Oesophageal cell collection device and biomarker testing to identify high-risk Barrett's patients requiring endoscopic investigation.

BACKGROUND: Barrett's oesophagus surveillance places significant burden on endoscopy services yet is vital to detect early cancerous change. Oesophageal cell collection device (OCCD) testing was introduced across Scotland for Barrett's surveillance in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This national pragmatic retrospective study presents the CytoSCOT programme results and evaluates whether OCCD testing is successfully identifying high-risk Barrett's patients requiring urgent endoscopy. METHODS: All patients undergoing OCCD testing for Barrett's surveillance across 11 Scottish health boards over a 32-month period were identified. Patients who underwent endoscopy within 12 months of OCCD test were included. Individual patient records were interrogated to record clinical information and OCCD test result to categorize patients into risk groups. Endoscopic histopathology results were analysed according to risk group and segment length. Patients were deemed high risk if the OCCD test demonstrated atypia and/or p53 positivity. RESULTS: 4204 OCCD tests were performed in 3745 patients: 608 patients underwent endoscopy within 12 months and were included in this analysis. Patients with longer Barrett's segments were significantly more likely to have an abnormal OCCD test. 50/608 patients (8.2%) had high-grade dysplasia or cancer on endoscopic biopsies: this equates to 1.3% of the total group (50/3745). 46/50 patients (92.0%) were deemed high risk, triggering urgent endoscopy: this rose to 100% with insufficient tests removed. There were no cancers diagnosed within 12 months post-OCCD in the low-risk group. CONCLUSION: OCCD testing is an effective triage tool to identify high-risk patients with Barrett's oesophagus requiring further investigation with endoscopy within the real-world setting.

Insights for clinical management from the real-life data of the centralized West of Scotland biliary cancer clinic.

BACKGROUND: With the increasing of novel therapeutics for the treatment of Biliary Tract Cancers (BTC), and the need to assess their socio-economic impacts for national licence approvals, it is as important as ever to have real-life data in national populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed an audit of the first 2 year-activity (Sep 2019-Sep 2021) of the centralized West-of-Scotland-BTC clinic. 122 patients accessed the service, including 68% with cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), 27% with gallbladder cancer (GBC), and 5% with ampulla of Vater carcinoma with biliary phenotype (AVC). Median age at diagnosis was 66 (28-84), with 30% of newly diagnosed patients being younger than 60 years-old. Thirty-five cases (29%) underwent surgery, followed by adjuvant-chemotherapy in 66%. 60% had recurrent disease (80% with distant relapse). Sixty-four patients (58%) started first-line Systemic-AntiCancer-Treatment (SACT). Of these, 37% received second line SACT, the majority of which had iCCA and GBC. Thirty-% of those who progressed received third line SACT. CONCLUSIONS: About 30% of BTC were eligible for curative surgery. Fifty-eight and twenty% of the overall cohort of advanced BTC patients received first and second line SACT. Our data suggest that reflex genomic profiling may not be cost-effective until molecularly driven strategies are limited to second line setting.

Exploring the impact of traumatic injury on mortality: An analysis of the certified cause of death within one year of serious injury in the Scottish population.

BACKGROUND: Few studies effectively quantify the long-term incidence of death following injury. The absence of detailed mortality and underlying cause of death data results in limited understanding and a potential underestimation of the consequences at a population level. This study takes a nationwide approach to identify the one-year mortality following injury in Scotland, evaluating survivorship in relation to pre-existing comorbidities and incidental causes of death. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective cohort study assessed the one-year mortality of adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score ≥ 9 during 2020 using the Scottish Trauma Audit Group (STAG) registry linked to inpatient hospital data and death certificate records. Patients were divided into three groups: trauma death, trauma-contributed death, and non-trauma death. Kaplan-Meier curves were used for survival analysis to evaluate mortality, and cox proportional hazards regression analysed risk factors linked to death. RESULTS: 4056 patients were analysed with a median age 63 years (58-88) and male predominance (55.2 %). Falls accounted for 73.1 % of injuries followed by motor vehicle accidents (16.3 %) and blunt force (4.9 %). Extremity was the most commonly injured region overall followed by chest and head. However, head injury prevailed in those who died. The registry demonstrated a one-year mortality of 19.3 % with 55 % deaths occurring post-discharge. Of all deaths reported, 35.3 % were trauma deaths, and 47.7 % were trauma-contributed deaths. These groups accounted for over 70 % of mortality within 30 days of hospital admission and continued to represent the majority of deaths up to 6 months post-injury. Patients who died after 6 months were mainly the result of non-traumatic causes, frequently circulatory, neoplastic, and respiratory diseases (37.7 %, 12.3 %, 9.1 %, respectively). Independent risk factors for one-year mortality included a GCS ≤ 8, modified Charlson Comorbidity score >5, Injury Severity Score >25, serious head injury, age and sex. CONCLUSION: With a one-year mortality of 19.3 %, and post-discharge deaths higher than previously appreciated, patients can face an extended period of survival uncertainty. As mortality due to index trauma lasted up to 6 months post-admission, short-term outcomes fail to represent trauma burden and so cogent survival predictions should be avoided in clinical and patient settings.

Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D and survival outcomes of colorectal cancer: evidence from population-based prospective cohorts and Mendelian randomisation.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) and colorectal cancer (CRC) survival outcomes. METHODS: We conducted analyses among the Study of Colorectal Cancer in Scotland (SOCCS) and the UK Biobank (UKBB). Both cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) outcomes were examined. The 25-OHD levels were categorised into three groups, and multi-variable Cox-proportional hazard models were applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). We performed individual-level Mendelian randomisation (MR) through the generated polygenic risk scores (PRS) of 25-OHD and summary-level MR using the inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method. RESULTS: We observed significantly poorer CSS (HR = 0.65,95%CI = 0.55-0.76,P = 1.03 × 10-7) and OS (HR = 0.66,95%CI = 0.58-0.75,P = 8.15 × 10-11) in patients with the lowest compared to those with the highest 25-OHD after adjusting for covariates. These associations remained across patients with varied tumour sites and stages. However, we found no significant association between 25-OHD PRS and either CSS (HR = 0.98,95%CI = 0.80-1.19,P = 0.83) or OS (HR = 1.07,95%CI = 0.91-1.25,P = 0.42). Furthermore, we found no evidence for causal effects by conducting summary-level MR analysis for either CSS (IVW:HR = 1.04,95%CI = 0.85-1.28,P = 0.70) or OS (IVW:HR = 1.10,95%CI = 0.93-1.31,P = 0.25). CONCLUSION: This study supports the observed association between lower circulating 25-OHD and poorer survival outcomes for CRC patients. Whilst the genotype-specific association between better outcomes and higher 25-OHD is intriguing, we found no support for causality using MR approaches.

Variation in colorectal cancer treatment and outcomes in Scotland: real world evidence from national linked administrative health data.

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most common type of cancer in the United Kingdom and the second leading cause of cancer death. Despite improvements in CRC survival over time, Scotland lags behind its UK and European counterparts. In this study, we carry out an exploratory analysis which aims to provide contemporary, population level evidence on CRC treatment and survival in Scotland. Methods: We conducted a retrospective population-based analysis of adults with incident CRC registered on the Scottish Cancer Registry (Scottish Morbidity Record 06 (SMR06)) between January 2006 and December 2018. The CRC cohort was linked to hospital inpatient (SMR01) and National Records of Scotland (NRS) deaths records allowing a description of their demographic, diagnostic and treatment characteristics. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to explore the demographic and clinical factors associated with all-cause mortality and CRC specific mortality after adjusting for patient and tumour characteristics among people identified as early-stage and treated with surgery. Results: Overall, 32,691 (73%) and 12,184 (27%) patients had a diagnosis of colon and rectal cancer respectively, of whom 55% and 53% were early-stage and treated with surgery. Five year overall survival (CRC specific survival) within this cohort was 72% (82%) and 76% (84%) for patients with colon and rectal cancer respectively. Cox proportional hazards models revealed significant variation in mortality by sex, area-based deprivation and geographic location. Conclusions: In a Scottish population of patients with early-stage CRC treated with surgery, there was significant variation in risk of death, even after accounting for clinical factors and patient characteristics.

The incidence of cancer following hospitalisation for a burn injury in Scotland 2009-2019: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest increased occurrence of cancer in persons who have experienced a burn injury with hospital admission. OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of cancer among those hospitalised for burn injuries in Scotland compared with a similar group without a history of burn injury hospitalisation. METHOD: A retrospective cohort design was used to compare cancer (ICD10 C00-97, excluding C44) incidence in two groups: 6805 burn injury patients discharged from Scottish hospitals between 2009 and 2019, and 25,946 subjects from the general population who were matched to burn patients by sex, year of birth, and degree of social deprivation. Cancer incidence was identified from the Scottish cancer registry. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to model time to cancer incidence adjusting for age, sex, degree of deprivation and presence of a comorbidity. Cancer risk was presented as standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) and hazard ratios (HR). RESULTS: We found a higher prevalence of pre-existing conditions, particularly alcohol abuse among patients with burns. Pre-existing cancers were more common in the burn cohort (3.5%) than the comparison group (1.7%) and were excluded from further analysis. Over a median follow-up of 4-5 years, a total of 236 (3.5%) burn patients and 969 (3.7%) persons in the comparison group were diagnosed with cancer. At 0-6 months the cancer SIR for burn patients was 1.88 95% CI (1.40-2.52). After excluding the first six months of follow-up, the overall incidence of cancer was marginally elevated in burn patients (SIR 1.04, 95% CI 0.90-1.19, p = 0.62) and not statistically different from the incidence in comparison subjects (adjusted HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.88-1.21, p = 0.71). CONCLUSIONS: Patients that suffer burn injury have a higher incidence of cancer than the general population and a group matched by age, sex and degree of deprivation. A higher incidence of adverse health-related behaviours such as smoking, alcohol use and pre-existing health conditions among many patients that suffer a burn most likely explain this observed increase. Any persisting inflammatory or immune dysfunction following burn injury is unlikely to account for the increase in cancers in this study.

Clinical outcomes and adverse events of bariatric surgery in adults with severe obesity in Scotland: the SCOTS observational cohort study.

Background: Bariatric surgery is a common procedure worldwide for the treatment of severe obesity and associated comorbid conditions but there is a lack of evidence as to medium-term safety and effectiveness outcomes in a United Kingdom setting. Objective: To establish the clinical outcomes and adverse events of different bariatric surgical procedures, their impact on quality of life and the effect on comorbidities. Design: Prospective observational cohort study. Setting: National Health Service secondary care and private practice in Scotland, United Kingdom. Participants: Adults (age >16 years) undergoing their first bariatric surgery procedure. Main outcome measures: Change in weight, hospital length of stay, readmission and reoperation rate, mortality, diabetes outcomes (HbA1c, medications), quality of life, anxiety, depression. Data sources: Patient-reported outcome measures, hospital records, national electronic health records (Scottish Morbidity Record 01, Scottish Care Information Diabetes, National Records Scotland, Prescription Information System). Results: Between December 2013 and February 2017, 548 eligible patients were approached and 445 participants were enrolled in the study. Of those, 335 had bariatric surgery and 1 withdrew from the study. Mean age was 46.0 (9.2) years, 74.7% were female and the median body mass index was 46.4 (42.4; 52.0) kg/m2. Weight was available for 128 participants at 3 years: mean change was -19.0% (±14.1) from the operation and -24.2% (±12.8) from the start of the preoperative weight-management programme. One hundred and thirty-nine (41.4%) participants were readmitted to hospital in the same or subsequent 35 months post surgery, 18 (5.4% of the operated cohort) had a reoperation or procedure considered to be related to bariatric surgery gastrointestinal complications or revisions. Fewer than five participants (<2%) died during follow-up. HbA1c was available for 93/182 and diabetes medications for 139/182 participants who had type 2 diabetes prior to surgery; HbA1c mean change was -5.72 (±16.71) (p = 0.001) mmol/mol and 65.5% required no diabetes medications (p < 0.001) at 3 years post surgery. Physical quality of life, available for 101/335 participants, improved in the 3 years post surgery, mean change in Rand 12-item Short Form Survey physical component score 8.32 (±8.95) (p < 0.001); however, there was no change in the prevalence of anxiety or depression. Limitations: Due to low numbers of bariatric surgery procedures in Scotland, recruitment was stopped before achieving the intended 2000 participants and follow-up was reduced from 10 years to 3 years. Conclusions: Bariatric surgery is a safe and effective treatment for obesity. Patients in Scotland, UK, appear to be older and have higher body mass than international comparators, which may be due to the small number of procedures performed. Future work: Intervention studies are required to identify the optimal pre- and post surgery pathway to maximise safety and cost-effectiveness. Study registration: This study is registered as ISRCTN47072588. Funding details: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 10/42/02) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 7. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Bariatric surgery is performed on the stomach and small bowel to help people living with obesity lose weight. Our research study has looked at who is getting bariatric surgery, if they are having problems afterwards, how much weight they lose and if their medical conditions improve. A total of 444 people who were attending bariatric surgery services in Scotland, UK, agreed to take part and 336 had surgery. One hundred and eighty-nine of them completed a questionnaire before their surgery and 85 of them after 3 years, to tell us about how they were feeling physically and mentally. We looked at their computer hospital records to see how long they spent in hospital, any medical problems and changes to diabetes medicines and tests. One in five people taking part did not have surgery after all; they changed their mind or the hospital teams did not think it would be safe or work well for the patient. Those who had surgery lost 19% of their body weight and those with type 2 diabetes needed less or no medication 3 years after the surgery. The effect of physical symptoms on day-to-day activities improved but mental health did not. Compared to other countries, the people taking part were older, heavier and sicker. They spent longer in hospital after surgery and were more likely to be readmitted to hospital. How many appointments they had or what type of health professional they saw before or after surgery did not change these results. We had hoped to have far more people in this study and be able to answer more questions, but not enough people were getting bariatric surgery in Scotland for us to ask them to take part. Further research is needed to find the best ways to care for people living with obesity who would benefit from bariatric surgery.

The effect of a minimum price per unit of alcohol in Scotland on alcohol-related ambulance call-outs: A controlled interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: On 1 May 2018, Scotland introduced a minimum unit price (MUP) of £0.50 for alcohol, with one UK unit of alcohol being 10 ml of pure ethanol. This study measured the association between MUP and changes in the volume of alcohol-related ambulance call-outs in the overall population and in call-outs subsets (night-time call-outs and subpopulations with higher incidence of alcohol-related harm). DESIGN: An interrupted time-series (ITS) was used to measure variations in the daily volume of alcohol-related call-outs. We performed uncontrolled ITS on both the intervention and control group and a controlled ITS built on the difference between the two series. Data were from electronic patient clinical records from the Scottish Ambulance Service. SETTING AND CASES: Alcohol-related ambulance call-outs (intervention group) and total ambulance call-outs for people aged under 13 years (control group) in Scotland, from December 2017 to March 2020. MEASUREMENTS: Call-outs were deemed alcohol-related if ambulance clinicians indicated that alcohol was a 'contributing factor' in the call-out and/or a validated Scottish Ambulance Service algorithm determined that the call-out was alcohol-related. FINDINGS: No statistically significant association in the volume of call-outs was found in both the uncontrolled series [step change = 0.062, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.012, 0.0135 P = 0.091; slope change = -0.001, 95% CI = -0.001, 0.1 × 10-3 P = 0.139] and controlled series (step change = -0.01, 95% CI = -0.317, 0.298 P = 0.951; slope change = -0.003, 95% CI = -0.008, 0.002 P = 0.257). Similarly, no significant changes were found for the night-time series or for any population subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: There appears to be no statistically significant association between the introduction of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland and the volume of alcohol-related ambulance call-outs. This was observed overall, across subpopulations and at night-time.

National adoption of an esophageal cell collection device for Barrett's esophagus surveillance: impact on delay to investigation and pathological findings.

High quality Barrett's esophagus surveillance is crucial to detect early neoplastic changes. An esophageal cell collection device (OCCD) was introduced as a triage tool for Barrett's surveillance. This study aims to evaluate whether the Scottish OCCD program (CytoSCOT) has reduced delays to Barrett's surveillance, and whether delayed surveillance negatively impacts endoscopic pathology. All patients undergoing OCCD testing for Barrett's surveillance across 11 Scottish health boards between 14/9/2020 and 13/9/2022 were identified. Patients were dichotomised into two groups (Year 1 vs. Year 2), with individual records interrogated to record demographics, recommended surveillance interval, time from last endoscopy to OCCD test, and OCCD result. Patients were deemed high-risk if the OCCD demonstrated atypia and/or p53 positivity. Further analysis was performed on patients who underwent endoscopy within 12 months of OCCD testing. A total of 3223 OCCD tests were included in the analysis (1478 in Year 1; 1745 in Year 2). In Year 1 versus Year 2, there was a longer median delay to surveillance (9 vs. 5 months; P < 0.001), increased proportion of patients with delayed surveillance (72.6% vs. 57.0%; P < 0.001), and more high-risk patients (12.0% vs. 5.3%; P < 0.001). 425/3223 patients (13.2%) were further investigated with upper gastrointestinal endoscopy, 57.9% of which were high-risk. As surveillance delay increased beyond 24 months, high-risk patients were significantly more likely to develop dysplasia or malignancy (P = 0.004). Delayed Barrett's esophagus surveillance beyond 24 months is associated with increased risk of pre-cancerous pathology. The CytoSCOT program has reduced delays in surveillance, promoting earlier detection of dysplasia and reducing burden on endoscopy services.

Retrospective observational study analysing the trends in ventilation tube insertion in children in Scotland between 2001 and 2018.

OBJECTIVES: Otitis media with effusion (OME) is common, affecting up to 90% of children. Around 25% will have a persistent effusion with conductive hearing loss which can impact their development. Ventilation tubes (VTs) can improve their hearing in the short term. This study aims to analyse the trends in VT insertion rates across Scotland. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: All mainland Scottish health boards. PARTICIPANTS: All children aged 0-16 who underwent a VT insertion procedure from 2001 to 2018 were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Data were provided by the Scottish Public Health Observatory, using Scottish Morbidity Records. Mid-year population estimates were obtained from the National Records Office of Scotland. Socioeconomic deprivation was estimated based on area of residence using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. VT insertion rates were calculated and trends analysed. RESULTS: A total of 35 878 VT procedures were performed in total with a mean rate of 2.02 per 1000 children per year. The highest insertion rates were observed in children aged 4-6. VT insertion rates reduced during the study period (R = -0.729, p = .001). Variability in VT insertion rates between health boards reduced. There was a significant association between socioeconomic deprivation and VT insertion rate, with the most deprived children having the highest rate (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: VT insertion rates and the variability between Scottish health boards have reduced over the past two decades, suggesting a more equitable system. Our data intimates that the decision to perform VT insertion is based upon disease prevalence rather than clinician preference.

Optimising recruitment to a lung cancer screening trial: A comparison of general practitioner and community-based recruitment.

OBJECTIVES: Pre-trial focus groups of the Early detection of Cancer of the Lung Scotland (ECLS) trial indicated that those at high risk of lung cancer are more likely to engage with community-based recruitment methods. The current study aimed to understand if general practitioner (GP) and community-based recruitment might attract different groups of people, and to quantitatively explore the demographic and psychosocial differences between people responding to GP or community-based recruitment. DESIGN: Secondary data analysis of ECLS trial baseline data. METHODS: Adults (n = 11,164) aged 50 to 75 years completed a baseline questionnaire as part of their participation in the ECLS trial. The questionnaire assessed smoking behaviour, health state, health anxiety and illness perception. Alongside demographic characteristics, how participants were made aware of the study/participant recruitment method (GP recruitment/community recruitment) was also obtained via trial records. RESULTS: The likelihood of being recruited via community-based methods increased as deprivation level decreased. Those recruited via the community had higher levels of perceived personal control of developing lung cancer and were more likely to understand their own risk of developing lung cancer, compared to those who were recruited to the trial via their GP. Health state and health anxiety did not predict recruitment methods in multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Community and opportunistic screening invitations were associated with uptake in people from less-deprived backgrounds, and therefore might not be the optimal method to reach those at high risk of lung cancer and living in more deprived areas.

Trends in incidence and average waiting time for arthroplasty from 1998-2021: an observational study of 282,367 patients from the Scottish arthroplasty project.

BACKGROUND: Current waiting times for arthroplasty are reported as being the worst on record. This is a combination of increasing demand, the COVID-19 pandemic and longer standing shortage of capacity. The Scottish Arthroplasty Project (SAP) is a National Audit that analyses all joint replacements undertaken in the Scottish NHS and Independent Sector. The aim of this study was to investigate the long-term trend in provision and waiting time for lower limb joint replacement surgery. METHODS: All total hip replacements (THR) and total knee replacements (TKR) undertaken in NHS Scotland from 1998 to 2021 were identified. Waiting times data were analysed each year to determine the minimum, maximum, median, mean and standard deviation. RESULTS: In 1998, there were 4,224 THR and 2,898 TKR with mean (range, SD) waiting time of 159.5 days (1-1,685, 119.8) and 182.9 days (1-1,946, 130.1). The minimum waiting times were both in 2013 for 7,612 THR - 78.8 days (0-539, 46) and 7,146 TKR - 79.1 days (0-489, 43.7). The maximum waiting times recorded were in 2021 with 4,070 THR waiting 283.7 days (0-945, 215) and 3,153 TKR waiting 316.8 days (4-1,064, 217). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first robust large-scale national dataset showing trends in incidence and waiting time for THR and TKR over two decades. There was an expansion of activity with a reduction in waiting time, which peaked in 2013, followed by an increase in waiting time with a plateau and modest decline in the number of procedures.

Association between cigarette smoke exposure and urinary bladder cancer in Scottish terriers in a cohort study.

Canine urothelial carcinoma (UC) initially responds favorably to treatment, but is ultimately lethal in most cases. Research to identify modifiable risk factors to prevent the cancer is essential. The high breed-associated risk for UC, e.g. 20-fold higher in Scottish terriers, can facilitate this research. The objective was to identify environmental and host factors associated with UC in a cohort of Scottish terriers. Information was obtained through dog owner questionnaires for 120 Scottish terriers ≥ 6 years old participating in a bladder cancer screening study, with comparisons made between dogs that did or did not develop UC during the 3 years of screening. Univariable models were constructed, and variables with P < 0.20 were included when building the multivariable model, and then removed using a backward stepwise procedure. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Urine cotinine concentrations were measured by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry to further investigate potential cigarette smoke exposure. Biopsy-confirmed UC which was found in 32 of 120 dogs, was significantly associated with the dogs living in a household with cigarette smokers (odds ratio [OR], 6.34; 95 % confidence intervals [CI], 1.16-34.69; P = 0.033), living within a mile of a marsh or wetland (OR, 21.23; 95 % CI, 3.64-123.69; P = 0.001), and history of previous bladder infections (OR, 3.87; 95 % CI, 1.0-14.98; P = 0.050). UC was diagnosed in 18 of 51 dogs (35.3 %) with quantifiable cotinine concentrations, and six of 40 dogs (15.0 %) without quantifiable cotinine concentrations in their urine (P = 0.0165). In conclusion, the main modifiable risk factor for UC in this cohort of dogs was exposure to second-hand tobacco smoke.

Clustering long-term health conditions among 67728 people with multimorbidity using electronic health records in Scotland.

There is still limited understanding of how chronic conditions co-occur in patients with multimorbidity and what are the consequences for patients and the health care system. Most reported clusters of conditions have not considered the demographic characteristics of these patients during the clustering process. The study used data for all registered patients that were resident in Fife or Tayside, Scotland and aged 25 years or more on 1st January 2000 and who were followed up until 31st December 2018. We used linked demographic information, and secondary care electronic health records from 1st January 2000. Individuals with at least two of the 31 Elixhauser Comorbidity Index conditions were identified as having multimorbidity. Market basket analysis was used to cluster the conditions for the whole population and then repeatedly stratified by age, sex and deprivation. 318,235 individuals were included in the analysis, with 67,728 (21·3%) having multimorbidity. We identified five distinct clusters of conditions in the population with multimorbidity: alcohol misuse, cancer, obesity, renal failure, and heart failure. Clusters of long-term conditions differed by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation, with some clusters not present for specific strata and others including additional conditions. These findings highlight the importance of considering demographic factors during both clustering analysis and intervention planning for individuals with multiple long-term conditions. By taking these factors into account, the healthcare system may be better equipped to develop tailored interventions that address the needs of complex patients.

An estimation of osteochondrodysplasia prevalence in Australian Scottish Fold cats: a retrospective study using VetCompass Data.

BACKGROUND: All Scottish Fold cats are believed to be affected by osteochondrodysplasia, a painful degenerative joint disorder. This retrospective study aimed to estimate the prevalence of osteochondrodysplasia in Scottish Fold and Scottish Straight cats in Australian veterinary clinics using electronic patient records (EPRs), collected between 1992 and 2018. RESULTS: Consultation events (34,926) in EPRs from veterinary clinics located in New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria, were collected from 1,131 Scottish Fold and 117 Scottish Shorthair cats. A clinical diagnosis of osteochondrodysplasia was made in 12/1,131 Scottish Fold cats. Additionally, 69 cats were identified with suspected osteochondrodysplasia. Of these, 64 were Scottish Fold and 5 were Scottish Shorthair cats. Male and female cats were equally represented. However, a significant difference was observed for the age clinical signs were first recorded in the EPRs. Cats diagnosed clinically with osteochondrodysplasia were significantly younger (p < 0.0001) compared to cats identified as suspected SFOCD cases. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study suggest a relatively low prevalence of clinically diagnosed Scottish Fold osteochondrodysplasia (SFOCD) in the studied Australian Scottish Fold population, with cats generally diagnosed with SFOCD at less than 30 months of age. Further evidence is required to accurately assess the clinical relevance of SFOCD in the Scottish Fold population.

The impact of travel time to cancer treatment centre on post-diagnosis care and mortality among cancer patients in Scotland.

Limited data exist on the effect of travelling time on post-diagnosis cancer care and mortality. We analysed the impact of travel time to cancer treatment centre on secondary care contact time and one-year mortality using a data-linkage study in Scotland with 17369 patients. Patients with longer travelling time and island-dwellers had increased incidence rate of secondary care cancer contact time. For outpatient oncology appointments, the incidence rate was decreased for island-dwellers. Longer travelling time was not associated with increased secondary care contact time for emergency cancer admissions or time to first emergency cancer admission. Living on an island increased mortality at one-year. Adjusting for cancer-specific secondary care contact time increased the hazard of death, and adjusting for oncology outpatient time decreased the hazard of death for island-dwellers. Those with longer travelling times experience the cancer treatment pathway differently with poorer outcomes. Cancer services may need to be better configured to suit differing needs of dispersed populations.

Epidemiology of major trauma in older adults within Scotland: A national perspective from the Scottish Trauma Audit Group (STAG).

BACKGROUND: Major trauma in older adults (MTOA) poses distinctive health and social care challenges, further underlined by the unique socioeconomic and geographical environment of Scotland. This study provides epidemiological trends of MTOA, to provide insight into areas where further evaluation and research are required. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Pseudonymised aggregated demographic, injury and outcome data from 2011 to 2020 were obtained from the Scottish Trauma Audit Group (STAG) Database, covering 28 hospitals across Scotland. Only individuals age ≥ 70 with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) > 15 were included. RESULTS: There was an average of 216 annual cases of MTOA, with a 259 % rise in incidence from 2011 to 2020. This was predominantly driven by a rise in low velocity trauma (fall <2 m height; 287 % increase). The proportion of all major trauma attributable to those aged ≥70 rose from 18.5 % in 2011 to 34.6 % in 2020. Death censored median (IQR) acute hospital length of stay was 18 days (9-30). Overall, 30-day survival was 65.3 %, with no improvement seen between 2011 and 2020 (p = 0.50). Independent predictors of improved 30-day survival included Ages 70-79 & 80-89 [compared to reference ≥ 90] (OR 3.12; 95 %CI 2.24,4.31; p < 0.001 and OR 1.66; 95 %CI 1.21,2.29; p = 0.002 respectively), and Extremity injury (OR 1.89; 95 %CI 1.48,2.41; p < 0.001). Head injury (OR 0.72; 95 %CI 0.54,0.96; p = 0.027) and increasing ISS score (OR 0.88, 95 %CI 0.86,0.89; p < 0.001) were associated with lower likelihood of 30-day survival. A further model also including the admission ward (from eSTAG data November 2017 onwards) demonstrated an association with reduced 30-day survival with admission to General Surgery (OR 0.42; 95 %CI 0.19,0.93; p = 0.033), Intensive Care (OR 0.25; 95 %CI 0.10,0.60; p = 0.002) and Medical Specialities (OR 0.33; 95 %CI 0.15,0.73; p = 0.007) compared to the reference (Major Trauma). Exponential Smoothing predictions revealed a further potential 184 % rise in incidence of MTOA from 2021 to 2030 (3657 per 100,000 population at risk to 10,392 per 100,000 population at risk). CONCLUSION: MTOA is likely to be a rising health care burden, requiring larger quantities of health and social care resource. Urgent preventative strategies are required to reduce low velocity trauma (standing height falls), as well as the high mortality and morbidity of MTOA.

Turner syndrome transition clinic in the West of Scotland: a perspective.

Introduction: Turner Syndrome (TS) is the commonest chromosomal abnormality in females. Establishing and maintaining long-term follow-up after transition to adult endocrine services, to allow for essential lifelong surveillance of hypertension and cardiovascular disease, and optimal hormone replacement, remains a challenge. A TS transition clinic was established with the aim of supporting successful transfer and establishing long-term follow-up in adult endocrine services. Our objectives are to evaluate the success of our TS transition service primarily in achieving and maintaining follow-up after transfer to adult services and to assess the adequacy of health surveillance post-transition with a specific focus on cardiac monitoring and hormone replacement. Methods: A departmental database was used to identify young people whose care had transferred to adult endocrine services. An electronic case record was utilised to obtain clinic attendance and relevant clinical information on cardiovascular monitoring and hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Results: Forty-six (n=46) young people transferred to adult endocrine services during the observed 20-year period, 1998-2017. Thirty-six (n=36) had transferred prior to 2015, of whom sixteen (n=16, 44%) are lost to long-term follow-up at 5 years. Overall, 41 (89%) patients have had cardiac imaging surveillance since transferring, However, only 30 (73%) of these were carried out at the recommended frequencies. All 20 women in established follow-up have had cardiac imaging. Five out of the 46 (11%) patients do not have any documented cardiovascular monitoring. Forty (86.9%) women have had a documented BP measurement. Nineteen of the 20 women who are in 5- year established follow-up have a documented blood pressure. Five (11%) women are not on HRT, while two (4%) remain on oestrogen-only HRT. Thirty-seven (80.4%) women are on combined HRT, only eight (21.6%) are on the recommended form of oestradiol. Two (4%) are not on HRT due to normal ovarian function. Conclusion: A significant proportion of girls with TS are currently lost to adult endocrine services. Strategies to improve long-term endocrine follow-up are needed to ensure lifelong health needs and adequate hormone replacement are met. Whilst similar parameters are monitored in adult endocrine services a group of patients may be at risk of receiving inadequate HRT and developing cardiovascular complications.

Maternal multimorbidity and preterm birth in Scotland: an observational record-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is common in women across the life course. Preterm birth is the single biggest cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity. We aim to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity in pregnant women and to examine the association between maternal multimorbidity and PTB. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study using electronic health records from the Scottish Morbidity Records. All pregnancies among women aged 15 to 49 with a conception date between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2018 were included. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more pre-existing long-term physical or mental health conditions, and complex multimorbidity as the presence of four or more. It was calculated at the time of conception using a predefined list of 79 conditions published by the MuM-PreDiCT consortium. PTB was defined as babies born alive between 24 and less than 37 completed weeks of gestation. We used Generalised Estimating Equations adjusted for maternal age, socioeconomic status, number of previous pregnancies, BMI, and smoking history to estimate the effect of maternal pre-existing multimorbidity. Absolut rates are reported in the results and tables, whilst Odds Ratios (ORs) are adjusted (aOR). RESULTS: Thirty thousand five hundred fifty-seven singleton births from 27,711 pregnant women were included in the analysis. The prevalence of pre-existing multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity was 16.8% (95% CI: 16.4-17.2) and 3.6% (95% CI: 3.3-3.8), respectively. The prevalence of multimorbidity in the youngest age group was 10.2%(95% CI: 8.8-11.6), while in those 40 to 44, it was 21.4% (95% CI: 18.4-24.4), and in the 45 to 49 age group, it was 20% (95% CI: 8.9-31.1). In women without multimorbidity, the prevalence of PTB was 6.7%; it was 11.6% in women with multimorbidity and 15.6% in women with complex multimorbidity. After adjusting for maternal age, socioeconomic status, number of previous pregnancies, Body Mass Index (BMI), and smoking, multimorbidity was associated with higher odds of PTB (aOR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.48-1.82). CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity at the time of conception was present in one in six women and was associated with an increased risk of preterm birth. Multimorbidity presents a significant health burden to women and their offspring. Routine and comprehensive evaluation of women with multimorbidity before and during pregnancy is urgently needed.