A combined score for predicting clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula based on inflammatory parameters and drainage fluid culture results on postoperative day 3.

BACKGROUND: Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreatic resection can lead to severe postoperative complications. POPF is defined based on postoperative day (POD) 3 drainage fluid amylase level. POPF correlates with inflammatory parameters as well as drainage fluid bacterial infection. However, a standardized model based on these factors for predicting CR-POPF remains elusive. We aimed to identify inflammatory parameter- and drainage fluid culture-related risk factors for CR-POPF on POD 3 after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) and distal pancreatectomy (DP). METHODS: Data from 351 patients who underwent PD or DP between 2013 and 2022 at a single institution were retrospectively analyzed. Risk factors for CR-POPF were investigated using multivariate analyses, and a prediction model combining the risk factors for CR-POPF was developed. RESULTS: Of the 351 patients, 254 and 97 underwent PD and DP, respectively. Multivariate analyses revealed that drainage fluid amylase level ≥722 IU/L, culture positivity, as well as neutrophil count ≥5473/mm3 on POD 3 were independent risk factors for CR-POPF in PD group. Similarly, drainage fluid, amylase level ≥500 IU/L, and culture positivity on POD 3 as well as pancreatic thickness ≥11.1 mm were independent risk factors in the DP group. The model for predicting CR-POPF achieved the maximum overall accuracy rate when the number of risk factors was ≥2 in both the PD and DP groups. CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory parameters on POD 3 significantly influence the risk of CR-POPF onset after pancreatectomy. The combined models based on these values can accurately predict the risk of CR-POPF after pancreatectomy.

Optimal cutoff values of drain amylase for predicting pancreatic fistula are different between open and laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Drainage fluid amylase (DFA) is useful for predicting clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after distal pancreatectomy (DP). However, difference in optimal cutoff value of DFA for predicting CR-POPF between open DP (ODP) and laparoscopic DP (LDP) has not been investigated. This study aimed to identify the optimal cutoff values of DFA for predicting CR-POPF after ODP and LDP. METHODS: Data for 294 patients (ODP, n = 127; LDP, n = 167) undergoing DP at Kobe University Hospital between 2010 and 2021 were reviewed. Propensity score matching was performed to minimize treatment selection bias. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to determine the optimal cutoff values of DFA for predicting CR-POPF for ODP and LDP. Logistic regression analysis for CR-POPF was performed to investigate the diagnostic value of DFA on postoperative day (POD) three with identified cutoff value. RESULTS: In the matched cohort, CR-POPF rates were 24.7% and 7.9% after ODP and LDP, respectively. DFA on POD one was significantly lower after ODP than after LDP (2263 U/L vs 4243 U/L, p < 0.001), while the difference was not significant on POD three (543 U/L vs 1221 U/L, p = 0.171). ROC analysis revealed that the optimal cutoff value of DFA on POD one and three for predicting CR-POPF were different between ODP and LDP (ODP, 3697 U/L on POD one, 1114 U/L on POD three; LDP, 10564 U/L on POD one, 6020 U/L on POD three). Multivariate analysis showed that DFA on POD three with identified cutoff value was the independent predictor for CR-POPF both for ODP and LDP. CONCLUSIONS: DFA on POD three is an independent predictor for CR-POPF after both ODP and LDP. However, the optimal cutoff value for it is significantly higher after LDP than after ODP. Optimal threshold of DFA for drain removal may be different between ODP and LDP.

High hand grip strength is a significant risk factor and a useful predictor of postoperative pancreatic fistula following pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is one of the most critical complications of pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Studies on predictive factors for POPF that can be identified preoperatively are limited. Recent reports have highlighted the association between the preoperative nutritional status, including sarcopenia, and postoperative complications. We examined preoperative risk factors for POPF after PD, focusing on nutritional indicators. METHODS: A total of 153 consecutive patients who underwent PD at our institution were enrolled in this study. Preoperative nutritional parameters, including hand grip strength (HGS) and skeletal muscle mass as components of sarcopenia, were incorporated into the analysis. POPFs were categorized according to the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula (ISGPF) definition as biochemical (grade A) or clinically relevant (CR-POPF; grades B and C). RESULTS: Thirty-seven of the 153 patients (24.1%) fulfilled the ISGPF definition of CR-POPF postoperatively. In the univariate analysis, the incidence of CR-POPF was associated with male sex, non-pancreatic tumor diseases, a high body mass index, a high HGS and a high skeletal muscle mass index. In the multivariate analysis, non-pancreatic tumor diseases and an HGS ≥23.0 kg were selected as independent risk factors for CR-POPF (P <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: A high HGS, a screening tool for sarcopenia, was a risk factor for CR-POPF. It can accurately serve as a useful predictor of POPF risk in patients undergoing PD. These results highlight the potential of sarcopenia to reduce the incidence of POPF and highlight the need to clarify the mechanism of POPF occurrence.

Deep learning-based prediction of post-pancreaticoduodenectomy pancreatic fistula.

Postoperative pancreatic fistula is a life-threatening complication with an unmet need for accurate prediction. This study was aimed to develop preoperative artificial intelligence-based prediction models. Patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy were enrolled and stratified into model development and validation sets by surgery between 2016 and 2017 or in 2018, respectively. Machine learning models based on clinical and body composition data, and deep learning models based on computed tomographic data, were developed, combined by ensemble voting, and final models were selected comparison with earlier model. Among the 1333 participants (training, n = 881; test, n = 452), postoperative pancreatic fistula occurred in 421 (47.8%) and 134 (31.8%) and clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula occurred in 59 (6.7%) and 27 (6.0%) participants in the training and test datasets, respectively. In the test dataset, the area under the receiver operating curve [AUC (95% confidence interval)] of the selected preoperative model for predicting all and clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula was 0.75 (0.71-0.80) and 0.68 (0.58-0.78). The ensemble model showed better predictive performance than the individual ML and DL models.

Portable droplet-based real-time monitoring of pancreatic α-amylase in postoperative patients.

Postoperative complications after pancreatic surgery are frequent and can be life-threatening. Current clinical diagnostic strategies involve time-consuming quantification of α-amylase activity in abdominal drain fluid, which is performed on the first and third postoperative day. The lack of real-time monitoring may delay adjustment of medical treatment upon complications and worsen prognosis for patients. We report a bedside portable droplet-based millifluidic device enabling real-time sensing of drain α-amylase activity for postoperative monitoring of patients undergoing pancreatic surgery. Here, a tiny amount of drain liquid of patient samples is continuously collected and co-encapsulated with a starch reagent in nanoliter-sized droplets to track the fluorescence intensity released upon reaction with α-amylase. Comparing the α-amylase levels of 32 patients, 97 % of the results of the droplet-based millifluidic system matched the clinical data. Our method reduces the α-amylase assay duration to approximately 3 min with the limit of detection 7 nmol/s·L, enabling amylase activity monitoring at the bedside in clinical real-time. The presented droplet-based platform can be extended for analysis of different body fluids, diseases, and towards a broader range of biomarkers, including lipase, bilirubin, lactate, inflammation, or liquid biopsy markers, paving the way towards new standards in postoperative patient monitoring.

Tomoelastography and Pancreatic Extracellular Volume Fraction Derived From MRI for Predicting Clinically Relevant Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic stiffness and extracellular volume fraction (ECV) are potential imaging biomarkers for pancreatic fibrosis. Clinically relevant postoperative fistula (CR-POPF) is one of the most severe complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Which imaging biomarker performs better for predicting the risk of CR-POPF remains unknown. PURPOSE: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of ECV and tomoelastography-derived pancreatic stiffness for predicting the risk of CR-POPF in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy. STUDY TYPE: Prospective. POPULATION: Eighty patients who underwent multiparametric pancreatic MRI before pancreaticoduodenectomy, among whom 16 developed CR-POPF and 64 did not. FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: 3 T/tomoelastography and precontrast and postcontrast T1 mapping of the pancreas. ASSESSMENT: Pancreatic stiffness was measured on the tomographic c-map, and pancreatic ECV was calculated from precontrast and postcontrast T1 maps. Pancreatic stiffness and ECV were compared with histological fibrosis grading (F0-F3). The optimal cutoff values for predicting CR-POPF were determined, and the correlation between CR-POPF and imaging parameters was evaluated. STATISTICAL TESTS: The Spearman's rank correlation and multivariate linear regression analysis was conducted. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis was performed. A double-sided P < 0.05 indicated a statistically significant difference. RESULTS: Pancreatic stiffness and ECV both showed a significantly positive correlation with histological pancreatic fibrosis (r = 0.73 and 0.56, respectively). Patients with advanced pancreatic fibrosis had significantly higher pancreatic stiffness and ECV compared to those with no/mild fibrosis. Pancreatic stiffness and ECV were also correlated with each other (r = 0.58). Lower pancreatic stiffness (<1.38 m/sec), lower ECV (<0.28), nondilated main pancreatic duct (<3 mm) and pathological diagnosis other than pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma were associated with higher risk of CR-POPF at univariate analysis, and pancreatic stiffness was independently associated with CR-POPF at multivariate analysis (odds ratio: 18.59, 95% confidence interval: 4.45, 77.69). DATA CONCLUSION: Pancreatic stiffness and ECV were associated with histological fibrosis grading, and pancreatic stiffness was an independent predictor for CR-POPF. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 1 TECHNICAL EFFICACY STAGE: 5.

Combined pre-operative risk score predicts pancreatic leak after pancreatic resection.

BACKGROUND: Post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a major complication following pancreatectomy and is currently difficult to predict pre-operatively. This study aims to validate pre-operative risk factors and develop a novel combined score for the prediction of POPF in the pre-operative setting. METHODS: Data were collected from 2016 to 2021 for radiologic main pancreatic duct diameter (MPD), body mass index (BMI), physical status classified by American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA), polypharmacy, mean platelet ratio (MPR), comorbidity-polypharmacy score (CPS), and a novel Combined Pancreatic Leak Prediction Score (CPLPS) (derived from MPD diameter, BMI, and CPS) were obtained from pre-operative data and analyzed for their independent association with POPF occurrence. RESULTS: In total, 166 patients who underwent pancreatectomy with pancreatic leak (Grade A, B, and C) occurring in 51(30.7%) of patients. Pre-operative radiologic MPD diameter < 4 mm (p < 0.001), < 5 mm (p < 0.001), < 6 mm (p = 0.001), BMI ≥ 25 (p = 0.009), and ≥ 30 (p = 0.017) were independently associated with the occurrence of pancreatic leak. CPLPS was also predictive of pancreatic leak following pancreatectomy on univariate (p = 0.005) and multivariate analysis (p = 0.036). CONCLUSION: MPD and BMI were independent risk factors predictive for the development of pancreatic leak. CPLPS, was an independent predictor of pancreatic leak following pancreatectomy and could be used to help guide surgical decision making and patient counseling.

Comparing the distal pancreatectomy fistula risk score (D-FRS) and DISPAIR-FRS for predicting pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy.

BACKGROUNDS: Distal pancreatectomy fistula risk score (D-FRS) and DISPAIR-FRS has not been widely validated for predicting postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after distal pancreatectomy (DP). METHODS: We retrospectively analysed 104 patients undergoing DP. The predictive value of the D-FRS and DISPAIR-FRS were compared. Risk factors associated with POPF were investigated by multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Of the 104 patients, 23 (22.1%) were categorized into the POPF group (all grade B). The areas under the ROC (AUCs) of the D-FRS (preoperative), D-FRS (intraoperative), and DISPAIR-FRS were 0.737, 0.809, and 0.688, respectively. Stratified by the D-FRS (preoperative), the POPF rates in low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 5%, 22.6%, and 36.4%, respectively. By the D-FRS (intraoperative), the POPF rates in low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 8.8%, 47.1%, and 47.4%, respectively. By the DISPAIR-FRS, the POPF rates in low-risk, intermediate-risk, and extreme-high-risk groups were 14.8%, 23.8% and 62.5%, respectively. Body mass index and main pancreatic duct diameter were independent risk factors of POPF both in preoperative (P = 0.014 and P = 0.033, respectively) and intraoperative (P = 0.015 and P = 0.039) multivariate analyses. CONCLUSION: Both the D-FRS (preoperative), D-FRS (intraoperative), and DISPAIR-FRS has good performance in POPF prediction after DP. The risk stratification was not satisfactory in current Asian cohort.

The cholinesterase and C-reactive protein score is a potential predictor of pseudoaneurysm formation after pancreaticoduodenectomy in patients with soft pancreas.

BACKGROUND: Pseudoaneurysm (PA) rupture after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) is a life-threatening complication. Most PA cases originate from postoperative pancreatic fistulas (POPFs). Although several risk factors for POPF have been identified, specific risk factors for PA formation remain unclear. Therefore, we retrospectively analyzed PD cases with soft pancreas and proposed a novel strategy for early detection of PA formation. METHODS: Overall, 120 patients underwent PD between 2010 and 2020 at our institution; of these, 65 patients with soft pancreas were enrolled. We evaluated the clinicopathological factors influencing PA formation and developed a risk score to predict PA formation. RESULTS: In total, 11 of the 65 patients developed PAs (PA formation group: PAG), and 8 of these 11 PAs ruptured. The median time to PA formation was 15 days, with a minimum of 5 days. The PAG was significantly older than the non-PA formation group, were predominantly men, and had comorbid diabetes mellitus. Pre- and intra-operative findings were similar between the two groups. Importantly, no significant differences were found in postoperative drain amylase levels and total drain amylase content. Cholinesterase and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels on postoperative day (POD) 3 were significantly different between the two groups. Multivariate analysis showed that cholinesterase ≤ 112 U/L and CRP ≥ 16.0 mg/dl on POD 3 were independent predictors of PA formation. CONCLUSIONS: Decreased cholinesterase and elevated CRP on POD 3 (Cho-C score) are useful predictors of PA formation in cases with soft pancreas. In such cases, periodic computed tomography evaluations and strict drain management are necessary to prevent life-threatening hemorrhage.

The Role of C-reactive Protein and Procalcitonin in Predicting the Occurrence of Pancreatic Fistula in Patients who Underwent Laparoscopic Pancreaticoduodenectomy: a Retrospective Study.

The occurrence of postoperative pancreatic fistula following laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy (LPD) is a significant concern, yet there is currently a lack of consensus on reliable predictive methods for this complication. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the clinical significance of C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) values and their reliability in early predicting the development of clinically relevant pancreatic fistula (CRPF) following LPD.A retrospective analysis was conducted using data from 120 patients who had LPD between September 2019 and December 2021. Preoperative assessment data, standard patients' demographic and clinicopathological characteristics, intra- and postoperative evaluation, as well as postoperative laboratory values on postoperative days (PODs) 1, 3, and 7, including white blood cells (WBCs), CRP, and PCT, were prospectively recorded on a dedicated database. Two clinicians separately collected and cross-checked all of the data.Among 120 patients [77 men (64%), 43 women (36%], CRPF occurred in 15 patients (11 grade B and 4 grade C fistulas). The incidence rate of CRPF was 12.3%. A comparison of the median values of WBCs, PCT, and CRP across the two groups revealed that the CRPF group had higher values on most PODs than the non-CRPF group. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) and cutoff values. It was discovered that POD 3 has the most accurate and significant values for WBCs, CRP, and PCT. According to the ROC plots, the AUC for WBCs was 0.842, whereas the AUC for PCT was 0.909. As for CRP, the AUC was 0.941 (95% CI 0.899-0.983, p < 0.01) with a cutoff value of 203.45, indicating a sensitivity of 93.3% and specificity of 91.4%.Both CRP and PCT can be used to predict the early onset of CRPF following LPD, with CRP being slightly superior on POD 3.

Drain fluid volume combined with amylase level predicts clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy: A retrospective clinical study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Several indicators are recognized in the development of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). However, drain fluid volume (DFV) remains poorly studied. We aimed to discover the predictive effects of DFV and guide clinical management. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the clinical data of patients that received PD between January 2015 and December 2019 in a high-volume center. DFV was analyzed as a potential risk factor and postoperative short-term outcomes as well as drain removal time were compared stratified by different DFV levels. Receiver operating characteristic curves and area under curves (AUC) were compared for DFV alone and DFV combined with drain fluid amylase (DFA). Subgroup analysis of DFV stratified by DFA evaluated the predictability of CR-POPF. RESULTS: CR-POPF occurred in 19.7% of 841 patients. Hypertension, postoperative day 3 (POD3) DFA ≥ 300 U/L, and POD3 DFV ≥ 30 mL were independent risk factors, while pancreatic main duct diameter ≥ 3 mm was a protective factor. POD3 DFV ≥ 30 mL increased the overall occurrences of CR-POPF and major complications (P = 0.017; P = 0.029). POD3 DFV alone presented a low predictive value (AUC 0.602), while POD3 DFV combined with DFA had a high predictive value (AUC 0.759) for CR-POPF. Subgroup analysis showed that the combination of POD3 DFV ≥ 30 mL and DFA ≥ 300 U/L led to higher incidences of CR-POPF (P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: CR-POPF is common after PD, and high DFV combined with DFA may predict its occurrence and facilitate appropriate management.

External validation of fistula risk scores for postoperative pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Fistula risk scores such as distal fistula risk scores and DISPAIR have been recently developed to assess the risk of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy. This study aimed to validate these models externally using a large-scale Chinese cohort. METHODS: The study enrolled adult patients who underwent distal pancreatectomy at a high-volume single center between January 2011 and December 2021. The clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula was defined as grade B/C, according to the 2016 International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve. RESULTS: Among 653 eligible patients, 126 (19.3%) suffered from clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistulas. Independent predictors for clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistulas included body mass index, diabetes mellitus, pancreatic thickness at both neck and transection sites, main pancreatic duct diameter, and soft pancreas. Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula risk increased with increasing score severity. All 3 prediction models showed acceptable discrimination, with area under the curve values of preoperative distal fistula risk score at 0.723 (95% confidence interval 0.687-0.757), intraoperative distal fistula risk score at 0.737 (95% confidence interval 0.701-0.770), and DISPAIR at 0.721 (95% confidence interval 0.685-0.755). No significant differences were found among them. CONCLUSION: Distal fistula risk scores and DISPAIR are useful tools for predicting clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula after distal pancreatectomy, highlighting their importance in guiding surgical approach decisions and mitigating strategies against this complication in clinical practice.

A novel prediction model of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy using only preoperative markers.

BACKGROUND: Since clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) can cause intra-abdominal hemorrhage and abscesses, leading to surgery-related deaths after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD), its preoperative prediction is important to develop strategies for surgical procedures and perioperative management. This study aimed to establish a novel prediction model for CR-POPF using preoperative markers. METHODS: On a training set of 180 patients who underwent PD at the Yamaguchi University Hospital, a combination of CR-POPF predictors were explored using the leave-one-out method with a unique discrete Bayes classifier. This predictive model was confirmed using a validation set of 366 patients who underwent PD at the Osaka University Hospital. RESULTS: In the training set, CR-POPF occurred in 60 (33%)　of 180 patients and 130 (36%)　of 366 patients in the validation set using selected markers. In patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), the main pancreatic duct (MPD) index showed the highest prognostic performance and could differentiate CR-POPF with 87% sensitivity and 81% specificity among 84 patients in the training set. In the validation set, the sensitivity and specificity of the MPD index-based model for 130 PDAC samples were 93% and 87%, respectively. In patients with non-PDAC, the MPD index/body mass index (BMI) combination showed the highest prognostic performance and could differentiate CR-POPF with 84% sensitivity and 57% specificity among 96 patients in the training set. In the validation set, the sensitivity and specificity of the MPD index/BMI-based model for 236 non-PDAC samples were 85% and 53%, respectively. CONCLUSION: We developed a novel prediction model for pancreatic fistulas after PD using only preoperative markers. The MPD index and MPD index/BMI combination will be useful for CR-POPF assessment in PDAC and non-PDAC samples, respectively.

Serum amylase on postoperative day 1 is superior to serum lipase in predicting clinically relevant pancreatic fistula after partial pancreaticoduodenectomy.

PURPOSE: To compare the predictive value of serum amylase and lipase regarding the occurrence of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (cr-POPF) after partial pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). METHODS: Data from 228 consecutive patients undergoing PD were obtained from a prospective database. Serum amylase and lipase were measured on postoperative days (PODs) 0-2. Receiver-operating characteristics analysis was performed and cutoff values were tested using logistic regression. RESULTS: Serum amylase had a larger area under the curve (AUC) on POD1 (AUC 0.89, p <0.001) than serum lipase. For serum amylase POD 1, a cutoff value of 70 U/l showed sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 70% for the diagnosis of cr-POPF. Serum amylase POD 1 > 70 U/l (OR 9.815, 95% CI 3.683-26.152, p < 0.001), drain amylase POD 1 > 300 U/l (OR 2.777, 95% CI 1.071-7.197, p= 0.036), and a small (≤ 3mm) pancreatic duct diameter (OR 3.705, 95% CI 1.426-9.627, p= 0.007) were significant predictors of cr-POPF in the multivariable analysis. Patients were divided into three risk groups based on serum amylase POD 1 and pancreatic duct diameter. This model had a good performance in discriminating cr-POPF (AUC 0.846, 95% CI 0.793-0.898). The sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value for the combination of serum amylase POD 1 <70 U/l and pancreatic duct diameter >3 mm were 100%, 70%, and 100%. CONCLUSION: Serum amylase POD 1 was superior to serum lipase in predicting cr-POPF after PD. The proposed risk prediction model had a sensitivity and negative predictive value of 100%, allowing for early identification of cr-POPF.

Development and validation of a novel nomogram to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy using lasso-logistic regression: an international multi-institutional observational study.

BACKGROUND: Existing prediction models for clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) lack discriminatory power or are too complex. This study aimed to develop a simple nomogram that could accurately predict clinically relevant POPF after PD. METHODS: A high-volume, multicenter cohort of patients who underwent PD from the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database in the United States during 2014-2017 was used as the model training cohort ( n =3609), and patients who underwent PD from the Pancreatic Center of the National Cancer Center Hospital in China during 2014-2019 were used as the external validation cohort ( n =1347). The study used lasso penalized regression to screen large-scale variables, then logistic regression was performed to screen the variables and build a model. Finally, a prediction nomogram for clinically relevant POPF was established based on the logistic model, and polynomial equations were extracted. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: In the training and validation cohorts, there were 16.7% (601/3609) and 16.6% (224/1347) of patients who developed clinically relevant POPF, respectively. After screening using lasso and logistic regression, only six predictors were independently associated with clinically relevant POPF, including two preoperative indicators (weight and pancreatic duct size), one intraoperative indicator (pancreatic texture), and three postoperative indicators (deep surgical site infection, delayed gastric emptying, and pathology). The prediction of the new nomogram was accurate, with an area under the curve of 0.855 (95% CI: 0.702-0.853) in the external validation cohort, and the predictive performance was superior to three previously proposed POPF risk score models (all P <0.001, likelihood ratio test). CONCLUSIONS: A reliable lasso-logistic method was applied to establish a novel nomogram based on six readily available indicators, achieving a sustained, dynamic, and precise POPF prediction for PD patients. With a limited number of variables and easy clinical application, this new model will enable surgeons to proactively predict, identify, and manage pancreatic fistulas to obtain better outcomes from this daunting postoperative complication.