Diferencias socioespaciales entre homicidios y suicidios en Argentina, 1994-2014 / Diferenças socioespaciais entre homicídios e suicídios na Argentina, 1994-2014 / Socio-spatial differences between homicide and suicide in Argentina, 1994-2014

Los objetivos de este estudio son descubrir la conformación de conglomerados espaciotemporales de los suicidios, homicidios y muertes por lesiones de intención no determinada (MLIND) en Argentina, durante el período 1994-2014, y analizar la asociación espaciotemporal entre conglomerados de suicidios u homicidios y conglomerados de MLIND en Argentina durante el mismo período. Las unidades espaciales fueron los departamentos de Argentina. Se hizo un rastreo estadístico espaciotemporal para la detección de conglomerados por sexo y grupos de edad (10 a 29, 30 a 59 y 60 o más años). Se utilizaron dos modelos espaciotemporales: multinomial y Bernoulli. La emergencia de conglomerados de homicidios en hombres estuvo más asociada a caídas más abruptas en los niveles de empleo, entre 1991 y 2001, en comparación a los suicidios. Las áreas con densidades poblacionales altas y porcentajes más altos de necesidades básicas insatisfechas (NBI) tendieron a estar incluidas en conglomerados de homicidio en hombres en comparación a los suicidios. Hubo un mayor solapamiento espaciotemporal entre MLIND y homicidios. Los resultados obtenidos apoyan las hipótesis de 1) una diferenciación geográfica entre homicidios y suicidios en tiempos de crisis económica y 2) la representación mayoritaria de MLIND en homicidios ocultos.

Os objetivos deste estudo são: conhecer a conformação dos conglomerados espaço-temporais de suicídios, homicídios e óbitos por lesões por intenção indeterminada (MLIND) na Argentina, durante o período 1994-2014; e analisar a associação espaço-temporal entre grupos de suicídio ou homicídio e grupos de MLIND, na Argentina no mesmo período. As unidades espaciais foram os departamentos da Argentina. Uma varredura estatística espaço-temporal foi realizada para detectar clusters por sexo e grupos de idade (10-29, 30-59 e 60 anos ou mais). Dois modelos espaço-temporais foram usados: multinomial e Bernoulli. O surgimento de conglomerados de homicídios em homens esteve mais associado a reduções mais acentuadas nos níveis de emprego, entre 1991 e 2001, em comparação com os suicídios. Áreas com altas densidades populacionais e maiores percentuais de necessidades básicas insatisfeitas (indicador de pobreza) tenderam a ser incluídas em conglomerados de homicídio em homens, em comparação com suicídios. Houve uma maior sobreposição espaço-temporal entre MLIND e homicídios. Os resultados obtidos suportam as hipóteses de uma diferenciação geográfica entre homicídios e suicídios em tempos de crise económica e que os MLINDs representariam principalmente homicídios ocultos.

The objectives of this study are to discover the conformation of spatio-temporal clusters of suicides, homicides and deaths due to injuries of undetermined intention (MLIND) in Argentina, during the period 1994-2014, and to analyze the spatio-temporal association between suicide or homicide clusters and MLIND clusters in Argentina during the same period. The spatial units were the departments of Argentina. Space-time scan statistics were performed to detect clusters by sex and age groups (10-29 years, 30-59 years and 60 or more years). Two space-time models were used: multinomial and Bernoulli. The emergence of homicide clusters in men was more associated with steeper drops in employment levels, between 1991 and 2001, compared to suicide clusters. Areas with the highest population density and with the highest percentage of Unsatisfied Basic Needs (poverty indicator) were more likely to be included in clusters with high proportions of homicide in men, compared to suicide. There was a greater spatio-temporal overlap between MLIND and homicides. The results obtained support the hypotheses of (1) a geographical differentiation between homicides and suicides in times of economic crisis; and (2) MLIND would represent mostly hidden homicides.

COVID-19 y adultos mayores: comparación espaciotemporal entre mortalidad y vacunación en la provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina / COVID-19 and older adults: spatiotemporal comparison between mortality and vaccination in the province of Buenos Aires, Argentina

RESUMEN El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar las variaciones espaciotemporales de la mortalidad por COVID-19 en adultos mayores y de la vacunación contra la COVID-19 en esta población. Se utilizaron datos de defunciones por COVID-19 y de personas de 70 a más años inmunizadas con la primera dosis de vacunas contra esta enfermedad, en partidos de la provincia de Buenos Aires, desde el 29 de diciembre del 2020 al 30 de junio de 2021. Se emplearon técnicas de escaneo espaciotemporal para detectar conglomerados. Los partidos del Gran Buenos Aires que tuvieron mayor vacunación con la primera dosis de la vacuna Sputnik V en población de 70 a más años, entre mediados de marzo y principios de abril de 2021, coincidieron mayormente en registrar una disminución de la mortalidad en esta población, entre finales de abril y finales de junio de 2021. Este estudio mostró algunos indicios del impacto positivo de la aplicación de la primera dosis de la vacuna Sputnik V en el Gran Buenos Aires.

ABSTRACT The aim of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of COVID-19 mortality and vaccination against COVID-19 in older adults. We used data from deaths due to COVID-19 and persons aged 70 years and older immunized with the first dose of vaccines against this disease, from districts of the province of Buenos Aires, between December 29, 2020, and June 30, 2021. Spatiotemporal scanning techniques were used to detect clusters. The parties of Greater Buenos Aires that had the highest vaccination rate with the first dose of the Sputnik V vaccine in population aged 70 years and older, between mid-March and early April 2021, also registered a decrease in mortality in this population, between the end of April and the end of June 2021. This study showed some signs of the positive impact associated with the application of the first dose of Sputnik V vaccine in Greater Buenos Aires.

Spatio-temporal trend of BIRADS classification suggestive of malignancy: a national analysis of mammograms, 2013-2017.

INTRODUCTION: Promoting breast cancer (BC) detection in women by means of mammography is a viable strategy to reduce the number of diagnoses at clinically advanced stages and mortality. OBJECTIVES: To describe the results reported by mammography studies in women, carried out nationally during 2013-2017, and to analyze the spatiotemporal trend of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BIRADS) categories suggestive of malignancy by State. METHOD: Longitudinal, analytical design that included information on mammography studies of women according to age group (< 40 and ≥ 40), evaluated in units of the Ministry of Health of Mexico during 2013-2017. The frequency of BIRADS categories and a standardized rate suggestive of malignancy (categories 4 and 5) were estimated in women aged ≥ 40 years, and spatial statistics were used to analyze the trend by State. RESULTS: A total of 3,659,151 mammograms were analyzed, 98.5 % in women aged ≥ 40 years. The malignancy-suggestive rate decreased from 38.3 (2013) to 31 (2017) per 100,000 women aged ≥ 40 years; however, the risk of detection increased up to 13 times in ten States. CONCLUSIONS: Although the risk of detection in categories suggestive of malignancy decreased at the national level, some States need to reinforce the application of BC detection programs through mammography and increase the participation of the target population.

INTRODUCCIÓN: Promover la detección de cáncer de mama (CaMa) en mujeres mediante mastografía es una estrategia viable para disminuir los diagnósticos en fases clínicamente avanzadas y la mortalidad. OBJETIVOS: Describir los resultados reportados por estudios de mastografía en mujeres realizados a nivel nacional durante 2013-2017 y analizar la tendencia espaciotemporal de categorías BIRADS (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System) sugestivas de malignidad por Estado. MÉTODO: Diseño analítico longitudinal que incluyó información sobre estudios de mastografía de mujeres según grupo de edad (< 40 e ≥ 40), valoradas en unidades de la Secretaría de Salud, México, durante 2013-2017. Se estimó la frecuencia de categorías según BIRADS, tasa estandarizada sugestiva de malignidad (categorías 4 y 5) en mujeres ≥ 40 años y se utilizó estadística espacial para analizar la tendencia por Estado. RESULTADOS: Se analizaron 3,659,151 mastografías, el 98.5 % en mujeres ≥ 40 años. La tasa sugestiva de malignidad disminuyó de 38.3 (2013) a 31 (2017) por 100 mil mujeres ≥ 40 años; sin embargo, el riesgo de detección aumentó hasta 13 veces en diez Estados. CONCLUSIONES: Aunque el riesgo de detección en categorías sugestivas de malignidad disminuyó a nivel nacional, algunos Estados requieren reforzar la aplicación de programas de detección del CaMa mediante mastografía e incrementar la participación de la población blanco.

Global, regional and national incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years of skin cancers and trend analysis from 1990 to 2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Information about global and local epidemiology and trends of skin cancers is limited, which increases the difficulty of cutaneous cancer control. METHODS: To estimate the global spatial patterns and temporal trends of skin cancer burden. Based on the GBD 2019, we collected and analyzed numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) of skin cancer incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality (ASIR, ASDR, and ASMR) in 204 countries from 1990 through 2019 were estimated by age, sex, subtype (malignant skin melanoma [MSM], squamous-cell carcinoma [SCC], and basal-cell carcinoma [BCC]), Socio-demographic Index (SDI), region, and country. Temporal trends in ASR were also analyzed using estimated annual percentage change. RESULTS: Globally, in 2019, there were 4.0 million BCC, 2.4 million SCC, and 0.3 million MSM. There were approximately 62.8 thousand deaths and 1.7 million DALYs due to MSM, and 56.1 thousand deaths and 1.2 million DALYs were attributed to SCC, respectively. The men had higher ASR of skin cancer burden than women. The age-specific rates of global skin cancer burden were higher in the older adults, increasing trends observed from 55 years old. Geographically, the numbers and ASR of skin cancers varied greatly across countries, with the largest burden of ASIR in high SDI regions. However, an unexpected increase was observed in some regions from 1990 to 2019, such as East Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Although there was a slight decrease of the ASMR and ASDR, the global ASIR of MSM dramatically increased, 1990-2019. Also, there was a remarkable increase in ASR of BCC and SCC burden. CONCLUSIONS: Skin cancer remains a major global public health threat. Reducing morbidity and mortality strategies such as primary and secondary prevention should be reconsidered, especially in the most prevalent and unexpected increased regions, especially for those areas with the greatest proportions of their population over age 55.

Tendencia espacio-temporal de clasificación BIRADS sugestiva de malignidad: un análisis nacional de mastografías, 2013-2017 / Spatio-temporal trend of BIRADS classification suggestive of malignancy: a national analysis of mammograms, 2013-2017

Resumen Introducción: Promover la detección de cáncer de mama (CaMa) en mujeres mediante mastografía es una estrategia viable para disminuir los diagnósticos en fases clínicamente avanzadas y la mortalidad. Objetivos: Describir los resultados reportados por estudios de mastografía en mujeres realizados a nivel nacional durante 2013-2017 y analizar la tendencia espaciotemporal de categorías BIRADS (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System) sugestivas de malignidad por Estado. Método: Diseño analítico longitudinal que incluyó información sobre estudios de mastografía de mujeres según grupo de edad (< 40 e ≥ 40), valoradas en unidades de la Secretaría de Salud, México, durante 2013-2017. Se estimó la frecuencia de categorías según BIRADS, tasa estandarizada sugestiva de malignidad (categorías 4 y 5) en mujeres ≥ 40 años y se utilizó estadística espacial para analizar la tendencia por Estado. Resultados: Se analizaron 3,659,151 mastografías, el 98.5 % en mujeres ≥ 40 años. La tasa sugestiva de malignidad disminuyó de 38.3 (2013) a 31 (2017) por 100 mil mujeres ≥ 40 años; sin embargo, el riesgo de detección aumentó hasta 13 veces en diez Estados. Conclusiones: Aunque el riesgo de detección en categorías sugestivas de malignidad disminuyó a nivel nacional, algunos Estados requieren reforzar la aplicación de programas de detección del CaMa mediante mastografía e incrementar la participación de la población blanco.

Abstract Introduction: Promoting breast cancer (BC) detection in women by means of mammography is a viable strategy to reduce the number of diagnoses at clinically advanced stages and mortality. Objectives: To describe the results reported by mammography studies in women, carried out nationally during 2013-2017, and to analyze the spatiotemporal trend of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BIRADS) categories suggestive of malignancy by State. Method: Longitudinal, analytical design that included information on mammography studies of women according to age group (< 40 and ≥ 40), evaluated in units of the Ministry of Health of Mexico during 2013-2017. The frequency of BIRADS categories and a standardized rate suggestive of malignancy (categories 4 and 5) were estimated in women aged ≥ 40 years, and spatial statistics were used to analyze the trend by State. Results: A total of 3,659,151 mammograms were analyzed, 98.5 % in women aged ≥ 40 years. The malignancy-suggestive rate decreased from 38.3 (2013) to 31 (2017) per 100,000 women aged ≥ 40 years; however, the risk of detection increased up to 13 times in ten States. Conclusions: Although the risk of detection in categories suggestive of malignancy decreased at the national level, some States need to reinforce the application of BC detection programs through mammography and increase the participation of the target population.

Impacto e tendência da COVID-19 no sistema penitenciário do Brasil: um estudo ecológico / Impact and trend of COVID-19 in the Brazilian prison system: an ecological study

Resumo Tendo em vista a rápida disseminação do novo coronavírus no sistema prisional, o presente trabalho teve como objetivos identificar aglomerados espaciais para ocorrência da COVID-19 na população privada de liberdade (PPL) e analisar a tendência temporal dos casos confirmados no sistema penitenciário do Brasil. Estudo ecológico que considerou como unidades de análise as cinco macrorregiões do Brasil, seus 26 estados e o Distrito Federal. A população foi composta por todos os casos de COVID-19 confirmados, no período de 14 de abril a 31 de agosto de 2020. A fonte de dados utilizada foi o Painel de Monitoramento dos casos de COVID-19 nos sistemas prisionais do Departamento Penitenciário Nacional. Realizou-se análise descritiva, estatística de varredura e análise da tendência temporal. Foram notificados 18.767 casos de COVID-19 na PPL, dos quais 4.724 ocorreram no estado de São Paulo. A estatística de varredura possibilitou a identificação de 14 clusters espaciais de risco para COVID-19 na PPL, sendo o aglomerado de maior risco formado pelo Distrito Federal. Embora o país finalize a série com um comportamento decrescente, observa-se que no período de investigação a tendência apresentou um comportamento maioritariamente crescente. Evidencia-se a necessidade de testagem em massa, monitoramento e registro contínuo dos casos de COVID-19 na PPL do país.

Abstract Given the rapid spread of new coronavirus within the prison system, this study's objective was to identify spatial clusters for the occurrence of COVID-19 in the incarcerated population and analyze temporal trends of confirmed cases in the Brazilian prison system. This ecological study considered the five Brazilian macro-regions to be units of analysis, with its 26 states and the Federal District. The population was composed of all COVID-19 cases confirmed from April 14th to August 31st, 2020. The source used to collect data was the COVID-19 Monitoring Panel from the National Prison Department. Descriptive analysis, scan statistics, and time series were performed. A total of 18,767 COVID-19 cases were reported among the incarcerated population, 4,724 in São Paulo. The scan statistic analysis resulted in 14 spatial risk clusters for COVID-19 among persons deprived of liberty; the highest-risk cluster was in the Federal District. Although the country ends the series with a decreasing behavior, a growing trend was verified in most of the study period. The conclusion is that there is a need to implement mass testing among the incarcerated population while continually monitoring and recording COVID-19 cases.

A Cluster of Beryllium Sensitization Traced to the Presence of Beryllium in Concrete Dust.

BACKGROUND: Chronic beryllium disease (CBD), a granulomatous disease with similarities to sarcoidosis, arises only in individuals exposed to beryllium. Inhaled beryllium can elicit a T-cell-dominated alveolitis leading nonnecrotizing granulomata. CBD can be distinguished from sarcoidosis by demonstrating beryllium sensitization in a lymphocyte proliferation test. RESEARCH QUESTION: Beryllium exposure usually occurs in an occupational setting. Because of the diagnosis of CBD in a patient without evident beryllium exposure, we performed a beryllium-lymphocyte proliferation test (BeLPT) among his work colleagues. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This field study investigated a cohort of work colleagues without obvious beryllium exposure. Twenty-one of 30 individuals were assessed in our outpatient clinic for beryllium sensitization. Therefore, BeLPT was performed with freshly collected peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Data were extracted from clinical charts, including geographical data. Beryllium content in dust samples collected at the workplace was measured by graphite-furnace atomic absorption spectroscopy and was compared with samples from different areas of Germany. RESULTS: For the initial patient, the diagnosis of sarcoidosis was reclassified as CBD based on two positive BeLPT results. Assessment of his workplace did not identify a source of beryllium. However, BeLPTs performed on his workmates demonstrated beryllium sensitization in 5 of 21 individuals, suggesting a local beryllium source. Concrete dust obtained from the building yard, the workplace of the index patient, contained high amounts of beryllium (1138 ± 162 µg/kg), whereas dust from other localities (control samples) showed much lower beryllium content (range, 147 ± 18-452 ± 206 µg/kg). Notably, the control dust collected from different places all over Germany exhibit different beryllium concentrations. INTERPRETATION: We describe a cluster of beryllium-sensitized workers from an industry not related to beryllium caused by environmental exposure to beryllium-containing concrete dust, which exhibited markedly elevated beryllium content. Importantly, analyses of dust samples collected from different localities showed that they contain markedly different amounts of beryllium. Thus, besides workplace-related exposure, environmental factors also are capable of eliciting a beryllium sensitization.

Premature mortality of gastrointestinal cancer in Iran: trends and projections 2001-2030.

BACKGROUND: The present study was conducted to determine the trend and projection of premature mortality from gastrointestinal cancers (GI cancers) at national and subnational levels in Iran. METHODS: Employing the data obtained from Iranian Death Registry System (DRS) and population data from census, the mortality rates of GI cancers was calculated among 30-70 age groups. The trends of esophageal, colon and rectum, gallbladder, pancreases, stomach, and liver cancer premature mortalities were estimated and projected at the national and subnational levels from 2001 to 2030. Then, Spatio-temporal model was used to project spatial and temporal correlations. RESULTS: The overall mortality rate of GI cancers was higher in males than in females, indicating 6.1, 3.9 and 3.9% per 100,000 individuals among males in 2001, 2015 and 2030 respectively and 3.8, 3.1 and 3.7 per 100,000 individuals among females in the same time-frame. The overall mortality rate of GI cancers in males was decreasing until 2015 and will remain stationary into 2030; however, the rate will be increasing among females in both time-frames. Also, there was a considerable variation in the mortality trends of different cancers. Pancreatic, gallbladder, and liver cancers were shown to have an increasing trend while a drop was observed in the mortality rates of stomach, colon and rectum, and esophageal cancers. CONCLUSION: Variation of GI cancers patterns and trends around the country indicated that a more comprehensive control plan is needed to include the predicted variations.

Daily surveillance of COVID-19 using the prospective space-time scan statistic in the United States.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first discovered in late 2019 in Wuhan City, China. The virus may cause novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in symptomatic individuals. Since December of 2019, there have been over 7,000,000 confirmed cases and over 400,000 confirmed deaths worldwide. In the United States (U.S.), there have been over 2,000,000 confirmed cases and over 110,000 confirmed deaths. COVID-19 case data in the United States has been updated daily at the county level since the first case was reported in January of 2020. There currently lacks a study that showcases the novelty of daily COVID-19 surveillance using space-time cluster detection techniques. In this paper, we utilize a prospective Poisson space-time scan statistic to detect daily clusters of COVID-19 at the county level in the contiguous 48 U.S. and Washington D.C. As the pandemic progresses, we generally find an increase of smaller clusters of remarkably steady relative risk. Daily tracking of significant space-time clusters can facilitate decision-making and public health resource allocation by evaluating and visualizing the size, relative risk, and locations that are identified as COVID-19 hotspots.

Série histórica dos casos de dengue no estado do Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil / Historical series of case dengue in Rio Grande do Norte state, Brazil / Serie histórica de dengue casos en el estado de Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

O presente estudo objetivou descrever a série histórica dos casos de dengue no estado do Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil. Trata-se de uma pesquisa epidemiológica, documental e retrospectiva, com recorte temporal entre os anos de 2007 e 2016. Os dados foram obtidos no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação por meio do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde e da Secretaria de Estado da Saúde Pública do Rio Grande do Norte. Um total de 228.494 casos de dengue foram notificados no recorte temporal. O maior número de casos notificados foi em 2016 (n: 62.841). Em maior frequência no sexo feminino (n: 457.229), na raça parda (n: 67.260) e na etária entre 20-39 anos de idade (n: 75.080). A maioria dos casos foi classificado como dengue clássica (n: 46.006), a confirmação do diagnóstico foi por exames laboratoriais (n: 16.211) e obteve a evolução para a cura (n: 79.459). O dado com maiores valores são os ignorados. É preocupante a quantidade de dados em branco dentro das variáveis coletados. Faz-se necessário ressaltar a importância dos registros para o controle e prevenção.

Este estudio tuvo como objetivo describir la serie histórica de casos de dengue en el estado de Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil. Esta es una investigación epidemiológica, documental y retrospectiva, con un calendario entre 2007 y 2016. Los datos se obtuvieron del Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Notificación a través del Departamento de Informática del Sistema Único de Salud y el Departamento de Salud y Secretaría de Estado de Salud Pública de Rio Grande do Norte. Se informó un total de 228.494 casos de dengue en el período de tiempo. El mayor número de casos reportados fue en 2016 (n: 62.841). Con mayor frecuencia en mujeres (n: 457.229), raza mixta (n: 67.260) y edad 20-39 años (n: 75.080). La mayoría de los casos se clasificaron como dengue clásico (n: 46.006), el diagnóstico se confirmó mediante exámenes de laboratorio (n: 16.211) y progresó a la curación (n: 79.459). Los datos con los valores más altos son los ignorados. La cantidad de datos en blanco dentro de las variables recopiladas es preocupante. Es necesario enfatizar la importancia de los registros para el control y la prevención.

This study aimed to describe the historical series of dengue cases in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. This is an epidemiological, documentary and retrospective study, with a temporal cut between the years 2007 and 2016. Data were obtained from the Notifi cation Disease Information System through the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System and State Secretariat of Public Health of Rio Grande do Norte. A total of 228.494 cases of dengue were reported in the temporal cut. The highest number of reported cases was in 2016 (n: 62.841). More frequent in females (n: 457.229), brown breed (n: 67.260) and in the age group 20-39 years old (n: 75.080). The majority of the cases were classified as classical dengue (n: 46.006); the diagnosis was confirmed by laboratory tests (n: 16.211) and the evolution to cure (n: 79.459) was obtained. The data with higher values are ignored. It is worrying the amount of blank data within the variables collected. It is necessary to emphasize the importance of the records for the control and prevention.

Maternal mortality and social vulnerability in a Northeast State in Brazil: a spatial-temporal approach / Mortalidade materna e vulnerabilidade social no Estado de Alagoas no Nordeste brasileiro: uma abordagem espaço-temporal

Abstract Objectives: to analyze the epidemiological profile and the spatial-temporal dynamics on maternal mortality in Alagoas and its relationship with social vulnerability and income inequality. Methods: a mixed ecological study involving maternal deaths who resided in Alagoas from 1996 to 2016. Sociodemographic variables (age, race/color, education, marital status), clinical (type of obstetric cause, death by category and ICD group) were analyzed, besides the indicators (Maternal Mortality Ratio-MMR, Social Vulnerability Index and Gini Index). For the temporal analysis, we used the inflection point regression model and for the spatial analysis, the local empirical Bayesian model, Moran Global and Local statistics, and the bivariate local spatial autocorrelation analysis. Results: a total of 586 deaths (47.63/100 thousand live births) were registered, with a trend of MMR growth (APC 2.8%), with a heterogeneous distribution between health regions and cities. The profile was characterized by the predominance of young, black / mixed skin color women with low schooling. Eight cities were considered priority. There was spatial correlation with the Social Vulnerability Index and income inequality. Conclusions: identifying priority areas may contribute to planning and targeting interventions.

Resumo Objetivos: analisar o perfil epidemiológico e a dinâmica espaço-temporal da mortalidade materna em Alagoas e sua relação com a vulnerabilidade social e a desigualdade de renda. Métodos: estudo ecológico misto envolvendo os óbitos maternos de residentes em Alagoas de 1996 a 2016. Foram analisadas variáveis sociodemográficas (faixa etária, raça/cor, escolaridade, estado civil), clínicas (tipo de causa obstétrica, óbito por categoria e grupo de CID), além de indicadores (Razão de Mortalidade Materna-RMM, Índice de Vulnerabilidade Social e Índice de Gini). Para a análise temporal utilizou-se o modelo de regressão por pontos de inflexão e para a análise espacial o modelo bayesiano empírico local, a estatística de Moran Global e Local e a análise de autocorrelação espacial local bivariável. Resultados: foram registrados 586 óbitos (47,63/100 mil nascidos vivos), com tendência de crescimento da RMM (APC 2,8%), com distribuição heterogênea entre as regiões de saúde e municípios. O perfil foi caracterizado pelo predomínio de mulheres jovens, pretas/pardas e de baixa escolaridade. Oito municípios foram considerados prioritários. Houve correlação espacial com o Índice de Vulnerabilidade Social e de desigualdade de renda. Conclusões: a identificação de áreas prioritárias pode contribuir para o planejamento e direcionamento de intervenções.

Analysis of the Breast Cancer Mortality Rate in Portugal Over a Decade: Spatiotemporal Clustering Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Breast cancer is the first cause of cancer-related death in Portuguese women. This study aimed to characterize female breast cancer mortality in Portugal in the period between 2002 and 2013, with a special focus on spatiotemporal patterns. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The breast cancer mortality rate was studied using descriptive analysis (unadjusted and age-adjusted), and spatiotemporal clustering analyses. RESULTS: In 2002 - 2013 the breast cancer mortality rate was 28.47/100 000 inhabitants and the age-adjusted mortality rate was 19.46/100 000 inhabitants. In this period the Lisbon region (urban), Alentejo and Algarve (rural) presented higher breast cancer mortality rate, but Madeira (urban), Lisbon and Algarve had higher age-adjusted mortality rate. In the spatiotemporal analysis, the overall mortality rate showed an increasing trend of 1.218%/year, without spatial variations. Also, different patterns were detected in the < 50, 50 - 64 and ≥ 65 age-groups (+ 0.725%, - 1.781% and + 0.896%, respectively). One temporal (2004 - 2006) and one spatiotemporal cluster (North coast) presented significantly lower mortality rate than expected for the period and/or area (26.2 and 16.1/100 000 inhabitants, respectively). Conversely, two spatiotemporal clusters, located in the city of Lisbon (2002 - 2007) and in the Centre region (2008 - 2013), presented significantly higher breast cancer mortality rate than expected (48.6 and 34.9/100 000 inhabitants, relative risk: 1.74 and 1.26, respectively). DISCUSSION: The annual female crude and adjusted breast cancer mortality rate matched previous publications. However the annual increase detected in the unadjusted rate clashes with the published literature. Overall, the presence of spatiotemporal clusters supports the uneven distribution of the breast cancer mortality reported previously in the different Portuguese regions. CONCLUSION: This study identified areas and trends of the female breast cancer mortality rate, showing high spatiotemporal variations that must support further detailed studies/interventions.

Introdução: O cancro da mama é a primeira causa de morte relacionada com cancro em mulheres portuguesas. Este estudo pretende caracterizar a mortalidade feminina por cancro da mama em Portugal no período de 2002 a 2013, com enfoque nos padrões espácio-temporais. Material e Métodos: A taxa de mortalidade por cancro da mama foi estudada com recurso a análise descritiva (bruta e ajustada para a idade), e análise de clustering espácio-temporal. Resultados: Em 2002 ­ 2013 a taxa de mortalidade por cancro da mama foi 28,47/100 000 habitantes e a taxa de mortalidade ajustada pela idade foi de 19,46/100 000 habitantes. Neste período a região de Lisboa (urbana), Alentejo e Algarve (rural) apresentaram taxas de mortalidade mais elevadas, mas após ajustamento pela idade a Madeira (urbana), Lisboa e Algarve demonstraram taxas de mortalidade superiores. Na análise espácio-temporal, a taxa de mortalidade geral apresentou um crescimento de 1,218%/ano, sem variações espaciais. Adicionalmente, padrões diferentes foram detetados nos grupos de mulheres com < 50, 50 - 64 e ≥ 65 anos (+ 0,725%, - 1,781% e + 0,896%, respetivamente). Um cluster temporal (2004 ­ 2006) e um espácio-temporal (costa Norte) apresentaram taxa de mortalidade significativamente mais baixas que o esperado para o período e/ou área (26,2 e16,1/100 000 habitantes, respetivamente). Por outro lado, dois clusters espácio-temporais, localizados na cidade de Lisboa (2002 ­ 2007) e na zona Centro (2008 ­ 2013), apresentaram taxas de mortalidade por cancro da mama superiores às expectáveis (48,6 e 34,9/100 000 habitantes, risco relativo: 1,74 e 1,26, respetivamente). Discussão: A taxa anual bruta e ajustada para a idade de mortalidade por cancro da mama aproximam-se das anteriormente publicadas. No entanto, o aumento anual nas taxas brutas contrasta com a literatura neste tópico. A presença de clusters espácio-temporais suporta a distribuição variável da taxa de mortalidade por cancro da mama nas diferentes regiões do país. Conclusão: Este estudo identificou áreas e tendências na taxa de mortalidade feminina por cancro da mama, demonstrando variações espácio-temporais nesta taxa que suportam estudos e intervenções mais detalhadas nesta área.

Overview of acute diarrheal disease at the dawn of the 21st century: The case of Mexico / Panorama de la enfermedad diarreica aguda en los albores del siglo XXI: el caso de México

Abstract: Objective: To provide an overview of morbidity and mortality due to acute diarrheal disease in Mexico in order to understand its magnitude, distribution, and evolution from 2000 to 2016. Materials and methods: We carried out a longitudinal ecological study with secondary sources of information. We used data from epidemiological surveillance, health services, and vital statistics. We calculated and mapped measures of utilization of health services rates and mortality due to diarrheal diseases. Results: Diarrhea morbidity decreased by 42.1% across the period. However, emergency department attendances increased by 50.7% in the Ministry of Health. The hospitalization rate and mortality among the general population decreased by 37.6 and 39.7%, respectively, and the infant mortality rate decreased by 72.3% among children under five years of age. Chiapas and Oaxaca had the highest mortality among the states of Mexico. Conclusions: Cases of diarrhea, including rotavirus, have decreased in Mexico. However, in 2016, 3.4 per 100 000 people died due to diarrhea, which could have been avoided with health promotion.

Resumen: Objetivo: Ofrecer un panorama de la morbimortalidad por enfermedad diarreica aguda (EDA) entre 2000 y 2016 en México, para entender su magnitud, distribución y evolución. Material y métodos: Estudio ecológico longitudinal, con fuentes de información secundarias. Se analizaron datos de vigilancia epidemiológica, prestación de servicios y estadísticas vitales. Se calcularon tasas de utilización de servicios y mortalidad. Resultados: La morbilidad por EDA disminuyó 42.1% en el periodo, sin embargo, la atención por urgencias aumentó 50.7% en SS. La tasa de hospitalización descendió 37.6% y la mortalidad 39.7% en población general y 72.3% en menores de cinco años. Chiapas y Oaxaca fueron los estados con mayor tasa de mortalidad. Conclusiones: Los casos de diarrea, incluyendo los de rotavirus, han disminuido en el país. Sin embargo, en 2016 se encontró una tasa de 3.4 por 100 000 personas que mueren por EDA, lo cual podría evitarse con promoción de la salud.

Space-time clustering of childhood leukemia in Colombia: a nationwide study.

BACKGROUND: Leukemia is the most common cancer in childhood. The estimated incidence rate of childhood leukemia in Colombia is one of the highest in America and little is known about its spatial distribution. PURPOSE: To explore the presence of space-time clustering of childhood leukemia in Colombia. METHODS: We included children less than 15 years of age with confirmed diagnosis of acute leukemia reported to the national surveillance system for cancer between 2009 and 2017. Kulldorff's spatio-temporal scan statistics were used with municipality and year of diagnosis as units for spatial and temporal analysis. RESULTS: There were 3846 cases of childhood leukemia between 2009 and 2017 with a specific mean incidence rate of 33 cases per million person-years in children aged 0-14 years. We identified five spatial clusters of childhood leukemia in different regions of the country and specific time clustering during the study period. CONCLUSION: Childhood leukemia seems to cluster in space and time in some regions of Colombia suggesting a common etiologic factor or conditions to be studied.

Analysis of inpatients' characteristics and spatio-temporal distribution of liver cancer incidence in Wuwei, Gansu Province, from 1995 to 2016: A long-term span retrospective study.

This long-term span retrospective study aimed to determine the incidence and spatial-temporal trends of liver cancer in Wuwei city from 1995 to 2016 to provide scientific knowledge on the prevention and treatment of liver cancer.Data from the medical records of liver cancer patients treated in 12 sentinel hospitals in Wuwei city were extracted. SAS and Joinpoint software were used for data analysis, ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to make geographical distribution map, and SaTScan 9.4 software was used for clustering area detection.Of 2271 patients with liver cancer (average age, 58.73 years), 17.7% were 60 to 64 years of age. Majority were males (1680, 74%), with a sex ratio of 2.84. Joinpoint regression analysis from 1995 to 2016 revealed that the standardized liver cancer rate increased [annual average rate of change (AAPC) = 12.80% (95% CI: 9.5%-16.7%)], with a joinpoint in 2009. From 1995 to 2009, the change in overall APC was statistically significant [APC = 16.7 (95% CI: 12.3%-21.3%)]. The average incidence was the highest in Hongshagang Town. After 2005, the incidence gradually increased in each township. Five clusters of liver cancer were noted in Wuwei, including 37 townships.Males had a higher standardized liver cancer rate. After 2009, increase in the incidence of liver cancer was less rapid. The incidence of liver cancer in townships of Wuwei city was non-random, with certain spatial aggregations, covering 37 townships.

Spatial-Temporal Cluster Analysis of Childhood Cancer in California.

BACKGROUND: The observance of nonrandom space-time groupings of childhood cancer has been a concern of health professionals and the general public for decades. Many childhood cancers are suspected to have initiated in utero; therefore, we examined the spatial-temporal randomness of the birthplace of children who later developed cancer. METHODS: We performed a space-time cluster analysis using birth addresses of 5,896 cases and 23,369 population-based, age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-matched controls in California from 1997 to 2007, evaluating 20 types of childhood cancer and three a priori designated subgroups of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). We analyzed data using a newly designed semiparametric analysis program, ClustR, and a common algorithm, SaTScan. RESULTS: We observed evidence for nonrandom space-time clustering for ALL diagnosed at 2-6 years of age in the South San Francisco Bay Area (ClustR P = 0.04, SaTScan P = 0.07), and malignant gonadal germ cell tumors in a region of Los Angeles (ClustR P = 0.03, SaTScan P = 0.06). ClustR did not identify evidence of clustering for other childhood cancers, although SaTScan suggested some clustering for Hodgkin lymphoma (P = 0.09), astrocytoma (P = 0.06), and retinoblastoma (P = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence that childhood ALL diagnosed at 2-6 years and malignant gonadal germ cell tumors sporadically occurs in nonrandom space-time clusters. Further research is warranted to identify epidemiologic features that may inform the underlying etiology.

Adverse drug reactions due to opioid analgesic use in New South Wales, Australia: a spatial-temporal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pharmaceutical opioid analgesic use continues to rise and is associated with potentially preventable harm including hospitalisation for adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Spatial detection of opioid-related ADRs can inform future intervention strategies. We aimed to investigate the geographical disparity in hospitalised ADRs related to opioid analgesic use, and to evaluate the difference in patient characteristics between areas inside and outside the geographic clusters. METHODS: We used the all-inclusive Admitted Patient Dataset for an Australian state (New South Wales, NSW) to identify patients admitted for opioid-related ADRs over a 10-year period (July 2004 to June 2014). A space-time analysis was conducted using Kulldroff's scan statistics to identify statistically significant spatial clusters over time. Relative risk (RR) was computed with p-value based on Monte Carlo Simulation. Chi-square test was used to compare proportional difference in patient clustering. RESULTS: During the study period, we identified four statistically significant geographic clusters (RRs: 1.63-2.17) during 2004-08; and seven clusters (RRs: 1.23-1.69) during the period 2009-14. While identified high-risk clusters primarily covered areas with easier access to health services, those associated with socioeconomically disadvantaged areas and individuals with mental health disorders experienced more unmet healthcare needs for opioid analgesic safety than those from the rest of the State. Older people (≥65 years and over) accounted for 62.7% of the total study population and were more susceptible to opioid-related ADRs than younger people,. In the first five-year period the clusters included a greater proportion of people with cancer in contrast to the second five-year period in which there was a lesser proportion of people with cancer. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that there is significant spatial-temporal variation in opioid-related ADRs and future interventions should target vulnerable populations and high-risk geographical areas to improve safer use of pharmaceutical opioid analgesics.

Tumores renales pediátricos y su posible asociación con poblaciones endogámicas en el centro de Argentina / Pediatric renal tumors and their possible relation with endogamous populations in central Argentina

Introducción: Existen pocas investigaciones sobre factores de riesgo de tumores renales pediátricos. Objetivo: Caracterizar en detalle regiones geográficas de alta incidencia de tumores renales pediátricos en el centro de Argentina y su posible vinculación con factores de riesgo genéticos. Métodos: El área de estudio comprendió la provincia de Córdoba (Argentina). Se generó una base de datos de incidencia del cáncer renal infantil con información del Registro Provincial de Tumores. Se realizaron análisis de conglomerados espaciotemporales. En localidades dentro de los conglomerados, se llevaron a cabo entrevistas en profundidad a informantes claves. Resultados: Se registraron 56 casos de tumores renales pediátricos en el Registro en el periodo 2004-2013. Se detectó un conglomerado espacial significativo que abarca siete departamentos de la provincia. En esa región se concretaron seis entrevistas en profundidad a informantes claves. Los entrevistados resaltaron la mayor frecuencia de enfermedad genética de Sandhoff y las prácticas de endogamia (corroboradas en numerosos resultados científicos). A partir de estos datos se determinaron zonas de superposición de tumores renales y de la enfermedad de Sandhoff. Conclusiones: Se detectó una región particular de la provincia con alta frecuencia de tumores renales pediátricos y de la enfermedad de Sandhoff. Numerosos estudios científicos determinan que la endogamia es el factor de riesgo que aumenta la frecuencia de esta enfermedad en esta región. En futuras investigaciones se deberá corroborar si la endogamia también actúa aumentando la incidencia de tumores renales infantiles(AU)

Introduction: There is little research on risk factors of pediatric renal tumors. Objective: To characterize in detail the geographic regions of greatest incidence of pediatric renal tumors in central Argentina and exploring their possible link to genetic risk factors. Methods: The study area comprised the province of Córdoba (Argentina), and a database of pediatric renal tumors incidence was generated with information from the Provincial Tumor Registry. Analyses of spatio-temporal clusters were performed. In-depth interviews with key informants were carried out at localities within the conglomerates. Results: 56 cases of pediatric renal tumors were registered in the Provincial Registry of Tumors between 2004 and 2013. A significant spatial conglomerate was detected, covering seven districts of the province. In that region, six in-depth interviews were conducted with key informants. Interviewees highlighted the increased frequency of Sandhoff genetic disease and endogamous practices (corroborated in numerous scientific results). From these data, zones of overlap of renal tumors and of Sandhoff disease were determined. Conclusions: A particular region of the province was detected with high frequency of pediatric renal tumors and Sandhoff disease. Numerous scientific studies have determined that endogamy is the risk factor that increases the frequency of Sandhoff disease in this region. In future research, it should be confirmed whether it also acts by increasing the incidence of renal tumors in children(AU)

A Bayesian two-stage spatially dependent variable selection model for space-time health data.

In space-time epidemiological modeling, most studies have considered the overall variations in relative risk to better estimate the effects of risk factors on health outcomes. However, the associations between risk factors and health outcomes may vary across space and time. Especially, the temporal patterns of the covariate effects may depend on space. Thus, we propose a Bayesian two-stage spatially dependent variable selection approach for space-time health data to determine the spatially varying subsets of regression coefficients with common temporal dependence. The two-stage structure allows reduction of the spatial confounding bias in the estimates of the regression coefficients. A simulation study is conducted to examine the performance of the proposed two-stage model. We apply the proposed model to the number of inpatients with lung cancer in 159 counties of Georgia, USA.

Space-time clustering of childhood cancers: a systematic review and pooled analysis.

The aetiology of childhood cancers remains largely unknown. Space-time clustering of cases might imply an aetiological role of infections. We aimed to review the evidence of space-time clustering of specific childhood cancers. We searched Medline and Embase for population-based studies that covered a pre-defined study area, included cases under 20 years of age and were published before July 2016. We extracted all space-time clustering tests and calculated the proportion of positive tests per diagnostic group. In a pooled analysis, we performed a Knox test of the number of pairs of cases close to each other in time and space pooled across studies. 70 studies met our eligibility criteria, 32 of which reported Knox tests. For leukaemia, the proportion of positive tests was higher than expected by chance at both time of diagnosis (26%) and birth (11%). The pooled analysis showed strong evidence of clustering at diagnosis for children aged 0-5 years for a spatial and temporal lag of 5 km and 6 months, respectively (p < 0.001). The evidence was mixed for lymphoma and tumours of the central nervous system. The current study suggests that leukaemia cases cluster in space-time due to an aetiological factor affecting children under 5 years of age. The observed pattern of clustering of young children close to time of diagnosis is compatible with Greaves' delayed-infections-hypothesis.