Proteomic and serological markers for diagnosing cardia gastric cancer and precursor lesions in a Chinese population.

Cardia gastric cancer (CGC) is prevalent in East Asia, and noninvasive, cost-effective screening methods are needed. This study investigated the diagnostic value of serum pepsinogen (PG), gastrin-17 (G-17), Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) antibodies, and proteomic profiling for CGC and precancerous lesions. We conducted a case-control study involving biopsy-confirmed patients with CGC (n = 60), low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (CLGD, n = 60), high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (CHGD, n = 64), and healthy controls (n = 120) matched for age and sex from high-incidence areas in China. Serological markers including PGI, PGII, G-17, and H. pylori were measured using ELISA and Western blot, while plasma protein markers were assessed using Olink® technology. The VSOLassoBag algorithm and nine machine learning (ML) algorithms were employed to identify crucial features and construct predictive models. Various evaluation metrics, including the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC), were utilized to compare predictive performance. Elevated PGII levels, decreased PGR, and H. pylori infection were significantly associated with an increased risk of CGC and precancerous lesions (P for trend < 0.05). The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model performed best in discriminative ability among the 9 ML models. Following feature reduction based on predictive performance, a final explainable XGBoost model was developed, incorporating five protein biomarkers (CDHR2, ICAM4, PTPRM, CDC27, and FLT1). This model exhibited excellent performance in distinguishing individuals with CGC and precancerous lesions from healthy controls (AUC = 0.931 for CGC, 0.867 for CHGD, and 0.763 for CLGD), surpassing the traditional serological marker-based model. This study underscores the diagnostic potential of serological markers and proteomic profiling in the detection of CGC. Further validation and exploration of combined biomarker approaches are warranted to enhance early diagnosis and improve outcomes in high-risk populations.

Visceral to subcutaneous fat area ratio predicts early postoperative small bowel obstruction after total gastrectomy for cardia cancer.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the relationship between the visceral to subcutaneous fat area ratio (V/S ratio) and incidence of early postoperative small bowel obstruction (EPSBO) following total gastrectomy for cardia cancer. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis among patients with cardia cancer who underwent elective total gastrectomy with esophagojejunostomy Roux-en-Y anastomosis at Nanjing Yimin Hospital between November 2019 and April 2024. Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors were meticulously monitored. The V/S ratio was calculated using computed tomography scans at the umbilical level with Slice-O-Matic software (Tomovision, Montreal, Canada). Statistical analyses included logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: Among 175 patients, 27 (15.4%) developed EPSBO. The V/S ratio was significantly higher in the EPSBO group (1.76 ± 1.05 vs. 1.01 ± 0.54). Logistic regression identified the V/S ratio as a significant predictor of EPSBO (odds ratio [OR] = 1.612, 95% [CI]: 1.102-1.605). ROC curve analysis demonstrated high sensitivity (92%) and specificity (100%) for the V/S ratio in predicting EPSBO, with a 0.83 AUC. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicated a higher V/S ratio was a significant predictor of EPSBO following total gastrectomy for cardia cancer. Preoperative assessment of the V/S ratio can inform risk stratification and guide targeted interventions to improve postoperative outcomes.

Successful modified CLEAN-NET with semicircular seromuscular layer incision for a gastric GIST near the cardia: a case report and video demonstration.

BACKGROUND: The combination of laparoscopic and endoscopic approaches to neoplasia with a non-exposure technique (CLEAN-NET) is a laparoscopic and endoscopic cooperative surgery (LECS). It combines laparoscopic gastric resection and endoscopic techniques for local resection of gastric tumors, such as gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST), with minimal surgical margins. A conventional CLEAN-NET surgical procedure is complex, requiring careful techniques to preserve the cardia, particularly in case of nearby lesions. We describe the case of a patient who underwent a modified CLEAN-NET approach with a semi-circular seromuscular layer incision surrounding the base of the tumor, different from a circular shape seromuscular layer in the conventional CLEAN-NET: around the tumor to preserve mucosal continuity, which acts as a barrier to avoid intraoperative tumor dissemination. CASE PRESENTATION: A 43-year-old woman was referred to our hospital because of a gastric submucosal tumor near the cardia, detected on medical examination. The patient was diagnosed with gastric GIST based on the results of endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration. Modified CLEAN-NET was performed with a semicircular incision of the seromuscular layer on the opposite side of the cardia, making the surgical procedure simple and minimizing partial resection of the gastric wall, including the tumor, while preserving the cardia. The operative time was 147 min, preoperative blood loss volume was 3 mL, and postoperative hospital stay was 9 days. The resected specimen revealed a minimal resection of the gastric wall, including the tumor. The cardia and gastric nerves were preserved, and the postoperative food intake was good. CONCLUSIONS: The modified CLEAN-NET with semicircular seromuscular layer dissection is a simple and reliable surgical procedure for GIST near the cardia.

Shifts in Serum Bile Acid Profiles Associated With Barrett's Esophagus and Stages of Progression to Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: Reflux bile acids are believed to promote esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), but the role of systemic bile acids is unknown. This study aimed to assess associations between systemic bile acids and stages of Barrett's esophagus (BE) progression. METHODS: Subjects with and without BE were enrolled in this multicenter cross-sectional study. Targeted serum bile acid profiling was performed, and a subset of subjects completed a validated food frequency questionnaire. RNA sequencing was performed on BE or gastric cardia tissue to assess bile acid associations with gene expression. RESULTS: A total of 141 subjects were enrolled with serum bile acids profiled (49 non-BE; 92 BE: 44 no dysplasia, 25 indefinite/low grade dysplasia, 23 high-grade dysplasia/EAC). Lower Healthy Eating Index score, older age, higher body mass index, and no proton pump inhibitor use were associated with increased levels of multiple bile acids. Global bile acid pools were distinct between non-BE and stages of BE neoplasia ( P = 0.004). Increasing cholic acid was associated with high-grade dysplasia/EAC compared with non-BE, even after adjusting for EAC risk factors (adjusted odds ratio 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.11-3.71) as was the combination of unconjugated primary bile acids (adjusted odds ratio 1.81, 95% confidence interval 1.04-3.13). High cholic acid levels were associated with tissue gene expression changes including increased DNA replication and reduced lymphocyte differentiation genes. DISCUSSION: Alterations in serum bile acids are independently associated with advanced neoplasia in BE and may contribute to neoplastic progression. Future studies should explore associated gut microbiome changes, proneoplastic effects of bile acids, and whether these bile acids, particularly cholic acid, represent potential biomarkers or viable therapeutic targets for advanced neoplasia in BE.

Irregular Z-Line: To Biopsy or Not to Biopsy?

The z-line refers to the squamocolumnar junction which marks the transition between the normal stratified squamous epithelium of the distal esophagus and the columnar epithelium of the gastric cardia. An "irregular" z-line refers to an irregular appearing squamocolumnar junction characterized by the presence of columnar mucosa less than 1 cm in length that extends above the gastroesophageal junction. In contrast, Barrett's esophagus is diagnosed when columnar mucosa of at least 1 cm is seen in the distal esophagus extending above the gastroesophageal junction with biopsies demonstrating specialized intestinal metaplasia. Current guidelines recommend against taking routine biopsies from a normal or irregular z-line in the absence of visible abnormalities and advise against endoscopic surveillance in this patient population, in large part due to multiple studies demonstrating lack of progression to advanced neoplasia such as high-grade dysplasia or esophageal adenocarcinoma in patients with an irregular z-line. Despite these recommendations, a sizable number of patients without Barrett's esophagus undergo biopsies from the z-line and are subsequently recommended to have surveillance endoscopies. Furthermore, patients with an irregular z-line are often mislabelled as Barrett's esophagus resulting in significant downstream consequences including higher healthcare costs and reduced health-related quality of life. In this review, we highlight the importance of landmark identification of the distal esophagus and gastroesophageal junction at the time of endoscopy, share recommendations from current guidelines related to the z-line, examine rates of neoplastic progression in those with an irregular z-line, discuss consequences of routinely biopsying an irregular z-line, and highlight strategies on how to approach an irregular z-line if seen on endoscopy. A careful, high-quality endoscopic examination can help to identify visible abnormalities at the z-line, which, if present, should be targeted for biopsies to rule out dysplasia and neoplasia.

Long-term survival outcomes of endoscopic therapy vs. surgical resection in patients with cardia gastrointestinal stromal tumor.

The ideal surgical approach for treating cardia gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is not clearly established. This study aimed to assess the long-term survival results among patients who received endoscopic therapy (ET) or surgical resection (SR) for cardia GIST. Cardia GIST patients from 2000 to 2019 were selected from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end result (SEER) database. Multiple imputation (MI) was applied to handle missing data, and propensity score matching (PSM) was carried out to mitigate selection bias during comparisons. Demographic and clinical characteristics' effects on overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were assessed using Kaplan-Meier analyses and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. A total of 330 patients with cardia GIST were enrolled, including 47 (14.2%) patients with ET and 283 (85.8%) patients with SR. The 5-year OS and CSS rates in the ET and SR groups were comparable [before PSM, (OS) (76.1% vs. 81.2%, P = 0.722), (CSS) (95.0% vs. 89.3%, P = 0.186); after PSM, (OS) (75.4% vs. 85.4%, P = 0.540), (CSS) (94.9% vs. 92.0%, P = 0.099)]. Moreover, there was no significant difference between ET and SR in terms of long-term OS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.735, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.422-1.282) and CSS (HR 1.560, 95% CI 0.543-4.481). Our study found no significant disparity in long-term survival outcomes between ET and SR in cardia GIST patients, implying that ET could be a valid surgical strategy for treating cardia GIST.

Racial, Ethnic, and Sex Differences in Incidence-Based Mortality of Aggregate Upper Gastrointestinal Cancers.

INTRODUCTION: Current strategies for upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancer screening primarily target cancer-specific risk, with the strongest focus on esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). However, all UGI cancers are amendable to screening and early detection with an upper endoscopic examination. This study assesses and explores incidence-based mortality (IBM) for cumulative UGI cancers, aiming to identify race-based or sex-based disparities. METHODS: We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Research data to analyze patients diagnosed with EAC, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, cardia gastric cancer, noncardia gastric cancer, or colorectal adenocarcinoma from 2000 to 2019. Age-adjusted IBM was calculated as a rate per 100,000 population and stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. We also compared UGI cancer IBM with that of colorectal cancer, a cancer with established population-wide endoscopic screening guidelines. RESULTS: Cumulative IBM for UGI cancers was 8.40 (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.34-8.46). The highest cancer-specific IBM rates were for EAC (2.26, 95% CI 2.23-2.29), followed by noncardia gastric cancer (2.07, 95% CI 2.04-2.10), cardia gastric cancer (1.60, 95% CI 1.57-1.62), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (1.21, 95% CI 1.19-1.23), and miscellaneous UGI cancer (1.27, 95% CI 1.13-1.40). UGI cancer IBM was highest among Black men (16.43, 95% CI 15.97-16.89), American Indian/Alaska Native men (15.23, 95% CI 13.75-16.82), and Hispanic men (13.76, 95% CI 13.42-14.11). These rates are significantly greater than among White men (12.81, 95% CI 12.68-12.95). DISCUSSION: UGI cancers impose a significantly higher mortality burden on non-White population subgroups that are not currently targeted by any systematic screening approach.

Risk Factors of Lymph Node Metastasis and Prognosis in 891 Chinese Patients With Submucosal Early Gastric Carcinoma, Emphasizing Differences Between Gastric Cardiac and Noncardiac Origins.

Differences in risk factors (RF) of lymph node metastasis (LNM) and prognosis between submucosal early gastric cardiac (SEGCC) and noncardiac (SEGNCC) carcinomas remain unclear. In this study, we investigated and compared RF of LNM and prognosis in 891 patients with radical gastrectomy for SEGCC (n=217) or SEGNCC (n=674). Compared with SEGNCC, SEGCC displayed significantly higher proportion of elderly patients (70 y or above), the elevated macroscopic type, well/moderately differentiated tubular and low-grade papillary adenocarcinomas, as well as low-grade tumor budding, but lower prevalence of the depressed macroscopic type, poorly differentiated tubular adenocarcinoma, mixed adenocarcinoma, poorly cohesive carcinoma, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), perineural invasion, and high-grade tumor budding. By univariate analysis, significant RF for LNM of the cohort included female sex, poor differentiation, SM2 invasion, LVI, intermediate-grade and high-grade tumor budding, whereas tumor size, histology type, and perineural invasion were the significant RF for LNM in SEGNCC. By multivariate analysis, significant independent RF for LNM included female sex and LVI in SEGCC but were female sex, mixed adenocarcinoma, LVI, and high-grade tumor budding in SEGNCC. The 5-year overall survival was significantly worse in SEGCC than in SEGNCC for patients with LNM, but not for those without. For overall survival, LNM was the only significant independent RF in SEGCC, whereas age 70 years or above and LNM were independent RF in SEGNCC. The results of our study provided the clinicopathologic evidence for individualized clinical management strategies for these 2 groups of patients and suggested different pathogenesis mechanisms between SEGCC and SEGNCC.

Feasibility and efficacy of endoscopy with blue laser imaging for the detection and diagnosis of cardia polyps: A single-center randomized controlled study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the detection rate and diagnostic accuracy of cardia polyps using endoscopy with blue laser imaging (BLI) and white-light imaging (WLI). METHODS: Patients were randomly divided into the BLI group and WLI group according to the endoscopic procedures. BLI followed by WLI was conducted in the BLI group, whereas WLI followed by BLI examination was conducted in the WLI group. The number, size, microstructure, and microvascular patterns of cardia polyps detected were recorded. Biopsy of the polyps was then performed. RESULTS: The detection rate of cardia polyps in the BLI group was higher than that in the WLI group (7.87% vs 4.22%, P = 0.018). The rate of overlooked lesions in the BLI group was lower than in the WLI group (0.64% vs 3.38%, P = 0.003). The diagnostic coincidence rate between magnifying BLI and histopathology was 88.16%. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for the diagnosis of neoplastic lesions by magnifying endoscopy with BLI were 90.91%, 87.69%, 55.56%, and 98.28%, respectively. The most remarkable patterns for predicting inflammatory polyps were the prolonged and fine network patterns (sensitivity 71.43%, specificity 93.75%). Small round combined with honeycomb patterns were the most common among fundic gland polyps (sensitivity 80.00%, specificity 98.48%). Neoplastic lesions presented as villous or ridge-like combined with core vascular or unclear pattern for both microvascular and microstructure patterns. CONCLUSION: BLI is more effective than WLI in the detection and diagnosis of cardia polyps, and magnifying endoscopy with BLI may help diagnose such lesions.

Novel metabolic biomarker for early detection and diagnosis to the patients with gastric cardia adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) is classified as Siewert type II adenocarcinoma at the esophagogastric junction in Western countries. The majority of GCA patients do not exhibit early warning symptoms, leading to over 90% of diagnoses at an advanced stage, resulting in a grim prognosis, with less than a 20% 5-year survival rate. METHOD: Metabolic features of 276 GCA and 588 healthy controls were characterized through a widely-targeted metabolomics by UPLC-MS/MS analysis. This study encompasses a joint pathway analysis utilizing identified metabolites, survival analysis in both early and advanced stages, as well as high and negative and low expression of HER2 immunohistochemistry staining. Machine learning techniques and Cox regression models were employed to construct a diagnostic panel. RESULTS: A total of 25 differential metabolites were consistently identified in both discovery and validation sets based on criteria of p < 0.05, (VIP) ≥ 1, and FC ≥ 2 or FC ≤ 0.5. Early-stage GCA patients exhibited a more favorable prognosis compared to those in advanced stages. HER2 overexpression was associated with a more positive outcome compared to the negative and low expression groups. Metabolite panel demonstrated a robust diagnostic performance with AUC of 0.869 in discovery set and 0.900 in validation set. CONCLUSIONS: A total of 25 common and stable differential metabolites may hold promise as liquid non-invasive indicators for GCA diagnosis. HER2 may function as a tumor suppressor gene in GCA, as its overexpression is associated with improved survival. The downregulation of bile acid metabolism in GCA may offer valuable theoretical insights and innovative approaches for precision-targeted treatments in GCA patients.

Analysis of endoscopic and pathological features of 6961 cases of gastric cancer.

Gastric cancer (GC) stage and tissue differentiation affect treatment efficacy and prognosis, highlighting the importance of understanding the risk factors that affect these parameters. Therefore, this study analyzed risk factors affecting the GC stage and differentiation and the relationships between the cancer site and the sex and age of the patient. We collected clinical data from 6961 patients with GC, including sex, age, endoscopic lesion location, and pathological differentiation. Patients were grouped based on GC stage (early or advanced), differentiation (well or poorly differentiated), and lesion site (upper stomach [cardia and fundus], middle stomach [gastric body], and lower stomach [gastric antrum]). Differences in sex, age, location, stage, and degree of differentiation were assessed based on these groupings. Univariate analysis revealed that the disease location and differentiation significantly differed based on the GC stage (P < 0.05), whereas sex, age, site, and stage significantly differed based on GC differentiation (P < 0.05). A multivariate analysis confirmed these factors as independent risk factors affecting GC. Moreover, lesion sites significantly differed between sexes (P < 0.05) and among age groups (P < 0.05). Although the effects of family history, lifestyle, and Helicobacter pylori infection status of the patients were not considered, this single-center retrospective study established independent risk factors for GC.Trial registration ChiCTR2200061989.

Genome-wide DNA methylation and transcriptomic patterns of precancerous gastric cardia lesions.

BACKGROUND: Intestinal metaplasia (IM) and intraepithelial neoplasia (IEN) are considered precursors of gastric cardia cancer (GCC). Here, we investigated the histopathologic and molecular profiles of precancerous gastric cardia lesions (PGCLs) and biomarkers for risk stratification of gastric cardia IM. METHODS: We conducted a hospital-based evaluation (n = 4578) for PGCL profiles in high-incidence and non-high-incidence regions for GCC in China. We next performed 850K methylation arrays (n = 42) and RNA-seq (n = 44) in tissues with PGCLs. We then examined the protein expression of candidate biomarker using immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: Of the 4578 participants, 791 were diagnosed with PGCLs (600 IM, 62 IM with IEN, and 129 IEN). We found that individuals from high-incidence regions (26.7%) were more likely to develop PGCLs than those from non-high-incidence areas (13.5%). DNA methylation and gene expression alterations, indicated by differentially methylated probes (DMPs) and differentially expressed genes (DEGs), exhibited a progressive increase from type I IM (DMP = 210, DEG = 24), type II IM (DMP = 3402, DEG = 129), to type III IM (DMP = 3735, DEG = 328), peaking in IEN (DMP = 47 373, DEG = 2278). Three DEGs with aberrant promoter methylation were identified, shared exclusively by type III IM and IEN. Of these DEGs, we found that OLFM4 expression appears in IMs and increases remarkably in IENs (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: We highlight that type III IM and IEN share similar epigenetic and transcriptional features in gastric cardia and propose biomarkers with potential utility in risk prediction.

Fibrin sealant for closure of mucosal penetration at the oesophagus or cardia during submucosal tunnelling endoscopic resection for gastrointestinal submucosal tumours.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIM: To assess the efficacy and safety of a fibrin sealant for the prevention of leak resulting from mucosal penetration at the esophagus or cardia during a STER procedure to remove gastrointestinal submucosal tumors (SMTs). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between April 2014 and October 2022, a total of 290 patients with oesophageal or cardiac SMTs underwent STER at our centre. We retrospectively identified patients with oesophageal or cardia SMTs who underwent STER and experienced mucosal penetration of the cardia or oesophagus during the procedure. A total of 31 mucosal penetrations in 30 procedures were included. Of the 31 mucosal penetrations, 12 occurred in the cardia, and the other 19 occurred in the oesophagus. All 31 sites received the fibrin sealant to close the mucosal penetration. Clinical characteristics, procedure-related parameters, detailed data of the mucosal penetrations, and treatment outcomes using the fibrin sealant were reviewed for all 30 patients to assess the efficacy and safety of the fibrin sealant for closure of mucosal penetration at the cardia or oesophagus. RESULTS: For the 31 mucosal penetrations, the mean size was 0.08 ± 0.06 cm2 (range 0.01-0.25 cm2). Mucosal closure using the fibrin sealant was performed successfully in all 31 mucosal penetrations. Of the 31 mucosal penetrations, clips were used in 13 cases. All 30 patients were discharged after a median of 7 days (range 4-20 day) postoperatively. During a mean 62 months (range 6-107 months) follow-up, all 31 mucosal penetrations successfully healed without the occurrence of infection, ulcer, oesophagitis, chest infection or abdominal infection. CONCLUSION: For the closure of mucosal penetration during STER at the cardia or oesophagus, a fibrin sealant is both safe and efficacious. It is necessary to conduct more research on the viability, effectiveness, and safety of using a fibrin sealant to close wider mucosal penetrations.

[Application value of CT examination of lymph node short diameter in evaluating cardia-left gastric lymph node metastasis in thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma].

Objective: To investigate the application value of computed tomography (CT) examination of lymph node short diameter in evaluating cardia-left gastric lymph node metastasis in thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Methods: A total of 477 patients with primary thoracic ESCC who underwent surgical treatment in the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2013 to December 2017 were collected. All of them underwent McKeown esophagectomy plus complete two-field or three-field lymph node dissection. Picture archiving and communication system were used to measure the largest cardia-left gastric lymph node short diameter in preoperative CT images. The postoperative pathological diagnosis results of cardia-left gastric lymph node were used as the gold standard. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the efficacy of CT lymph node short diameter in detecting the metastasis of cardia-left gastric lymph node in thoracic ESCC, and determine the optimal cut-off value. Results: The median short diameter of the largest cardia-left gastric lymph node was 4.1 mm in 477 patients, and the largest cardia-left gastric lymph node short diameter was less than 3 mm in 155 cases (32.5%). Sixty-eight patients had cardia-left gastric lymph node metastases, of which 38 had paracardial node metastases and 41 had left gastric node metastases. The lymph node ratios of paracardial node and left gastric node were 4.0% (60/1 511) and 3.3% (62/1 887), respectively. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of CT lymph node short diameter for evaluating cardia-left gastric lymph node metastasis was 0.941 (95% CI: 0.904-0.977; P<0.05). The optimal cut-off value of CT examination of the cardia-left gastric lymph node short diameter was 6 mm, and the corresponding sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 85.3%, 91.7%, and 90.8%, respectively. Conclusion: CT examination of lymph node short diameter can be a good evaluation of cardia-left gastric lymph node metastasis in thoracic ESCC, and the optimal cut-off value is 6 mm.

Predicting Incident Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagus or Gastric Cardia Using Machine Learning of Electronic Health Records.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Tools that can automatically predict incident esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) using electronic health records to guide screening decisions are needed. METHODS: The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) Corporate Data Warehouse was accessed to identify Veterans with 1 or more encounters between 2005 and 2018. Patients diagnosed with EAC (n = 8430) or GCA (n = 2965) were identified in the VHA Central Cancer Registry and compared with 10,256,887 controls. Predictors included demographic characteristics, prescriptions, laboratory results, and diagnoses between 1 and 5 years before the index date. The Kettles Esophageal and Cardia Adenocarcinoma predictioN (K-ECAN) tool was developed and internally validated using simple random sampling imputation and extreme gradient boosting, a machine learning method. Training was performed in 50% of the data, preliminary validation in 25% of the data, and final testing in 25% of the data. RESULTS: K-ECAN was well-calibrated and had better discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AuROC], 0.77) than previously validated models, such as the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (AuROC, 0.68) and Kunzmann model (AuROC, 0.64), or published guidelines. Using only data from between 3 and 5 years before index diminished its accuracy slightly (AuROC, 0.75). Undersampling men to simulate a non-VHA population, AUCs of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study and Kunzmann model improved, but K-ECAN was still the most accurate (AuROC, 0.85). Although gastroesophageal reflux disease was strongly associated with EAC, it contributed only a small proportion of gain in information for prediction. CONCLUSIONS: K-ECAN is a novel, internally validated tool predicting incident EAC and GCA using electronic health records data. Further work is needed to validate K-ECAN outside VHA and to assess how best to implement it within electronic health records.