Life tables of annual life expectancy and risk factors for mortality in cats in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of the present study were to generate the first life tables for the UK companion cat population overall as well as broken down by sex and breed status, and to quantify associations between mortality and traits such as sex, neuter status, breed status and body weight in relation to mortality. METHODS: Life table construction and modelling included data on 7936 confirmed deaths in cats under primary veterinary care at clinics participating in the VetCompass Programme in 2019. The life tables were built for cats overall, female and male cats, and crossbred and purebred cats. Multivariable generalised linear regression models were generated to explore the risk factors for a shortened lifespan. RESULTS: Life expectancy at age 0 for UK companion cats overall was 11.74 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 11.61-11.87). The probability of death at each year interval increased with age from year interval 3-4, with the probability value not exceeding 0.05 before year 9. Female cats (12.51 years; 95% CI 12.32-12.69) had a 1.33-year longer life expectancy than male cats (11.18 years; 95% CI 11.01-11.38) at age 0. Among the 12 breeds (including crossbred) analysed, Burmese and Birman had the longest life expectancy at year 0, showing 14.42 years (95% CI 12.91-15.93) and 14.39 years (95% CI 12.87-15.91), respectively. Sphynx had the shortest life expectancy at year 0 among the analysed breeds at 6.68 years (95% CI 4.53-8.83). Being entire, purebred and with a non-ideal body weight were significantly linked to a decreased lifespan. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The life tables presented here for companion cats in the UK overall, by sex, and by crossbred and purebred cats can contribute to a better understanding of the life trajectory of cats, helping with evidence-based decision-making for cat owners and the veterinary profession. We have also provided an updated life expectancy at age 0 for various cat breeds for 2019 and showed evidence of the association between non-ideal weight and a decreased lifespan.

Age-specific and cause-specific mortality contributions to the socioeconomic gap in life expectancy in Germany, 2003-21: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Earlier death among people in socioeconomically deprived circumstances has been found internationally and for various causes of death, resulting in a considerable life-expectancy gap between socioeconomic groups. We examined how age-specific and cause-specific mortality contributions to the socioeconomic gap in life expectancy have changed at the area level in Germany over time. METHODS: In this ecological study, official German population and cause-of-death statistics provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany for the period Jan 1, 2003, to Dec 31, 2021, were linked to district-level data of the German Index of Socioeconomic Deprivation. Life-table and decomposition methods were applied to calculate life expectancy by area-level deprivation quintile and decompose the life-expectancy gap between the most and least deprived quintiles into age-specific and cause-specific mortality contributions. FINDINGS: Over the study period, population numbers varied between 80 million and 83 million people per year, with the number of deaths ranging from 818 000 to 1 024 000, covering the entire German population. Between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2019, the gap in life expectancy between the most and least deprived quintiles of districts increased by 0·7 years among females (from 1·1 to 1·8 years) and by 0·1 years among males (from 3·0 to 3·1 years). Thereafter, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the gap increased more rapidly to 2·2 years in females and 3·5 years in males in 2021. Between 2003 and 2021, the causes of death that contributed the most to the life-expectancy gap were cardiovascular diseases and cancer, with declining contributions of cardiovascular disease deaths among those aged 70 years and older and increasing contributions of cancer deaths among those aged 40-74 years over this period. COVID-19 mortality among individuals aged 45 years and older was the strongest contributor to the increase in life-expectancy gap after 2019. INTERPRETATION: To reduce the socioeconomic gap in life expectancy, effective efforts are needed to prevent early deaths from cardiovascular disease and cancer in socioeconomically deprived populations, with cancer prevention and control becoming an increasingly important field of action in this respect. FUNDING: German Cancer Aid and European Research Council.

The association between disability and mortality: a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Globally, 1·3 billion people have a disability and are more likely to experience poor health than the general population. However, little is known about the mortality or life expectancy gaps experienced by people with disabilities. We aimed to undertake a systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between disability and mortality, compare these findings to the evidence on the association of impairment types and mortality, and model the estimated life expectancy gap experienced by people with disabilities. METHODS: We did a mixed-methods study, which included a systematic review and meta-analysis, umbrella review, and life expectancy modelling. For the systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Global Health, PsycINFO, and Embase for studies published in English between Jan 1, 2007, and June 7, 2023, investigating the association of mortality and disability. We included prospective and retrospective cohort studies and randomised controlled trials with a baseline assessment of disability and a longitudinal assessment of all-cause mortality or cause-specific mortality. Two reviewers independently assessed study eligibility, extracted the data, and assessed risk of bias. We did a random-effects meta-analysis to calculate a pooled estimate of the mortality rate ratio for people with disabilities compared with those without disabilities. We did an umbrella review of meta-analyses examining the association between different impairment types and mortality. We used life table modelling to translate the mortality rate ratio into an estimate of the life expectancy gap between people with disabilities and the general population. The systematic review and meta-analysis is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023433374. FINDINGS: Our search identified 3731 articles, of which 42 studies were included in the systematic review. The meta-analysis included 31 studies. Pooled estimates showed that all-cause mortality was 2·24 times (95% CI 1·84-2·72) higher in people with disabilities than among people without disabilities, although heterogeneity between the studies was high (τ2=0·28, I2=100%). Modelling indicated a median gap in life expectancy of 13·8 years (95% CI 13·1-14·5) by disability status. Cause-specific mortality was also higher for people with disabilities, including for cancer, COVID-19, cardiovascular disease, and suicide. The umbrella review identified nine meta-analyses, which showed consistently elevated mortality rates among people with different impairment types. INTERPRETATION: Mortality inequities experienced by people with disabilities necessitate health system changes and efforts to address inclusion and the social determinants of health. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research, Rhodes Scholarship, Indonesia Endowment Funds for Education, Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (Programme for Evidence to Inform Disability Action), and the Arts and Humanities Research Council.

[Impact of changes in malignant tumor death spectrum on life expectancy in Tianjin residents from 1999-2019].

Objective: To analyze the effects of changes in the spectrum of deaths from malignant tumors on the life expectancies of residents of different ages, sexes, and regions (urban or rural) in Tianjin from 1999 to 2019. Methods: The Abridged Life Table method and the Arriaga's decomposition method were used to calculate the effects of changes in spectrum of deaths from malignant tumors on the life expectancies of Tianjin residents of different ages, sexes, and regions. Results: During 1999-2019, the life expectancies increased by 4.96 years and 5.69 years for males and females, respectively, in Tianjin. The decreases in the mortalities from malignant neoplasms contributed 0.12 year (3.30%) and 0.03 year (0.77%) for males and females, respectively, to the increase during 1999-2007, and 0.05 year (3.13%) and 0.12 year (6.08%) for males and females, respectively, during 2007-2019. The decreases in the mortality rates of malignant tumors contributed the most to the increase among residents in the 60-69 years group, and the decreases in mortality rates of lung, gastric, esophageal, and liver cancers had relatively larger contribution. Lung cancer had a negative effect on the life expectancies of men and rural residents, but a positive effect on those of women and urban residents. The significant increases in the mortality rates of lung, colorectal, and pancreatic cancers in the ≥85 years group had a large negative effect on the overall life expectancy. Breast and ovarian cancers contributed negatively to the life expectancy of female residents. Conclusion: The overall increase in the life expectancy in Tianjin from 1999 to 2019 was mainly attributed to the elderly and the decreases in the mortality rates of gastric, esophageal, and liver cancers, among other malignancies, while the increases in the mortality rates of lung, colorectal, gallbladder, pancreatic, and breast cancers were the most significant factors hindering the increase of the life expectancy in Tianjin.

[The gender aspects of changes in mortality during COVID-19 pandemic as exemplified by Moscow].

The mortality is a major component of damage caused by COVID-19. The comparative analysis of changes in mortality was carried out on the basis of the ROSSTAT data over 2012-2020 to determine differences in losses of male and female population caused by pandemic in Moscow. It is demonstrated that at close trends in mortality of males and females before pandemic, in 2020 their mortality changed differently. At equal increase of male and female mortality, main contribution into excess mortality (excluding contribution of COVID-19) was made approximately equally by diseases of nervous system and circulatory system in males and diseases of nervous system in females. The male mortality from COVID-19 is 1.9 times higher than female mortality. As a result of younger average age of death the amount of economic losses in terms of years of potential life lost (PYLL) due to premature death of males because of COVID-19 exceeds economic losses due to premature death of females up to 2 times. Although the average age of death of females from all causes decreased by smaller amount, their values of PYLL increased more, mainly due to higher rate of female mortality from disease of nervous system and from mortality related to drug addiction. In Moscow, the highest increase of PYLL is conditioned by dearth related to drug addiction and alcohol consumption. In the structure of this indicator in males they are ranked fourth and fifth. In females, alcohol-related deaths are ranked as sixth and drug-related deaths as eighth. The pandemic, contributing into increase in economic losses, didn't change their leading causes: diseases of circulatory system, external causes and neoplasms in males; neoplasms, diseases of circulatory system and external causes in females. The value of PYLL due to death from COVID-19 takes sixth place in males and fourth place in females.

Health status in selected post-communist European countries: a comparative study between Poland and Albania.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this analysis was to compare selected health status indicators of the Albanian and Polish populations, pertinent to two former communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). METHODS: This analysis was based on the estimates related to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, reported by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). For Poland, IHME uses data mainly from the Central Statistical Office of Poland, whereas for Albania the information is based on the reports from the National Institute of Statistics. RESULTS: In 2019, life expectancy at birth was slightly higher in Albania compared to Poland (78.5 years vs. 78.1 years, respectively). Mortality rate from noncommunicable diseases was similar in both countries (about 520 deaths per 100,000 population). In 2019, the main risk factor for the overall mortality in both countries was the high systolic blood pressure. In Albania, high systolic blood pressure accounted for almost 32% of deaths from all causes, whereas in Poland it accounted for only 21% of all deaths. The second main risk factor in Albania concerned the dietary factors which were responsible for almost one in four deaths. In Poland, the second main risk factor for all-cause mortality concerned tobacco which was responsible for one in five deaths. The third leading risk factor in Albania was tobacco (responsible for one in five deaths), whereas in Poland it concerned the dietary risks (responsible for about 19% of the all-cause mortality). CONCLUSIONS: This analysis provides useful information about the current health status of two populations pertinent to the former Communist Bloc in CEE. While health indicators can provide important information about the differences in health status between populations, it is important to interpret these indicators in the context of the specific challenges and limitations facing each country.

The indirect costs of human papillomavirus-related cancer in Central and Eastern Europe: years of life lost and productivity costs.

BACKGROUND: Human papilloma virus (HPV) is a common cause of several types of cancer, including head and neck (oral cavity, pharynx, oropharynx, hypopharynx, nasopharynx, and larynx), cervical, vulval, vaginal, anal, and penile cancers. As HPV vaccines are available, there is potential to prevent HPV-related disease burden and related costs. METHOD: A model was developed for nine Central Eastern European (CEE) countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia). This model considered cancer patients who died from 11 HPV-related cancers (oropharynx, oral cavity, nasopharynx, hypopharynx, pharynx, anal, larynx, vulval, vaginal, cervical, and penile) in 2019. Due to data limitations, Bulgaria only included four cancer types. The model estimated the number of HPV-related deaths and years of life lost (YLL) based on published HPV-attributable fractions. YLL was adjusted with labor force participation, retirement age and then multiplied by mean annual earnings, discounted at a 3% annual rate to calculate the present value of future lost productivity (PVFLP). RESULTS: In 2019, there were 6,832 deaths attributable to HPV cancers resulting in 107,846 YLL in the nine CEE countries. PVFLP related to HPV cancers was estimated to be €46 M in Romania, €37 M in Poland, €19 M in Hungary, €15 M in Czechia, €12 M in Croatia, €10 M in Serbia, €9 M in Slovakia, €7 M in Bulgaria and €4 M in Slovenia. CONCLUSIONS: There is a high disease burden of HPV-related cancer-related deaths in the CEE region, with a large economic impact to society due to substantial productivity losses. It is critical to implement and reinforce public health measures with the aim to reduce the incidence of HPV-related diseases, and the subsequent premature cancer deaths. Improving HPV screening and increasing vaccination programs, in both male and female populations, could help reduce this burden.

Shared decision-making for non-operative management versus operative management of hip fractures in selected frail older adults with a limited life expectancy: a protocol for a nationwide implementation study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Recent research has highlighted non-operative management (NOM) as a viable alternative for frail older adults with hip fractures in the final phase of life. This study aims to guide Dutch physicians and hospitals nationwide in a standardised implementation of shared decision-making regarding surgery or NOM in selected frail older adults with a hip fracture. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The patient population for implementation includes frail older adults aged ≥70 years with an acute proximal femoral fracture, nursing home care or a similar level of care elsewhere and at least one additional criterion (ie, malnutrition, severe mobility impairment or ASA≥4). The 2-year implementation study will be conducted in four phases. In phases 1 and 2, barriers and facilitators for implementation will be identified and an implementation protocol, educational materials and patient information will be developed. Phase 3 will involve an implementation pilot in 14 hospitals across the Netherlands. The protocol and educational material will be improved based on healthcare provider and patient experiences gathered through interviews. Phase 4 will focus on upscaling to nationwide implementation and the effect of the implementation on NOM rate will be measured using data from the Dutch Hip Fracture Audit. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was exempted by the local Medical Research Ethics Committee (MEC-2023-0270, 10 May 2023) and Medical Ethics Committee United (W23.083, 26 April 2023). The study's results will be submitted to an open access international peer-reviewed journal. Its protocols, tools and results will be presented at several national and international academic conferences of relevant orthogeriatric (scientific) associations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT06079905 .

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

BACKGROUND: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. FINDINGS: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. INTERPRETATION: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Three-year survival of breast cancer patients attending a one-stop breast care clinic nested within a primary care health facility in sub-Saharan Africa-Zambia.

In Zambia, women with breast symptoms travel through multiple levels of the healthcare system before obtaining a definitive diagnosis. To eradicate this critical barrier to care, we nested a novel breast specialty service platform inside a large public-sector primary healthcare facility in Lusaka, Zambia to offer clinical breast examination, breast ultrasound, and ultrasound-guided core needle biopsy in a one-stop format, tightly linked to referral for treatment. The objective of the study was to determine the life expectancy and survival outcomes of a prospective cohort of women diagnosed with breast cancer who were attended to and followed up at the clinic. The effect of breast cancer stage on prognosis was determined by estimating stage-specific crude survival using the Kaplan-Meier method. Survival analysis was used to estimate mean lifespan according to age and stage at diagnosis. We enrolled 302 women with histologically confirmed breast cancer. The overall 3-year survival was 73%. An increase in patients presenting with early breast cancer and improvements in their survival were observed. Women with early-stage breast cancer had a lifespan similar to the general population, while loss of life expectancy was significant at more advanced stages of disease. Our findings suggest that implementing efficient breast care services at the primary care level can avert a substantial proportion of breast cancer-related deaths. The mitigating factor appears to be stage of disease at the time of diagnosis, the cause of which is multifactorial, with the most influential being delays in the referral process.

Income disparities in loss in life expectancy after colon and rectal cancers: a Swedish register-based study.

BACKGROUND: Differences in the prognosis after colorectal cancer (CRC) by socioeconomic position (SEP) have been reported previously; however, most studies focused on survival differences at a particular time since diagnosis. We quantified the lifetime impact of CRC and its variation by SEP, using individualised income to conceptualise SEP. METHODS: Data included all adults with a first-time diagnosis of colon or rectal cancers in Sweden between 2008 and 2021. The analysis was done separately for colon and rectal cancers using flexible parametric models. For each cancer and income group, we estimated the life expectancy in the absence of cancer, the life expectancy in the presence of cancer and the loss in life expectancy (LLE). RESULTS: We found large income disparities in life expectancy after a cancer diagnosis, with larger differences among the youngest patients. Higher income resulted in more years lost following a cancer diagnosis. For example, 40-year-old females with colon cancer lost 17.64 years if in the highest-income group and 13.68 years if in the lowest-income group. Rectal cancer resulted in higher LLE compared with colon cancer. Males lost a larger proportion of their lives. All patients, including the oldest, lost more than 30% of their remaining life expectancy. Based on the number of colon and rectal cancer diagnoses in 2021, colon cancer results in almost double the number of years lost compared with rectal cancer (24 669 and 12 105 years, respectively). CONCLUSION: While our results should be interpreted in line with what individualised income represents, they highlight the need to address inequalities.

Assessing the impact of type 2 diabetes on mortality and life expectancy according to the number of risk factor targets achieved: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with an increased risk of premature death. Whether multifactorial risk factor modification could attenuate T2D-related excess risk of death is unclear. We aimed to examine the association of risk factor target achievement with mortality and life expectancy among patients with T2D, compared with individuals without diabetes. METHODS: In this longitudinal cohort study, we included 316 995 participants (14 162 with T2D and 302 833 without T2D) free from cardiovascular disease (CVD) or cancer at baseline between 2006 and 2010 from the UK Biobank. Participants with T2D were categorised according to the number of risk factors within target range (non-smoking, being physically active, healthy diet, guideline-recommended levels of glycated haemoglobin, body mass index, blood pressure, and total cholesterol). Survival models were applied to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality and predict life expectancy differences. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 13.8 (IQR 13.1-14.4) years, deaths occurred among 2105 (14.9%) participants with T2D and 18 505 (6.1%) participants without T2D. Compared with participants without T2D (death rate per 1000 person-years 4.51 [95% CI 4.44 to 4.57]), the risk of all-cause mortality among those with T2D decreased stepwise with an increasing number of risk factors within target range (0-1 risk factor target achieved: absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years 7.34 [4.91 to 9.78], HR 2.70 [2.25 to 3.25]; 6-7 risk factors target achieved: absolute rate difference per 1000 person-years 0.68 [-0.62 to 1.99], HR 1.16 [0.93 to 1.43]). A similar pattern was observed for CVD and cancer mortality. The association between risk factors target achievement and all-cause mortality was more prominent among participants younger than 60 years than those 60 years or older (P for interaction = 0.012). At age 50 years, participants with T2D who had 0-1 and 6-7 risk factors within target range had an average 7.67 (95% CI 6.15 to 9.19) and 0.99 (-0.59 to 2.56) reduced years of life expectancy, respectively, compared with those without T2D. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with T2D who achieved multiple risk factor targets had no significant excess mortality risk or reduction in life expectancy than those without diabetes. Early interventions aiming to promote risk factor modification could translate into improved long-term survival for patients with T2D.

Utility of 30-day mortality as a quality metric for palliative radiation treatment: A population-based analysis from Queensland, Australia.

INTRODUCTION: Palliative radiotherapy (PRT) is frequently used to treat symptoms of advanced cancer, however benefits are questionable when life expectancy is limited. The 30-day mortality rate after PRT is a potential quality indicator, and results from a recent meta-analysis suggest a benchmark of 16% as an upper limit. In this population-based study from Queensland, Australia, we examined 30-day mortality rates following PRT and factors associated with decreased life expectancy. METHODS: Retrospective population data from Queensland Oncology Repository was used. Study population data included 22,501 patients diagnosed with an invasive cancer who died from any cause between 2008 and 2017 and had received PRT. Thirty-day mortality rates were determined from the date of last PRT fraction to date of death. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify factors independently associated with risk of death within 30 days of PRT. RESULTS: Overall 30-day mortality after PRT was 22.2% with decreasing trend in more recent years (P = 0.001). Male (HR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.13-1.27); receiving 5 or less radiotherapy fractions (HR = 2.97, 95% CI = 2.74-3.22 and HR = 2.17, 95% CI = 2.03-2.32, respectively) and receiving PRT in a private compared to public facility (HR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.51-1.71) was associated with decreased survival. CONCLUSION: The 30-day mortality rate in Queensland following PRT is higher than expected and there is scope to reduce unnecessarily protracted treatment schedules. We encourage other Australian and New Zealand centres to examine and report their own 30-day mortality rate following PRT and would support collaboration for 30-day mortality to become a national and international quality metric for radiation oncology centres.

"It Can't Hurt!": Why Many Patients With Limited Life Expectancy Decide to Accept Lung Cancer Screening.

PURPOSE: Lung cancer screening (LCS) has less benefit and greater potential for iatrogenic harm among people with multiple comorbidities and limited life expectancy. Yet, such individuals are more likely to undergo screening than healthier LCS-eligible people. We sought to understand how patients with marginal LCS benefit conceptualize their health and make decisions regarding LCS. METHODS: We interviewed 40 people with multimorbidity and limited life expectancy, as determined by high Care Assessment Need scores, which predict 1-year risk of hospitalization or death. Patients were recruited from 6 Veterans Health Administration facilities after discussing LCS with their clinician. We conducted a thematic analysis using constant comparison to explore factors that influence LCS decision making. RESULTS: Patients commonly held positive beliefs about screening and perceived LCS to be noninvasive. When posed with hypothetical scenarios of limited benefit, patients emphasized the nonlongevity benefits of LCS (eg, peace of mind, planning for the future) and generally did not consider their health status or life expectancy when making decisions regarding LCS. Most patients were unaware of possible additional evaluations or treatment of screen-detected findings, but when probed further, many expressed concerns about the potential need for multiple evaluations, referrals, or invasive procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Patients in this study with multimorbidity and limited life expectancy were unaware of their greater risk of potential harm when accepting LCS. Given patient trust in clinician recommendations, it is important that clinicians engage patients with marginal LCS benefit in shared decision making, ensuring that their values of desiring more information about their health are weighed against potential harms from further evaluations.

Life Expectancy of Patients Undergoing Total Knee Arthroplasty: Comparison With General Population.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to analyze the life expectancy and cause of death in osteoarthritis (OA) patients who underwent total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and to identify risk factors that affect long-term mortality rate after TKA. METHODS: Among 601 patients, who underwent primary TKA due to OA by a single surgeon from July 2005 to December 2011, we identified patients who died after the operation using data obtained from the National Statistical Office of Korea. We calculated 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival rates of the patients and age-specific standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) compared to general population of South Korea according to the causes of death. We also identified risk factors for death. RESULTS: The 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year survival rates were 94%, 84%, and 75%, respectively. The overall age-specific SMR of the TKA cohort was lower than that of the general population (0.69; P < 0.001). Cause-specific SMRs for circulatory diseases, neoplasms, and digestive diseases after TKA were significantly lower than those of the general population (0.65, 0.58, and 0.16, respectively; all P < 0.05). Male gender, older age, lower body mass index (BMI), anemia, and higher Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) were significant factors associated with higher mortality after TKA. CONCLUSION: TKA is a worthwhile surgery that can improve life expectancy, especially from diseases of the circulatory system, neoplasms, and digestive system, in patients with OA compared to the general population. However, careful follow-up is needed for patients with male gender, older age, lower BMI, anemia, and higher CCI, as these factors may increase long-term mortality risk after TKA. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III.

The contributions of avoidable causes of death to gender gap in life expectancy and life disparity in the US and Canada: 2001-2019.

OBJECTIVES: This study measures public health policies' and healthcare system's influence, by assessing the contributions of avoidable deaths, on the gender gaps in life expectancy and disparity (GGLD and GGLD, respectively) in the United States (US) and Canada from 2001 to 2019. METHODS: To estimate the GGLE and GGLD, we retrieved age- and sex-specific causes of death from the World Health Organization's mortality database. By employing the continuous-change model, we decomposed the GGLE and GGLD by age and cause of death for each year and over time using females as the reference group. RESULTS: In Canada and the US, the GGLE (GGLD) narrowed (increased) by 0.9 (0.2) and 0.2 (0.3) years, respectively. Largest contributor to the GGLE was non-avoidable deaths in Canada and preventable deaths in the US. Preventable deaths had the largest contributions to the GGLD in both countries. Ischemic heart disease contributed to the narrowing GGLE/GGLD in both countries. Conversely, treatable causes of death increased the GGLE/GGLD in both countries. In Canada, "treatable & preventable" as well as preventable causes of death narrowed the GGLE while opposite was seen in the US. While lung cancer contributed to the narrowing GGLE/GGLD, drug-related death contributed to the widening GGLE/GGLD in both countries. Injury-related deaths contributed to the narrowing GGLE/GGLD in Canada but not in the US. The contributions of avoidable causes of death to the GGLE declined in the age groups 55-74 in Canada and 70-74 in the US, whereas the GGLE widened for ages 25-34 in the US. CONCLUSION: Canada experienced larger reduction in the GGLE compared to the US attributed mainly to preventable causes of death. To narrow the GGLE and GGLD, the US needs to address injury deaths. Urgent interventions are required for drug-related death in both countries, particularly among males aged 15-44 years.

Effects of lifestyle-related risk factors on life expectancy: A comprehensive model for use in early prevention of premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases.

Morbidity and premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases can be largely prevented by adopting a healthy lifestyle at the earliest possible age. However, tools designed for the early identification of those at risk among young adults are lacking. We developed and validated a multivariable model for the prediction of life expectancy, allowing the early identification of apparently healthy adults at risk of lifestyle-related diseases. We used a cross-sectional approach to calculate life expectancy using data from 38,481 participants of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2014), aged ≥20 years. A multivariable logistic model was used to quantify the impact of risk factors on mortality. The model included the following lifestyle-related mortality risk factors as predictors: smoking, diet, physical activity, and body mass index. The presence of the following chronic diseases was considered: diabetes, arrhythmia, coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, and malignant neoplasms. The model showed a good predictive ability; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve measure was 0.846 (95% uncertainty interval 0.838-0.859). Life expectancy was determined using the life table method and the period life tables for the US population as the baseline. The results of this model underscore the importance of lifestyle-related risk factors in life expectancy. The difference between life expectancy for 30-year-old individuals with lifestyle characteristics ranked in 90% and 10% of their gender and age groups was 23 years for males and 18 years for females, whereas in 75% and 25%, it was 14 years for males and 10 years for females. In addition to early risk identification, the model estimates the deferred effect of lifestyle and the impact of lifestyle changes on life expectancy. Thus, it can be used in early prevention to demonstrate the potential risks and benefits of complex lifestyle modifications for educational purposes or to motivate behavioral changes.

Cause-of-Death Determinants of Lifespan Inequality.

We propose a novel decomposition approach that breaks down the levels and trends of lifespan inequality as the sum of cause-of-death contributions. The suggested method shows whether the levels and changes in lifespan inequality are attributable to the levels and changes in (1) the extent of inequality in the cause-specific age-at-death distribution (the "Inequality" component), (2) the total share of deaths attributable to each cause (the "Proportion" component), or (3) the cause-specific mean age at death (the "Mean" component). This so-called Inequality-Proportion-Mean (or IPM) method is applied to 10 low-mortality countries in Europe. Our findings suggest that the most prevalent causes of death (in our setting, "circulatory system" and "neoplasms") do not necessarily contribute the most to overall levels of lifespan inequality. In fact, "perinatal and congenital" causes are the strongest drivers of lifespan inequality declines. The contribution of the IPM components to changes in lifespan inequality varies considerably across causes, genders, and countries. Among the three components, the Mean one explains the least lifespan inequality dynamics, suggesting that shifts in cause-specific mean ages at death alone contributed little to changes in lifespan inequality.

Associations of maternal and personal smoking with all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk and life expectancy: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the individual and combined effects of maternal smoking during pregnancy (MSDP) and personal smoking on mortality and life expectancy. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective cohort study based on the UK Biobank, with a median follow-up of 12.47 years. METHODS: This study employed multivariate Cox regression to determine the relative risks of mortality from all causes and specific diseases according to maternal and/or personal smoking status and pack-years of smoking (0, 1-20, 21-30, >30). Additionally, this study estimated the additive interaction between the two exposures. Life table analyses were performed using the estimated age-specific mortality rates to forecast life expectancy. RESULTS: Results indicated that MSDP elevated the risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.09-1.15) and mortality due to neoplasms (HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.06-1.12), circulatory (HR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06-1.19), respiratory (HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.16-1.40) and digestive system diseases (HR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.08-1.38). Notably, both multiplicative and additive interactions were observed between maternal and personal smoking, with Relative Excess Risk due to Interaction (RERI) values for mortality from all causes, neoplasms, circulatory, and respiratory diseases being 0.21, 0.22, 0.16, and 0.76, respectively. This study also found a trend towards shorter gained life expectancy when maternal smoking and increasing pack-years of personal smoking were combined. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort study of UK Biobank, MSDP was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality and reduced life expectancy, suggesting that quitting smoking during pregnancy might have health and longevity benefits for both generations.

Cost-Effectiveness of Strategies for Treatment Timing for Perinatally Acquired Hepatitis C Virus.

Importance: Prevalence of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among pregnant people is increasing in the US. HCV is transmitted vertically in 7% to 8% of births. Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy was recently approved for children with HCV who are 3 years or older. The clinical and economic impacts of early DAA therapy for young children with HCV, compared with treating at older ages, are unknown. Objective: To develop a state-transition model to project clinical and economic outcomes for children with perinatally acquired HCV to investigate the cost-effectiveness of treating at various ages. Design, Setting, and Participants: The study team modeled the natural history of perinatally acquired HCV to simulate disease progression and costs of a simulated a cohort of 1000 US children with HCV from 3 years old through death. Added data were analyzed January 5, 2021, through July 1, 2022. Interventions: The study compared strategies offering 8 weeks of DAA therapy at 3, 6, 12, or 18 years old, as well as a comparator of never treating HCV. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes of interest include life expectancy from 3 years and average lifetime per-person health care costs. Other clinical outcomes include cases of cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Results: The study team projected that treating HCV at 3 years old was associated with lower mean lifetime per-person health care costs ($148 162) than deferring treatment until 6 years old ($164 292), 12 years old ($171 909), or 18 years old ($195 374). Projected life expectancy was longest when treating at 3 years old (78.36 life years [LYs]) and decreased with treatment deferral until 6 years old (76.10 LYs), 12 years old (75.99 LYs), and 18 years old (75.46 LYs). In a cohort of 1000 children with perinatally acquired HCV, treating at 3 years old prevented 89 projected cases of cirrhosis, 27 cases of HCC, and 74 liver-related deaths compared with deferring treatment until 6 years old. In sensitivity analyses, increasing loss to follow-up led to even greater clinical benefits and cost savings with earlier treatment. Conclusions and Relevance: These study results showed that DAA therapy for 3-year-old children was projected to reduce health care costs and increase survival compared with deferral until age 6 years or older. Measures to increase DAA access for young children will be important to realizing these benefits.