Lower Vegetable Variety and Worsening Diet Quality Over Time Are Associated With Higher 15-Year Health Care Claims and Costs Among Australian Women.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between diet quality and health care costs is unclear. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between baseline diet quality and change in diet quality over time, with 15-year cumulative health care claims/costs. DESIGN: Data from a longitudinal cohort study were analyzed. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: Data for survey 3 (2001) (n = 7,868) and survey 7 (2013) (n = 6,349 both time points) from the 1946-1951 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health were analyzed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Diet quality was assessed using the Australian Recommended Food Score (ARFS). Fifteen-year cumulative Medicare Benefits Schedule (Australia's universal health care coverage) data were reported by baseline ARFS quintile and category of diet quality change ("diet quality worsened" [ARFS change ≤ -4 points], "remained stable" [-3 ≤ change in ARFS ≤3 points], or "improved" [ARFS change ≥4 points]). STATISTICAL ANALYSES: Linear regression analyses were conducted adjusting for area of residence, socioeconomic status, lifestyle factors, and private health insurance status. RESULTS: Consuming a greater variety of vegetables at baseline but fewer fruit and dairy products was associated with lower health care costs. For every 1-point increment in the ARFS vegetable subscale, women made 3.3 (95% CI, 1.6-5.0) fewer claims and incurred AU$227 (95% CI, AU$104-350 [US$158; 95% CI, US$72-243]) less in costs. Women whose diet quality worsened over time made more claims (median, 251 claims; quintile 1, quintile 3 [Q1; Q3], 168; 368 claims) and incurred higher costs (AU$15,519; Q1; Q3, AU$9,226; AU$24,847 [US$10,793; Q1; Q3, US$6,417; US$17,281]) compared with those whose diet quality remained stable (median, 236 claims [Q1; Q3, 158; 346 claims], AU$14,515; Q1; Q3, AU$8,539; AU$23,378 [US$10,095; Q1; Q3, US$5,939; US$16,259]). CONCLUSIONS: Greater vegetable variety was associated with fewer health care claims and costs; however, this trend was not consistent across other subscales. Worsening diet quality over 12 years was linked with higher health care claims and costs.

Are current DRG-based bundled payment models for lumbar fusions risk-adjusting adequately? An analysis of Medicare beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Current bundled payment programs in spine surgery, such as the bundled payment for care improvement rely on the use of diagnosis-related groups (DRG) to define payments. However, these DRGs may not be adequate enough to appropriately capture the large amount of variation seen in spine procedures. For example, DRG 459 (spinal fusion except cervical with major comorbidity or complication) and DRG 460 (spinal fusion except cervical without major comorbidity or complication) do not differentiate between the type of fusion (anterior or posterior), the levels/extent of fusion, the use of interbody/graft/BMP, indication of surgery (primary vs. revision) or even if the surgery was being performed for a vertebral fracture. PURPOSE: We carried out a comprehensive analysis to report the factors responsible for cost-variation in a bundled payment model for spinal fusions. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective review of a 5% national sample of Medicare claims from 2008 to 2014 (SAF5). OUTCOME MEASURES: To understand the independent marginal cost impact of various patient-level, geographic-level, and procedure-level characteristics on 90-day costs for patients undergoing spinal fusions under DRG 459 and 460. METHODS: The 2008 to 2014 Medicare 5% standard analytical files (SAF) were used to retrieve patients undergoing spinal fusions under DRG 459 and DRG 460 only. Patients with missing gender, age, and/or state-level data were excluded. Only those patients who had complete data, with regard to payments/costs/reimbursements, starting from day 0 of surgery up to 90 days postoperatively were included to prevent erroneous collection. Multivariate linear regression models were built to assess the independent marginal cost impact (decrease/increase) of each patient-level, state-level, and procedure-level characteristics on the average 90-day cost while controlling for other covariates. RESULTS: A total of 21,367 patients (DRG-460=20,154; DRG-459=1,213) were included in the study. The average 90-day cost for all lumbar fusions was $31,716±$18,124, with the individual 90-day payments being $54,607±$30,643 (DRG-459) and $30,338±$16,074 (DRG-460). Increasing age was associated with significant marginal increases in 90-day payments (70-74 years: +$2,387, 75-79 years: +$3,389, 80-84 years: +$2,872, ≥85: +$1,627). With regards to procedure-level factors-undergoing an anterior fusion (+$3,118), >3 level fusion (+$5,648) vs. 1 to 3 level fusion, use of interbody device (+$581), intraoperative neuromonitoring (+$1,413), concurrent decompression (+$768) and undergoing surgery for thoracolumbar fracture (+$6,169) were associated with higher 90-day costs. Most individual comorbidities were associated with higher 90-day costs, with malnutrition (+$12,264), CVA/stroke (+$5,886), Alzheimer's (+$4,968), Parkinson's disease (+$4,415), and coagulopathy (+$3,810) having the highest marginal 90-day cost-increases. The top five states with the highest marginal cost-increase, in comparison to Michigan (reference), were Maryland (+$12,657), Alaska (+$11,292), California (+$10,040), Massachusetts (+$8,800), and the District of Columbia (+$8,315). CONCLUSIONS: Under the proposed DRG-based bundled payment model, providers would be reimbursed the same amount for lumbar fusions regardless of the surgical approach (posterior vs. anterior), the extent of fusion (1-3 level vs. >3 level), use of adjunct procedures (decompressions) and cause/indication of surgery (fracture vs. degenerative pathology), despite each of these factors having different resource utilization and associated costs. When defining and developing future bundled payments for spinal fusions, health-policy makers should strive to account for the individual patient-level, state-level, and procedure-level variation seen within DRGs to prevent the creation of a financial dis-incentive in taking care of sicker patients and/or performing more extensive complex spinal fusions.

Evaluation of the Statewide Variability in the Current Role of Different Specialties in Lower Extremity Endovascular Revascularization for Medicare Beneficiaries.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the statewide variability in the role of different specialties in lower extremity endovascular revascularization (LEER) and associated submitted charges of care and actual reimbursement for Medicare beneficiaries. METHODS: The 2015 "Medicare Provider Utilization and Payment Data: Physician and Other Supplier" data includes provider-specific information regarding the type of service, submitted average charges of care, and actual average Medicare reimbursements per Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System (HCPCS) code per provider. All HCPCS codes related to LEER were identified. The role of vascular surgery (VS), interventional cardiology (IC), and interventional radiology (IR) in each HCPCS-specific intervention was investigated. RESULTS: In 2015, 4113 providers submitted claims for iliac (n = 13,659), femoropopliteal (n = 52,344), and tibioperoneal (n = 32,688) endovascular revascularizations. In the facility setting, VS performed most of these procedures (52%), followed by IC (32%) and IR (8%). In the outpatient-based lab setting, the proportions were 46%, 36%, and 13%, respectively. Substantial statewide variability in the role of different specialties in LEER was noted. In Maine, Vermont, and Hawaii, all facility claims were submitted by VS, while more than 70% of the claims in Arizona and Utah were submitted by IC. The highest share of LEER for IR was observed in Montana and North Dakota (50%). There was substantial statewide variability in the submitted charges. CONCLUSION: Currently, less than 10% of LEER procedures are being performed by IR. The statewide variability in the submitted charges of care by providers and actual reimbursement for Medicare beneficiaries were investigated in this study.

Evolving Trends in Insurance Coverage of Vascular Surgery Patients in Academic Practice.

BACKGROUND: Insurance coverage of vascular surgery patients may differ from patients with less chronic surgical pathologies. The goal of this study is to identify trends in insurance status of vascular surgery patients over the last 10 years at a busy academic center. METHODS: All consecutive patient visits for a vascular procedure from 2006 to 2016 were retrospectively reviewed from a prospectively collected institutional database. Data points included insurance status, procedures performed, and date of admission. The insurance status was categorized as Medicare, Medicaid, and uninsured. Samples were divided between 2006-2009 and 2011-2016 for comparison. Unpaired t-test, chi-squared test, and regression analysis were used to determine significant trends over the study period. RESULTS: From 2006 to 2016, 6,007 vascular surgery procedures were performed. Procedure volume increased significantly from 1,309 to 4,698 between the 2 timeframes (P < 0.05), whereas the percentage of Medicaid and Medicare patients trended upward but did not achieve significance. There was a significant decrease in the percentage of uninsured patients between the cohorts (5.65% vs. 2.96%, P < 0.05). In 2012, 10.14% of patients were uninsured compared with 2.56% in 2016 (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Insurance status affects access to care and subsequent outcomes. In our busy academic center, insurance coverage for vascular surgery has significantly increased over the past decade. The number of Medicaid and Medicare patients has slowly increased, but a significant and continuing decline in uninsured patients was observed. Implementation of the Affordable Care Act during this time period may have played a role in providing coverage for patient needing vascular surgery.

Reasons for underutilization of bariatric surgery: The role of insurance benefit design.

Despite the effectiveness of bariatric surgery, both with respect to weight loss and improvements in obesity-related co-morbidities, it remains underused. Only 1% of the currently eligible population undergoes surgical treatment for obesity, with roughly 228,000 individuals receiving bariatric surgery in the United States each year. Several barriers to bariatric surgery have been identified, including limited patient and referring physician knowledge and attitudes regarding the effectiveness and safety of bariatric surgery. However, the role of insurance coverage and benefit design as a barrier to access to care has received less attention to date. Bariatric surgery is cost-effective compared with nonsurgical treatments among individuals with extreme obesity and type 2 diabetes. While it may not result in cost savings among all bariatric surgery eligible patients, for certain patient subgroups, bariatric surgery may be cost neutral compared with traditional treatment options. In addition, longer-term outcomes of bariatric surgery suggest decreased or stable costs in the long run. The purpose of this review paper was to synthesize the existing knowledge on why bariatric surgery remains largely underused in the United States with a focus on health insurance benefits and design. In addition, the review discusses the applicability of value-based insurance design to bariatric surgery. Value-based insurance design has been previously applied to bariatric surgery coverage with use of incentive-based cost-sharing adjustments. Its application could be further extended because the postoperative clinical outcomes and costs vary among the different subgroups of bariatric surgery eligible patients.

Association Between Postoperative Pneumonia and 90-Day Episode Payments and Outcomes Among Medicare Beneficiaries Undergoing Cardiac Surgery.

Background Postoperative pneumonia is the most common healthcare-associated infection in cardiac surgical patients, yet their impact across a 90-day episode of care remains unknown. Our objective was to examine the relationship between pneumonia and 90-day episode payments and outcomes among Medicare beneficiaries undergoing cardiac surgery. Methods and Results Medicare claims were used to identify beneficiaries with episodes of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG; n=56 728) and valve surgery (n=56 377) across 1045 centers between April 2014 and March 2015. Using a published diagnosis code-based algorithm, we identified pneumonia in 6.4% CABG episodes and 6.6% of valve surgery episodes. We compared price-standardized 90-day episode payments and outcome measures (postoperative length of stay, discharge to postacute care, mortality, and readmission) between beneficiaries with and without pneumonia using hierarchical regression models, adjusting for patient factors and hospital random effects. Pneumonia was associated with 24.5% higher episode payments for CABG ($46 723 versus $37 496; P<0.001) and 26.5% higher episode payments for valve surgery ($61 544 versus $48 549; P<0.001). For both cohorts, pneumonia was significantly associated with longer postoperative length of stay (CABG: +4.1 days, valve: +5.6 days), more frequent discharge to postacute care (CABG: odds ratio [OR]=1.99, valve: OR=2.17), and higher rates of 30-day mortality (CABG: OR=2.42, valve: OR=2.57) and 90-day readmission (CABG: OR=1.20, valve: OR=1.25), all P<0.001. We compared episode payments and outcomes across terciles of pneumonia rates and found that high pneumonia rate hospitals had higher episode payments and poorer outcomes compared with episodes at low pneumonia rate hospitals in both CABG and valve surgery cohorts. Conclusions Postoperative pneumonia was associated with significantly higher 90-day episode payments and inferior outcomes at the patient and hospital level. Future work should examine whether reducing pneumonia after cardiac surgery reduces episode spending and improves outcomes, which could facilitate hospital success in value-based reimbursement programs.

Out-of-Pocket and Health Care Spending Changes for Patients Using Orally Administered Anticancer Therapy After Adoption of State Parity Laws.

Importance: Oral anticancer medications are increasingly important but costly treatment options for patients with cancer. By early 2017, 43 states and Washington, DC, had passed laws to ensure patients with private insurance enrolled in fully insured health plans pay no more for anticancer medications administered by mouth than anticancer medications administered by infusion. Federal legislation regarding this issue is currently pending. Despite their rapid acceptance, the changes associated with state adoption of oral chemotherapy parity laws have not been described. Objective: To estimate changes in oral anticancer medication use, out-of-pocket spending, and health plan spending associated with oral chemotherapy parity law adoption. Design, Setting, and Participants: Analysis of administrative health plan claims data from 2008-2012 for 3 large nationwide insurers aggregated by the Health Care Cost Institute. Data analysis was first completed in 2015 and updated in 2017. The study population included 63 780 adults living in 1 of 16 states that passed parity laws during the study period and who received anticancer drug treatment for which orally administered treatment options were available. Study analysis used a difference-in-differences approach. Exposures: Time period before and after adoption of state parity laws, controlling for whether the patient was enrolled in a plan subject to parity (fully insured) or not (self-funded, exempt via the Employee Retirement Income Security Act). Main Outcomes and Measures: Oral anticancer medication use, out-of-pocket spending, and total health care spending. Results: Of the 63 780 adults aged 18 through 64 years, 51.4% participated in fully insured plans and 48.6% in self-funded plans (57.2% were women; 76.8% were aged 45 to 64 years). The use of oral anticancer medication treatment as a proportion of all anticancer treatment increased from 18% to 22% (adjusted difference-in-differences risk ratio [aDDRR], 1.04; 95% CI, 0.96-1.13; P = .34) comparing months before vs after parity. In plans subject to parity laws, the proportion of prescription fills for orally administered therapy without copayment increased from 15.0% to 53.0%, more than double the increase (12.3%-18.0%) in plans not subject to parity (P < .001). The proportion of patients with out-of-pocket spending of more than $100 per month increased from 8.4% to 11.1% compared with a slight decline from 12.0% to 11.7% in plans not subject to parity (P = .004). In plans subject to parity laws, estimated monthly out-of-pocket spending decreased by $19.44 at the 25th percentile, by $32.13 at the 50th percentile, and by $10.83 at the 75th percentile but increased at the 90th ($37.19) and 95th ($143.25) percentiles after parity (all P < .001, controlling for changes in plans not subject to parity). Parity laws did not increase 6-month total spending for users of any anticancer therapy or for users of oral anticancer therapy alone. Conclusions and Relevance: While oral chemotherapy parity laws modestly improved financial protection for many patients without increasing total health care spending, these laws alone may be insufficient to ensure that patients are protected from high out-of-pocket medication costs.

The Association Between Local Economic Conditions and Opioid Prescriptions Among Disabled Medicare Beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: This paper concerns public health crises today-the problem of opioid prescription access and related abuse. Inspired by Case and Deaton's seminal work on increasing mortality among white Americans with lower education, this paper explores the relationship between opioid prescribing and local economic factors. OBJECTIVE: We examined the association between county-level socioeconomic factors (median household income, unemployment rate, Gini index) and opioid prescribing. SUBJECTS: We used the complete 2014 Medicare enrollment and part D drug prescription data from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services to study opioid prescriptions of disabled Medicare beneficiaries without record of cancer treatment, palliative care, or end-of-life care. MEASURES AND RESEARCH DESIGN: We summarized the demographic and geographic variation, and investigated how the local economic environment, measured by county median household income, unemployment rate, Gini index, and urban-rural classification correlated with various measures of individual opioid prescriptions. Measures included number of filled opioid prescriptions, total days' supply, average morphine milligram equivalent (MME)/day, and annual total MME dosage. To assess the robustness of the results, we controlled for individual and other county characteristics, used multiple estimation methods including linear least squares, logistic regression, and Tobit regression. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Lower county median household income, higher unemployment rates, and less income inequality were consistently associated with more and higher MME opioid prescriptions among disabled Medicare beneficiaries. Geographically, we found that the urban-rural divide was not gradual and that beneficiaries in large central metro counties were less likely to have an opioid prescription than those living in other areas.

Challenges in the Analysis of Outcomes for Surgical Compared to Radiotherapy Treatment of Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Prostate cancer can be treated with radical prostatectomy (RP), external-beam radiotherapy (EBRT), or brachytherapy (BT). These modalities have similar cancer-related outcomes. We used an innovative method to analyze the cost of such treatment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We queried our Institution's Insurance Division [University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC) Health Plan] beneficiaries from 2003-2008, who were diagnosed with prostate cancer and also queried the UPMC tumor registry for all patients with prostate cancer treated at our Institution. In a de-identified manner, data from the Health Plan and Tumor Registry were merged. RESULTS: A total of 354 patients with non-metastatic disease with treatment initiated within 9 months of diagnosis were included (RP=236, EBRT=55, and BT=63). Radiotherapy-treated patients tended to be older, higher-risk, and have more comorbidities. Unadjusted median total health care expenditures during the first year after diagnosis were: RP: $16,743, EBRT: $47,256, and BT: $23,237 (p<0.0005). A propensity score-matched model comparing RP and EBRT demonstrated median total health care expenditures during year one: RP: $8,189, EBRT: $10,081; p=0.48. In a propensity-matched model comparing RP and BT, the median total health care expenditures during year one were: RP: $18,143, BT: $26,531; p=0.015 and per year during years 2 through 5 from diagnosis were: RP: $5,913, BT: $6,110; p=0.68. CONCLUSION: This pilot study demonstrates the feasibility of combining healthcare costs from the payer's perspective with clinical data from a Tumor Registry within an IDFS and represents a novel approach to investigating the economic impact of cancer treatment.

Subsidies for Oral Chemotherapy and Use of Immunomodulatory Drugs Among Medicare Beneficiaries With Myeloma.

Purpose The low-income subsidy (LIS) substantially lowers out-of-pocket costs for qualifying Medicare Part D beneficiaries who receive orally administered chemotherapy. We examined the association of LIS with the use of novel oral immunomodulatory drugs (IMiDs; lenalidomide and thalidomide) among beneficiaries with myeloma, who can receive either orally administered or parenteral (bortezomib-based) therapy. Methods Using SEER-Medicare data, we identified Part D beneficiaries diagnosed with myeloma in 2007 to 2011. In multivariable models adjusted for sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, we analyzed associations between the LIS and use of IMiD-based therapy, delays between IMiD refills, and select health outcomes during the first year of therapy. Results Among 3,038 beneficiaries, 41% received first-line IMiDs. Median out-of-pocket cost for the first IMiD prescription was $3,178 for LIS nonrecipients and $3 for LIS recipients, whereas the respective median costs for the first year of therapy were $5,623 and $6, respectively. Receipt of the LIS was associated with a 32% higher (95% CI, 16% to 47%) probability of receiving IMiDs among beneficiaries age 75 to 84 years and a significantly lower risk of delays between refills in all age groups (adjusted relative risk, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.92). Duration of therapy did not significantly differ between LIS recipients and nonrecipients (median, 7.6 months). Patients treated with IMiDs had significantly fewer emergency department visits and hospitalizations compared with patients receiving bortezomib (without IMiDs), but 1-year overall survival and cumulative Medicare costs were similar. Conclusion Medicare beneficiaries with myeloma who do not receive LISs face a substantial financial barrier to accessing orally administered anticancer therapy, warranting urgent attention from policymakers. Limiting out-of-pocket costs for expensive anticancer drugs like the IMiDs may improve access to oral therapy for patients with myeloma.

Early Adoption of a Multitarget Stool DNA Test for Colorectal Cancer Screening.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize early adoption of a novel multitarget stool DNA (MT-sDNA) screening test for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and to test the hypothesis that adoption differs by demographic characteristics and prior CRC screening behavior and proceeds predictably over time. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used the Rochester Epidemiology Project research infrastructure to assess the use of the MT-sDNA screening test in adults aged 50 to 75 years living in Olmsted County, Minnesota, in 2014 and identified 27,147 individuals eligible or due for screening colonoscopy from November 1, 2014, through November 30, 2015. We used electronic Current Procedure Terminology and Health Care Common Procedure codes to evaluate early adoption of the MT-sDNA screening test in this population and to test whether early adoption varies by age, sex, race, and prior CRC screening behavior. RESULTS: Overall, 2193 (8.1%) and 974 (3.6%) individuals were screened by colonoscopy and MT-sDNA, respectively. Age, sex, race, and prior CRC screening behavior were significantly and independently associated with MT-sDNA screening use compared with colonoscopy use after adjustment for all other variables (P<.05 for all). The rates of adoption of MT-sDNA screening increased over time and were highest in those aged 50 to 54 years, women, whites, and those who had a history of screening. The use of the MT-sDNA screening test varied predictably by insurance coverage. The rates of colonoscopy decreased over time, whereas overall CRC screening rates remained steady. CONCLUSION: The results of the present study are generally consistent with predictions derived from prior research and the diffusion of innovation framework, pointing to increasing use of the new screening test over time and early adoption by younger patients, women, whites, and those with prior CRC screening.

[Return to Work After Shoulder Arthroscopy as an Index of Cost Effectiveness]. / Nutzenbewertung der minimal-invasiven Schulterchirurgie aus Sicht der Kostenträger.

Cost-effectiveness of shoulder arthroscopy was analyzed and assessed by the days off work as part of the indirect costs. We retrospectively evaluated a group of 266 inpatients on sick leave after arthroscopic shoulder surgery. Mean duration till return to full duty was 9.5 days, the mean sick leave benefit was € 485. There was a statistically significant difference in the mean time to return to work between the older (age >50) and the younger group (age under 50). Secondary data analysis of sick leave and sickness benefits as indirect costs of medical treatment seems to be well suited to provide essentiell information to health care policy makers and those charged with distributing disability funds.

Assessing the Effects of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme on Alleviating the Health Payment-Induced Poverty in Shaanxi Province, China.

BACKGROUND: Disease has become one of the key causes of falling into poverty in rural China. The poor households are even more likely to suffer. The New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) has been implemented to provide rural residents financial protection against health risks. This study aims to assess the effect of the NCMS on alleviating health payment-induced poverty in the Shaanxi Province of China. METHODS: The data was drawn from the 5th National Health Service Survey of Shaanxi Province, conducted in 2013. In total, 41,037 individuals covered by NCMS were selected. Poverty headcount ratio (HCR), poverty gap and mean positive poverty gap were used for measuring the incidence, depth and intensity of poverty, respectively. The differences on poverty measures pre- and post- insurance reimbursement indicate the effectiveness of alleviating health payment-induced poverty under NCMS. RESULTS: For the general insured, 5.81% of households fell below the national poverty line owing to the health payment; this HCR dropped to 4.84% after insurance reimbursement. The poverty HCRs for the insured that had hospitalization in the past year dropped from 7.50% to 2.09% after reimbursement. With the NCMS compensation, the poverty gap declined from 42.90 Yuan to 34.49 Yuan (19.60% decreased) for the general insured and from 57.48 Yuan to 10.01 Yuan (82.59% decreased) for the hospital admission insured. The mean positive poverty gap declined 3.56% and 37.40% for two samples, respectively. CONCLUSION: The NCMS could alleviate the health payment-induced poverty. The effectiveness of alleviating health payment-induced poverty is greater for hospital admission insured than for general insured, mainly because NCMS compensates for serious diseases. Our study suggests that a more comprehensive insurance benefit package design could further improve the effectiveness of poverty alleviation.

Knowledge of and Attitudes Toward Evidence-Based Guidelines for and Against Clinical Preventive Services: Results from a National Survey.

POLICY POINTS: Both the underuse and overuse of clinical preventive services relative to evidence-based guidelines are a public health concern. Informed consumers are an important foundation of many components of the Affordable Care Act, including coverage mandates for proven clinical preventive services recommended by the US Preventive Services Task Force. Across sociodemographic groups, however, knowledge of and positive attitudes toward evidence-based guidelines for preventive care are extremely low. Given the demonstrated low levels of consumers' knowledge of and trust in guidelines, coupled with their strong preference for involvement in preventive care decisions, better education and decision-making support for evidence-based preventive services are greatly needed. CONTEXT: Both the underuse and overuse of clinical preventive services are a serious public health problem. The goal of our study was to produce population-based national data that could assist in the design of communication strategies to increase knowledge of and positive attitudes toward evidence-based guidelines for clinical preventive services (including the US Preventive Services Task Force, USPSTF) and to reduce uncertainty among patients when guidelines change or are controversial. METHODS: In late 2013 we implemented an Internet-based survey of a nationally representative sample of 2,529 adults via KnowledgePanel, a probability-based survey panel of approximately 60,000 adults, statistically representative of the US noninstitutionalized population. African Americans, Hispanics, and those with less than a high school education were oversampled. We then conducted descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression analysis to identify the prevalence of and sociodemographic characteristics associated with key knowledge and attitudinal variables. FINDINGS: While 36.4% of adults reported knowing that the Affordable Care Act requires insurance companies to cover proven preventive services without cost sharing, only 7.7% had heard of the USPSTF. Approximately 1 in 3 (32.6%) reported trusting that a government task force would make fair guidelines for preventive services, and 38.2% believed that the government uses guidelines to ration health care. Most of the respondents endorsed the notion that research/scientific evidence and expert medical opinion are important for the creation of guidelines and that clinicians should follow guidelines based on evidence. But when presented with patient vignettes in which a physician made a guideline-based recommendation against a cancer-screening test, less than 10% believed that this recommendation alone, without further dialogue and/or the patient's own research, was sufficient to make such a decision. CONCLUSIONS: Given these demonstrated low levels of knowledge and mistrust regarding guidelines, coupled with a strong preference for shared decision making, better consumer education and decision supports for evidence-based guidelines for clinical preventive services are greatly needed.

The Role of Physician Recommendations and Public Policy in Human Papillomavirus Vaccinations.

BACKGROUND: Immunization rates for human papillomavirus (HPV) infections remain low among teenagers despite strong evidence of the effectiveness of vaccines. Physician recommendations of the vaccine are far from universal. Several states have enacted policies that mandate HPV vaccination or distribute educational materials. OBJECTIVES: To provide policy makers, physicians, and researchers information on the relative importance of physician recommendations and early state-level policies to promote HPV vaccinations among targeted age groups. METHODS: We first use probit models to determine the strongest correlates of immunization in a nationally representative US sample of teenagers. We then use instrumental variable probit models to determine the direct role that physician recommendations play in vaccination using plausibly exogenous physician encounters that are likely not the result of more health-conscious parents seeking out information on the vaccine. RESULTS: We show that children in the targeted age range who are more likely to encounter physicians for reasons other than seeking out the vaccine, such as through mandatory wellness exams or previous asthma diagnoses, are significantly more likely to get the vaccine. There is no consistent evidence that the state policies we analyze have been effective. CONCLUSION: Encouraging recommendations by physicians may be the most effective path toward increasing HPV vaccination. State-level mandates and policies are yet to exhibit effectiveness.