Discontinuation of anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha treatment owing to blood test abnormalities, and cost-effectiveness of alternate blood monitoring strategies.

BACKGROUND: There is no evidence base to support the use of 6-monthly monitoring blood tests for the early detection of liver, blood and renal toxicity during established anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) treatment. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of anti-TNFα treatment cessation owing to liver, blood and renal side-effects, and to estimate the cost-effectiveness of alternate intervals between monitoring blood tests. METHODS: A secondary care-based retrospective cohort study was performed. Data from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologic and Immunomodulators Register (BADBIR) were used. Patients with at least moderate psoriasis prescribed their first anti-TNFα treatment were included. Treatment discontinuation due to a monitoring blood test abnormality was the primary outcome. Patients were followed-up from start of treatment to the outcome of interest, drug discontinuation, death, 31 July 2021 or up to 5 years, whichever came first. The incidence rate (IR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of anti-TNFα discontinuation with monitoring blood test abnormality was calculated. Multivariate Cox regression was used to examine the association between risk factors and outcome. A mathematical model evaluated costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with increasing the length of time between monitoring blood tests during anti-TNFα treatment. RESULTS: The cohort included 8819 participants [3710 (42.1%) female, mean (SD) age 44.76 (13.20) years] that contributed 25 058 person-years (PY) of follow-up and experienced 125 treatment discontinuations owing to a monitoring blood test abnormality at an IR of 5.85 (95% CI 4.91-6.97)/1000 PY. Of these, 64 and 61 discontinuations occurred within the first year and after the first year of treatment start, at IRs of 8.62 (95% CI 6.74-11.01) and 3.44 (95% CI 2.67-4.42)/1000 PY, respectively. Increasing age (in years), diabetes and liver disease were associated with anti-TNFα discontinuation after a monitoring blood test abnormality [adjusted hazard ratios of 1.02 (95% CI 1.01-1.04), 1.68 (95% CI 1.00-2.81) and 2.27 (95% CI 1.26-4.07), respectively]. Assuming a threshold of £20 000 per QALY gained, no monitoring was most cost-effective, but all extended periods were cost-effective vs. 3- or 6-monthly monitoring. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-TNFα drugs were uncommonly discontinued owing to abnormal monitoring blood tests after the first year of treatment. Extending the duration between monitoring blood tests was cost-effective. Our results produce evidence for specialist society guidance to reduce patient monitoring burden and healthcare costs.

Management of Concomitant Inflammatory Bowel Disease or Uveitis in Patients with Psoriatic Arthritis: An Updated Review Informing the 2021 GRAPPA Treatment Recommendations.

OBJECTIVE: Several advanced therapies have been licensed across the related conditions of psoriatic arthritis (PsA), Crohn disease (CD), ulcerative colitis (UC), and noninfectious uveitis. We sought to summarize results from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the efficacy and safety of advanced therapies for these related conditions in patients with PsA. METHODS: We updated the previous systematic search conducted in 2013 with literature reviews of MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library (from February 2013 to August 2020) on this subject; only those new studies are presented here. The quality of evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) framework. RESULTS: The number of RCTs meeting eligibility criteria were 12 for CD, 15 for UC, and 5 for uveitis. The tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) class appears to be efficacious and safe across CD, UC, and uveitis, with the exception of etanercept. Interleukin 12/23 inhibitors (IL-12/23i) are efficacious for CD and UC. Phase II and III RCTs of Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKi) and IL-23i in CD and UC are promising in terms of efficacy and safety. IL-17i must be used with great caution in patients with PsA at high risk of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). RCTs in uveitis have mainly studied adalimumab. CONCLUSION: We have identified 32 recent RCTs in IBD and uveitis and updated recommendations for managing patients with PsA and these related conditions. A multispecialty approach is essential to effectively, safely, and holistically manage such patients. Advanced therapies are not equally efficacious across these related conditions, with dosing regimens and safety varying.

Management of Psoriatic Arthritis in Patients With Comorbidities: An Updated Literature Review Informing the 2021 GRAPPA Treatment Recommendations.

OBJECTIVE: The 2021 Group for Research and Assessment of Psoriasis and Psoriatic Arthritis (GRAPPA) treatment recommendations provide an evidence-based guide for selecting therapy based on the individual's disease features. Beyond the disease features and associated conditions (eg, uveitis and inflammatory bowel disease), comorbidities play an important role in selecting therapy for an individual patient. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature review. We examined the available evidence to inform treatment selection based on the presence or absence of comorbidities in psoriatic arthritis (PsA). RESULTS: Common comorbidities in PsA that may affect treatment selection include presence of baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD) or high risk for CVD, obesity and metabolic syndrome, liver disease, mood disorders, including depression in particular, chronic infections, malignancies, osteoporosis, and fibromyalgia and/or central sensitization. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities may influence both the effectiveness of a given therapy but also the potential for adverse events. It is important to assess for the presence of comorbidities prior to therapy selection.

GRAPPA Treatment Recommendations: 2021 Update.

Since its inception, one of the central missions of the Group for Research and Assessment of Psoriasis and Psoriatic Arthritis (GRAPPA) has been the development of treatment recommendations for patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The initial guidelines, developed in 2009, were updated in 2015. Because of the abundance of new data concerning the therapeutic approach to PsA, GRAPPA members have been working throughout 2020-2021 to once again update the recommendations. At the GRAPPA 2021 annual meeting, the full committee presented proposals from each of the treatment domain groups, including the comorbidities and related conditions groups, based on previous systematic literature reviews. Overarching principles and summary evidence tables were presented, including results from a GRAPPA membership survey of patients and clinicians to assess levels of agreement. A draft of the figure for the treatment recommendations was presented and discussed with the wider membership.

GRAPPA Treatment Recommendations: An Update From the 2020 GRAPPA Annual Meeting.

Throughout 2020, the Group for Research and Assessment of Psoriasis and Psoriatic Arthritis (GRAPPA) has been working to update the GRAPPA treatment recommendations for psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The planned methodology for this update was published previously, and herein we provide an update on progress so far, including details of the systematic literature searches undertaken. GRAPPA is committed to regular updates of its treatment recommendations to incorporate the many significant therapeutic advances that have taken place in the PsA literature since the previous recommendation publication in 2015. The development and updating of treatment recommendations for optimal treatment approaches for patients with PsA has been an important mission of the GRAPPA since its inception. GRAPPA is currently finalizing domain-specific recommendations with an aim to produce updated treatment recommendations for publication in 2021.

GRAPPA Treatment Recommendations: An Update From the 2020 GRAPPA Annual Meeting.

Throughout 2020, the Group for Research and Assessment of Psoriasis and Psoriatic Arthritis (GRAPPA) has been working to update the GRAPPA treatment recommendations for psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The planned methodology for this update was published previously, and herein we provide an update on progress so far, including details of the systematic literature searches undertaken. GRAPPA is committed to regular updates of its treatment recommendations to incorporate the many significant therapeutic advances that have taken place in the PsA literature since the previous recommendation publication in 2015. The development and updating of treatment recommendations for optimal treatment approaches for patients with PsA has been an important mission of the GRAPPA since its inception. GRAPPA is currently finalizing domain-specific recommendations with an aim to produce updated treatment recommendations for publication in 2021.

Stratified versus usual care for the management of primary care patients with sciatica: the SCOPiC RCT.

BACKGROUND: Sciatica has a substantial impact on patients and society. Current care is 'stepped', comprising an initial period of simple measures of advice and analgesia, for most patients, commonly followed by physiotherapy, and then by more intensive interventions if symptoms fail to resolve. No study has yet tested a model of stratified care in which patients are subgrouped and matched to different care pathways based on their prognosis and clinical characteristics. OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to investigate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a stratified care model compared with usual, non-stratified care. DESIGN: This was a two-parallel group, multicentre, pragmatic, 1 : 1 randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Participants were recruited from primary care (42 general practices) in North Staffordshire, North Shropshire/Wales and Cheshire in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Eligible patients were aged ≥ 18 years, had suspected sciatica, had access to a mobile phone/landline, were not pregnant, were not receiving treatment for the same problem and had not had previous spinal surgery. INTERVENTIONS: In stratified care, a combination of prognostic and clinical criteria associated with referral to spinal specialist services was used to allocate patients to one of three groups for matched care pathways. Group 1 received advice and up to two sessions of physiotherapy, group 2 received up to six sessions of physiotherapy, and group 3 was fast-tracked to magnetic resonance imaging and spinal specialist opinion. Usual care was based on the stepped-care approach without the use of any stratification tools/algorithms. Patients were randomised using a remote web-based randomisation service. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was time to first resolution of sciatica symptoms (six point ordinal scale, collected via text messages). Secondary outcomes (at 4 and 12 months) included pain, function, psychological health, days lost from work, work productivity, satisfaction with care and health-care use. A cost-utility analysis was undertaken over 12 months. A qualitative study explored patients' and clinicians' views of the fast-track care pathway to a spinal specialist. RESULTS: A total of 476 patients were randomised (238 in each arm). For the primary outcome, the overall response rate was 89.3% (88.3% and 90.3% in the stratified and usual care arms, respectively). Relief from symptoms was slightly faster (2 weeks median difference) in the stratified care arm, but this difference was not statistically significant (hazard ratio 1.14, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 1.46; p = 0.288). On average, participants in both arms reported good improvement from baseline, on most outcomes, over time. Following the assessment at the research clinic, most participants in the usual care arm were referred to physiotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: The stratified care model tested in this trial was not more clinically effective than usual care, and was not likely to be a cost-effective option. The fast-track pathway was felt to be acceptable to both patients and clinicians; however, clinicians expressed reluctance to consider invasive procedures if symptoms were of short duration. LIMITATIONS: Participants in the usual care arm, on average, reported good outcomes, making it challenging to demonstrate superiority of stratified care. The performance of the algorithm used to allocate patients to treatment pathways may have influenced results. FUTURE WORK: Other approaches to stratified care may provide superior outcomes for sciatica. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN75449581. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 49. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Sciatica is pain that spreads into the leg because of a trapped nerve in the lower back. It can be a very painful condition that affects everyday life and ability to work. People with sciatica usually see their general practitioner first; if they do not get better over time, they may be referred to a physiotherapist or, eventually, to a spinal specialist. It is difficult to know which sciatica patient will do well without much treatment and who might need to see a physiotherapist or spinal specialist sooner. Stratified care is an approach aiming to help decide, early on, which patients need to see which health professionals. It has previously been shown to be helpful for patients with lower-back pain. In a trial of 476 patients with sciatica a stratified care model was tested to see if it led to faster improvements in sciatica-related leg pain, when compared with usual care. Adults seeing their general practitioner with sciatica were invited to attend a research clinic. Those willing to take part were randomly assigned to stratified care or usual care. Patients in the stratified care arm were referred either to physiotherapy for a short or a longer course of treatment, or to undergo magnetic resonance imaging and see a spinal specialist with the magnetic resonance imaging results within 4 weeks. Pain, function and quality-of-life data were collected over 12 months using text messages and questionnaires. Although patients in the stratified care arm improved slightly more quickly (2 weeks, on average), we did not find convincing evidence that stratified care led to better results than usual care. On average, most patients in both trial arms improved in a similar way over 12 months. The stratified care model tested in this trial did not lead to faster recovery for patients with sciatica than usual care.

Stratified care versus usual care for management of patients presenting with sciatica in primary care (SCOPiC): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Sciatica has a substantial impact on individuals and society. Stratified care has been shown to lead to better outcomes among patients with non-specific low back pain, but it has not been tested for sciatica. We aimed to investigate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of stratified care versus non-stratified usual care for patients presenting with sciatica in primary care. METHODS: We did a two-parallel arm, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial across three centres in the UK (North Staffordshire, North Shropshire/Wales, and Cheshire). Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older, had a clinical diagnosis of sciatica, access to a mobile phone or landline number, were not pregnant, were not currently receiving treatment for the same problem, and had no previous spinal surgery. Patients were recruited from general practices and randomly assigned (1:1) by a remote web-based service to stratified care or usual care, stratified by centre and stratification group allocation. In the stratified care arm, a combination of prognostic and clinical criteria associated with referral to spinal specialist services were used to allocate patients to one of three groups for matched care pathways. Group 1 was offered brief advice and support in up to two physiotherapy sessions; group 2 was offered up to six physiotherapy sessions; and group 3 was fast-tracked to MRI and spinal specialist assessment within 4 weeks of randomisation. The primary outcome was self-reported time to first resolution of sciatica symptoms, defined as "completely recovered" or "much better" on a 6-point ordinal scale, collected via text messages or telephone calls. Analyses were by intention to treat. Health-care costs and cost-effectiveness were also assessed. This trial is registered on the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN75449581. FINDINGS: Between May 28, 2015, and July 18, 2017, 476 patients from 42 general practices around three UK centres were randomly assigned to stratified care or usual care (238 in each arm). For the primary outcome, the overall response rate was 89% (9467 of 10 601 text messages sent; 4688 [88%] of 5310 in the stratified care arm and 4779 [90%] of 5291 in the usual care arm). Median time to symptom resolution was 10 weeks (95% CI 6·4-13·6) in the stratified care arm and 12 weeks (9·4-14·6) in the usual care arm, with the survival analysis showing no significant difference between the arms (hazard ratio 1·14 [95% CI 0·89-1·46]). Stratified care was not cost-effective compared to usual care. INTERPRETATION: The stratified care model for patients with sciatica consulting in primary care was not better than usual care for either clinical or health economic outcomes. These results do not support a transition to this stratified care model for patients with sciatica. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

GRAPPA Treatment Recommendations: Updates and Methods.

The development and updating of treatment recommendations for optimal treatment approaches for patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) has been an important mission of the Group for Research and Assessment of Psoriasis and PsA (GRAPPA) since its inception. Even though the most recent iteration of the GRAPPA PsA recommendations was completed only a few years ago, there have been many significant advances related to therapies and treatment approaches for PsA since their publication. Because of these advances, the process to update the recommendations again has begun. The standard approaches to guideline (or treatment recommendation) development have also evolved in recent years. Herein, the basis for the approach that will be taken for the next version of the GRAPPA PsA treatment recommendations is reviewed.

Predictors of the effects of treatment for shoulder pain: protocol of an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Shoulder pain is one of the most common presentations of musculoskeletal pain with a 1-month population prevalence of between 7 and 26%. The overall prognosis of shoulder pain is highly variable with 40% of patients reporting persistent pain 1 year after consulting their primary care clinician. Despite evidence for prognostic value of a range of patient and disease characteristics, it is not clear whether these factors also predict (moderate) the effect of specific treatments (such as corticosteroid injection, exercise, or surgery). OBJECTIVES: This study aims to identify predictors of treatment effect (i.e. treatment moderators or effect modifiers) by investigating the association between a number of pre-defined individual-level factors and the effects of commonly used treatments on shoulder pain and disability outcomes. METHODS: This will be a meta-analysis using individual participant data (IPD). Eligible trials investigating the effectiveness of advice and analgesics, corticosteroid injection, physiotherapy-led exercise, psychological interventions, and/or surgical treatment in patients with shoulder conditions will be identified from systematic reviews and an updated systematic search for trials, and risk of bias will be assessed. Authors of all eligible trials will be approached for data sharing. Outcomes measured will be shoulder pain and disability, and our previous work has identified candidate predictors. The main analysis will be conducted using hierarchical one-stage IPD meta-analysis models, examining the effect of treatment-predictor interaction on outcome for each of the candidate predictors and describing relevant subgroup effects where significant interaction effects are detected. Random effects will be used to account for clustering and heterogeneity. Sensitivity analyses will be based on (i) exclusion of trials at high risk of bias, (ii) use of restricted cubic splines to model potential non-linear associations for candidate predictors measured on a continuous scale, and (iii) the use of a two-stage IPD meta-analysis framework. DISCUSSION: Our study will collate, appraise, and synthesise IPD from multiple studies to examine potential predictors of treatment effect in order to assess the potential for better and more efficient targeting of specific treatments for individuals with shoulder pain. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018088298.

Predictors of pain interference and potential gain from intervention in community dwelling adults with joint pain: A prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: There is little research on identifying modifiable risk factors that predict future interference of pain with daily activity in people with joint pain, and the estimation of the corresponding population attributable risk (PAR). The present study therefore investigated modifiable predictors of pain interference and estimated maximum potential gain from intervention in adults with joint pain. METHODS: A population-based cohort aged ≥50 years was recruited from eight general practices in North Staffordshire, UK. Participants (n = 1878) had joint pain at baseline lasting ≥3 months and indicated no pain interference. Adjusted associations of self-reported, potentially modifiable prognostic factors (body mass index, anxiety/depressive symptoms, widespread pain, inadequate joint pain control, physical inactivity, sleep problems, smoking and alcohol intake) with onset of pain interference 3 years later were estimated via Poisson regression, and corresponding PAR estimates were obtained. RESULTS: Inadequate joint-specific pain control, insomnia and infrequent walking were found to be independently significantly associated with the onset of pain interference after 3 years, with associated PARs of 6.3% (95% confidence interval -0.3, 12.4), 7.6% (-0.4, 15.0) and 8.0% (0.1, 15.2), respectively, with only the PAR for infrequent walking deemed statistically significant. The PAR associated with insomnia, infrequent walking and inadequate control of joint pain simultaneously was 20.3% (8.6, 30.4). CONCLUSIONS: There is potential to reduce moderately the onset of pain interference from joint pain in the over-50s if clinical and public health interventions targeted pain management and insomnia, and promoted an active lifestyle. However, most of the onset of significant pain interference in the over-50s, would not be prevented, even assuming that these factors could be eliminated.

Diagnostic accuracy of diagnostic imaging for lumbar disc herniation in adults with low back pain or sciatica is unknown; a systematic review.

Main text: We aim to summarize the available evidence on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging (index test) compared to surgery (reference test) for identifying lumbar disc herniation (LDH) in adult patients.For this systematic review we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL (June 2017) for studies that assessed the diagnostic accuracy of imaging for LDH in adult patients with low back pain and surgery as the reference standard. Two review authors independently selected studies, extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We calculated summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity using bivariate analysis, generated linked ROC plots in case of direct comparison of diagnostic imaging tests and assessed the quality of evidence using the GRADE-approach.We found 14 studies, all but one done before 1995, including 940 patients. Nine studies investigated Computed Tomography (CT), eight myelography and six Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). The prior probability of LDH varied from 48.6 to 98.7%. The summary estimates for MRI and myelography were comparable with CT (sensitivity: 81.3% (95%CI 72.3-87.7%) and specificity: 77.1% (95%CI 61.9-87.5%)). The quality of evidence was moderate to very low. Conclusions: The diagnostic accuracy of CT, myelography and MRI of today is unknown, as we found no studies evaluating today's more advanced imaging techniques. Concerning the older techniques we found moderate diagnostic accuracy for all CT, myelography and MRI, indicating a large proportion of false positives and negatives.

Predicting surgical intervention in patients presenting with carpal tunnel syndrome in primary care.

PURPOSE: Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is a symptomatic compression neuropathy of the median nerve. This study investigated the value of candidate prognostic factors (PFs) in predicting carpal tunnel release surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study set in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Patients ≥18 years presenting with an incident episode of CTS were identified between 1989 and 2013. Candidate PF's defined in coded electronic patient records were identified following literature review and consultation with clinicians. Time to first carpal tunnel release surgery was the primary end point. A manual backward stepwise selection procedure was used to obtain an optimal prediction model, which included all the significant PFs. RESULTS: In total, 91,412 patients were included in the cohort. The following PFs were included in an optimal model (C-statistic: 0.588 [95% CI 0.584-0.592]) for predicting surgical intervention: geographical region; deprivation status; age hazard ratio (HR 1.02 per year, 95% CI 1.01-1.02); obesity (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.19-1.27); alcohol drinker (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.10); smoker (HR 1.06, 95% 1.03-1.10); inflammatory condition (HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.98-1.29); neck condition (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03-1.23); and multisite pain (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.05-1.15). Although not included in the multivariable model, pregnancy (if gender female) within 1 year of the index consultation, reduced the risk of surgery (HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.21-0.28). CONCLUSION: This study shows that patients who are older and who have comorbidities including other pain conditions are more likely to have surgery, whereas patients presenting with CTS during or within a year of pregnancy are less likely to have surgery. This information can help to inform clinicians and patients about the likely outcome of treatment and to be aware of which patients may be less responsive to primary care interventions.

Trends in the prevalence, incidence and surgical management of carpal tunnel syndrome between 1993 and 2013: an observational analysis of UK primary care records.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the prevalence, incidence and surgical management of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS), between 1993 and 2013, as recorded in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). DESIGN: We completed a series of cross-sectional epidemiological analyses to observe trends over time. SETTING: Primary care data collected between 1993 and 2013, stored in the CPRD. POPULATION: Individuals aged ≥18 years were selected. Prevalent and incident episodes of CTS and episodes of surgical intervention were identified using a list of preidentified Read codes. ANALYSIS: We defined incident episodes as those with no preceding diagnostic code for CTS in the past 2 years of data. Episodes of surgery were expressed as a percentage of the prevalent population during the same calendar year. Joinpoint regression was used to determine significant changes in the underlying trend. RESULTS: The prevalence of CTS increased over the study period, with a particular incline between 2000 and 2004 (annual percentage change 7.81). The female-to-male prevalence ratio reduced over time from 2.74 in 1993 to 1.93 in 2013. The median age of females and males with CTS were noted to increase from 49 and 53 years, respectively in 1993 to 54 and 59 years, respectively in 2013. Incidence was also noted to increase over time. After an initial increase between 1993 and 2007, the percentage of prevalent patients with a coded surgical episode began to decrease after 2007 to 27.41% in 2013 (annual percentage change -1.7). CONCLUSION: This study has demonstrated that the prevalence and incidence of CTS increased over the study period between 1993 and 2013. Rates of surgery for CTS also increased over the study period; however after 2007, the per cent of patients receiving surgery showed a statistically significant decline back to the rate seen in 2004.

Prognosis of undiagnosed chest pain: linked electronic health record cohort study.

Objective To ascertain long term cardiovascular outcomes in patients whose chest pain remained undiagnosed six months after first presentation.Design Cohort study.Setting UK electronic health record database (CALIBER) linking primary care, secondary care, coronary registry, and death registry information.Participants 172 180 adults aged ≥18 from 223 general practices presenting with a first episode of recorded chest pain, classified from medical records as diagnosed (non-coronary condition or angina) or undiagnosed (cause unattributed) at first consultation between 2002 and 2009 and with no previous record of cardiovascular disease.Main outcome measures Fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events over 5.5 years' follow-up. Adjustments were made for age, sex, deprivation, body mass index, smoking status, year of index presentation, and previous records of diabetes or hypertension or previous prescriptions for lipid lowering drugs.Results At the index presentation, 72.4% of patients (124 688) did not have a cause attributed for their chest pain; 118 687 (95.2%) of these did not receive any type of cardiovascular diagnosis over the next six months. Only a minority of patients in all three groups (non-coronary 2.0% (769 of 39 232); unattributed 11.7% (14 582 of 124 688); angina 31.5% (2606 of 8260)) had a recorded cardiac diagnostic investigation in the first six months after presentation. The long term incidence of cardiovascular events was higher in those whose chest pain remained unattributed after six months (5126 of 109 628; 4.7%) compared with patients with an initial diagnosis of non-coronary pain (1073 of 36 097; 3.0%) (adjusted hazard ratios for 0.5-1 year after presentation: 1.95, 95% confidence interval 1.66 to 2.31; for 1-3 years: 1.35, 1.23 to 1.48); for 3-5.5 years: 1.21, 1.08 to 1.37). Owing to the larger number of patients in the unattributed group, there were more excess myocardial infarctions in the long term in this group (214 more than expected based on the rate in the non-coronary group) than in the angina group (132 more than expected). Patients who had cardiac diagnostic investigations in the first six months had a higher long term risk of cardiovascular events, regardless of the initial chest pain label. Incidence of unattributed chest pain and angina decreased between 2002 (124 per 10 000 person years and 13 per 10 000 person years, respectively) and 2009 (107 per 10 000 person years and 5 per 10 000 person years, respectively), but the incidence of chest pain attributed to a non-coronary cause remained stable (37-40 per 10 000 person years). Risk of cardiovascular events did not change over time.Conclusions Most patients with first onset chest pain do not have a diagnosis recorded at presentation or in the subsequent six months, including those who undergo cardiac investigations. These patients have an increased risk of cardiovascular events for at least five years. Efforts to better assess and reduce the cardiovascular risk of such patients are warranted.

Can we identify who gets benefit or harm from mycophenolate mofetil in systemic lupus erythematosus? A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to summarize the evidence examining factors that predict differential response to mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: Systematic searches of randomized clinical trials (RCT) to identify predictors of the effects of MMF (moderators), and cohort studies to explore prognostic factors associated with MMF outcomes (response, relapse, or adverse events) were performed. Two reviewers independently assessed the methodological quality of RCTs using the Cochrane Collaboration risk of bias tool and cohort studies using the QUality In Prognosis Studies tool. The quality of subgroup analysis, providing evidence for moderation, was evaluated. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation working group approach summarized the quality of evidence (QoE), considering the risk of bias, imprecision, inconsistency, indirectness, and publication bias. RESULTS: From 26 studies (13 from 7 RCTs and 13 cohort studies) we found low QoE evidence for Black/Hispanic race/ethnicity predicting better renal responses to MMF in lupus nephritis (LN) from one RCT. There was low QoE evidence from cohort studies that a higher baseline creatinine and membranous features on renal biopsy were associated with poorer responses in LN. There was very low QoE for other moderators or prognostic factors associated with MMF treatment outcomes. QoE from RCTs was affected by exploratory or insufficient evidence from subgroup analysis and in both study types high risk of bias, indirectness and imprecision also affected QoE. CONCLUSIONS: In SLE, evidence for predictors of response to MMF is limited and none can be recommended for use in routine clinical practice. Specific studies of predictors measured at baseline and during treatment are needed with a priori hypotheses based on preliminary evidence to date and with sufficient power to determine which factors can be employed in clinical decision making.

The clinical and cost effectiveness of steroid injection compared with night splints for carpal tunnel syndrome: the INSTINCTS randomised clinical trial study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Patients diagnosed with idiopathic mild to moderate carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) are usually managed in primary care and commonly treated with night splints and/or corticosteroid injection. The comparative effectiveness of these interventions has not been reliably established nor investigated in the medium and long term. The primary objective of this trial is to investigate whether corticosteroid injection is effective in reducing symptoms and improving hand function in mild to moderate CTS over 6 weeks when compared with night splints. Secondary objectives are to determine specified comparative clinical outcomes and cost effectiveness of corticosteroid injection over 6 and 24 months. METHOD/DESIGN: A multicentre, randomised, parallel group, clinical pragmatic trial will recruit 240 adults aged ≥18 years with mild to moderate CTS from GP Practices and Primary-Secondary Care Musculoskeletal Interface Clinics. Diagnosis will be by standardised clinical assessment. Participants will be randomised on an equal basis to receive either one injection of 20 mg Depo-Medrone or a night splint to be worn for 6 weeks. The primary outcome is the overall score of the Boston Carpal Tunnel Questionnaire (BCTQ) at 6 weeks. Secondary outcomes are the BCTQ symptom severity and function status subscales, symptom intensity, interrupted sleep, adherence to splinting, perceived benefit and satisfaction with treatment, work absence and reduction in work performance, EQ-5D-5L, referral to surgery and health utilisation costs. Participants will be assessed at baseline and followed up at 6 weeks, 6, 12 and 24 months. The primary analysis will use an intention to treat (ITT) approach and multiple imputation for missing data. The sample size was calculated to detect a 15 % greater improvement in the BTCQ overall score in the injection group compared to night-splinting at approximately 90 % power, 5 % two-tailed significance and allows for 15 % loss to follow-up. DISCUSSION: The trial makes an important contribution to the evidence base available to support effective conservative management of CTS in primary care. No previous trials have directly compared these treatments for CTS in primary care populations, reported on clinical effectiveness at more than 6 months nor compared cost effectiveness of the interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registration: EudraCT 2013-001435-48 (registered 05/06/2013), ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02038452 (registered 16/1/2014), and Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN09392969 (retrospectively registered 01/05/2014).

Magnetic resonance imaging for diagnosing lumbar spinal pathology in adult patients with low back pain or sciatica: a diagnostic systematic review.

PURPOSE: In about 5% of all cases LBP is associated with serious underlying pathology requiring diagnostic confirmation and directed treatment. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is often used for this diagnostic purpose yet its role remains controversial. Consequently, this review aimed to summarize the available evidence on the diagnostic accuracy of MRI for identifying lumbar spinal pathology in adult low back pain (LPB) or sciatica patients. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL were searched (until December 2009) for observational studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of MRI compared to a reference test for the identification of lumbar spinal pathology. Two reviewers independently selected studies for inclusion, extracted data and assessed methodological quality. Pooled summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for homogenous subsets of studies. RESULTS: Eight studies were included in this review. Strata were defined for separate pathologies i.e. lumbar disc herniation (HNP) and spinal stenosis. Five studies comparing MRI to findings at the surgery for identifying HNP were included in a meta-analysis. Pooled analysis resulted in a summary estimate of sensitivity of 75% (95% CI 65-83%) and specificity of 77% (95% CI 61-88%). For spinal stenosis pooling was not possible. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that a considerable proportion of patients may be classified incorrectly by MRI for HNP and spinal stenosis. However, the evidence for the diagnostic accuracy of MRI found by this review is not conclusive, since the results could be distorted due to the limited number of studies and large heterogeneity.

The search for stable prognostic models in multiple imputed data sets.

BACKGROUND: In prognostic studies model instability and missing data can be troubling factors. Proposed methods for handling these situations are bootstrapping (B) and Multiple imputation (MI). The authors examined the influence of these methods on model composition. METHODS: Models were constructed using a cohort of 587 patients consulting between January 2001 and January 2003 with a shoulder problem in general practice in the Netherlands (the Dutch Shoulder Study). Outcome measures were persistent shoulder disability and persistent shoulder pain. Potential predictors included socio-demographic variables, characteristics of the pain problem, physical activity and psychosocial factors. Model composition and performance (calibration and discrimination) were assessed for models using a complete case analysis, MI, bootstrapping or both MI and bootstrapping. RESULTS: Results showed that model composition varied between models as a result of how missing data was handled and that bootstrapping provided additional information on the stability of the selected prognostic model. CONCLUSION: In prognostic modeling missing data needs to be handled by MI and bootstrap model selection is advised in order to provide information on model stability.

Negative association of concomitant physical symptoms with the course of major depressive disorder: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: The prognosis of depression greatly varies among patients, and the physical symptoms that often accompany depression may predict treatment resistance and a worse outcome. If so, this may have important clinical implications. The aim of this systematic review was to explore the association of concomitant physical symptoms with the outcome of major depressive disorder (MDD). METHODS: Systematic review: Medline, Psychinfo, and the Cochrane Library were searched for prospective, cross-sectional, and retrospective studies, and also for open-label trials and randomized controlled trials. The risk of bias assessment and data extraction were performed in duplicate. A qualitative best-evidence synthesis was performed, based on the number of studies reporting on the association between physical symptoms and the course of MDD, the consistency of the results, and the methodological quality. The findings were reported according to the PRISMA guidelines. RESULTS: Nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Although the design, outcome measures, and data presentation varied too much to make statistical pooling possible, the best evidence synthesis resulted in strong, consistent evidence for a negative association between physical symptoms and the course of MDD. CONCLUSION: This systematic review shows a negative association of concomitant physical symptoms with the course of MDD. The effect might be considerable, but the number of studies addressing this topic is small and there was a wide variation in the study designs and outcome measures. More research is needed.