vs NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.51) and older adults (NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.75 vs NPV, 88%; AUC, 0.55). MAF-5 showed excellent performance to detect liver stiffness measurement ≥12 kPa (AUC, 0.86 training; AUC, 0.85 validation) and good performance in detecting liver stiffness and biopsy-proven liver fibrosis among the external validation cohorts. MAF-5 score >1 was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in (un)adjusted models (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.47-1.73). CONCLUSIONS: The MAF-5 score is a validated, age-independent, inexpensive referral tool to identify individuals at high risk of liver fibrosis and all-cause mortality in primary care populations, using simple variables.

Development, validation, and prognostic evaluation of a risk score for long-term liver-related outcomes in the general population: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early intervention. We aimed to develop a novel score to identify individuals at risk for future liver-related outcomes. METHODS: We derived the LiverRisk score from an international prospective cohort of individuals from six countries without known liver disease from the general population, who underwent liver fibrosis assessment by transient elastography. The score included age, sex, and six standard laboratory variables. We created four groups: minimal risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk according to selected cutoff values of the LiverRisk score (6, 10, and 15). The model's discriminatory accuracy and calibration were externally validated in two prospective cohorts from the general population. Moreover, we ascertained the prognostic value of the score in the prediction of liver-related outcomes in participants without known liver disease with median follow-up of 12 years (UK Biobank cohort). FINDINGS: We included 14 726 participants: 6357 (43·2%) in the derivation cohort, 4370 (29·7%) in the first external validation cohort, and 3999 (27·2%) in the second external validation cohort. The score accurately predicted liver stiffness in the development and external validation cohorts, and was superior to conventional serum biomarkers of fibrosis, as measured by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0·83 [95% CI [0·78-0·89]) versus the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; 0·68 [0·61-0·75] at 10 kPa). The score was effective in identifying individuals at risk of liver-related mortality, liver-related hospitalisation, and liver cancer, thereby allowing stratification to different risk groups for liver-related outcomes. The hazard ratio for liver-related mortality in the high-risk group was 471 (95% CI 347-641) compared with the minimal risk group, and the overall AUC of the score in predicting 10-year liver-related mortality was 0·90 (0·88-0·91) versus 0.84 (0·82-0·86) for FIB-4. INTERPRETATION: The LiverRisk score, based on simple parameters, predicted liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. The score might allow for stratification of individuals according to liver risk and thus guide preventive care. FUNDING: European Commission under the H20/20 programme; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria de Salud; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness; the European Regional Development Fund; and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Association Between the Presence of Metabolic Comorbidities and Liver-Related Events in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are at increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and (liver-related) mortality. In addition to hepatitis B-related factors, metabolic comorbidities may contribute to the progression of fibrosis. Therefore, we studied the association between metabolic comorbidities and adverse clinical outcomes in patients with CHB. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of CHB patients attending the Erasmus MC University Medical Center (Rotterdam, The Netherlands) and CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy at the Toronto General Hospital (Toronto, Canada). The presence of metabolic comorbidities (ie, overweight, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and dyslipidemia) was assessed based on chart review. The primary end point was liver-related events, defined as the first composite of hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or liver-related mortality. RESULTS: We analyzed 1850 patients, of whom 926 (50.1%) were overweight, 161 (8.7%) had hypertension, 116 (6.3%) had dyslipidemia, and 82 (4.4%) had diabetes. During a median follow-up period of 7.3 years (interquartile range, 2.9-11.5 y), a total of 111 first events were recorded. Hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], 8.3; 95% CI, 5.5-12.7), diabetes (HR, 5.4; 95% CI, 3.2-9.1), dyslipidemia (HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.6-4.8), and overweight (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.5) were associated with an increased risk for liver-related events. The presence of multiple comorbidities further increased the risk. Findings were consistent for patients with and without cirrhosis, among noncirrhotic hepatitis B e antigen-negative patients with hepatitis B virus DNA less than 2000 IU/mL and in multivariable analysis adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, hepatitis B e antigen status, hepatitis B virus DNA, use of antiviral therapy, and the presence of cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic comorbidities in CHB patients are associated with an increased risk for liver-related events, with the highest risk observed in patients with multiple comorbidities. Findings were consistent in various clinically relevant subgroups, underscoring the need for thorough metabolic assessment in patients with CHB.

Dissecting the multifaceted impact of statin use on fatty liver disease: a multidimensional study.

BACKGROUND: Statin use could benefit patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), but the evidence is segmented and inconclusive. This multidimensional study comprehensively investigated the potential benefits and mechanism-of-action of statins in NAFLD. METHODS: A cross-sectional investigation was performed within the Rotterdam Study (general population; n = 4.576) and the PERSONS cohort (biopsy-proven NAFLD patients; n = 569). Exclusion criteria were secondary causes for steatosis and insufficient data on alcohol, dyslipidemia or statin use. Associations of statin use with NAFLD (among entire general population), fibrosis and NASH (among NAFLD individuals and patients) were quantified. These results were pooled with available literature in meta-analysis. Last, we assessed statins' anti-lipid and anti-inflammatory effects in 3D cultured human liver organoids and THP-1 macrophages, respectively. FINDINGS: Statin use was inversely associated with NAFLD in the Rotterdam study compared to participants with untreated dyslipidemia. In the PERSONS cohort, statin use was inversely associated with NASH, but not with fibrosis. The meta-analysis included 7 studies and indicated a not significant inverse association for statin use with NAFLD (pooled-Odds Ratio: 0.69, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.46-1.01) and significant inverse associations with NASH (pooled-OR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.44-0.79) and fibrosis (pooled-OR: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.33-0.70). In vitro, statins significantly reduced lipid droplet accumulation in human liver organoids and downregulated expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines in macrophages. INTERPRETATION: Pooled results demonstrated that statin use was associated with a lower prevalence of NASH and fibrosis and might prevent NAFLD. This may be partially attributed to the anti-lipid and anti-inflammatory characteristics of statins. Given their under-prescription, adequate prescription of statins may limit the disease burden of NAFLD. FUNDING: ZonMw, KWF, NWO, SLO, DGXII, RIDE, National and regional government, Erasmus MC and Erasmus University.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease and excessive alcohol consumption are both independent risk factors for mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: MAFLD often cooccurs with excessive alcohol consumption, while its prognostic value in this group remains unclear. We aimed to study the mortality risk of MAFLD in relation to excessive alcohol consumption and its potential interactions. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We analyzed persons 25-74 years old enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III cohort with available steatosis and alcohol data. Participants with viral hepatitis, body mass index < 18.5, and missing data on age or follow-up were excluded, leaving 12,656 participants for analysis with a median follow-up of 22.9 [20.9-24.8] years. MAFLD was defined as steatosis on ultrasound in the presence of metabolic dysfunction. Daily alcohol intake of ≥10 g in females and ≥20 g in males was considered excessive alcohol consumption. We quantified mortality risk with multivariate Cox regression for MAFLD and excessive alcohol consumption. Models were adjusted for age, age squared, sex, race, marital status, education, and smoking. MAFLD was present in 31% and excessive alcohol consumption in 13% and were both independently and simultaneously associated with increased mortality risk in fully adjusted models (adjusted HR [aHR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.13-1.30 and aHR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.04-1.26, respectively). Similarly, MAFLD was associated with increased mortality risk in participants with and without excessive alcohol consumption. Participants with both MAFLD and excessive alcohol consumption (4.0%) expressed the highest mortality risk (aHR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.28-1.71). Results were consistent using the initial 10 years of follow-up, a stringent definition of excessive alcohol, and propensity score weighting. CONCLUSIONS: MAFLD increases mortality risk independent of excessive alcohol consumption. This underscores the importance of MAFLD, even in patients with excessive alcohol consumption.

Fatty liver disease is not associated with increased mortality in the elderly: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fatty liver disease (FLD) has been associated with excess mortality. Screening for hepatic steatosis (HS) in patients with metabolic dysfunction is therefore recommended by several guidelines, despite a paucity of evidence on the clinical relevance of FLD in this specific subgroup. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We studied participants of an ongoing prospective cohort (the Rotterdam Study). Persons ≥65 years old were enrolled from 2009 to 2014 and were followed through 2018. Steatosis was assessed by ultrasound and liver stiffness (LS) by transient elastography. The association between HS and LS with mortality was assessed using Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, education, smoking, individual components of metabolic syndrome (MetS), heart failure, coronary heart disease, and stroke. We included 4093 elderly participants (74.4 ± 6.6 years old; 42.7% male); 36.8% had ultrasound-based steatosis. During the median follow-up of 6.9 years, 793 participants died (29.6 per 1000 person-years). In the overall population, steatosis was not associated with mortality in multivariable analysis (adjusted HR [aHR], 0.87; 95% CI, 0.73-1.03). Findings were consistent across a range of clinically relevant subgroups, including age categories, sex, MetS, elevated liver enzymes, and cardiac disease. Sensitivity analyses showed similar results for mortality beyond 5 years of follow-up and cancer-related and cerebro-cardiovascular mortality. Furthermore, among participants with steatosis, higher LS (aHR, 1.04 per kPa; 95% CI, 0.95-1.14) was not associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Presence of FLD was not associated with mortality in this cohort nor in a range of subgroups. This indicates that screening for FLD and/or fibrosis is unlikely to improve outcomes among the elderly population.

Prevalence of lung tumors in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and vice versa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: Recent reports suggest an increased prevalence of lung second primary tumors (LSPTs) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients and vice versa. However, the exact prevalence of SPTs remains unclear and screening for these SPTs is currently not routinely performed in western countries. We aimed to report on the prevalence of LSPTs in patients with ESCC and esophageal second primary tumors (ESPTs) in patients with lung cancer (LC). METHODS: Databases were searched until 25 March 2021 for studies reporting the prevalence of LSPTs in ESCC or vice versa. Pooled prevalences with 95% confidence intervals (CI) of SPTs were calculated with inverse variance, random-effects models and Clopper-Pearson. RESULTS: Nineteen studies in ESCC patients and 20 studies in LC patients were included. The pooled prevalence of LSPTs in patients with ESCC was 1.8% (95% CI 1.4-2.3%). For ESPTs in LC patients, the pooled prevalence was 0.2% (95% CI 0.1-0.4%). The prevalence of LSPTs in ESCC patients was significantly higher in patients treated curatively compared to studies also including palliative patients (median 2.5% versus 1.3%). This difference was consistent for the ESPT prevalence in LC patients (treated curatively median 1.3% versus 0.1% for all treatments). Over 50% of the detected SPTs were squamous cell carcinomas and were diagnosed metachronously. CONCLUSION: Patients with ESCC and LC have an increased risk of developing SPTs in the lungs and esophagus. However, the relatively low SPT prevalence rates do not justify screening in these patients. Further research should focus on risk stratification to identify subgroups of patients at highest risk of SPT development.

Assessment of Adherence to Clinical Guidelines in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

Background and aims: Adherence to guidelines is associated with improved long-term outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to study the degree of adherence and determinants of non-adherence to management guidelines in a low endemic country. Methods: We reviewed the medical records of all CHB patients who visited our outpatient clinic in 2020. Adherence to guidelines was assessed based on predefined criteria based on the EASL guidance, and included the initiation of antiviral therapy when indicated, the optimal choice of antiviral therapy based on comorbidities, an assessment of HAV/HCV/HDV/HIV serostatus, renal function monitoring and enrolment in a HCC surveillance program if indicated. The adherence rates were compared across types of outpatient clinic (dedicated viral hepatitis clinic versus general hepatology clinic). Results: We enrolled 482 patients. Among the 276 patients with an indication for antiviral therapy, 268 (97.1%) received treatment. Among the patients with renal and/or bone disease, 26/29 (89.7%) received the optimal choice of antiviral agent. The assessment of HAV/HCV/HDV/HIV serostatus was performed in 86.1/91.7/94.4/78.4%. Among the 91 patients treated with tenofovir disoproxil, 57 (62.6%) underwent monitoring of renal function. Of the 241 patients with an indication for HCC surveillance, 212 (88.3%) were enrolled in a surveillance program. Clinics dedicated to viral hepatitis had superior adherence rates compared to general hepatology clinics (complete adherence rates 63.6% versus 37.2%, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Follow-up at a dedicated viral hepatitis clinic was associated with superior adherence to management guidelines.

Is Fasting Good When One Is at Risk of Liver Cancer?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths worldwide, is a multistep process that usually develops in the background of cirrhosis, but also in a non-cirrhotic state in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or viral hepatis. Emerging evidence suggests that intermittent fasting can reduce the risk of cancer development and could improve response and tolerance to treatment through the metabolic and hormonal adaptations induced by the low energy availability that finally impairs cancer cells' adaptability, survival and growth. The current review will outline the beneficial effects of fasting in NAFLD/NASH patients and the possible mechanisms that can prevent HCC development, including circadian clock re-synchronization, with a special focus on the possibility of applying this dietary intervention to cirrhotic patients.

LiverScreen project: study protocol for screening for liver fibrosis in the general population in European countries.

BACKGROUND: The development of liver cirrhosis is usually an asymptomatic process until late stages when complications occur. The potential reversibility of the disease is dependent on early diagnosis of liver fibrosis and timely targeted treatment. Recently, the use of non-invasive tools has been suggested for screening of liver fibrosis, especially in subjects with risk factors for chronic liver disease. Nevertheless, large population-based studies with cost-effectiveness analyses are still lacking to support the widespread use of such tools. The aim of this study is to investigate whether non-invasive liver stiffness measurement in the general population is useful to identify subjects with asymptomatic, advanced chronic liver disease. METHODS: This study aims to include 30,000 subjects from eight European countries. Subjects from the general population aged ≥ 40 years without known liver disease will be invited to participate in the study either through phone calls/letters or through their primary care center. In the first study visit, subjects will undergo bloodwork as well as hepatic fat quantification and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography. If LSM is ≥ 8 kPa and/or if ALT levels are ≥1.5 x upper limit of normal, subjects will be referred to hospital for further evaluation and consideration of liver biopsy. The primary outcome is the percentage of subjects with LSM ≥ 8kPa. In addition, a health economic evaluation will be performed to assess the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of such an intervention. The project is funded by the European Commission H2020 program. DISCUSSION: This study comes at an especially important time, as the burden of chronic liver diseases is expected to increase in the coming years. There is consequently an urgent need to change our current approach, from diagnosing the disease late when the impact of interventions may be limited to diagnosing the disease earlier, when the patient is asymptomatic and free of complications, and the disease potentially reversible. Ultimately, the LiverScreen study will serve as a basis from which diagnostic pathways can be developed and adapted to the specific socio-economic and healthcare conditions in each country. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered on Clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT03789825 ).

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease increases risk of adverse outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A recent consensus document has defined metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) as hepatic steatosis together with overweight, diabetes, and/or a combination of other metabolic risk factors. The clinical relevance of this novel diagnosis is unknown among patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We studied the association between MAFLD (with or without steatohepatitis) and adverse clinical outcomes in patients with CHB. METHODS: We performed a retrospective long-term follow-up cohort study at 2 tertiary hospitals in patients with CHB who underwent liver biopsy. Biopsies were reassessed for steatosis, degree of fibrosis, and presence of steatohepatitis. Associations with event-free hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-free and transplant-free survival were explored. RESULTS: In our cohort, 1076 patients were included, median follow-up was 9.8 years (25th-75th percentile: 6.6-14.0), and 107 events occurred in 78 patients, comprising death (n = 43), HCC (n = 36), liver decompensation (n = 21), and/or liver transplantation (n = 7). MAFLD was present in 296 (27.5%) patients and was associated with reduced event-free (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.00, 95% CI 1.26-3.19), HCC-free (aHR 1.93, 95% CI 1.17-3.21), and transplant-free survival (aHR 1.80, 95% CI 0.98-3.29) in multivariable analysis. Among patients with MAFLD, the presence of steatohepatitis (p = 0.95, log-rank test) was not associated with adverse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of MAFLD in patients with CHB was associated with an increased risk for liver-related clinical events and death. Among patients with MAFLD, steatohepatitis did not increase the risk of adverse outcomes. Our findings highlight the importance of metabolic dysfunction in patients with CHB. LAY SUMMARY: Recently, metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) has been defined as fatty liver disease with signs of metabolic dysfunction. Among patients with chronic hepatitis B, MAFLD was associated with liver-related events and death. Metabolic health assessment should be encouraged among patients with chronic hepatitis B, especially in those with fatty liver disease.