Predicting the Individual Treatment Effect of Neurosurgery for Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury in the Low-Resource Setting: A Machine Learning Approach in Uganda.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) disproportionately affects low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In these low-resource settings, effective triage of patients with TBI-including the decision of whether or not to perform neurosurgery-is critical in optimizing patient outcomes and healthcare resource utilization. Machine learning may allow for effective predictions of patient outcomes both with and without surgery. Data from patients with TBI was collected prospectively at Mulago National Referral Hospital in Kampala, Uganda, from 2016 to 2019. One linear and six non-linear machine learning models were designed to predict good versus poor outcome near hospital discharge and internally validated using nested five-fold cross-validation. The 13 predictors included clinical variables easily acquired on admission and whether or not the patient received surgery. Using an elastic-net regularized logistic regression model (GLMnet), with predictions calibrated using Platt scaling, the probability of poor outcome was calculated for each patient both with and without surgery (with the difference quantifying the "individual treatment effect," ITE). Relative ITE represents the percent reduction in chance of poor outcome, equaling this ITE divided by the probability of poor outcome with no surgery. Ultimately, 1766 patients were included. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCs) ranged from 83.1% (single C5.0 ruleset) to 88.5% (random forest), with the GLMnet at 87.5%. The two variables promoting good outcomes in the GLMnet model were high Glasgow Coma Scale score and receiving surgery. For the subgroup not receiving surgery, the median relative ITE was 42.9% (interquartile range [IQR], 32.7% to 53.5%); similarly, in those receiving surgery, it was 43.2% (IQR, 32.9% to 54.3%). We provide the first machine learning-based model to predict TBI outcomes with and without surgery in LMICs, thus enabling more effective surgical decision making in the resource-limited setting. Predicted ITE similarity between surgical and non-surgical groups suggests that, currently, patients are not being chosen optimally for neurosurgical intervention. Our clinical decision aid has the potential to improve outcomes.

Natural Language Processing of Radiology Reports in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma to Predict Radiology Resource Utilization.

OBJECTIVE: Radiology is a finite health care resource in high demand at most health centers. However, anticipating fluctuations in demand is a challenge because of the inherent uncertainty in disease prognosis. The aim of this study was to explore the potential of natural language processing (NLP) to predict downstream radiology resource utilization in patients undergoing surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: All HCC surveillance CT examinations performed at our institution from January 1, 2010, to October 31, 2017 were selected from our departmental radiology information system. We used open source NLP and machine learning software to parse radiology report text into bag-of-words and term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) representations. Three machine learning models-logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), and random forest-were used to predict future utilization of radiology department resources. A test data set was used to calculate accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity in addition to the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: As a group, the bag-of-word models were slightly inferior to the TF-IDF feature extraction approach. The TF-IDF + SVM model outperformed all other models with an accuracy of 92%, a sensitivity of 83%, and a specificity of 96%, with an AUC of 0.971. CONCLUSIONS: NLP-based models can accurately predict downstream radiology resource utilization from narrative HCC surveillance reports and has potential for translation to health care management where it may improve decision making, reduce costs, and broaden access to care.

Computer-Aided Detection of Colorectal Polyps at CT Colonography: Prospective Clinical Performance and Third-Party Reimbursement.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the initial clinical performance and third-party reimbursement rates of supplementary computer-aided detection (CAD) at CT colonography (CTC) for detecting colorectal polyps 6 mm or larger in routine clinical practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively assessed the prospective clinical performance of a U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved CAD system in second-reader mode in 347 consecutive adults (mean age, 57.6 years; 205 women, 142 men) undergoing CTC evaluation over a 5-month period. The reference standard consisted of the prospective interpretation by experienced CTC radiologists combined with subsequent optical colonoscopy (OC), if performed. We also assessed third-party reimbursement for CAD for studies performed over an 18-month period. RESULTS: In all, 69 patients (mean [± SD] age, 59.0 ± 7.7 years; 32 men, 37 women) had 129 polyps ≥ 6 mm. Per-patient CAD sensitivity was 91.3% (63 of 69). Per-polyp CAD-alone sensitivity was 88.4% (114 of 129), including 88.3% (83 of 94) for 6- to 9-mm polyps and 88.6% (31 of 35) for polyps 10 mm or larger. On retrospective review, three additional polyps 6 mm or larger were seen at OC and marked by CAD but dismissed as CAD false-positives at CTC. The mean number of false-positive CAD marks was 4.4 ± 3.1 per series. Of 1225 CTC cases reviewed for reimbursement, 31.0% of the total charges for CAD interpretation had been recovered from a variety of third-party payers. CONCLUSION: In our routine clinical practice, CAD showed good sensitivity for detecting colorectal polyps 6 mm or larger, with an acceptable number of false-positive marks. Importantly, CAD is already being reimbursed by some third-party payers in our clinical CTC practice.