Hepatitis C Elimination in Rwanda: Progress, Feasibility, and Economic Evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: In 2018, Rwanda launched a national program to eliminate the hepatitis C virus (HCV). We aim to assess the impact of the program to date and identify strategies to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination goals by 2030. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model to simulate Rwanda's HCV epidemic from 2015 through 2050 and evaluated temporal trends in HCV infection, prevalence, mortality, and the total cost of care for scenarios that could achieve HCV elimination by 2030. RESULTS: Between 2018 and 2022, over 7 million people were screened for HCV, and 60 000 were treated. The study projected that Rwanda could achieve HCV elimination as early as 2027. A feasible strategy of an annual screening rate of 15% and a treatment rate of 100% would achieve all World Health Organization elimination goals by 2028, requiring screening an additional 4 million people and treating 23 900 patients by 2030. The elimination strategy costs $25 million for screening and diagnosis and $21 million for treatment from 2015 to 2050. The national program would avert 4900 hepatocellular carcinoma cases and 6700 HCV-related deaths and save the health system $25.33 million from 2015 to 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Rwanda is poised to become one of the first countries in the world to eliminate HCV. Rwanda's program serves as a blueprint for other countries in the African region. By rapid screening and treatment scale-up (eg, by leveraging HIV platforms) and by drug price negotiations, HCV elimination is not only feasible but can be cost-saving in low-income settings.

The road to cervical cancer elimination in Malaysia: Evaluation of the impact and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus screening with self-collection and digital registry support.

The WHO has launched a global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer through the scale-up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, cervical screening, and cervical cancer treatment. Malaysia has achieved high-coverage HPV vaccination since 2010, but coverage of the existing cytology-based program remains low. Pilot studies found HPV self-sampling was acceptable and effective, with high follow-up rates when a digital registry was used, and recently the Malaysian Government announced plans for a national HPV-based screening program. We therefore evaluated the impact of primary HPV screening with self-collection in Malaysia in the context of Malaysia's existing vaccination program. We used the "Policy1-Cervix" modeling platform to assess health outcomes, cost-effectiveness, resource use and cervical cancer elimination timing (the year when cervical cancer rates reach four cases per 100 000 women) of implementing primary HPV testing with self-collection, assuming 70% routine-screening coverage could be achieved. Based on available data, we assumed that compliance with follow-up was 90% when a digital registry was used, but that compliance with follow-up would be 50-75% without the use of a digital registry. We found that the current vaccination program would prevent 27 000 to 32 200 cervical cancer cases and 11 700 to 14 000 deaths by 2070. HPV testing with a digital registry was cost-effective (CER = $US 6953-7549 < $US 11 373[<1×GDP per capita]) and could prevent an additional 15 900 to 17 800 cases and 9700 to 10 600 deaths by 2070, expediting national elimination by 11 to 20 years, to 2055 to 2059. If HPV screening were implemented without a digital registry, there would be 1800 to 4900 fewer deaths averted by 2070 and the program would be less cost-effective. These results underline the importance of HPV testing as a key elimination pillar in Malaysia.

A global investment framework for the elimination of hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: More than 292 million people are living with hepatitis B worldwide and are at risk of death from cirrhosis and liver cancer. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set global targets for the elimination of viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. However, current levels of global investment in viral hepatitis elimination programmes are insufficient to achieve these goals. METHODS: To catalyse political commitment and to encourage domestic and international financing, we used published modelling data and key stakeholder interviews to develop an investment framework to demonstrate the return on investment for viral hepatitis elimination. RESULTS: The framework utilises a public health approach to identify evidence-based national activities that reduce viral hepatitis-related morbidity and mortality, as well as international activities and critical enablers that allow countries to achieve maximum impact on health outcomes from their investments - in the context of the WHO's 2030 viral elimination targets. CONCLUSION: Focusing on hepatitis B, this health policy paper employs the investment framework to estimate the substantial economic benefits of investing in the elimination of hepatitis B and demonstrates how such investments could be cost saving by 2030. LAY SUMMARY: Hepatitis B infection is a major cause of death from liver disease and liver cancer globally. To reduce deaths from hepatitis B infection, we need more people to be tested and treated for hepatitis B. In this paper, we outline a framework of activities to reduce hepatitis B-related deaths and discuss ways in which governments could pay for them.

Cost-Effectiveness of Testing and Treatment for Hepatitis B Virus and Hepatitis C Virus Infections: An Analysis by Scenarios, Regions, and Income.

OBJECTIVES: Testing and treatment for hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are highly effective, high-impact interventions. This article aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of scaling up these interventions by scenarios, regions, and income groups. METHODS: We modeled costs and impacts of hepatitis elimination in 67 low- and middle-income countries from 2016 to 2030. Costs included testing and treatment commodities, healthcare consultations, and future savings from cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinomas averted. We modeled disease progression to estimate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) by regions and World Bank income groups, according to 3 scenarios: flatline (status quo), progress (testing/treatment according to World Health Organization guidelines), and ambitious (elimination). RESULTS: Compared with no action, current levels of testing and treatment had an ICER of $807/DALY for HBV and -$62/DALY (cost-saving) for HCV. Scaling up to progress scenario, both interventions had ICERs less than the average gross domestic product/capita of countries (HBV: $532/DALY; HCV: $613/DALY). Scaling up from flatline to elimination led to higher ICERs across countries (HBV: $927/DALY; HCV: $2528/DALY, respectively) that remained lower than the average gross domestic product/capita. Sensitivity analysis indicated discount rates and commodity costs were main factors driving results. CONCLUSIONS: Scaling up testing and treatment for HBV and HCV infection as per World Health Organization guidelines is a cost-effective intervention. Elimination leads to a much larger impact though ICERs are higher. Price reduction strategies are needed to achieve elimination given the substantial budget impact at current commodity prices.

Financial Costs of the Zanzibar Elimination of Schistosomiasis Transmission Project.

We estimated the financial costs of different interventions against urogenital schistosomiasis, implemented by the Zanzibar Elimination of Schistosomiasis Transmission (ZEST) project, on Pemba and Unguja islands, Tanzania. We used available data on project activities, resources used, and costs reported in the accounting information systems of ZEST partners. The costs were estimated for all the activities related to snail control, behavior change interventions, the impact assessment surveys, and management of the whole program. Costs are presented in US$ for the full duration of the ZEST project from 2011/2012 to 2017. The total financial costs of implementing snail control activities over 5 years, excluding the costs for donated Bayluscide, were US$55,796 on Pemba and US$73,581 on Unguja, mainly driven by personnel costs. The total financial costs of implementing behavior change activities were US$109,165 on Pemba and US$155,828 on Unguja, with costs for personnel accounting for 47% on Pemba and 69% on Unguja. Costs of implementing biannual mass drug administration refer to the estimated 2.4 million treatments provided on Pemba over 4 years (2013-2016), and do not include the costs of donated praziquantel. The total cost per provided treatment was, on average, US$0.21. This study showed the value of exploiting administrative data to estimate costs of major global health interventions. It also provides an evidence base for financial costs and main cost drivers of implementing multiple combinations of intervention sets that inform decisions regarding the feasibility and affordability of implementing schistosomiasis control and elimination strategies.

Effects and cost of different strategies to eliminate hepatitis C virus transmission in Pakistan: a modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: The WHO elimination strategy for hepatitis C virus advocates scaling up screening and treatment to reduce global hepatitis C incidence by 80% by 2030, but little is known about how this reduction could be achieved and the costs of doing so. We aimed to evaluate the effects and cost of different strategies to scale up screening and treatment of hepatitis C in Pakistan and determine what is required to meet WHO elimination targets for incidence. METHODS: We adapted a previous model of hepatitis C virus transmission, treatment, and disease progression for Pakistan, calibrating using available data to incorporate a detailed cascade of care for hepatitis C with cost data on diagnostics and hepatitis C treatment. We modelled the effect on various outcomes and costs of alternative scenarios for scaling up screening and hepatitis C treatment in 2018-30. We calibrated the model to country-level demographic data for 1960-2015 (including population growth) and to hepatitis C seroprevalence data from a national survey in 2007-08, surveys among people who inject drugs (PWID), and hepatitis C seroprevalence trends among blood donors. The cascade of care in our model begins with diagnosis of hepatitis C infection through antibody screening and RNA confirmation. Diagnosed individuals are then referred to care and started on treatment, which can result in a sustained virological response (effective cure). We report the median and 95% uncertainty interval (UI) from 1151 modelled runs. FINDINGS: One-time screening of 90% of the 2018 population by 2030, with 80% referral to treatment, was projected to lead to 13·8 million (95% UI 13·4-14·1) individuals being screened and 350 000 (315 000-385 000) treatments started annually, decreasing hepatitis C incidence by 26·5% (22·5-30·7) over 2018-30. Prioritised screening of high prevalence groups (PWID and adults aged ≥30 years) and rescreening (annually for PWID, otherwise every 10 years) are likely to increase the number screened and treated by 46·8% and decrease incidence by 50·8% (95% UI 46·1-55·0). Decreasing hepatitis C incidence by 80% is estimated to require a doubling of the primary screening rate, increasing referral to 90%, rescreening the general population every 5 years, and re-engaging those lost to follow-up every 5 years. This approach could cost US$8·1 billion, reducing to $3·9 billion with lowest costs for diagnostic tests and drugs, including health-care savings, and implementing a simplified treatment algorithm. INTERPRETATION: Pakistan will need to invest about 9·0% of its yearly health expenditure to enable sufficient scale up in screening and treatment to achieve the WHO hepatitis C elimination target of an 80% reduction in incidence by 2030. FUNDING: UNITAID.

Elimination of hepatitis C virus in Germany: modelling the cost-effectiveness of HCV screening strategies.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis C is a major public health burden. With new interferon-free direct-acting agents (showing sustained viral response rates of more than 98%), elimination of HCV seems feasible for the first time. However, as HCV infection often remains undiagnosed, screening is crucial for improving health outcomes of HCV-patients. Our aim was to assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of a nationwide screening strategy in Germany. METHODS: We used a Markov cohort model to simulate disease progression and examine long-term population outcomes, HCV associated costs and cost-effectiveness of HCV screening. The model divides the total population into three subpopulations: general population (GEP), people who inject drugs (PWID) and HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM), with total infection numbers being highest in GEP, but new infections occurring only in PWIDs and MSM. The model compares four alternative screening strategies (no/basic/advanced/total screening) differing in participation and treatment rates. RESULTS: Total number of HCV-infected patients declined from 275,000 in 2015 to between 125,000 (no screening) and 14,000 (total screening) in 2040. Similarly, lost quality adjusted life years (QALYs) were 320,000 QALYs lower, while costs were 2.4 billion EUR higher in total screening compared to no screening. While incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) increased sharply in GEP and MSM with more comprehensive strategies (30,000 EUR per QALY for total vs. advanced screening), ICER decreased in PWIDs (30 EUR per QALY for total vs. advanced screening). CONCLUSIONS: Screening is key to have an efficient decline of the HCV-infected population in Germany. Recommendation for an overall population screening is to screen the total PWID subpopulation, and to apply less comprehensive advanced screening for MSM and GEP.

Projections up to 2100 and a budget optimisation strategy towards cervical cancer elimination in China: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of cervical cancer in China is increasing rapidly. We aimed to forecast the age-standardised incidence of cervical cancer in China up to 2100, and to determine the optimal strategy to eliminate cervical cancer under different budget scenarios. METHODS: In our modelling study, we developed an adapted and calibrated hybrid model to estimate the incidence of cervical cancer in urban and rural China until 2100. All 1·15 billion Chinese women living or projected to live during 2015-2100, under the projected trends in ageing, urbanisation, and sexual activity were considered. We assessed several scenarios of budget constraints (a current budget [2012-18], twice the current budget, and no budget constraints), implementation of human papillomavirus vaccination (with different target populations and coverage), and cervical cancer screening characteristics (with different target ages, screening intervals, and coverage). We used a budget optimisation process to select the best available combinations of vaccination and screening. The primary outcomes were the annual incidence of cervical cancer in 2015-2100, and the year of elimination (the first year in which the incidence was expected to be lower than four new cases per 100 000 women). FINDINGS: Under the current strategy, by 2100, the age-standardised incidence of cervical cancer is projected to increase to three times the incidence in 2015. However, if China adopts an optimal strategy under the current budget from 2020 onwards (namely, introducing vaccination of 95% coverage for girls aged 12 years, and expanding coverage of once in a lifetime screening for women aged 45 years of 90% in urban areas and 33% in rural areas), the annual age-standardised incidence of cervical cancer is predicted to decrease to fewer than four new cases per 100 000 women (ie, elimination) by 2072 (95% CI 2070-74) in urban China and 2074 (2072-76) in rural China. If the current budget were doubled from 2020 onwards, elimination would be achieved by 2063 (2059-66) in urban China and 2069 (2066-71) in rural China. The earliest possible year of cervical cancer elimination would be 2057 (2053-60) in urban China and 2060 (2057-63) in rural China, if vaccination coverage for girls aged 12 years and coverage of screening at 5-year intervals for women aged 35-64 years was maximised, with no budgetary restrictions. INTERPRETATION: Cervical cancer incidence in China will continue to increase under current cervical cancer prevention strategies. However, under our budget optimisation strategy from 2020 onwards, cervical cancer could be eliminated as a public health problem by the early 2070s. Elimination could be achieved by the late 2050s by increasing the budget towards vaccination against human papillomavirus and cervical cancer screening. FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China and Chinese Academy of Medical Science Initiative for Innovative Medicine.

Hepatitis C disease burden and strategies for elimination by 2030 in Brazil. A mathematical modeling approach

ABSTRACT Introduction and aim: Hepatitis C is a key challenge to public health in Brazil. The objective of this paper was to describe the Brazilian strategy for hepatitis C to meet the 2030 elimination goal proposed by World Health Organization (WHO). Methods: A mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the current HCV-infected Brazilian population, and to evaluate the relative costs of two different scenarios to address HCV disease burden in Brazil: (1) if no further changes are made to the HCV treatment program in Brazil; (2) where the WHO targets for 2030 elimination are met through diagnosis and treatment efforts peaking before 2024. Results: An anti-HCV prevalence of 0.53% was calculated for the total population. It was estimated that the number of HCV-RNA+ individuals in Brazil in 2017 was 632,000 (0.31% of the population). Scale-up of treatment and diagnosis over time will be necessary in order to achieve WHO targets beginning in 2018. Direct costs (diagnostic, treatment and healthcare costs) are projected to increase significantly during the scale-up of treatment and diagnosis in the initial years of the intervention scenario, but then fall below the base case on an annual basis by 2025-2036, once HCV is eliminated, due to health sectors savings from the prevention of HCV liver-related morbidity and mortality. Conclusion: Achieving the WHO targets is technically feasible in Brazil with a scale-up of treatment and diagnosis over time, beginning in 2018. However, elimination of hepatitis C requires policy changes to substantially scale-up prevention, screening and treatment of HCV, together with public health advocacy to raise awareness among affected populations and healthcare providers.

Prioritizing the scale-up of interventions for malaria control and elimination.

BACKGROUND: A core set of intervention and treatment options are recommended by the World Health Organization for use against falciparum malaria. These are treatment, long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying, and chemoprevention options. Both domestic and foreign aid funding for these tools is limited. When faced with budget restrictions, the introduction and scale-up of intervention and treatment options must be prioritized. METHODS: Estimates of the cost and impact of different interventions were combined with a mathematical model of malaria transmission to estimate the most cost-effective prioritization of interventions. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio was used to select between scaling coverage of current interventions or the introduction of an additional intervention tool. RESULTS: Prevention, in the form of vector control, is highly cost effective and scale-up is prioritized in all scenarios. Prevention reduces malaria burden and therefore allows treatment to be implemented in a more cost-effective manner by reducing the strain on the health system. The chemoprevention measures (seasonal malaria chemoprevention and intermittent preventive treatment in infants) are additional tools that, provided sufficient funding, are implemented alongside treatment scale-up. Future tools, such as RTS,S vaccine, have impact in areas of higher transmission but were introduced later than core interventions. CONCLUSIONS: In a programme that is budget restricted, it is essential that investment in available tools be effectively prioritized to maximize impact for a given investment. The cornerstones of malaria control: vector control and treatment, remain vital, but questions of when to scale and when to introduce other interventions must be rigorously assessed. This quantitative analysis considers the scale-up or core interventions to inform decision making in this area.

Countdown to 2030: eliminating hepatitis B disease, China.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major public health problem worldwide. China has the world's largest burden of HBV infection and will be a major contributor towards the global elimination of hepatitis B disease by 2030. The country has made good progress in reducing incidence of HBV infection in the past three decades. The achievements are mainly due to high vaccination coverages among children and high coverage of timely birth-dose vaccine for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HBV (both > 95%). However, China still faces challenges in achieving its target of 65% reduction in mortality from hepatitis B by 2030. Based on targets of the World Health Organization's Global health sector strategy on viral hepatitis 2016-2021, we highlight further priorities for action towards HBV elimination in China. To achieve the impact target of reduced mortality we suggest that the service coverage targets of diagnosis and treatment should be prioritized. First, improvements are needed in the diagnostic and treatment abilities of medical institutions and health workers. Second, the government needs to reduce the financial burden of health care on patients. Third, better coordination is needed across existing national programmes and resources to establish an integrated prevention and control system that covers prevention, screening, diagnosis and treatment of HBV infection across the life cycle. In this way, progress can be made towards achieving the target of eliminating hepatitis B in China by 2030.

Les infections par le virus de l'hépatite B (VHB) constituent un problème de santé publique majeur à l'échelle mondiale. La Chine est le pays le plus lourdement touché par les infections par le VHB et sa contribution sera donc essentielle pour atteindre l'objectif d'élimination de l'hépatite B dans le monde à l'horizon 2030. Au cours des trente dernières années, le pays a fait des progrès notables en matière de réduction de l'incidence des infections par le VHB. Ces avancées sont principalement dues aux forts niveaux de couverture vaccinale des enfants et d'administration de la dose vaccinale à la naissance visant à prévenir la transmission du VHB de la mère à l'enfant (>95% dans les deux cas). Néanmoins, la Chine doit encore relever des défis de taille pour atteindre l'objectif de réduction de 65% de la mortalité due à l'hépatite B d'ici à 2030. À partir des cibles définies dans la Stratégie mondiale du secteur de la santé contre l'hépatite virale, 2016-2021 de l'Organisation mondiale de la Santé, nous avons identifié les actions à mener prioritairement en vue de l'élimination du VHB en Chine. Pour atteindre l'objectif de réduction de la mortalité, nous suggérons d'orienter en priorité les efforts sur l'amplification de la couverture des services de diagnostic et de traitement. Premièrement, des améliorations sont requises au niveau des capacités diagnostiques et de traitement des institutions médicales et des agents de santé. Deuxièmement, le gouvernement doit réduire la charge financière des soins de santé qui pèse sur les patients. Troisièmement, une meilleure coordination est nécessaire entre les ressources et les programmes nationaux existants, en vue d'établir un système intégré de prévention et de lutte englobant la prévention, le dépistage, le diagnostic et le traitement des infections par le VHB à tous les âges de la vie. De nouveaux progrès pourraient ainsi être faits en vue d'atteindre l'objectif d'élimination de l'hépatite B en Chine à l'horizon 2030.

La infección por el virus de la hepatitis B (VHB) es un gran problema de sanidad pública en todo el mundo. China tiene la mayor carga de infección por VHB en el mundo y será uno de los principales contribuyentes a la eliminación mundial de la enfermedad de la hepatitis B para 2030. En las últimas tres décadas, el país ha hecho grandes progresos en la reducción de la incidencia de la infección por el VHB. Los logros se deben principalmente a la alta cobertura de vacunación entre los niños y a la alta cobertura de la vacuna de dosis oportuna al nacer para la prevención de la transmisión maternoinfantil del VHB (ambas > 95 %). Sin embargo, China sigue teniendo dificultades para alcanzar su objetivo de reducir en un 65 % la mortalidad por hepatitis B para 2030. Basados en los objetivos de la Organización Mundial de la Salud sobre la Estrategia global del sector sanitario para la hepatitis viral 2016-2021, destacamos otras prioridades de acción para la eliminación del VHB en China. Para lograr el objetivo de impacto de la reducción de la mortalidad, sugerimos que se prioricen los objetivos de cobertura de los servicios de diagnóstico y tratamiento. En primer lugar, es necesario mejorar la capacidad de diagnóstico y tratamiento de las instituciones médicas y los trabajadores sanitarios. En segundo lugar, el gobierno debe reducir la carga financiera de la atención sanitaria para los pacientes. En tercer lugar, se necesita una mejor coordinación entre los programas y recursos nacionales existentes para establecer un sistema integrado de prevención y control que abarque la prevención, el cribado, el diagnóstico y el tratamiento de la infección por VHB a lo largo de todo el ciclo de vida. De esta manera, se puede avanzar hacia el objetivo de eliminar la hepatitis B en China para 2030.

Economic evaluation of the hepatitis C elimination strategy in Greece in the era of affordable direct-acting antivirals.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of worldwide liver-related morbidity and mortality. The World Health Organization released an integrated strategy targeting HCV-elimination by 2030. This study aims to estimate the required interventions to achieve elimination using updated information for direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment coverage, to compute the total costs (including indirect/societal costs) of the strategy and to identify whether the elimination strategy is cost-effective/cost-saving in Greece. AIM: To estimate the required interventions and subsequent costs to achieve HCV elimination in Greece. METHODS: A previously validated mathematical model was adapted to the Greek HCV-infected population to compare the outcomes of DAA treatment without the additional implementation of awareness or screening campaigns versus an HCV elimination strategy, which includes a sufficient number of treated patients. We estimated the total costs (direct and indirect costs), the disability-adjusted life years and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio using two different price scenarios. RESULTS: Without the implementation of awareness or screening campaigns, approximately 20000 patients would be diagnosed and treated with DAAs by 2030. This strategy would result in a 19.6% increase in HCV-related mortality in 2030 compared to 2015. To achieve the elimination goal, 90000 patients need to be treated by 2030. Under the elimination scenario, viremic cases would decrease by 78.8% in 2030 compared to 2015. The cumulative direct costs to eliminate the disease would range from 2.1-2.3 billion euros (€) by 2030, while the indirect costs would be €1.1 billion. The total elimination cost in Greece would range from €3.2-3.4 billion by 2030. The cost per averted disability-adjusted life year is estimated between €10100 and €13380, indicating that the elimination strategy is very cost-effective. Furthermore, HCV elimination strategy would save €560-895 million by 2035. CONCLUSION: Without large screening programs, elimination of HCV cannot be achieved. The HCV elimination strategy is feasible and cost-saving despite the uncertainty of the future cost of DAAs in Greece.

Stepwise approach for the control and eventual elimination of Taenia solium as a public health problem.

BACKGROUND: Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis is a public health and agricultural problem, especially in low-income countries, and has been ranked the top foodborne parasitic hazard globally. In 2012, the World Health Organization published a roadmap that called for a validated strategy for T. solium control and elimination by 2015. This goal has not been met, and validated evidence of effective control or elimination in endemic countries is still incomplete. Measuring and evaluating success of control programmes remains difficult, as locally acceptable targets have not been defined as part of the 2012 roadmap nor from other sources, and the performance of tools to measure effect are limited. DISCUSSION: We believe that an international agreement supported by the tripartite World Health Organization, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and World Organisation for Animal Health is needed to facilitate endemic countries in publicising SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable/attainable, Relevant, Time-bound) country-level control target goals. These goals should be achievable through locally acceptable adoption of options from within a standardised 'intervention tool-kit', and progress towards these goals should be monitored using standardised and consistent diagnostics. Several intervention tools are available which can contribute to control of T. solium, but the combination of these - the most effective control algorithm - still needs to be identified. In order to mount control efforts and ensure political commitment, stakeholder engagement and funding, we argue that a stepwise approach, as developed for Rabies control, is necessary if control efforts are to be successful and sustainable. CONCLUSIONS: The stepwise approach can provide the framework for the development of realistic control goals of endemic areas, the implementation of intervention algorithms, and the standardised monitoring of the evaluation of the progress towards obtaining the control target goals and eventually elimination.

A cost-benefit analysis and the potential trade effects of the bovine viral diarrhoea eradication programme in Styria, Austria.

This study evaluated the voluntary and compulsory implementation of a bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) eradication programme in the Austrian Federal State of Styria, Austria, from an economic point of view using ex-post assessment of costs and benefits (disease losses avoided). An economic net benefit (benefit:cost ratio, BCR=1.18) of the programme was demonstrated during the voluntary programme phase (January 1998-July 2004). The break-even point was reached in 2003. If investments in the compulsory programme (August 2004-December 2016) were taken into account, a net economic loss (BCR=0.16) was demonstrated. In contrast to on-going annual testing of all cattle herds, annual testing in accordance with a revised sampling scheme could reduce total surveillance costs by more than 77%. A Bayesian structural time series model was applied to analyse a hypothesised positive impact of the compulsory BVDV programme on the Styrian cattle export market. The average number of exported cows and bulls increased significantly by 42% (P=0.03) and 47% (P=0.01), respectively, and the producer price increased by 14% (P=0.00) and 5% (P=0.16), respectively, during the compulsory programme period compared with the period prior to intervention. This equates to an average revenue increase of €29,754 for cows and €137,563 for bulls per month. These results justify the implementation of eradication programmes, which initially may not appear to be economically viable, particularly if trade effects are not included in the calculations.

The cost and cost-effectiveness of rapid testing strategies for yaws diagnosis and surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Yaws is a non-venereal treponemal infection caused by Treponema pallidum subspecies pertenue. The disease is targeted by WHO for eradication by 2020. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are envisaged for confirmation of clinical cases during treatment campaigns and for certification of the interruption of transmission. Yaws testing requires both treponemal (trep) and non-treponemal (non-trep) assays for diagnosis of current infection. We evaluate a sequential testing strategy (using a treponemal RDT before a trep/non-trep RDT) in terms of cost and cost-effectiveness, relative to a single-assay combined testing strategy (using the trep/non-trep RDT alone), for two use cases: individual diagnosis and community surveillance. METHODS: We use cohort decision analysis to examine the diagnostic and cost outcomes. We estimate cost and cost-effectiveness of the alternative testing strategies at different levels of prevalence of past/current infection and current infection under each use case. We take the perspective of the global yaws eradication programme. We calculate the total number of correct diagnoses for each strategy over a range of plausible prevalences. We employ probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to account for uncertainty and report 95% intervals. RESULTS: At current prices of the treponemal and trep/non-trep RDTs, the sequential strategy is cost-saving for individual diagnosis at prevalence of past/current infection less than 85% (81-90); it is cost-saving for surveillance at less than 100%. The threshold price of the trep/non-trep RDT (below which the sequential strategy would no longer be cost-saving) is US$ 1.08 (1.02-1.14) for individual diagnosis at high prevalence of past/current infection (51%) and US$ 0.54 (0.52-0.56) for community surveillance at low prevalence (15%). DISCUSSION: We find that the sequential strategy is cost-saving for both diagnosis and surveillance in most relevant settings. In the absence of evidence assessing relative performance (sensitivity and specificity), cost-effectiveness is uncertain. However, the conditions under which the combined test only strategy might be more cost-effective than the sequential strategy are limited. A cheaper trep/non-trep RDT is needed, costing no more than US$ 0.50-1.00, depending on the use case. Our results will help enhance the cost-effectiveness of yaws programmes in the 13 countries known to be currently endemic. It will also inform efforts in the much larger group of 71 countries with a history of yaws, many of which will have to undertake surveillance to confirm the interruption of transmission.

Simulating control of a focal wildlife outbreak of Echinococcus multilocularis.

The parasitic tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis is the causative agent of alveolar echinococcosis, a serious zoonotic infection present in Europe that can be fatal. The United Kingdom currently has E. multilocularis free status but the possibility of introduction exists, most likely via an imported or returning dog or other deliberately introduced animal that has not had anthelmintic treatment. We have developed a model to predict the probability of successfully eliminating a focal outbreak of E. multilocularis using a programme of anthelmintic bait distribution. We investigated three different potential control programmes, each with 36 monthly campaigns commencing five, ten or 15 years after disease introduction over an area of 2827km2. We assumed equilibrium disease prevalence of 30%, 40% and 55% based on the range of values reported across Europe. However, for all of these scenarios, equilibrium had not been reached at five to 15 years after introduction and simulated local prevalence values were between 0.5% and 28%. We found that it is possible to eliminate the disease with a 38%-86% success rate if control is started five years after introduction, dropping to 0% to 56% if control is delayed until 15 years after introduction, depending upon the prevalence equilibrium. We have also estimated the costs involved in these programmes to be from €7 to €12 million (2013 prices).

Tuberculosis, Brucellosis and Leucosis in Cattle: A Cost Description of Eradication Programmes in the Region of Lazio, Italy.

The eradication of tuberculosis, brucellosis and leucosis in cattle has not yet been achieved in the entire Italian territory. The region of Lazio, Central Italy, represents an interesting case study to evaluate the evolution of costs for these eradication programmes, as in some provinces the eradication has been officially achieved, in some others the prevalence has been close to zero for years, and in still others disease outbreaks have been continuously reported. The objectives of this study were i) to describe the costs for the eradication programmes for tuberculosis, brucellosis and leucosis in cattle carried out in Lazio between 2007 and 2011, ii) to calculate the ratio between the financial contribution of the European Union (EU) for the eradication programmes and the estimated total costs and iii) to estimate the potential savings that can be made when a province gains the certification of freedom from disease. For the i) and ii) objectives, data were collected from official sources and a costing procedure was applied from the perspective of the Regional Health Service. For the iii) objective, a Bayesian AR(1) regression was used to evaluate the average percentage reduction in costs for a province that gained the certification. The total cost for the eradication programmes adjusted for inflation to 1 January 2016 was estimated at 18 919 797 euro (5th and 95th percentiles of the distribution: 18 325 050-19 552 080 euro). When a province gained the certification of freedom from disease, costs decreased on average by (median of the posterior distribution) 47.5%, 54.5% and 54.9% for the eradication programmes of tuberculosis, brucellosis and leucosis, respectively. Information on possible savings from the reduction of control costs can help policy makers operating under budget constraints to justify the use of additional resources for the final phase of eradication.

Preventive chemotherapy to control soil-transmitted helminthiasis averted more than 500 000 DALYs in 2015.

Background: Preventive chemotherapy (PC), the large-scale administration of anthelminthics, is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the control of soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH). Since 2010, donated anthelminthics for STH have boosted the implementation of PC programmes in children, achieving global coverage of more than 60% in 2015. The WHO Global Health Estimates attribute an annual loss of over 3.3 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to STH. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of PC programmes on child morbidity. Method: We used data from the WHO Global Health Estimates, national coverage data on PC and the results of an evaluation of the impact of PC in 17 countries on morbidity previously conducted by our group. Results: We estimated that the implementation of PC averted in 2015 over 44% of the DALYs that would have been caused in children by STH without the control intervention. A reduction in morbidity of over 75% is expected, if the global target is reached in 2020. If the programme is subsequently maintained, morbidity from STH will be almost totally removed by 2025. Conclusions: In endemic areas, preventive chemotherapy provides a significant health benefit. We consider this estimation potentially useful to evaluate the cost utility of the investment made by several endemic countries on PC to control STH.