Health care expenses impact on the disability-adjusted life years in non-communicable diseases in the European Union.

Background: Non-communicable diseases are a global health problem. The metric Disability-Adjusted Life Years was developed to measure its impact on health systems. This metric makes it possible to understand a disease's burden, towards defining healthcare policies. This research analysed the effect of healthcare expenditures in the evolution of disability-adjusted life years for non-communicable diseases in the European Union between 2000 and 2019. Methods: Data were collected for all 27 European Union countries from Global Burden of Disease 2019, Global Health Expenditure, and EUROSTAT databases. Econometric panel data models were used to assess the impact of healthcare expenses on the disability-adjusted life years. Only models with a coefficient of determination equal to or higher than 10% were analysed. Results: There was a decrease in the non-communicable diseases with the highest disability-adjusted life years: cardiovascular diseases (-2,952 years/105 inhabitants) and neoplasms (-618 years/105 inhabitants). Health expenditure significantly decreased disability-adjusted life years for all analysed diseases (p < 0.01) unless for musculoskeletal disorders. Private health expenditure did not show a significant effect on neurological and musculoskeletal disorders (p > 0.05) whereas public health expenditure did not significantly influence skin and subcutaneous diseases (p > 0.05). Conclusion: Health expenditure have proved to be effective in the reduction of several diseases. However, some categories such as musculoskeletal and mental disorders must be a priority for health policies in the future since, despite their low mortality, they can present high morbidity and disability.

Valuing burden of premature mortality attributable to air pollution in major million-plus non-attainment cities of India.

Accelerating growth due to industrialization and urbanization has improved the Indian economy but simultaneously has deteriorated human health, environment, and ecosystem. In the present study, the associated health risk mortality (age > 25) and welfare loss for the year 2017 due to excess PM2.5 concentration in ambient air for 31 major million-plus non-attainment cities (NACs) in India is assessed. The cities for the assessment are prioritised based on population and are classified as 'X' (> 5 million population) and 'Y' (1-5 million population) class cities. Ground-level PM2.5 concentration retrieved from air quality monitoring stations for the NACs ranged from 33 to 194 µg/m3. Total PM2.5 attributable premature mortality cases estimated using global exposure mortality model was 80,447 [95% CI 70,094-89,581]. Ischemic health disease was the leading cause of death accounting for 47% of total mortality, followed by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD-17%), stroke (14.7%), lower respiratory infection (LRI-9.9%) and lung cancer (LC-1.9%). 9.3% of total mortality is due to other non-communicable diseases (NCD-others). 7.3-18.4% of total premature mortality for the NACs is attributed to excess PM2.5 exposure. The total economic loss of 90,185.6 [95% CI 88,016.4-92,411] million US$ (as of 2017) was assessed due to PM2.5 mortality using the value of statistical life approach. The highest mortality (economic burden) share of 61.3% (72.7%) and 30.1% (42.7%) was reported for 'X' class cities and North India zone respectively. Compared to the base year 2017, an improvement of 1.01% and 0.7% is observed in premature mortality and economic loss respectively for the year 2024 as a result of policy intervention through National Clean Air Action Programme. The improvement among 31 NACs was found inconsistent, which may be due to a uniform targeted policy, which neglects other socio-economic factors such as population, the standard of living, etc. The study highlights the need for these parameters to be incorporated in the action plans to bring in a tailored solution for each NACs for better applicability and improved results of the programme facilitating solutions for the complex problem of air pollution in India.

Epidemiology, risk factors, social determinants of health, and current management for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in sub-Saharan Africa.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the leading cause of chronic liver disease globally and is estimated to affect approximately 25% of the world's population. Data about the prevalence and incidence of NAFLD in Africa are scarce, but the prevalence is estimated to be 13·5% for the general population. This is likely to be an underestimate considering the increasing burden of non-communicable diseases, particularly the rising prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes, driven by the overlapping challenges of food insecurity, nutritional transition, and associated increased consumption of calorie-dense foods. Establishing the true prevalence of NAFLD, raising public awareness around the risk factors behind the increase in NAFLD, and proactively addressing all components of metabolic syndrome will be important to combat this silent epidemic, which will have long-term health-care costs and economic consequences for the region.

Out-of-Pocket, Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Distress Financing on Non-Communicable Diseases in India: A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this systematic review is to determine pooled estimates of out-of-pocket (OOPE) and catastrophic health expenditure (CHE), correlates of CHE, and most common modes of distress financing on the treatment of selected non-communicable disease (cancer) among adults in India. METHODS: PubMed, Scopus and Embase were searched for eligible studies using strict inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data was extracted and pooled estimates using random effects model of meta-analysis were determined for different types of costs. Forest plots were created and heterogeneity among studies was checked. RESULTS: The pooled estimate of direct OOPE on inpatient and outpatient cancer care were 83396.07 INR (4405.96 USD) (95% CI = 44591.05-122202.0) and 2653.12 (140.17 USD) INR (95% CI = -251.28-5557.53), respectively, total direct OOPE was 47138.95 INR (2490.43 USD) (95% CI = 37589.43-56690.74), indirect OOPE was 11908.50 INR (629.15 USD) (95% CI=-5909.33-29726.31) and proportion of individuals facing CHE was 62.7%. However, high heterogeneity was observed among the studies. Savings, income, borrowing money and sale of assets were the most common modes of distress financing for cancer treatment. CONCLUSION: Income- and treatment-related cancer policies are needed to address the evidently high and unaffordable cancer treatment cost. Economic studies are needed for estimating all types of costs using standardised definitions and tools for precise estimates. Robust cancer database/registries and programs focusing on affordable cancer care can reduce the economic burden and prevent impoverishment.

Tackling the cancer burden: the economic impact of primary prevention policies.

Cancer is a noncommunicable disease (NCD) with increasing incidence and therefore constitutes a major public health issue. To reduce the health and economic burden of cancer, policy-makers across the world have implemented a range of preventative interventions targeting risk factors with a known link to the disease. In this article, we examine the impact of six primary prevention interventions - related to physical inactivity, unhealthy diet or harmful alcohol use - on cancer-related health outcomes and healthcare expenditure. Here, we used the OECD Strategic Public Health Planning for NCDs (SPHeP-NCDs) model to quantify outcomes and costs for each intervention for years 2020-2050 across 37 countries. Results from the model indicate that all interventions could lead to a reduction in the number of new cancer cases, in particular those targeting harmful alcohol consumption. Introducing an alcohol tax, for instance, is estimated to reduce related cancer cases by 5619 a year or 174 193 by 2050. A breakdown of results by type of cancer revealed interventions had the largest impact on colorectal cancer with, on average, 41 140 cases avoided per intervention by 2050. In proportional terms, interventions had the greatest impact on new oesophageal and liver cancers. Findings from this article are designed to assist decision-makers efficiently allocate limited resources to meet public health objectives.

The economic burden of non-communicable disease mortality in the South Pacific: Evidence from Fiji.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have emerged as one of the major endemics in Fiji which is responsible for more than 80 percent of deaths annually. In this study, we estimate the economic burden of non-communicable disease mortality in Fiji. The specific impact of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and cancer-related mortality on Fiji's output is also investigated using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds tests approach to cointegration. The data used is compiled from Fiji Ministry of Health and Medical Services and World Health Organization's Mortality database. Overall, the study finds that NCD mortality rate together with cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and cancer have a significant negative effect on output per capita of Fiji between 1972 and 2016. A one percentage point increase in NCD-mortality rate reduced output per capita by 0.012 percent. In addition, a percentage point increase in the mortality rates of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and cancer decreased output per capita by 0.018, 0.01, 0.031, and 0.035 percent, respectively. The findings conclude that NCD poses significant economic burden in Fiji and recommend policy innovations in lessening the high risk of NCD among the Fijian population.

Self-Reported Prevalence of Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases in Relation to Socioeconomic and Educational Factors in Colombia: A Community-Based Study in 11 Departments.

Background: Chronic non-communicable diseases are prevalent conditions in developing countries, such as Colombia. Several socioeconomic and educational factors have been associated with these pathologies. However, there is little country-specific information regarding the self-reported prevalence of chronic diseases and their association with the aforementioned factors in Colombia. Objectives: To evaluate the current situation of chronic non-transmissible diseases in Colombia by self-report and to analyze its potential relationship with sociodemographic, economic and educational factors. Methods: This is a cross-sectional baseline sub-analysis from the prospective, standardized collaborative PURE study in Colombia. Participants were recruited between 2005 to 2009, in 11 departments of the country, and included 7,485 subjects of 35 to 70 years old. Questionnaires of self-reported chronic non-communicable diseases, and demographic, socioeconomic and educational variables were applied. Results: Hypertension was the most prevalent chronic condition reported with a prevalence of 22.2% (21.2%-23.1%, 95% CI), followed by diabetes with a prevalence of 5.7% (5.1%-6.2%, 95% CI), asthma 2.7% (2.2%-3.0%, 95% CI), coronary heart disease 2.4% (2.0%-2.7%, 95% CI), stroke and heart failure 1.5% (1.2%-1.8%, 95% CI) each, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 1.2% (0.6%-1.5%, 95% CI), and cancer 1.2% (1.0%-1.5%, 95% CI). Among the study sample, 23.3% (22.4%-24.3%, 95% CI) reported having one chronic NCDs, and 6.4% (5.9%-7.0%, 95% CI) reported having multiple chronic NCDs. The prevalence of multiple NCDs increased significantly with age, was more common in those from households with higher income, whereas it was significantly lower in persons with high education.The central and central-east regions of the country are those with the higher prevalence of self-reported NCDs. Conclusion: The results of the current study indicate the presence of socioeconomic and educational inequalities in the distribution of chronic NCDs in the Colombian population.

Integrated screening and treatment services for HIV, hypertension and diabetes in Kenya: assessing the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness from a national and regional perspective.

INTRODUCTION: As people with HIV age, prevention and management of other communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) will become increasingly important. Integration of screening and treatment for HIV and NCDs is a promising approach for addressing the dual burden of these diseases. The aim of this study was to assess the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of a community-wide integrated programme for screening and treatment of HIV, hypertension and diabetes in Kenya. METHODS: Coupling a microsimulation of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) with a population-based model of HIV dynamics (the Spectrum), we created a hybrid HIV/CVD model. Interventions were modelled from year 2019 (baseline) to 2023, and population was followed to 2033. Analyses were carried at a national level and for three selected regions (Nairobi, Coast and Central). RESULTS: At a national level, the model projected 7.62 million individuals living with untreated hypertension, 692,000 with untreated diabetes and 592,000 individuals in need of ART in year 2018. Improving ART coverage from 68% at baseline to 88% in 2033 reduced HIV incidence by an estimated 64%. Providing NCD treatment to 50% of diagnosed cases from 2019 to 2023 and maintaining them on treatment afterwards could avert 116,000 CVD events and 43,600 CVD deaths in Kenya over the next 15 years. At a regional level, the estimated impact of expanded HIV services was highest in Nairobi region (averting 42,100 HIV infections compared to baseline) while Central region experienced the highest impact of expanded NCD treatment (with a reduction of 22,200 CVD events). The integrated HIV/NCD intervention could avert 7.76 million disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) over 15 years at an estimated cost of $6.68 billion ($445.27 million per year), or $860.30 per DALY averted. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of $2,010 per DALY averted, the probability of cost-effectiveness was 0.92, ranging from 0.71 in Central to 0.92 in Nairobi region. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated screening and treatment of HIV and NCDs can be a cost-effective and impactful approach to save lives of people with HIV in Kenya, although important variation exists at the regional level. Containing the substantial costs required for scale-up will be critical for management of HIV and NCDs on a national scale.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of integrating screening and treatment of selected non-communicable diseases into HIV/AIDS treatment in Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: Despite growing enthusiasm for integrating treatment of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) into human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care and treatment services in sub-Saharan Africa, there is little evidence on the potential health and financial consequences of such integration. We aim to study the cost-effectiveness of basic NCD-HIV integration in a Ugandan setting. METHODS: We developed an epidemiologic-cost model to analyze, from the provider perspective, the cost-effectiveness of integrating hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM) and high cholesterol screening and treatment for people living with HIV (PLWH) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Uganda. We utilized cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimations drawing from the previously established Globorisk model and systematic reviews; HIV and NCD risk factor prevalence from the World Health Organization's STEPwise approach to Surveillance survey and global databases; and cost data from national drug price lists, expert consultation and the literature. Averted CVD cases and corresponding disability-adjusted life years were estimated over 10 subsequent years along with incremental cost-effectiveness of the integration. RESULTS: Integrating services for hypertension, DM, and high cholesterol among ART patients in Uganda was associated with a mean decrease of the 10-year risk of a CVD event: from 8.2 to 6.6% in older PLWH women (absolute risk reduction of 1.6%), and from 10.7 to 9.5% in older PLWH men (absolute risk reduction of 1.2%), respectively. Integration would yield estimated net costs between $1,400 and $3,250 per disability-adjusted life year averted among older ART patients. CONCLUSIONS: Providing services for hypertension, DM and high cholesterol for Ugandan ART patients would reduce the overall CVD risk among these patients; it would amount to about 2.4% of national HIV/AIDS expenditure, and would present a cost-effectiveness comparable to other standalone interventions to address NCDs in low- and middle-income country settings.

Experiences from the pilot implementation of the Package of Essential Non-communicable Disease Interventions (PEN) in Myanmar, 2017-18: A mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Myanmar adopted the World Health Organization (WHO) Package for Essential Non-Communicable Disease Interventions (PEN) in 20 pilot townships in 2017. This study was conducted to assess the implementation of PEN, its effectiveness and understand the facilitators and barriers in its implementation. METHODS: Mixed methods design involving a quantitative component (retrospective study analysing both aggregate and individual patient data from PEN project records; cross-sectional facility survey using a structured checklist) and a descriptive qualitative component. RESULTS: A total of 152,446 individuals were screened between May 2017-December 2018 comprising of current smokers (17.5%), tobacco chewers (26.3%), Body Mass Index ≥25 kg/m2 (30.6%), raised blood pressure i.e. ≥ 140/90 mmHg (35.2%) and raised blood sugar i.e. Random Blood Sugar >200 mg/dl, Fasting Blood Sugar >126 mg/dl (17.1%). Nearly 14.8% of those screened had Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk score ≥20%, 34.6% had CVD risk not recorded. Of 663 patients registered with diabetes and/or hypertension in 05 townships, 27 (4.1%) patients made three follow-up visits after the baseline visit, of whom, CVD risk assessment, systolic blood pressure and blood sugar measurement was done in all visits in 89.0%, 100.0% and 78.0% of cases respectively. Health facility assessment showed 64% of the sanctioned posts were filled; 90% of those appointed been trained in PEN; key essential medicines for PEN were available in half of the facilities surveyed. Confidence of the health care staff in managing common NCD and perceived benefits of the project were some of the strengths. CONCLUSION: High loss to follow up, poor recording of CVD risk score, lack of essential medicines and equipments were the key challenges identified that need to be addressed before further expansion of PEN project to other townships.

Introducing the PLOS special collection of economic cases for NCD prevention and control: A global perspective.

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), such as heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease, are responsible for seven out of every 10 deaths worldwide. While NCDs are associated with aging in high-income countries, this representation is often misleading. Over one-third of the 41 million annual deaths from NCDs occur prematurely, defined as under 70 years of age. Most of those deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where surveillance, treatment, and care of NCDs are often inadequate. In addition to high health and social costs, the economic costs imposed by such high numbers of excess early deaths impede economic development and contribute to global and national inequity. In higher-income countries, NCDs and their risks continue to push health care costs higher. The burden of NCDs is strongly intertwined with economic conditions for good and for harm. Understanding the multiple ways they are connected-through risk factor exposures, access to quality health care, and financial protection among others-will determine which countries are able to improve the healthy longevity of their populations and slow growth in health expenditure particularly in the face of aging populations. The aim of this Special Collection is to provide new evidence to spur those actions.

Health Care Costs and Savings Associated with Increased Dairy Consumption among Adults in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study is to estimate the impact on health care costs if United States (US) adults increased their dairy consumption to meet Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) recommendations. METHODS: Risk estimates from recent meta-analyses quantifying the association between dairy consumption and health outcomes were combined with the increase in dairy consumption under two scenarios where population mean dairy intakes from the 2015-2016 What We Eat in America were increased to meet the DGA recommendations: (1) according to proportions by type as specified in US Department of Agriculture Food Intake Patterns and (2) assuming the consumption of a single dairy type. The resulting change in risk was combined with published data on annual health care costs to estimate impact on costs. Health care costs were adjusted to account for potential double counting due to overlapping comorbidities of the health outcomes included. RESULTS: Total dairy consumption among adults in the US was 1.49 cup-equivalents per day (c-eq/day), requiring an increase of 1.51 c-eq/day to meet the DGA recommendation. Annual cost savings of $12.5 billion (B) (range of $2.0B to $25.6B) were estimated based on total dairy consumption resulting from a reduction in stroke, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and colorectal cancer and an increased risk of Parkinson's disease and prostate cancer. Similar annual cost savings were estimated for an increase in low-fat dairy consumption ($14.1B; range of $0.8B to $27.9B). Among dairy sub-types, an increase of approximately 0.5 c-eq/day of yogurt consumption alone to help meet the DGA recommendations resulted in the highest annual cost savings of $32.5B (range of $16.5B to $52.8B), mostly driven by a reduction in type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Adoption of a dietary pattern with increased dairy consumption among adults in the US to meet DGA recommendations has the potential to provide billions of dollars in savings.

Replication and expansion of epigenome-wide association literature in a black South African population.

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation is associated with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and related traits. Methylation data on continental African ancestries are currently scarce, even though there are known genetic and epigenetic differences between ancestral groups and a high burden of NCDs in Africans. Furthermore, the degree to which current literature can be extrapolated to the understudied African populations, who have limited resources to conduct independent large-scale analysis, is not yet known. To this end, this study examines the reproducibility of previously published epigenome-wide association studies of DNA methylation conducted in different ethinicities, on factors related to NCDs, by replicating findings in 120 South African Batswana men aged 45 to 88 years. In addition, novel associations between methylation and NCD-related factors are investigated using the Illumina EPIC BeadChip. RESULTS: Up to 86% of previously identified epigenome-wide associations with NCD-related traits (alcohol consumption, smoking, body mass index, waist circumference, C-reactive protein, blood lipids and age) overlapped with those observed here and a further 13% were directionally consistent. Only 1% of the replicated associations presented with effects opposite to findings in other ancestral groups. The majority of these inconcistencies were associated with population-specific genomic variance. In addition, we identified eight new 450K array CpG associations not previously reported in other ancestries, and 11 novel EPIC CpG associations with alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: The successful replication of existing EWAS findings in this African population demonstrates that blood-based 450K EWAS findings from commonly investigated ancestries can largely be extrapolated to ethnicities for which epigenetic data are not yet available. Possible population-specific differences in 14% of the tested associations do, however, motivate the need to include a diversity of ethnic groups in future epigenetic research. The novel associations found with the enhanced coverage of the Illumina EPIC array support its usefulness to expand epigenetic literature.

The Relative Effects of Economic Growth, Environmental Pollution and Non-Communicable Diseases on Health Expenditures in European Union Countries.

National and global health policies are increasingly recognizing the key role of the environment in human health development, which is related to its economic and social determinants, such as income level, technical progress, education, quality of jobs, inequality, education or lifestyle. Research has shown that the increase of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita can provide additional funds for health but also for environmental protection. However, often, economic growth is associated with the accelerated degradation of the environment, and this in turn will result in an exponential increase in harmful emissions and will implicitly determine the increasing occurrence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), mainly cardiovascular diseases, cancers and respiratory diseases. In this paper, we investigate the role and effects of economic growth, environmental pollution and non-communicable diseases on health expenditures, for the case of EU (European Union) countries during 2000-2014. In order to investigate the long-term and the short-term relationship between them, we have employed the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. Using the Pedroni-Johansen cointegration methods, we found that the variables are cointegrated. The findings of this study show that economic growth is one of the most important factors influencing the health expenditures both in the long- and short-run in all the 28 EU countries. With regards to the influence of CO2 emissions on health expenditure, we have found a negative impact in the short-run and a positive impact on the long-run. We have also introduced an interaction between NCDs and environmental expenditure as independent variable, a product variable. Finally, we have found that in all the three estimated models, the variation in environmental expenditure produces changes in NCDs' effect on health expenditure.

Noncommunicable Diseases Attributable To Tobacco Use In China: Macroeconomic Burden And Tobacco Control Policies.

Smoking causes health problems for individuals and imposes a sizable macroeconomic burden on countries. As the world's leading tobacco producer and consumer, China is at the epicenter of this health crisis. However, no studies have examined the macroeconomic burden of all relevant noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to tobacco or secondhand smoke exposure. We assessed how tobacco-attributable NCDs affect China's productive capacity and estimated that these diseases would impose a total cost of 16.7 trillion yuan (US$2.3 trillion, in constant 2018 prices) in the period 2015-30, which corresponds to an annual tax of 0.9 percent on aggregate income. Secondhand smoke exposure accounts for 14 percent of the burden. If China raised the tax on cigarettes to 75 percent of their retail price and implemented wide-ranging tobacco-control policies, the Chinese economy could save 7.1 trillion yuan (US$1.0 trillion) for 2015-30-the equivalent of adding a 0.4 percent dividend annually.

The economic cost of preventable disease in Australia: a systematic review of estimates and methods.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this literature review was to establish the economic burden of preventable disease in Australia in terms of attributable health care costs, other costs to government and reduced productivity. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted to establish the economic cost of preventable disease in Australia and ascertain the methods used to derive these estimates. Nine databases and the grey literature were searched, limited to the past 10 years, and the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) guidelines were followed to identify, screen and report on eligible studies. RESULTS: Eighteen studies were included. There were at least three studies examining the attributable costs and economic impact for each risk factor. The greatest costs were related to the productivity impacts of preventable risk factors. Estimates of the annual productivity loss that could be attributed to individual risk factors were between $840 million and $14.9 billion for obesity; up to $10.5 billion due to tobacco; between $1.1 billion and $6.8 billion for excess alcohol consumption; up to $15.6 billion due to physical inactivity and $561 million for individual dietary risk factors. Productivity impacts were included in 15 studies and the human capital approach was the method most often employed (14 studies) to calculate this. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial economic burden is caused by lifestyle-related risk factors. Implications for public health: The significant economic burden associated with preventable disease provides an economic rationale for action to reduce the prevalence of lifestyle-related risk factors. New analysis of the economic burden of multiple risk factors concurrently is needed.

The macroeconomic burden of noncommunicable diseases associated with air pollution in China.

BACKGROUND: While a few studies have tried to estimate the economic burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) associated with air pollution, most previous studies have methodological limitations. For example, neither the cost of illness approach nor the value of a statistical life approach accounts for economic adjustment mechanisms (i.e., they do not include substitution of labor lost due to an illness with capital or other workers), and neither approach considers disease impact on physical and human capital. Furthermore, since new evidence shows that air pollution is also linked to diabetes, previous studies did not estimate the economic costs of diabetes associated with air pollution. The total economic costs of NCDs associated with air pollution under a comprehensive framework therefore remained unexplored. OBJECTIVES: This study uses a human capital-augmented production function framework to analyze and estimate the macroeconomic impact of NCDs associated with air pollution in China in 1990-2030 and in 2015-2030. It makes several contributions-beyond those of the extant literature-to understanding the economic burden of NCDs associated with air pollution. It does this by accounting for economic adjustment mechanisms and by incorporating human capital into the model. METHODS: In our framework, aggregate output is produced according to a human capital-augmented production function that accounts for the effects of projected disease prevalence. NCDs associated with air pollution affect the aggregate output through three pathways: 1) Mortality effect-when working-age individuals die from a disease, aggregate output decreases because physical capital is an imperfect substitute for the loss of human capital in the production process. 2) Morbidity effect-when working-age individuals suffer from a disease but do not die from it, their contribution to overall output also decreases depending on disease severity; for example, they might work fewer hours or with lower productivity, or they might retire earlier. We also incorporate age-specific human capital to account for education-related productivity differences between members of different cohorts who are differentially affected by NCDs. 3) Treatment cost effect-when households in which members suffer from a disease use part of their savings to cover the out-of-pocket share of their treatment costs, physical capital accumulation diminishes. Our estimates are based on the recently updated Global Burden of Disease epidemiology data, which identify four pathways through which air pollution affects health: cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, cancer, and diabetes. RESULTS: Total losses from NCDs associated with air pollution in China in 1990-2030 are estimated to be $1,137 billion (constant 2010 USD) and in 2015-2030 are estimated to be $499 billion (constant 2010 USD). Cardiovascular diseases account for the highest burden, followed by chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, and cancer. Treatment costs account for nearly 30% of the total economic burden of NCDs associated with air pollution. We also find that the share of economic burden associated with treatment costs is highest for diabetes. This is mainly driven by the fact that, on a per case basis, diabetes has a lower health burden than other diseases associated with air pollution. DISCUSSION: The NCDs associated with air pollution impose a large economic burden on China.

The short-term effect of BMI, alcohol use, and related chronic conditions on labour market outcomes: A time-lag panel analysis utilizing European SHARE dataset.

INTRODUCTION: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) like cancer, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes have spread at a remarkable pace in European countries over the past decades. Overweight/obesity and alcohol use are two leading risk factors contributing to both economic and epidemiological burden associated with NCDs. In OECD countries, the impact of indirect costs of obesity varies between 0.20% and 1.21% of GDP. Indirect costs of alcohol use range from 0.19% (Portugal) to 1.6% (Estonia) of GDP. AIM: To assess the longitudinal impact of alcohol use and high body-mass index (BMI) on labour market outcomes in the European region by modeling the direct effect of high BMI and alcohol use, and the effect via associated diseases. METHODS: The impact of BMI, alcohol use, and associated diseases on employment likelihood, intent to retire early, days of absenteeism, and hours of work per week, were modelled via lagged Poisson and Zero-inflated Poisson regressions, adjusting for missingness via inverse probability weighting, as appropriate, using European SHARE data. RESULTS: Controlling for other chronic conditions, being overweight increases employment likelihood among men, but not among women. Obesity decreased female, but not male, employment chances. All chronic conditions linked with high BMI negatively affected employment likelihood, and increased the intention to retire early significantly. Alcohol use positively affects employment likelihood in women at all drinking levels relative to lifetime abstainers, but only in moderate (not heavy) male drinkers. There is super-additionality of impact of NCDs on absenteeism and hours worked, presenting a key economic argument to tackle NCD prevention and compression of morbidity. IMPLICATIONS: NCD prevention is not just important for employment and hours worked, but also for employee morale, especially given increasing retirement age in Europe and globally.

World Trade Organization membership and changes in noncommunicable disease risk factors: a comparative interrupted time-series analysis, 1980-2013.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the availability of several commodities with both harmful and protective effects for the development of noncommunicable diseases. METHODS: We used a natural experiment design to compare trends in the domestic supply of tobacco, alcohol and seven food groups, between 1980 and 2013, in 21 countries or territories joining WTO after 1995 and 26 non-member countries, using propensity score weights. We applied a comparative interrupted time-series framework, by using multivariate random-effects linear models, adjusted for gross domestic product per capita, the percentages of urban population and female labour force participation. In the tobacco model, we controlled for Member States that had ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and in the alcohol model, the percentage of the population identifying themselves as Muslim. FINDINGS: Following accession to WTO, member states experienced immediate increases in the domestic supply of fruits and vegetables of 55 g per person per day on average, compared to non-member countries. The analysis showed gradual increases in the geometric mean of the supply of tobacco and alcohol of 6.2% and 3.6% per year, respectively. We did not detect any significant changes in the availability of red meats and animal fats; seafood; nuts, seeds and legumes; starches; or edible oils; and results for sugars were inconsistent across model variations. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that WTO membership may lead to increases in both harmful and protective factors for noncommunicable disease, but further exploration of country-specific variation is warranted.