Use of quantitative bias analysis to evaluate single-arm trials with real-world data external controls.

PURPOSE: Use of real-world data (RWD) for external controls added to single-arm trials (SAT) is increasingly prevalent in regulatory submissions. Due to inherent differences in the data-generating mechanisms, biases can arise. This paper aims to illustrate how to use quantitative bias analysis (QBA). METHODS: Advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) serves as an example, where many small subsets of patients with molecular tumor subtypes exist. First, some sources of bias that may occur in oncology when comparing RWD to SAT are described. Second, using a hypothetical immunotherapy agent, a dataset is simulated based on expert input for survival analysis of advanced NSCLC. Finally, we illustrate the impact of three biases: missing confounder, misclassification of exposure, and outcome evaluation. RESULTS: For each simulated scenario, bias was induced by removing or adding data; hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated applying conventional analyses. Estimating the bias-adjusted treatment effect and uncertainty required carefully selecting the bias model and bias factors. Although the magnitude of each biased and bias-adjusted HR appeared moderate in all three hypothetical scenarios, the direction of bias was variable. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that QBA can provide an intuitive framework for bias analysis, providing a key means of challenging assumptions about the evidence. However, the accuracy of bias analysis is itself dependent on correct specification of the bias model and bias factors. Ultimately, study design should reduce bias, but QBA allows us to evaluate the impact of unavoidable bias to assess the quality of the evidence.

Glucagon-like peptide-1 class drugs show clear protective effects in Parkinson's and Alzheimer's disease clinical trials: A revolution in the making?

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a complex syndrome for which there is no disease-modifying treatment on the market. However, a group of drugs from the Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) class have shown impressive improvements in clinical phase II trials. Exendin-4 (Bydureon), Liraglutide (Victoza, Saxenda) and Lixisenatide (Adlyxin), drugs that are on the market as treatments for diabetes, have shown clear effects in improving motor activity in patients with PD in phase II clinical trials. In addition, Liraglutide has shown improvement in cognition and brain shrinkage in a phase II trial in patients with Alzheimer disease (AD). Two phase III trials testing the GLP-1 drug semaglutide (Wegovy, Ozempic, Rybelsus) are ongoing. This perspective article will summarize the clinical results obtained so far in this novel research area. We are at a crossroads where GLP-1 class drugs are emerging as a new treatment strategy for PD and for AD. Newer drugs that have been designed to enter the brain easier are being developed already show improved effects in preclinical studies compared with the older GLP-1 class drugs that had been developed to treat diabetes. The future looks bright for new treatments for AD and PD.

Master protocols and other innovative trial designs in inflammation and immunology to expedite clinical drug development.

Master protocol designs, such as umbrella and basket studies, allow multiple compounds or multiple target populations to be evaluated simultaneously within a single protocol, and have been widely adopted in oncology clinical trials. These novel designs can also be applied in other therapeutic areas, where they could have several benefits over conducting traditional randomized controlled trials. Here, we detail Pfizer's recent implementations of master protocol designs in inflammation and immunology clinical studies, focusing on the opportunities for cost and resource savings and how these designs can expedite the time required to bring new treatments to patients in need.

Round Table Discussion on Optimal Clinical Trial Design in Precursor Multiple Myeloma.

SUMMARY: While the current approach to precursor hematologic conditions is to "watch and wait," this may change with the development of therapies that are safe and extend survival or delay the onset of symptomatic disease. The goal of future therapies in precursor hematologic conditions is to improve survival and prevent or delay the development of symptomatic disease while maximizing safety. Clinical trial considerations in this field include identifying an appropriate at-risk population, safety assessments, dose selection, primary and secondary trial endpoints including surrogate endpoints, control arms, and quality-of-life metrics, all of which may enable more precise benefit-risk assessment.

Cautionary note on regional consistency evaluation in multiregional clinical trials with binary outcomes.

Multiregional clinical trials (MRCTs) have become increasingly common during the development of new drugs to obtain simultaneous drug approvals worldwide. When planning MRCTs, a major statistical challenge is determination of the regional sample size. In general, the regional sample size must be determined as the sample size such that the regional consistency probability, defined as the probability of meeting the regional consistency criterion, is greater than a prespecified value. The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare proposed two criteria for regional consistency. Moreover, many researchers have proposed corresponding closed-form formulas for calculating regional consistency probabilities when the primary outcome is continuous. Although some researchers have argued that those formulas are also applicable to cases with binary outcomes, it remains questionable whether such an argument can be true. Based on simulation results, we demonstrate that the existing formulas are inappropriate for binary cases, even when the regional sample size is sufficiently large. To address this issue, we develop alternative formulas and use simulation to show that they provide accurate regional consistency probabilities. Furthermore, we present an application of our proposed formulas for an MRCT of advanced or metastatic clear-cell renal cell carcinoma.

Eficácia da ivermectina e atazanavir no tempo de recuperação dos sintomas de covid-19: uma coorte prospectiva / Effectiveness of ivermectin and atazanavir on time to resolution from covid-19 symptoms: a prospective cohort / Eficacia de ivermectina y atazanavir en el tiempo hasta lá resolución de los síntomas de covid-19: una cohorte prospectiva

Objetivo: avaliar a eficácia da Ivermectina e do Atazanavir em comparação com placebo no tempo de resolução dos sintomas e no tempo de duração da doença por COVID-19. Método: estudo observacional, de coorte prospectivo, longitudinal, descritivo e analítico com pacientes sintomáticos ambulatoriais, acompanhados por 06 meses em duas Unidades Básicas de Saúde para atendimento de COVID-19 em Teresina- Piauí, Brasil, no período de novembro a abril de 2021 identificados por amostragem aleatória 1:1:1. Foram realizados exames Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) para confirmação laboratorial da suspeita de infecção pelo novo coronavírus e avaliação sociodemográfica e clínica. Resultados: dos 87 pacientes randomizados, 62,1% (n=54) eram do sexo masculino, com média de idade de 35,1 anos, possuíam companheira (53,9%), baixa renda (50,6%), eutróficos (40,7%) e sem comorbidades de saúde (78,2%). Não houve diferença entre o tempo médio para resolução dos sintomas, que foi de 21 dias (IQR, 8-30) no grupo atazanavir, 30 dias (IQR, 5-90) no grupo ivermectina em comparação com 14 dias (IQR, 9-21) no grupo controle. No dia 180, houve resolução dos sintomas em 100% no grupo placebo, 93,9% no grupo atazanavir e 95% no grupo ivermectina. A duração mediana da doença foi de 08 dias em todos os braços do estudo. Conclusão: o tratamento com atazanavir (6 dias) e ivermectina (3 dias) não reduziu o tempo de resolução dos sintomas e nem o tempo de duração da doença entre os pacientes ambulatoriais com COVID-19 leve em comparação com o grupo placebo. Os resultados não suportam o uso de ivermectina e atazanavir para tratamento de COVID-19 leve a moderado.

Objective: to evaluate the effectiveness of Ivermectin and Atazanavir compared to placebo in the time to resolution of symptoms and duration of illness due to COVID-19. Method: observational, prospective, longitudinal, descriptive and analytical cohort study with symptomatic outpatients, followed for 06 months in two Basic Health Units for COVID-19 care in Teresina-Piauí, Brazil, from November to April 2021 identified by 1:1:1 random sampling. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests were performed for laboratory confirmation of suspected infection with the new coronavirus and sociodemographic and clinical evaluation. Results: of the 87 randomized patients, 62.1% (n=54) were male, with a mean age of 35.1 years, had a partner (53.9%), low income (50.6%), eutrophic (40.7%) and without health comorbidities (78.2%). There was no difference between the median time to resolution of symptoms, which was 21 days (IQR, 8-30) in the atazanavir group, 30 days (IQR, 5- 90) in the ivermectin group compared with 14 days (IQR, 9- 21) in the control group. At day 180, there was resolution of symptoms in 100% in the placebo group, 93.9% in the atazanavir group, and 95% in the ivermectin group. The median duration of illness was 8 days in all study arms. Conclusion: Treatment with atazanavir (6 days) and ivermectin (3 days) did not reduce the time to symptom resolution or the duration of illness among outpatients with mild COVID-19 compared to the placebo group. The results do not support the use of ivermectin and atazanavir for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19.

Objetivo: evaluar la efectividad de Ivermectina y Atazanavir en comparación con placebo en el tiempo de resolución de los síntomas y duración de la enfermedad por COVID-19. Método: estudio de cohorte observacional, prospectivo, longitudinal, descriptivo y analítico con pacientes ambulatorios sintomáticos, seguidos durante 06 meses en dos Unidades Básicas de Salud para atención de COVID-19 en Teresina-Piauí, Brasil, de noviembre a abril de 2021 identificados por 1:1:1 muestreo aleatorio. Se realizaron pruebas de reacción en cadena de la polimerasa con transcriptasa inversa (RT-PCR) para confirmación de laboratorio de sospecha de infección por el nuevo coronavirus y evaluación sociodemográfica y clínica. Resultados: de los 87 pacientes aleatorizados, 62,1% (n=54) eran del sexo masculino, con una edad media de 35,1 años, tenían pareja (53,9%), bajos ingresos (50,6%), eutróficos (40,7%) y sin comorbilidades de salud (78,2%). No hubo diferencia entre la mediana de tiempo hasta la resolución de los síntomas, que fue de 21 días (RIC, 8-30) en el grupo de atazanavir, 30 días (RIC, 5- 90) en el grupo de ivermectina en comparación con 14 días (RIC, 9 - 21) en el grupo control. En el día 180, hubo una resolución de los síntomas del 100 % en el grupo de placebo, del 93,9 % en el grupo de atazanavir y del 95 % en el grupo de ivermectina. La mediana de duración de la enfermedad fue de 8 días en todos los brazos del estudio. Conclusión: El tratamiento con atazanavir (6 días) e ivermectina (3 días) no redujo el tiempo de resolución de los síntomas ni la duración de la enfermedad entre los pacientes ambulatorios con COVID-19 leve en comparación con el grupo placebo. Los resultados no respaldan el uso de ivermectina y atazanavir para el tratamiento de la COVID-19 de leve a moderada.

Placenta prévia: um estudo baseado nas teorias de enfermagem / Placenta previa: a study based on nursing theories / Placenta previa: un estudio basado en las teorías de enfermería

Introdução: A gestação, apesar de ser um processo fisiológico na saúde da mulher, é uma etapa complexa que exige atenção diferenciada na assistência à saúde. Outrossim, existem algumas condições que provocam danos durante essa fase, como a placenta prévia. Objetivo: Este estudo tem como escopo evidenciar o processo de enfermagem frente à assistência à gestante com tal diagnóstico. Metodologia: A pesquisa tem caráter qualitativo, teórico com subsídio na bibliografia científica, envolvendo a compreensão holística e integral da paciente para a implementação de estratégia para o processo de enfermagem. A partir do estudo das teorias e da fisiopatologia e impactos clínicos, empregou-se as taxonomias do NANDA-I para traçar os diagnósticos de enfermagens mais condizentes. Resultados: Foram identificados 15 diagnósticos que contemplaram os dez domínios encontrados no NANDA. Considerações Finais: Os dados eleitos e o confronto com a literatura enfatizam a relevância positiva na prescrição de diagnósticos de enfermagem na escolha dos cuidados prestados e as teorias subsidiam a assistência materno-fetal.

Introduction: Pregnancy, despite being a physiological process in women's health, is a complex stage that requires special attention in health care. Also, there are some conditions that cause damage during this phase, such as placenta previa. Objective: The purpose of this study is to highlight the nursing process regarding care for pregnant women with such a diagnosis. Methodology: The research is qualitative, theoretical with support in the scientific bibliography, involving the patients holistic and integral understanding for the implementation of a strategy for the nursing process. Based on the study of theories and pathophysiology and clinical impacts, the NANDA-I taxonomies were used to outline the most consistent nursing diagnoses. Results: 15 diagnoses were identified that included the ten domains found in NANDA. Final Considerations: The chosen data and the confrontation with the literature emphasize the positive relevance in the prescription of nursing diagnoses in the choice of care provided and the theories subsidize maternal-fetal assistance.

Introducción: El embarazo, a pesar de ser un proceso fisiológico en la salud de la mujer, es una etapa compleja que requiere especial atención en el cuidado de la salud. Además, existen algunas condiciones que causan daños durante esta fase, como la placenta previa. Objetivo: El propósito de este estudio es resaltar el proceso de enfermería en relación con la atención a las gestantes con dicho diagnóstico. Metodología: La investigación es cualitativa, teórica con apoyo en la bibliografía científica, involucrando la comprensión holística e integral de las pacientes para la implementación de una estrategia para el proceso de enfermería. Con base en el estudio de teorías y fisiopatología e impactos clínicos, se utilizaron las taxonomías NANDA-I para delinear los diagnósticos de enfermería más consistentes. Resultados: Se identificaron 15 diagnósticos que incluían los diez dominios encontrados en la NANDA. Consideraciones finales: Los datos escogidos y la confrontación con la literatura enfatizan la relevancia positiva en la prescripción de los diagnósticos de enfermería en la elección de los cuidados prestados y las teorías subsidian la asistencia materno-fetal.

Microencapsulação de enterocina e oleo de oregano em leitelho / Microencapsulation of the enterocin and essential oil oregano in buttermilk / Microencapsulación de enterocina y aceite esencial de orégano en suero de leche

A pesquisa busca técnicas alternativas para expansão da vida de prateleira dos alimentos, isto tem impulsionado estudos sobre a utilização de conservantes naturais, tais como as bacteriocinas e óleos essenciais, que são considerados agentes antimicrobianos naturais. No entanto estes antimicrobianos naturais, não são adicionados diretamente em produtos alimentícios, devido a alterações sensoriais e em suas características físico e química. Com avanço tecnológico da microencapsulação, tem sido um potencial em fornecer sistemas que garantem estabilidade para os antimicrobianos naturais desta forma podendo compor a matriz de alimentos. Portanto, o objetivo desse trabalho foi microencapsular a enterocina produzida por Enterococcus durans MF5 e óleo de orégano usando leitelho. Para a microencapsulação, foram realizados três tratamentos: T1 controle leitelho, T2 leitelho/enterocina (LE), e T3 leitelho/enterocina/óleo (LEO). O material foi submetido ao processo de spray dryer e foram realizados ensaios para determinar a atividade antimicrobiana do material encapsulado contra as bactérias Listeria monocytogenes, Listeria innocua e Listeria ivanovi. O rendimento da microencapsulação foi de 13,01% e 11,63% para LE e LEO, respectivamente. Os resultados apresentados nos microencapsulados LE e LEO mostraram inibição contra todas as bactérias teste, foi constatado que a microencapsulação de enterocina e óleo de orégano mantiveram seu poder antimicrobiano. A efetividade da microencapsulação foi realizada por (FTIR), onde picos de intensidade entre as amostras na região 1000 a 930 cm-¹ e 1800 a 1500 cm-¹ foram observadas. Os resultados apontam para mudança no perfil químico das amostras encapsuladas, corroborando com a hipótese que o leitelho apresentou papel encapsulante da bactericiona e óleo de orégano.Portanto a microencapsulação aumenta a eficácia antimicrobiana dos antimicrobianos.

The research seeks alternative techniques for expanding the shelf life of foods, this has driven studies on the use of natural preservatives, such as bacteriocins and essential oils, which are considered natural antimicrobial agents. However, these natural antimicrobials are not directly added to food products due to sensory changes and their physical and chemical characteristics. With technological advancement of microencap- sulation, it has been a potential to provide systems that ensure stability for natural anti- microbials in this way can compose the food matrix. Therefore, this study has an objective microencapsulated the interocin and essencial oil, used buttermilk as a encapsulating ma- terial where, T1 Buttermilk Control, T2 buttermilk/enterocin (LE), e T3 Buttermilk/en- terocin/oil (LEO). The product has been submitted to spray drier process, were conducted trials to determine antimicrobial activity. Was observed with mass yield 13,01% e 11,63% para LE e LEO. These results the microencapsulate indicate then LE e LEO there was inihibiton against bacteria tests. Was observed that the microencapsulated between enter- ocin and essential oil oregano maintained antimicrobial power. The effectiveness of the microencapsulated was performed by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) analysis, where a sample in the region 1000 to 930 cm-¹ and 1800 to 1500 cm-¹ was observed. Therefore microencapsulation increases antimicrobial efficacy of antimicrobials.

La investigación busca técnicas alternativas para ampliar la vida útil de los alimentos, esto ha impulsado estudios sobre el uso de conservantes naturales, como las bacteriocinas y los aceites esenciales, que se consideran agentes antimicrobianos naturales. Sin embargo, estos antimicrobianos naturales no se añaden directamente a los productos alimentarios debido a los cambios sensoriales y a sus características físicas y químicas. Con el avance tecnológico de la microencapsulación, ha sido un potencial para proporcionar sistemas que garanticen la estabilidad de los antimicrobianos naturales de esta manera puede componer la matriz alimentaria. Por lo tanto, este estudio tiene como objetivo microencapsular la interocina y el aceite esencial, utilizando suero de leche como material encapsulante donde, T1 Suero de leche Control, T2 Suero de leche/enterocina (LE), e T3 Suero de leche/enterocina/aceite (LEO). El producto ha sido sometido al proceso de secado por pulverización, se realizaron ensayos para determinar la actividad antimicrobiana. Se observó con rendimiento de masa 13,01% e 11,63% para LE e LEO. Estos resultados indican que el microencapsulado LE e LEO fue inhibido contra las pruebas bacterianas. Se observó que el microencapsulado entre enterocina y aceite esencial de orégano mantuvo el poder antimicrobiano. La eficacia del microencapsulado fue realizada por análisis de infrarrojo transformado de Fourier (FTIR), donde fue observada una muestra en la región de 1000 a 930 cm-¹ y de 1800 a 1500 cm-¹. Por lo tanto, la microencapsulación aumenta la eficacia antimicrobiana de los antimicrobianos. PALABRAS CLAVE: Bacteriocina; Enterococcus durans; Suero de Leche; Origanum vulgare; Spray Dryer.

Perfil dos casos de câncer de mama entre acometidos no acre período de 2015 a 2019 ­ um estudo transversal / Profile of breast cancer cases between affected in acre period from 2015 to 2019 - a cross-sectional study / Perfil de los casos de cáncer de mama entre las personas afectadas en el período acre de 2015 a 2019 - un estudio transversal

Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar o perfil dos casos de câncer de mama no estado do Acre no período de 2015 a 2019. Trata-se de um estudo quantitativo com delineamento transversal. A amostra foi constituída por todos os casos de câncer de mama registrados no Acre e inseridos no Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde (DATASUS) no período de 2015 a 2019. Foram identificados no período 293 casos da doença, com maior número de casos registrados no ano de 2019 (25,0%), sendo a maioria do sexo feminino (98,0%), na faixa etária de 40 a 49 anos (29,0%). O tempo decorrido desde o diagnóstico até o início do tratamento foi de mais de 60 dias (51,0%). A modalidade terapêutica mais utilizada foi a quimioterapia (55,0%). O local da realização do tratamento ocorreu capital do estado Rio Branco (80,0%). A maior parte dos acometidos, ainda encontra-se em tratamento (56,0%), no entanto (44,0%) evoluiu para óbito. O aumento da doença com o passar dos anos é notável no Acre. É importante destacar que ações voltadas para a prevenção e controle do câncer de mama continuam sendo fundamentais para auxiliar na diminuição do número de casos, como o rastreamento e diagnóstico precoce.

This study aimed to analyze the profile of breast cancer cases in the state of Acre in the period from 2015 to 2019. This is a quantitative study with a cross-sectional design. The sample consisted of all breast cancer cases registered in Acre and inserted in the Informatics Department of the Unified Health System (DATASUS) in the period from 2015 to 2019. In the period 293 cases of the disease were identified, with a greater number of cases registered in 2019 (25.0%), with the majority being female (98.0%), aged 40 to 49 years (29.0%). The time elapsed from diagnosis to the start of treatment was more than 60 days (51.0%). The most used therapeutic modality was chemotherapy (55.0%). The place where the treatment was performed took place in the state of Rio Branco (80.0%). Most of the people affected are still under treatment (56.0%), however (44.0%) died. The increase in the disease over the years is notable in Acre. It is important to highlight that actions aimed at the prevention and control of breast cancer continue to be fundamental to assist in reducing the number of cases, such as screening and early diagnosis.

Este estudio tuvo como objetivo analizar el perfil de los casos de cáncer de mama en el estado de Acre en el período de 2015 a 2019. Se trata de un estudio cuantitativo con diseño transversal. La muestra consistió en todos los casos de cáncer de mama registrados en Acre e ingresados en el Departamento de Informática del Sistema Único de Salud (DATASUS) en el período de 2015 a 2019. En el periodo se identificaron 293 casos de la enfermedad, siendo el mayor número de casos registrados en 2019 (25,0%), siendo la mayoría mujeres (98,0%), en el grupo de edad de 40 a 49 años (29,0%). El tiempo transcurrido desde el diagnóstico hasta el inicio del tratamiento fue superior a 60 días (51,0%). La modalidad terapéutica más utilizada fue la quimioterapia (55,0%). El lugar donde se realizó el tratamiento fue Rio Branco, la capital del estado (80,0%). La mayoría de los pacientes afectados siguen en tratamiento (56,0%), sin embargo, (44,0%) fallecieron. El aumento de la enfermedad a lo largo de los años es notable en Acre. Es importante destacar que las acciones dirigidas a la prevención y control del cáncer de mama siguen siendo fundamentales para ayudar a reducir el número de casos, como el cribado y el diagnóstico precoz.

A scoping review on patient heterogeneity in economic evaluations of precision medicine based on basket trials.

INTRODUCTION: Considerable challenges in the economic evaluation of precision medicines have been mentioned in previous studies. However, they have not addressed how an economic assessment would be conducted based on basket trials (novel studies for evaluation of precision medicine effects) in which the included populations have specific biomarkers and various cancers. Since basket trial populations have remarkable heterogeneity, this study aims to investigate the concept of heterogeneity and specific method(s) for considering it in economic evaluations through guidelines and studies that could be applicable in economic evaluation based on basket trials. AREA COVERED: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and Google to find studies and pharmacoeconomics guidelines. The inclusion criteria included subjects of patient heterogeneity and suggested explicit method(s). Thirty-nine guidelines and 43 studies were included and evaluated. None of these materials mentioned disease types in a target population as a factor causing heterogeneity. Moreover, in economic evaluations, patient heterogeneity has been considered with four general approaches subgroup analysis, individual-based models, sensitivity analysis, and regression models. EXPERT OPINION: Type of disease is not considered a contributing factor in population heterogeneity, and the probable appropriate method for this issue could be individual-based models.

Optimal sample size determination for single-arm trials in pediatric and rare populations with Bayesian borrowing.

In many therapeutic areas with unmet medical needs, such as pediatric oncology and rare diseases, one of the deterrent factors for clinical trial interpretability is the limited sample size with less-than-ideal operating characteristics. Single arm is usually the only viable design due to feasibility and ethical concerns. For the trial results to be more interpretable and conclusive, the evaluation of operating characteristics, such as type I error rate and power, and the appropriate utilization of prior information for study design, shall be prespecified and fully investigated during the trial planning phase. So far, very few existing literature addressed optimal sample size determination issues for the planning of pediatric and rare population trials, with majority of research focusing on analysis perspective with focus on Bayesian borrowing. In practice, when a single-arm trial is designed for rare population, it is not uncommon that the only information available is from an earlier trial and/or a few clinical publications based on observational studies, often constituting mixed or uncertain conclusions. In light of this, an optimal Bayesian sample size determination method for single-arm trial with binary or continuous endpoint is proposed, where conflicting prior beliefs can be readily incorporated. Prior effective sample size can be calculated to assess the robustness as well as the prior information borrowed. Moreover, due to the lack of closed-form posterior distributions in general, an alternative approach for calculating Bayesian power is described. Simulation studies are provided to demonstrate the utility of the proposed methods. In addition, a case study in pediatric patients with leukemia is included to illustrate the proposed method with the existing approaches.

Bayesian basket trial design with false-discovery rate control.

BACKGROUND: Recent advances in developing "tumor agnostic" oncology therapies have identified molecular targets that define patient subpopulations in a manner that supersedes conventional criteria for cancer classification. These successes have produced effective targeted therapies that are administered to patients regardless of their tumor histology. Trials have evolved as well with master protocol designs. By blending translational and clinical science, basket trials in particular are well-suited to investigate and develop targeted therapies among multiple cancer histologies. However, basket trials intrinsically involve more complex design decisions, including issues of multiple testing across baskets, and guidance for investigators is needed. METHODS: The sensitivity of the multisource exchangeability model to prior specification under differing degrees of response heterogeneity is explored through simulation. Then, a multisource exchangeability model design that incorporates control of the false-discovery rate is presented and a simulation study compares the operating characteristics to a design where the family-wise error rate is controlled and to the frequentist approach of treating the baskets as independent. Simulations are based on the original design of a real-world clinical trial, the SUMMIT trial, which investigated Neratinib treatment for a variety of solid tumors. The methods studied here are specific to single-arm phase II trials with binary outcomes. RESULTS: Values of prior probability of exchangeability in the multisource exchangeability model between 0.1 and 0.3 provide the best trade-offs between gain in precision and bias, especially when per-basket sample size is below 30. Application of these calibration results to a re-analysis of the SUMMIT trial showed that the breast basket exceeded the null response rate with posterior probability of 0.999 while having low posterior probability of exchangeability with all other baskets. Simulations based on the design of the SUMMIT trial revealed that there is meaningful improvement in power even in baskets with small sample size when the false-discovery rate is controlled as opposed to the family-wise error rate. For example, when only the breast basket was active, with a sample size of 25, the power was 0.76 when the false-discovery rate was controlled at 0.05 but only 0.56 when the family-wise error rate was controlled at 0.05, indicating that impractical sample sizes for the phase II setting would be needed to achieve acceptable power while controlling the family-wise error rate in this setting of a trial with 10 baskets. CONCLUSION: Selection of the prior exchangeability probability based on calibration and incorporation of false-discovery rate control result in multisource exchangeability model designs with high power to detect promising treatments in the context of phase II basket trials.

Cancer patient survival can be parametrized to improve trial precision and reveal time-dependent therapeutic effects.

Individual participant data (IPD) from oncology clinical trials is invaluable for identifying factors that influence trial success and failure, improving trial design and interpretation, and comparing pre-clinical studies to clinical outcomes. However, the IPD used to generate published survival curves are not generally publicly available. We impute survival IPD from ~500 arms of Phase 3 oncology trials (representing ~220,000 events) and find that they are well fit by a two-parameter Weibull distribution. Use of Weibull functions with overall survival significantly increases the precision of small arms typical of early phase trials: analysis of a 50-patient trial arm using parametric forms is as precise as traditional, non-parametric analysis of a 90-patient arm. We also show that frequent deviations from the Cox proportional hazards assumption, particularly in trials of immune checkpoint inhibitors, arise from time-dependent therapeutic effects. Trial duration therefore has an underappreciated impact on the likelihood of success.

Pharmacologic and genetic inhibition of cholesterol esterification enzymes reduces tumour burden: A systematic review and meta-analysis of preclinical models.

Cholesterol esterification proteins Sterol-O acyltransferases (SOAT) 1 and 2 are emerging prognostic markers in many cancers. These enzymes utilise fatty acids conjugated to coenzyme A to esterify cholesterol. Cholesterol esterification is tightly regulated and enables formation of lipid droplets that act as storage organelles for lipid soluble vitamins and minerals, and as cholesterol reservoirs. In cancer, this provides rapid access to cholesterol to maintain continual synthesis of the plasma membrane. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we summarise the current depth of understanding of the role of this metabolic pathway in pan-cancer development. A systematic search of PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library for preclinical studies identified eight studies where cholesteryl ester concentrations were compared between tumour and adjacent-normal tissue, and 24 studies where cholesterol esterification was blocked by pharmacological or genetic approaches. Tumour tissue had a significantly greater concentration of cholesteryl esters than non-tumour tissue (p < 0.0001). Pharmacological or genetic inhibition of SOAT was associated with significantly smaller tumours of all types (p ≤ 0.002). SOAT inhibition increased tumour apoptosis (p = 0.007), CD8 + lymphocyte infiltration and cytotoxicity (p ≤ 0.05), and reduced proliferation (p = 0.0003) and metastasis (p < 0.0001). Significant risk of publication bias was found and may have contributed to a 32% overestimation of the meta-analysed effect size. Avasimibe, the most frequently used SOAT inhibitor, was effective at doses equivalent to those previously reported to be safe and tolerable in humans. This work indicates that SOAT inhibition should be explored in clinical trials as an adjunct to existing anti-neoplastic agents.

Refining neoadjuvant therapy clinical trial design for muscle-invasive bladder cancer before cystectomy: a joint US Food and Drug Administration and Bladder Cancer Advocacy Network workshop.

The success of the use of novel therapies in the treatment of advanced urothelial carcinoma has contributed to growing interest in evaluating these therapies at earlier stages of the disease. However, trials evaluating these therapies in the neoadjuvant setting must have clearly defined study elements and appropriately selected end points to ensure the applicability of the trial and enable interpretation of the study results. To advance the development of rational trial design, a public workshop jointly sponsored by the US Food and Drug Administration and the Bladder Cancer Advocacy Network convened in August 2019. Clinicians, clinical trialists, radiologists, biostatisticians, patients, advocates and other stakeholders discussed key elements and end points when designing trials of neoadjuvant therapy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), identifying opportunities to refine eligibility, design and end points for neoadjuvant trials in MIBC. Although pathological complete response (pCR) is already being used as a co-primary end point, both individual-level and trial-level surrogacy for time-to-event end points, such as event-free survival or overall survival, remain incompletely characterized in MIBC. Additionally, use of pCR is limited by heterogeneity in pathological evaluation and the fact that the magnitude of pCR improvement that might translate into a meaningful clinical benefit remains unclear. Given existing knowledge gaps, capture of highly granular patient-related, tumour-related and treatment-related characteristics in the current generation of neoadjuvant MIBC trials will be critical to informing the design of future trials.

Racial Disparities in Outcomes After Spine Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Racial disparities are a major issue in health care but the overall extent of the issue in spinal surgery outcomes is unclear. We conducted a systematic review/meta-analysis of disparities in outcomes among patients belonging to different racial groups who had undergone surgery for degenerative spine disease. METHODS: We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Scopus, Cochrane Review Database, and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to January 20, 2021 for relevant articles assessing outcomes after spine surgery stratified by race. We included studies that compared outcomes after spine surgery for degenerative disease among different racial groups. RESULTS: We found 30 studies that met our inclusion criteria (28 articles and 2 published abstracts). We included data from 20 cohort studies in our meta-analysis (3,501,830 patients), which were assessed to have a high risk of observation/selection bias. Black patients had a 55% higher risk of dying after spine surgery compared with white patients (relative risk [RR], 1.55, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28-1.87; I2 = 70%). Similarly, black patients had a longer length of stay (mean difference, 0.93 days; 95% CI, 0.75-1.10; I2 = 73%), and higher risk of nonhome discharge (RR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.47-1.81; I2 = 89%), and 30-day readmission (RR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.03-2.04; I2 = 96%). No significant difference was noted in the pooled analyses for complication or reoperation rates. CONCLUSIONS: Black patients have a significantly higher risk of unfavorable outcomes after spine surgery compared with white patients. Further work in understanding the reasons for these disparities will help develop strategies to narrow the gap among the racial groups.

Pancreas cancer trials for early stage disease: Surgeons leading therapeutic cooperative group trials.

Surgeon-led clinical trials have defined the standard of care for locoregional pancreatic cancer to date. The infrastructure and collaborative nature of cooperative oncology groups offer many advantages, such as providing an ideal mechanism through which multidisciplinary pancreatic cancer trials are performed. As key members of the treatment team, surgeons bring experience and expertise to the design of surgical and multidisciplinary trials and are uniquely poised to be leaders of future pancreatic cancer trials.