Using real-world data to dynamically predict flares during tapering of biological DMARDs in rheumatoid arthritis: development, validation, and potential impact of prediction-aided decisions.

BACKGROUND: Biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) are effective in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. However, as bDMARDs may also lead to adverse events and are expensive, tapering them is of great clinical interest. Tapering according to disease activity-guided dose optimization (DGDO) does not seem to affect long term remission rates, but flares are frequent during this process. Our objective was to develop a model for the prediction of flares during bDMARD tapering using data from routine care and to evaluate its potential clinical impact. METHODS: We used a joint latent class model to repeatedly predict the probability of a flare occurring within the next 3 months. The model was developed using longitudinal data on disease activity (DAS28) and other routine care data from two clinics. Predictive accuracy was assessed in cross-validation and external validation was performed with data from the DRESS (Dose REduction Strategy of Subcutaneous tumor necrosis factor inhibitors) trial. Additionally, we simulated the reduction in number of flares and bDMARD dose when implementing the model as a decision aid during bDMARD tapering in the DRESS trial. RESULTS: Data from 279 bDMARD courses were used for model development. The final model included two latent DAS28-trajectories, bDMARD type and dose, disease duration, and seropositivity. The area under the curve of the final model was 0.76 (0.69-0.83) in cross-validation and 0.68 (0.62-0.73) in external validation. In simulation of prediction-aided decisions, the mean number of flares over 18 months decreased from 1.21 (0.99-1.43) to 0.75 (0.54-0.96). The reduction in he bDMARD dose was mostly maintained, increasing from 54 to 64% of full dose. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a dynamic flare prediction model, exclusively based on data typically available in routine care. Our results show that using this model to aid decisions during bDMARD tapering may significantly reduce the number of flares while maintaining most of the bDMARD dose reduction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The clinical impact of the prediction model is currently under investigation in the PATIO randomized controlled trial (Dutch Trial Register number NL9798).

Targeted Proteomics Reveals Inflammatory Pathways that Classify Immune Dysregulation in Common Variable Immunodeficiency.

Patients with common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) can develop immune dysregulation complications such as autoimmunity, lymphoproliferation, enteritis, and malignancy, which cause significant morbidity and mortality. We aimed to (i) assess the potential of serum proteomics in stratifying patients with immune dysregulation using two independent cohorts and (ii) identify cytokine and chemokine signaling pathways that underlie immune dysregulation in CVID. A panel of 180 markers was measured in two multicenter CVID cohorts using Olink Protein Extension Assay technology. A classification algorithm was trained to distinguish CVID with immune dysregulation (CVIDid, n = 14) from CVID with infections only (CVIDio, n = 16) in the training cohort, and validated on a second testing cohort (CVIDid n = 23, CVIDio n = 24). Differential expression in both cohorts was used to determine relevant signaling pathways. An elastic net classifier using MILR1, LILRB4, IL10, IL12RB1, and CD83 could discriminate between CVIDid and CVIDio patients with a sensitivity of 0.83, specificity of 0.75, and area under the curve of 0.73 in an independent testing cohort. Activated pathways (fold change > 1.5, FDR-adjusted p < 0.05) in CVIDid included Th1 and Th17-associated signaling, as well as IL10 and other immune regulatory markers (LAG3, TNFRSF9, CD83). Targeted serum proteomics provided an accurate and reproducible tool to discriminate between patients with CVIDid and CVIDio. Cytokine profiles provided insight into activation of Th1 and Th17 pathways and indicate a possible role for chronic inflammation and exhaustion in immune dysregulation. These findings serve as a first step towards the development of biomarkers for immune dysregulation in CVID.

Five-Year Follow-up of Knee Joint Distraction: Clinical Benefit and Cartilaginous Tissue Repair in an Open Uncontrolled Prospective Study.

Objective In end-stage knee osteoarthritis, total knee arthroplasty (TKA) may finally become inevitable. At a relatively young age, this comes with the risk of future revision surgery. Therefore, in these cases, joint preserving surgery such as knee joint distraction (KJD) is preferred. Here we present 5-year follow-up data of KJD. Design Patients ( n = 20; age <60 years) with conservative therapy resistant tibiofemoral osteoarthritis considered for TKA were treated. Clinical evaluation was performed by questionnaires. Change in cartilage thickness was quantified on radiographs and magnetic resonance images (MRI). The 5-year changes after KJD were evaluated and compared with the natural progression of osteoarthritis using Osteoarthritis Initiative data. Results Five-years posttreatment, patients still reported clinical improvement from baseline: ΔWOMAC (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index) +21.1 points (95% CI +8.9 to +33.3; P = 0.002), ΔVAS (visual analogue scale score) pain -27.6 mm (95%CI -13.3 to -42.0; P < 0.001), and minimum radiographic joint space width (JSW) of the most affected compartment (MAC) remained increased as well: Δ +0.43 mm (95% CI +0.02 to +0.84; P = 0.040). Improvement of mean JSW (x-ray) and mean cartilage thickness (MRI) of the MAC, were not statistically different from baseline anymore (Δ +0.26 mm; P = 0.370, and Δ +0.23 mm; P = 0.177). Multivariable linear regression analysis indicated that KJD treatment was associated with significantly less progression in mean and min JSW (x-ray) and mean cartilage thickness (MRI) compared with natural progression (all Ps <0.001). Conclusions KJD treatment results in prolonged clinical benefit, potentially explained by an initial boost of cartilaginous tissue repair that provides a long-term tissue structure benefit as compared to natural progression. Level of evidence, II.

The clinical relevance of a repeat biopsy in lupus nephritis flares.

BACKGROUND: The clinical utility of performing repeat biopsies during lupus nephritis flares is questionable and data pointing towards frequent class switches are based on the old WHO classification. This retrospective study investigates the hypothesis that clinically relevant switches from proliferative to non-proliferative lesions and vice versa as determined by the new ISN/RPS classification are a rare event and that repeat biopsies are unnecessary in many cases. METHODS: Thirty-five patients with lupus nephritis and one or more repeat renal biopsies were included. Eighty-four biopsies were blindly reassessed according to the ISN/RPS classification. RESULTS: Twenty-five patients had one repeat biopsy, 6 patients had two and 4 patients had three repeat biopsies. Forty-nine comparisons between reference and repeat biopsies could be made. In 25 cases (54.3%), there was no shift in ISN/RPS class on repeat biopsies. In 41 instances, paired biopsies showed proliferative lesions both on reference and repeat biopsies, whereas five of six cases with non-proliferative lesions on a reference biopsy switched to proliferative lesions on a repeat biopsy. Clinically significant class switches during lupus nephritis flares were more frequent in patients with non-proliferative lesions in their reference biopsy (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The results show that patients with proliferative lesions in the original biopsy rarely switch to a pure non-proliferative nephritis during a flare. Therefore, a repeat biopsy during a lupus nephritis flare is frequently not necessary if proliferative lesions were found in the reference biopsy. However, in the case of a non-proliferative lesion in the reference biopsy, class switches are frequently found and repeat biopsies are advisable.