Association of dietary selenium intake and all-cause mortality of Parkinson's disease and its interaction with blood cadmium level: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a slowly progressive neurodegenerating disease that may eventually lead to disabling condition and pose a threat to the health of aging populations. This study aimed to explore the association of two potential risk factors, selenium and cadmium, with the prognosis of Parkinson's disease as well as their interaction effect. METHODS: Data were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2006 to 2015-2016 and National Death Index (NDI). Participants were classified as Parkinson's patients by self-reported anti-Parkinson medications usage. Cox regression models and restricted cubic spline models were applied to evaluate the association between PD mortality and selenium intake level as well as blood cadmium level. Subgroup analysis was also conducted to explore the interaction between them. RESULTS: A total of 184 individuals were included. In full adjusted cox regression model (adjusted for age, gender, race, hypertension, pesticide exposure, smoking status and caffeine intake), compared with participants with low selenium intake, those with normal selenium intake level were significantly associated with less risk of death (95%CI: 0.18-0.76, P = 0.005) while no significant association was found between low selenium intake group and high selenium group (95%CI: 0.16-1.20, P = 0.112). Restricted cubic spline model indicated a nonlinear relationship between selenium intake and PD mortality (P for nonlinearity = 0.050). The association between PD mortality and blood cadmium level was not significant (95%CI: 0.19-5.57, P = 0.112). However, the interaction term of selenium intake and blood cadmium showed significance in the cox model (P for interaction = 0.048). Subgroup analysis showed that the significant protective effect of selenium intake existed in populations with high blood cadmium but not in populations with low blood cadmium. CONCLUSION: Moderate increase of selenium intake had a protective effect on PD mortality especially in high blood cadmium populations.

Deaths Among Ambulance Patients Released from the Emergency Department Within the First 24 Hours With Nonspecific Diagnoses - Expected or Not?

BACKGROUND: Emergency patients are frequently assigned nonspecific diagnoses. Nonspecific diagnoses describe observations or symptoms and are found in chapters R and Z of the International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition (ICD-10). Patients with such diagnoses have relatively low mortality, but due to patient volume, the absolute number of deaths is substantial. However, information on cause of short-term mortality is limited. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether death could be expected for ambulance patients brought to the emergency department (ED) after a 1-1-2 call, released with a nonspecific ICD-10 diagnosis within 24 h, and who subsequently died within 30 days. METHODS: Retrospective medical record review of adult 1-1-2 emergency ambulance patients brought to an ED in the North Denmark Region during 2017-2021. Patients were divided into three categories: unexpected death, expected death (terminal illness), and miscellaneous. Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was assessed. RESULTS: We included 492 patients. Mortality was distributed as follows: Unexpected death 59.2% (n = 291), expected death (terminal illness) 25.8% (n = 127), and miscellaneous 15.0% (n = 74). Patients who died unexpectedly were old (median age of 82 years) and had CCI 1-2 (58.1%); 43.0% used at least five daily prescription drugs, and they were severely acutely ill upon arrival (24.7% with red triage, 60.1% died within 24 h). CONCLUSIONS: More than half of ambulance patients released within 24 h from the ED with nonspecific diagnoses, and who subsequently died within 30 days, died unexpectedly. One-fourth died from a pre-existing terminal illness. Patients dying unexpectedly were old, treated with polypharmacy, and often life-threateningly sick at arrival.

Mortality Benefits of Cardiac Rehabilitation in Coronary Artery Disease Are Mediated by Comprehensive Risk Factor Modification: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) is a multicomponent intervention to reduce adverse outcomes from coronary artery disease, but its mechanisms are not fully understood. The aims of this study were to examine the impact of CR on survival and cardiovascular risk factors, and to determine potential mediators between CR attendance and reduced mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: A retrospective mediation analysis was conducted among 11 196 patients referred to a 12-week CR program following an acute coronary syndrome event between 2009 and 2019. A panel of cardiovascular risk factors was assessed at a CR intake visit and repeated on CR completion. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality were ascertained via health care administrative data sets at mean 4.2-year follow-up (SD, 2.81 years). CR completion was associated with reduced all-cause (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.67 [95% CI, 0.54-0.83]) and cardiovascular (adjusted HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.40-0.81]) mortality, as well as improved cardiorespiratory fitness, lipid profile, body composition, psychological distress, and smoking rates (P<0.001). CR attendance had an indirect effect on all-cause mortality via improved cardiorespiratory fitness (ab=-0.006 [95% CI, -0.008 to -0.003]) and via low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (ab=-0.002 [95% CI, -0.003 to -0.0003]) and had an indirect effect on cardiovascular mortality via cardiorespiratory fitness (ab=-0.007 [95% CI, -0.012 to -0.003]). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiorespiratory fitness and lipid control partly explain the mortality benefits of CR and represent important secondary prevention targets.

Age-specific and cause-specific mortality contributions to the socioeconomic gap in life expectancy in Germany, 2003-21: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Earlier death among people in socioeconomically deprived circumstances has been found internationally and for various causes of death, resulting in a considerable life-expectancy gap between socioeconomic groups. We examined how age-specific and cause-specific mortality contributions to the socioeconomic gap in life expectancy have changed at the area level in Germany over time. METHODS: In this ecological study, official German population and cause-of-death statistics provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany for the period Jan 1, 2003, to Dec 31, 2021, were linked to district-level data of the German Index of Socioeconomic Deprivation. Life-table and decomposition methods were applied to calculate life expectancy by area-level deprivation quintile and decompose the life-expectancy gap between the most and least deprived quintiles into age-specific and cause-specific mortality contributions. FINDINGS: Over the study period, population numbers varied between 80 million and 83 million people per year, with the number of deaths ranging from 818 000 to 1 024 000, covering the entire German population. Between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2019, the gap in life expectancy between the most and least deprived quintiles of districts increased by 0·7 years among females (from 1·1 to 1·8 years) and by 0·1 years among males (from 3·0 to 3·1 years). Thereafter, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the gap increased more rapidly to 2·2 years in females and 3·5 years in males in 2021. Between 2003 and 2021, the causes of death that contributed the most to the life-expectancy gap were cardiovascular diseases and cancer, with declining contributions of cardiovascular disease deaths among those aged 70 years and older and increasing contributions of cancer deaths among those aged 40-74 years over this period. COVID-19 mortality among individuals aged 45 years and older was the strongest contributor to the increase in life-expectancy gap after 2019. INTERPRETATION: To reduce the socioeconomic gap in life expectancy, effective efforts are needed to prevent early deaths from cardiovascular disease and cancer in socioeconomically deprived populations, with cancer prevention and control becoming an increasingly important field of action in this respect. FUNDING: German Cancer Aid and European Research Council.

Association of platelet distribution width with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in US adults.

BACKGROUND: Platelet distribution width (PDW) indicates heterogeneity in circulating platelet sizes. Studies reporting PDW association with mortality were limited by small sample sizes. Therefore, we examined the relationship between PDW and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a large representative cohort. METHODS: The NHANES III data were linked to mortality files to examine the association between PDW and mortality. We excluded participants <18 years old and had a history of myocardial infarction. Since the hazards violated the proportionality assumption, we used piece-wise spline with 5-year time intervals in Cox models without and with adjustment for age, gender, race, smoking history, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, eGFR and total cholesterol. RESULTS: Of 15,688 participants, 53.2% were females, 36.2% had a history of hypertension, and 6368(40.6%) died during follow-up (range 0 to 31 years). The mean (SD) age of the participants was 47(20) years, platelet count was 275.0(71.7) 109/L, and PDW 16.5(0.5). In multivariable analyses, PDW was associated with all-cause mortality at 0-5 years (HR = 1.44; 95%CI = 1.21, 1.72; P < 0.001) and at 5-10 years (HR = 1.23; 95%CI =1.03, 1.46; P = 0.02). Similarly, PDW association was significant for the first 0-5 years in cardiovascular mortality (HR = 1.58, 95%CI = 1.10, 2.25; P = 0.013) and for cancer mortality (HR = 1.48 (1.15, 95%CI = 1.15, 1.91, P = 0.003). For other-cause mortality, PDW remained significantly associated for 0-5 years (HR = 1.35, 95%CI =1.05, 1.74; P = 0.02) and for 5-10 years (HR = 1.38, 95%CI = 1.05, 1.83; P = 0.023). CONCLUSIONS: PDW is an independent, but time-dependent, predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular, cancer and other-cause mortality up to 5 years. The mechanisms underlying this association need further study.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

BACKGROUND: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Predictors of heart failure readmission and all-cause mortality in patients with acute heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Predischarge risk stratification of patients with acute heart failure (AHF) could facilitate tailored treatment and follow-up, however, simple scores to predict short-term risk for HF readmission or death are lacking. METHODS: We sought to develop a congestion-focused risk score using data from a prospective, two-center observational study in adults hospitalized for AHF. Laboratory data were collected on admission. Patients underwent physical examination, 4-zone, and in a subset 8-zone, lung ultrasound (LUS), and echocardiography at baseline. A second LUS was performed before discharge in a subset of patients. The primary endpoint was the composite of HF hospitalization or all-cause death. RESULTS: Among 350 patients (median age 75 years, 43% women), 88 participants (25%) were hospitalized or died within 90 days after discharge. A stepwise Cox regression model selected four significant independent predictors of the composite outcome, and each was assigned points proportional to its regression coefficient: NT-proBNP ≥2000 pg/mL (admission) (3 points), systolic blood pressure < 120 mmHg (baseline) (2 points), left atrial volume index ≥60 mL/m2 (baseline) (1 point) and ≥ 9 B-lines on predischarge 4-zone LUS (3 points). This risk score provided adequate risk discrimination for the composite outcome (HR 1.48 per 1 point increase, 95% confidence interval: 1.32-1.67, p < 0.001, C-statistic: 0.70). In a subset of patients with 8-zone LUS data (n = 176), results were similar (C-statistic: 0.72). CONCLUSIONS: A four-variable risk score integrating clinical, laboratory and ultrasound data may provide a simple approach for risk discrimination for 90-day adverse outcomes in patients with AHF if validated in future investigations.

Trajectories of Kidney Function in Heart Failure Over a 15-Year Follow-Up: Clinical Profiling and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on the long-term trajectory of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in patients with chronic heart failure. OBJECTIVES: The authors evaluated eGFR dynamics using the 2009 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation and its prognostic significance in a real-world cohort over a 15-year follow-up. METHODS: A prospective observational registry of ambulatory heart failure outpatients was conducted, with regular eGFR assessments at baseline and on a 3-month schedule for ≤15 years. Urgent kidney function assessments were excluded. Locally weighted error sum of squares curves were plotted for predefined subgroups. Multivariable longitudinal Cox regression analyses were conducted to assess associations with all-cause and cardiovascular death. RESULTS: A total of 2,672 patients were enrolled consecutively between August 2001 and December 2021. The average age was 66.8 ± 12.6 years, and 69.8% were men. Among 40,970 creatinine measurements, 28,634 were used for eGFR analysis, averaging 10.7 ± 8.5 per patient. Over the study period, a significant decline in eGFR was observed in the entire cohort, with a slope of -1.70 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year (95% CI: -1.75 to -1.66 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year). Older patients, those with diabetes, a preserved ejection fraction, a higher baseline eGFR, elevated hospitalization rates, and those who died during follow-up experienced more pronounced decreases in the eGFR. Moreover, the decrease in kidney function correlated independently with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular death. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the sustained decline in eGFR over 15 years in patients with heart failure, with variations based on clinical characteristics, and emphasize the importance of regular eGFR monitoring in this population.

Regional variation in cause of death in patients with type 2 diabetes: Insights from EXSCEL.

AIMS: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a risk factor for cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality. However, global distribution of cause-specific deaths in T2D is poorly understood. We characterized cause-specific deaths by geographic region among individuals with T2D at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: The international EXSCEL trial included 14,752 participants with T2D (73% with established CVD). We identified the proportion of deaths over 5-year follow-up attributed to cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes, and associated risk factors. During median 3.2-year follow-up, 1,091 (7.4%) participants died. Adjudicated causes of death were 723 cardiovascular (66.3% of deaths), including 252 unknown, and 368 non-cardiovascular (33.7%). Most deaths occurred in North America (N = 356/9.6% across region) and Eastern Europe (N = 326/8.1%), with fewest in Asia/Pacific (N = 68/4.4%). The highest proportional cause-specific deaths by region were sudden cardiac in Asia/Pacific (23/34% of regional deaths) and North America (86/24%); unknown in Eastern Europe (90/28%) and Western Europe (39/21%); and non-malignant non-cardiovascular in Latin America (48/31%). Cox proportional hazards model for adjudicated causes of death showed prognostic risk factors (hazard ratio [95% CI]) for cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular deaths, respectively: heart failure 2.04 (1.72-2.42) and 1.86 (1.46-2.39); peripheral artery disease 1.83 (1.54-2.18) and 1.78 (1.40-2.26); and current smoking status 1.61 (1.29-2.01) and 1.77 (1.31-2.40). CONCLUSIONS: In a contemporary T2D trial population, with and without established CVD, leading causes of death varied by geographic region. Underlying mechanisms leading to variability in cause of death across geographic regions and its impact on clinical trial endpoints warrant future research.

Trends in all causes and cause specific mortality attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution in China from 1990 to 2019: A secondary data analysis study.

BACKGROUND: Particularly fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has become a significant public health concern in China due to its harmful effects on human health. This study aimed to examine the trends in all causes and cause specific morality burden attributable to PM2.5 pollution in China. METHODS: We extracted data on all causes and cause specific mortality data attributable to PM2.5 exposure for the period 1990-2019 in China from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and years of life lost (YLLs) due to PM2.5 exposure were calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program. Using Pearson's correlation, we estimated association between burden trends, urban green space area, and higher education proportions. RESULTS: During the period 1990-1999, there were increases in mortality rates for All causes (1.6%, 95% CI: 1.5% to 1.8%), Diabetes mellitus (5.2%, 95% CI: 4.9% to 5.5%), Encephalitis (3.1%, 95% CI: 2.6% to 3.5%), Ischemic heart disease (3.3%, 95% CI: 3% to 3.6%), and Tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer (5%, 95% CI: 4.7% to 5.2%). In the period 2010-2019, Diabetes mellitus still showed an increase in mortality rates, but at a lower rate with an AAPC of 1.2% (95% CI: 1% to 1.4%). Tracheal bronchus and lung cancer showed a smaller increase in this period, with an AAPC of 0.5% (95% CI: 0.3% to 0.6%). In terms of YLLs, the trends appear to be similar. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight increasing trends in disease burden attributable to PM2.5 in China, particularly for diabetes mellitus, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer.

Trends in mortality and causes of death among Chinese adolescents aged 10-19 years from 1990 to 2019.

Objective: Promoting adolescent health is essential to achieving the goals of the Healthy China 2030 (HC 2030) initiative. As socioeconomic conditions improve and medical practices and disease patterns evolve, adolescent mortality rates and causes of death vary considerably. This study provides up-to-date data on adolescent mortality and causes of death in China, highlighting key areas of focus for investment in adolescent health. Methods: Data regarding mortality and causes of death in Chinese adolescents aged 10-19 years were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study from 1990 to 2019. The data variables were examined according to year, sex, and age. The autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to predict non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality rates and rank changes in the leading causes of death until 2030. Results: The all-cause mortality rate (per 100,000 population) of Chinese adolescents aged 10-19 years steadily declined from 1990 (72.6/100,000) to 2019 (28.8). Male adolescents had a higher mortality (37.5/100,000 vs. 18.6 in 2019) and a slower decline rate (percent: -58.7 vs. -65.0) than female adolescents. Regarding age, compared with those aged 10-14 years, the mortality rate of adolescents aged 15-19 years had a higher mortality (35.9/100,000 vs. 21.2 in 2019) and a slower decrease rate (percent: -57.6 vs. -63.2). From 1990 to 2019, the rates of communicable, maternal, and nutritional diseases declined the most (percent: -80.0), while injury and NCDs mortality rates were relatively slow (percent: -50.0 and -60.0). In 2019, the five leading causes of death were road injuries (6.1/100,000), drowning (4.5), self-harm (1.9), leukemia (1.9), and congenital birth defects (1.3). Furthermore, NCDs' mortality rate decreased by -46.6% and -45.4% between 2015-2030 and 2016-2030, respectively. Conclusion: A notable decline was observed in all-cause mortality rates among Chinese adolescents aged 10-19 years. In addition, the mortality rates of NCDs are projected to meet the target from the Global Strategy for Women's, Children's, and Adolescents' Health (2016-2030) and HC2030 reduction indicators by 2030. However, it should be noted that injury is the leading cause of death, with sexual and age disparities remaining consistent.

Research Note: COVID-19 Is Not an Independent Cause of Death.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had overwhelming global impacts with deleterious social, economic, and health consequences. To assess the COVID-19 death toll, researchers have estimated declines in 2020 life expectancy at birth (e0). When data are available only for COVID-19 deaths, but not for deaths from other causes, the risks of dying from COVID-19 are typically assumed to be independent of those from other causes. In this research note, we explore the soundness of this assumption using data from the United States and Brazil, the countries with the largest number of reported COVID-19 deaths. We use three methods: one estimates the difference between 2019 and 2020 life tables and therefore does not require the assumption of independence, and the other two assume independence to simulate scenarios in which COVID-19 mortality is added to 2019 death rates or is eliminated from 2020 rates. Our results reveal that COVID-19 is not independent of other causes of death. The assumption of independence can lead to either an overestimate (Brazil) or an underestimate (United States) of the decline in e0, depending on how the number of other reported causes of death changed in 2020.

Análisis de causas de muerte intrahospitalarias mal definidas e imprecisas / Analysis of ill-defined and imprecise in-hospital causes of death

Introducción: la información sobre las causas de muerte es de gran importancia tanto para los países como para las instituciones sanitarias, en la medida en que contribuye a la evaluación y el seguimiento del estado de salud de la población y a la planificación de intervenciones sanitarias. El objetivo del estudio fue evaluar la proporción de causas de muerte mal definidas e imprecisas y su relación con el día de la semana y período lectivo de médicos residentes en el Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires (HIBA) durante 2020. Métodos: se realizó un estudio analítico de corte transversal a partir de certificados médicos de defunción de pacientes fallecidos en el ámbito intrahospitalario, evaluando las causas de muerte mal definidas (términos médicos que no aportan información desde el punto de vista clínico y epidemiológico) y las imprecisas (no resultan lo suficientemente específicas como para identificar entidades nosológicas que permitan establecer acciones de prevención y control). Resultados: se analizaron 1030 certificados de defunción, con una proporción de certificados con causa básica de muerte mal definida del 2,3% (n = 24), mientras que en el 17,4% (n = 180) fue imprecisa. No se hallaron diferencias entre la proporción de causas básicas mal definidas y las imprecisas según el día de la semana o período lectivo. Al extender el análisis a todas las causas (básicas, mediatas e inmediatas), la proporción de causas mal definidas fue del 1,6% (n = 40) y la de imprecisas del 51% (n = 1212). Conclusiones: los resultados definen al HIBA como un centro de mediana calidad estadística en el registro de causas de muerte. Se concluye que es necesario mejorarla, para lo que resulta de interés la creación de un plan de capacitación y entrenamiento de los médicos en el grado y el posgrado. (AU)

Introduction: information on causes of death is of great importance both for countries and for health institutions, as it contributes to the evaluation and monitoring of the health status of the population and to the planning of health interventions. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the proportion of ill-defined and imprecise causes of death and its relationship with the day of the week and academic calendar during 2020 at the Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires. Methods: a cross-sectional study was carried out from data recorded in the death certificates of patients who died in the intrahospital setting, evaluating ill-defined causes of death (medical terms that do not provide clinical or epidemiological information) and imprecise ones (not specific enough to identify nosological entities susceptible to prevention or control). Results: 1030 death certificates were analyzed. The proportion of certificates with ill-defined underlying causes of death was 2.3% (n=24), while 17.4% (n=180) was imprecise. No significant differences were found between the ill-defined and imprecise underlying causes of death and the day of the week and academic calendar. When extending the analysis to all causes (underlying, intermediate, and immediate) the percentage of ill-defined causes was 1.6% (n=40) and 51% (n=1212) was imprecise. Conclusions: results define our hospital as of medium statistical quality on medical death certification. It is concluded that it is necessary to improve the quality of the registry, for which the creation of a training plan for undergraduate and graduate physicians is of interest. (AU)

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2021 Adult Cardiac Surgery Risk Models for Multiple Valve Operations.

BACKGROUND: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Quality Measurement Task Force has developed risk models and composite performance measures for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR), isolated mitral valve replacement or repair (MVRR), AVR+CABG, and MVRR+CABG. To further enhance its portfolio of risk-adjusted performance metrics, STS has developed new risk models for multiple valve operations ± CABG procedures. METHODS: Using July 2011 to June 2019 STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database data, risk models for AVR+MVRR (n = 31,968) and AVR+MVRR+CABG (n = 12,650) were developed with the following endpoints: Operative Mortality, major morbidity (any 1 or more of the following: cardiac reoperation, deep sternal wound infection/mediastinitis, stroke, prolonged ventilation, and renal failure), and combined mortality and/or major morbidity. Data were divided into development (July 2011 to June 2017; n = 35,109) and validation (July 2017 to June 2019; n = 9509) samples. Predictors were selected by assessing model performance and clinical face validity of full and progressively more parsimonious models. Performance of the resulting models was evaluated by assessing discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: C-statistics for the overall population of multiple valve ± CABG procedures were 0.7086, 0.6734, and 0.6840 for mortality, morbidity, and combined mortality and/or morbidity in the development sample, and 0.6953, 0.6561, and 0.6634 for the same outcomes, respectively, in the validation sample. CONCLUSIONS: New STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database risk models have been developed for multiple valve ± CABG operations, and these models will be used in subsequent STS performance metrics.

Trends of Ten Leading Causes of Death in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: An understanding of the leading causes of death in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) would be helpful to inform doctors, patients, and healthcare providers on disease management. This study aimed to comprehensively study the leading causes of death in these survivors. METHODS: We investigated the trends of risk factors for major causes of death in patients with HNSCC. Causes of death in HNSCC were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries. We characterized trends in the 5-year cumulative mortality as well as risk factors associated with the ten leading causes of death. RESULTS: Among 48 297 deaths identified, the ten leading causes were as follows: HNSCC, heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cerebrovascular disease, pneumonia & influenza, accidents & adverse effects, esophagus cancer, chronic liver diseases, and septicemia. Non-HNSCC deaths surpassed HNSCC deaths 4 years after cancer diagnosis. There was a significant decline in the 5-year cumulative mortality from HNSCC, heart disease, lung cancer, COPD, cerebrovascular disease, and esophagus cancer. The risks of mortality from the ten leading causes varied with patient characteristics. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide a useful picture of mortality patterns in HNSCC survivors, which might help when planning personalized HNSCC care.

Causes of death in patients with Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD), alcoholic liver disease and chronic viral Hepatitis B and C.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Cause of mortality in patients with chronic liver diseases (CLDs) may differ based on underlying etiology of liver disease. Our aim was to assess different causes of death in patients with the most common types of CLD using a national database from the United States. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Death data from 2008 and 2018 from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) were used. The rank of cause-of-death for each etiology of CLDs was assessed. Causes of death were classified by the ICD-10 codes. Liver-related deaths included liver cancer, cirrhosis and CLDs. RESULTS: Among a total of 2,826,531 deaths in 2018, there were 85,807 (3.04%) with underlying CLD (mean age at death 63.0 years, 63.8% male, 70.8% white). Liver-related mortality was the leading cause of death for all types of CLD [45.8% in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), 53.0% in chronic hepatitis C (CHC), 57.8% in chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 81.8% in alcoholic liver disease (ALD)]. This was followed by death from cardiac causes (NAFLD 10.3%, CHC 9.1%, CHB 4.6%, ALD 4.2%) and extrahepatic cancer (NAFLD 7.0%, CHC 11.9%, CHB 14.9%, ALD 2.1%). Although liver cancer was the leading cause of cancer death, lung, colorectal and pancreatic cancer were also common causes of cancer death. CONCLUSIONS: Among deceased patients with CLD, underlying liver disease was the leading cause of death. Among solid cancers, liver cancer was the leading cause of cancer-related mortality.

Características e tendência temporal das taxas de mortalidade de crianças e adolescentes em Mato Grosso e no Brasil, 2009 a 2020 / Características y tendencia temporal de la mortalidad en niños y adolescentes en Mato Grosso y Brasil, 2009 a 2020 / Characteristics and temporal trends of mortality rates in children and adolescents in Mato Grosso and Brazil, 2009-2020

Objetivo: analisar as características e a tendência temporal das taxas de mortalidade na população de 5 a 14 anos em Mato Grosso e no Brasil, no período de 2009 a 2020. Métodos: estudo ecológico de série temporal, sobre dados do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. As análises foram descritivas e de tendência, utilizando-se o modelo de regressão por pontos de inflexão (joinpoint) com cálculo da variação média no período (VMP). Resultados: no Brasil e em Mato Grosso, os óbitos foram predominantemente masculinos, evitáveis e por causas externas. Foi identificada tendência decrescente no Brasil (5 a 9 anos VMP: -2,9; IC95% -4,3;-1,6 e 10 a 14 anos VMP: -2,5; IC95% -3,3;-1,8) e estacionária em Mato Grosso (5 a 9 anos VMP: -2,0; IC95% -5,6;1,7 e 10 a 14 anos VMP: -0,1; IC95% -5,9;6,1). Conclusão: a tendência estável da mortalidade em patamares elevados demanda intervenções urgentes, visando a sua redução.

Objetivo: analizar las características y la tendencia temporal de las tasas de mortalidad en la población de 5 a 14 años en Mato Grosso y Brasil, desde 2009 hasta 2020. Métodos: estudio ecológico de serie temporal, sobre datos del Sistema de Información de Mortalidad. Se realizaron análisis descriptivos y de tendencia, utilizando el modelo de regresión por puntos de inflexión (joinpoint) y el cálculo de la variación media del periodo (VMP). Resultados: en Brasil y Mato Grosso, las muertes fueron predominantemente masculinas, evitables y por causas externas. Se identificó una tendencia decreciente en Brasil (5 a 9 años VPP: -2,9; IC95% -4,3;-1,6 y 10 a 14 años VMP: -2,5; IC95% -3,3;-1,8) y una tendencia estacionaria en Mato Grosso (5 a 9 años VMP: -2,0; IC95% -5,6;1,7 y 10 a 14 años VMP: -0,1; IC95% -5,9;6,1). Conclusión: la tendencia estacionaria de la mortalidad en niveles altos exige intervenciones urgentes orientadas a reducirla.

Objective: to analyze the characteristics and temporal trend of mortality rates in the population aged 5 to 14 years in Mato Grosso state and in Brazil, from 2009 to 2020. Methods: this was an ecological time-series study, based on data taken from the Mortality Information System. Descriptive and trend analyses were performed, using the joinpoint regression model and calculating the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Results: in Brazil and in Mato Grosso state, deaths were predominantly male, preventable and due to external causes. A falling trend was identified for Brazil (5-9 years AAPC: -2.9; 95%CI -4.3;-1.6 and 10-14 years AAPC: -2.5; 95%CI -3.3;-1.8), while a stationary trend was found in Mato Grosso (5-9 years AAPC: -2.0; 95%CI -5.6;1.7 and 10-14 years AAPC: -0.1; 95%CI -5.9;6.1). Conclusion: the stable trend of mortality at high levels demands urgent interventions to reduce it.

Mortalidade por quedas em idosos no Distrito Federal: características e tendência temporal no período 1996-2017 / Mortalidad por caídas en ancianos en el Distrito Federal, Brasil: características y tendencia temporal no período 1996-2017 / Mortality from falls in the elderly in the Federal District, Brazil: characteristics and time trend, 1996-2017

Objetivo: Descrever e analisar a tendência temporal dos óbitos por quedas em idosos no Distrito Federal, Brasil, no período de 1996 a 2017. Métodos: Estudo descritivo, a partir de dados sobre óbitos por quedas do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade, da base de dados do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde do Brasil. Foram investigadas variáveis demográficas, socioeconômicas, tipo de queda e local de ocorrência do óbito. Realizou-se regressão linear segmentada para analisar a variação percentual anual (VPA), adotando-se p≤05. Resultados: Foram analisados os dados de 2.828 óbitos por quedas em idosos (mulheres, 54,2%; homens, 45,8%). Observou-se aumento do número de óbitos por quedas entre idosos com 80 anos ou mais (VPA=3,0; p<0,001). Conclusão: Houve tendência crescente de mortalidade por quedas em idosos ≥80 anos. São necessárias estratégias para redução dos óbitos por quedas, principalmente entre os idosos com idade mais avançada.

Objetivo: Describir y analizar la tendencia temporal de muertes por caídas en ancianos en el Distrito Federal, Brasil, entre 1996 y 2017. Métodos: Estudio descriptivo basado en datos de muertes por caídas del Sistema de Información de Mortalidad, de la Base de datos del Departamento de informática del Sistema Único de Salud de Brasil. Se investigaron datos demográficos, socioeconómicos, tipo de caída y lugar de muerte. Se realizó una regresión lineal segmentada para analizar la variación porcentual anual (APC), adoptando p≤05. Resultados: Se analizaron los datos de 2.828 muertes por caídas en ancianos (mujeres 54,2%; hombres 45,8%). Hubo un aumento de la mortalidad por caídas en los ancianos mayores de 80 años (APC 3,0; p<0,001). Conclusión: Hubo una tendencia creciente de mortalidad por caídas en los ancianos de 80 años y más. Se necesitan estrategias para reducir las muertes por caídas, especialmente entre las personas mayores.

Objective: To describe and analyze the temporal trend of deaths from falls in the elderly in the Federal District, Brazil, between 1996 and 2017. Methods: This was a descriptive study based on data on deaths from falls held on the Mortality Information System, part of the database of the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian National Health System. Demographic, socioeconomic, type of fall and place of death variables were investigated. Segmented linear regression was performed to analyze annual percent change (APC), adopting p≤05. Results: Data from 2,828 deaths from falls in the elderly were analyzed (54.2% women; 45.8% men). There was an increase in mortality from falls in the elderly aged 80 years and over (APC 3.0; p<0,001). Conclusion: There was an increasing trend of mortality from falls in the elderly aged 80 years and over. Strategies are needed to reduce deaths from falls, especially among older elderly people.

High levels of interleukin-6 are associated with final infarct size and adverse clinical events in patients with STEMI.

OBJECTIVE: Inflammation has emerged as a new treatment target in patients with coronary artery disease and inflammation seems to play an important role in ischaemia/reperfusion injury that follows ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We aimed to explore the role of acute and sustained interleukin 6 (IL-6) signalling, including soluble IL-6 receptor (IL-6R), with regard to infarct size, adverse remodelling and future cardiovascular events in patients with STEMI. METHODS: We included 269 patients with first-time STEMI, symptom duration <6 hours and treated with percutaneous coronary intervention. Blood sampling and cardiac MRI were performed in the acute phase and after 4 months. Clinical events and all-cause mortality were registered during 12-month and 70-month follow-up, respectively. RESULTS: IL-6 levels above median at all sampling points were significantly associated with increased infarct size and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). IL-6 levels in the highest quartile were at all sampling points associated with an increased risk of having an adverse clinical event during the first 12 months and with long-term all-cause mortality. IL-6R was not associated with infarct size, LVEF, myocardial salvage or long-term all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION: Acute and sustained elevation of IL-6 measured 4 months after STEMI were associated with larger infarct size, reduced LVEF and adverse clinical events including all-cause mortality. The results add important information to the sustained role of inflammation in patients with STEMI and IL-6 as a potential target for long-term intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00922675.

Risk factors for excess all-cause mortality during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in England: A retrospective cohort study of primary care data.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic's first wave in England during spring 2020 resulted in an approximate 50% increase in all-cause mortality. Previously, risk factors such as age and ethnicity, were identified by studying COVID-related deaths only, but these were under-recorded during this period. OBJECTIVE: To use a large electronic primary care database to estimate the impact of risk factors (RFs) on excess mortality in England during the first wave, compared with the impact on total mortality during 2015-19. METHODS: Medical history, ethnicity, area-based deprivation and vital status data were extracted for an average of 4.8 million patients aged 30-104 years, for each year between 18-March and 19-May over a 6-year period (2015-2020). We used Poisson regression to model total mortality adjusting for age and sex, with interactions between each RF and period (pandemic vs. 2015-19). Total mortality during the pandemic was partitioned into "usual" and "excess" components, assuming 2015-19 rates represented "usual" mortality. The association of each RF with the 2020 "excess" component was derived as the excess mortality ratio (EMR), and compared with the usual mortality ratio (UMR). RESULTS: RFs where excess mortality was greatest and notably higher than usual were age >80, non-white ethnicity (e.g., black vs. white EMR = 2.50, 95%CI 1.97-3.18; compared to UMR = 0.92, 95%CI 0.85-1.00), BMI>40, dementia, learning disability, severe mental illness, place of residence (London, care-home, most deprived). By contrast, EMRs were comparable to UMRs for sex. Although some co-morbidities such as cancer produced EMRs significantly below their UMRs, the EMRs were still >1. In contrast current smoking has an EMR below 1 (EMR = 0.80, 95%CI 0.65-0.98) compared to its UMR = 1.64. CONCLUSIONS: Studying risk factors for excess mortality during the pandemic highlighted differences from studying cause-specific mortality. Our approach illustrates a novel methodology for evaluating a pandemic's impact by individual risk factor without requiring cause-specific mortality data.