The causal effects of education on adult health, mortality and income: evidence from Mendelian randomization and the raising of the school leaving age.

BACKGROUND: On average, educated people are healthier, wealthier and have higher life expectancy than those with less education. Numerous studies have attempted to determine whether education causes differences in later health outcomes or whether another factor ultimately causes differences in education and subsequent outcomes. Previous studies have used a range of natural experiments to provide causal evidence. Here we compare two natural experiments: a policy reform, raising the school leaving age in the UK in 1972; and Mendelian randomization. METHODS: We used data from 334 974 participants of the UK Biobank, sampled between 2006 and 2010. We estimated the effect of an additional year of education on 25 outcomes, including mortality, measures of morbidity and health, ageing and income, using multivariable adjustment, the policy reform and Mendelian randomization. We used a range of sensitivity analyses and specification tests to assess the plausibility of each method's assumptions. RESULTS: The three different estimates of the effects of educational attainment were largely consistent in direction for diabetes, stroke and heart attack, mortality, smoking, income, grip strength, height, body mass index (BMI), intelligence, alcohol consumption and sedentary behaviour. However, there was evidence that education reduced rates of moderate exercise and increased alcohol consumption. Our sensitivity analyses suggest that confounding by genotypic or phenotypic confounders or specific forms of pleiotropy are unlikely to explain our results. CONCLUSIONS: Previous studies have suggested that the differences in outcomes associated with education may be due to confounding. However, the two independent sources of exogenous variation we exploit largely imply consistent causal effects of education on outcomes later in life.

Food abundance in men before puberty predicts a range of cancers in grandsons.

Nutritional conditions early in human life may influence phenotypic characteristics in later generations. A male-line transgenerational pathway, triggered by the early environment, has been postulated with support from animal and a small number of human studies. Here we analyse individuals born in Uppsala Sweden 1915-29 with linked data from their children and parents, which enables us to explore the hypothesis that pre-pubertal food abundance may trigger a transgenerational effect on cancer events. We used cancer registry and cause-of-death data to analyse 3422 cancer events in grandchildren (G2) by grandparental (G0) food access. We show that variation in harvests and food access in G0 predicts cancer occurrence in G2 in a specific way: abundance among paternal grandfathers, but not any other grandparent, predicts cancer occurrence in grandsons but not in granddaughters. This male-line response is observed for several groups of cancers, suggesting a general susceptibility, possibly acquired in early embryonic development. We observed no transgenerational influence in the middle generation.

Grandchild's IQ is associated with grandparental environments prior to the birth of the parents.

Background. Despite convincing animal experiments demonstrating the potential for environmental exposures in one generation to have demonstrable effects generations later, there have been few relevant human studies. Those that have been undertaken have demonstrated associations, for example, between exposures such as nutrition and cigarette smoking in the grandparental generation and outcomes in grandchildren. We hypothesised that such transgenerational associations might be associated with the IQ of the grandchild, and that it would be likely that there would be differences in results between the sexes of the grandparents, parents, and children. Method. We used three-generational data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC).  We incorporated environmental factors concerning grandparents (F0) and focussed on three exposures that we hypothesised may have independent transgenerational associations with the IQ of the grandchildren (F2): (i) UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at grandparental birth year; (ii) whether grandfather smoked; and (iii) whether the grandmother smoked in the relevant pregnancy. Potential confounders were ages of grandparents when the relevant parent was born, ethnic background, education level and social class of each grandparent. Results. After adjustment, all three target exposures had specific associations with measures of IQ in the grandchild. Paternal grandfather smoking was associated with reduced total IQ at 15 years; maternal grandfather smoking with reduced performance IQ at 8 years and reduced total IQ at 15.  Paternal grandmother smoking in pregnancy was associated with reduced performance IQ at 8, especially in grandsons. GDP at grandparents' birth produced independent associations of reduced IQ with higher GDP; this was particularly true of paternal grandmothers. Conclusions. These results are complex and need to be tested in other datasets. They highlight the need to consider possible transgenerational associations in studying developmental variation in populations.

Paternal grandfather's access to food predicts all-cause and cancer mortality in grandsons.

Studies of animals and plants suggest that nutritional conditions in one generation may affect phenotypic characteristics in subsequent generations. A small number of human studies claim to show that pre-pubertal nutritional experience trigger a sex-specific transgenerational response along the male line. A single historical dataset, the Överkalix cohorts in northern Sweden, is often quoted as evidence. To test this hypothesis on an almost 40 times larger dataset we collect harvest data during the pre-pubertal period of grandparents (G0, n = 9,039) to examine its potential association with mortality in children (G1, n = 7,280) and grandchildren (G2, n = 11,561) in the Uppsala Multigeneration Study. We find support for the main Överkalix finding: paternal grandfather's food access in pre-puberty predicts his male, but not female, grandchildren's all-cause mortality. In our study, cancer mortality contributes strongly to this pattern. We are unable to reproduce previous results for diabetes and cardiovascular mortality.

Transgenerational effects of childhood conditions on third generation health and education outcomes.

This paper examines the extent to which pre-puberty nutritional conditions in one generation affect productivity-related outcomes in later generations. Recent findings from the biological literature suggest that the so-called slow growth period around age 9 is a sensitive period for male germ cell development. We build on this evidence and investigate whether undernutrition at those ages transmits to children and grandchildren. Our findings indicate that third generation males (females) tend to have higher mental health scores if their paternal grandfather (maternal grandmother) was exposed to a famine during the slow growth period. These effects appear to reflect biological responses to adaptive expectations about scarcity in the environment, and as such they can be seen as an economic correctional mechanism in evolution, with marked socio-economic implications for the offspring.

Being born under adverse economic conditions leads to a higher cardiovascular mortality rate later in life: evidence based on individuals born at different stages of the business cycle.

We connect the recent medical and economic literatures on the long-run effects of early-life conditions by analyzing the effects of economic conditions on the individual cardiovascular (CV) mortality rate later in life, using individual data records from the Danish Twin Registry covering births since the 1870s and including the cause of death. To capture exogenous variation of conditions early in life, we use the state of the business cycle around birth. We find significant negative effects of economic conditions around birth on the individual CV mortality rate at higher ages. There is no effect on the cancer-specific mortality rate. From variation within and between monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs born under different conditions, we conclude that the fate of an individual is more strongly determined by genetic and household-environmental factors if early-life conditions are poor. Individual-specific qualities come more to fruition if the starting position in life is better.