Response to Tsuda et al. "demonstrating the undermining of science and health policy after the Fukushima nuclear accident by applying the toolkit for detecting misused epidemiological methods".

BACKGROUND: The SHAMISEN (Nuclear Emergency Situations - Improvement of Medical And Health Surveillance) European project was conducted in 2015-2017 to review the lessons learned from the experience of past nuclear accidents and develop recommendations for preparedness and health surveillance of populations affected by a nuclear accident. Using a toolkit approach, Tsuda et al. recently published a critical review of the article by Cléro et al. derived from the SHAMISEN project on thyroid cancer screening after nuclear accident. MAIN BODY: We address the main points of criticism of our publication on the SHAMISEN European project. CONCLUSION: We disagree with some of the arguments and criticisms mentioned by Tsuda et al. We continue to support the conclusions and recommendations of the SHAMISEN consortium, including the recommendation not to launch a mass thyroid cancer screening after a nuclear accident, but rather to make it available (with appropriate information counselling) to those who request it.

Invited Commentary: Use of Epidemiologic Methods to Guide Comprehensive and Equitable Approaches to Policy.

Despite a dramatic reduction in the prevalence of commercial cigarette smoking in the United States, children are still commonly exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS), which is a cause of various pediatric health problems. Further, SHS exposure is patterned by race and class, exacting an inequitable toll on children from families with lesser social and economic advantage. In this issue of the Journal, Titus et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2023;192(1):25-33) use natural experiment evaluation methods (difference-in-differences) to test whether the recently implemented US Department of Housing and Urban Development policy that forbade smoking in and around New York City Housing Authority buildings affected child respiratory health. The results from their work remind us that policies do not always impact outcomes as we might expect. Given that policy is one of the most potent tools for population health promotion, this work underlines the need for epidemiologists to engage in policy evaluation at all stages of the policy life cycle, in order to discover comprehensive approaches to policy development and implementation that prioritize equity and address structural racism.

Análisis mediante variables instrumentales para establecer causalidad en investigaciones observacionales / Analysis through instrumental variables to establish causality in observational research

La identificación de relaciones causales es uno de los problemas fundamentales de la investigación científica en medicina y es necesaria para poder ejercerla en forma efectiva. Sin embargo, desde el punto de vista práctico es difícil establecer la existencia de relaciones causales en estudios de carácter observacional, en gran parte por la presencia de factores de confusión. El análisis a través de variables instrumentales es una de las estrategias que permite controlar el efecto confundidor y documentar la presencia de relaciones causa-efecto en estas situaciones. En este artículo, el autor resume los principales supuestos del análisis a través de variables instrumentales, haciendo foco en la aleatorización mendeliana. (AU)

The identification of causal relationships is one of the fundamental challenges in scientific research in medicine and is necessary for its effective practice. However, from a practical standpoint, establishing the existence of causal relationships in observational studies is difficult, largely due to the presence of confounding factors. Analysis through instrumental variables is one of the strategies that allows to control the confounding effect and documenting the presence of cause-and-effect relationships in these situations. In this article, the author summarizes the main assumptions of analysis through instrumental variables, with a focus on Mendelian randomization. (AU)

Perfil de pacientes com sepse e choque séptico em um hospital de trauma: estudo transversal / Profile of patients with sepsis and septic shock in a trauma hospital: cross-sectional study / Perfil de pacientes con sepsis y shock séptico en un hospital de trauma: estudio transversal

Objetivo: Avaliar o perfil e o desfecho clínico de pacientes com sepse e choque séptico em um hospital de trauma de Belo Horizonte. Métodos: Trata-se de estudo transversal, retrospectivo e descritivo dos casos de sepse e choque séptico. Resultados: Constatou-se que 97 (73%) pacientes eram do sexo masculino, com idade entre 19 e 59 anos, 87 (65%) previamente hígidos. Principal motivo de internação foi queda da própria altura com 23 (17%) casos e 37 (28%) diagnósticos de trauma crânio encefálico. Oitenta e seis (65%) pacientes tiveram diagnóstico de sepse e 47 (35%) choque séptico, o principal foco de infecção foi pulmonar 83 (62%). Obtivemos 88 (66%) resultados de hemoculturas negativas e 45 (34%) positivas, 64 (48%) pacientes receberam antibiótico em até 60 minutos após o diagnóstico e o tempo de internação mais prevalente após o evento séptico foi de 7 dias, representado por 31 (46%) pacientes que já estavam internados em uma Unidade de Terapia Intensiva (UTI). Mortalidade de 37 (28%) e 96 (72%) sobreviventes da população estudada. Conclusão: O evento séptico é um problema de saúde pública e tem alta letalidade em pacientes traumatizados. (AU)

Objective: To evaluate the profile and clinical outcome of patients with sepsis and septic shock in a trauma hospital in Belo Horizonte. Methods: This is a cross-sectional, retrospective and descriptive study of cases of sepsis and septic shock. Results: It was found that 97 (73%) patients were male, aged 19 to 59 years, 87 (65%) were previously healthy. Main reason for hospitalization was a fall from one's own height with 23 (17%) cases and 37 (28%) diagnosis of traumatic brain injury. Eighty-six (65%) patients were diagnosed with sepsis and 47 (35%) septic shock, the main focus of infection was pulmonary 83 (62%). We got 88 (66%) negative blood culture results and 45 (34%) positive, 64 (48%) patients received antibiotics within 60 minutes after diagnosis and the most prevalent hospital stay after septic event was 7 days, represented by 31 (46%) patients who were already hospitalized in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Mortality of 37 (28%) and 96 (72%) survivors of the population studied. Conclusion: Septic event is a public health problem and has high lethality in traumatized patients. (AU)

Objetivo: Evaluar el perfil y el resultado clínico de los pacientes con sepsis y shock séptico en un hospital de trauma en Belo Horizonte. Métodos: Este es un estudio transversal, retrospectivo y descriptivo de casos de sepsis y shock séptico. Resultados: Se encontró que 97 (73%) pacientes eran hombres, de 19 a 59 años, 87 (65%) antes estaban sanos. La razón principal de la hospitalización fue una caída desde la propia altura con 23 (17%) casos y 37 (28%) diagnóstico de lesión cerebral traumática. Ochenta y seis (65%) pacientes fueron diagnosticados con sepsis y 47 (35%) shock séptico, el foco principal de infección fue pulmonar 83 (62%). Tenemos 88 (66%) resultados negativos del cultivo sanguíneo y 45 (34%) positivo, 64 (48%) los pacientes recibieron antibióticos dentro de los 60 minutos posteriores al diagnóstico y la estancia hospitalaria más frecuente después del evento séptico fue de 7 días, representados por 31 (46%) pacientes que ya estaban hospitalizados en una Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos (UCI). Mortalidad de 37 (28%) y 96 (72%) sobrevivientes de la población estudiada. Conclusión: El evento séptico es un problema de salud pública y tiene alta letalidad en pacientes traumatizados. (AU)

Método de captura y recaptura: una experiencia de su aplicación para determinar la incidencia de diabetes gestacional / Capture and recapture method: anexperience of itsapplication to estimatetheincidence of gestational diabetes

Los métodos de captura y recaptura (MCR) se emplean en la estimación de poblaciones mediante la utilización de diferentes fuentes de datos, disponibles e incompletas, que registran por separado un mismo evento. En esta metodología, las fuentes son utilizadas para extrapolar el número de individuos no registrados, usando la información recopilada sobre los individuos sí registrados. Este artículo describe todos los pasos de su aplicación práctica, a partir de un ejemplo de estimación de la incidencia de diabetes gestacional en una institución, a partir de cinco fuentes documentales. (AU)

Capture-recapture (CRM) methods are widely used to estimate populations by using different data sources, available and incomplete, that record the same event separately. In these methods, the available sources are used to extrapolate the number of unregistered individuals, using the information collected on the individuals that are registered. This article describes all the steps of its practical application, based on an example of estimating the incidence of gestational diabetes in an institution based on five documentary sources. (AU)

Impact of Reverse Causation on Estimates of Cancer Risk Associated With Radiation Exposure From Computerized Tomography: A Simulation Study Modeled on Brain Cancer.

Use of computed tomography (CT) scanning has increased substantially since its introduction in the 1990s. Several authors have reported increased risk of leukemia and brain tumors associated with radiation exposure from CT scans. However, reverse causation is a concern, particularly for brain cancer; in other words, the CT scan may have been taken because of preexisting cancer and therefore not have been a cause. We assessed the possibility of reverse causation via a simulation study focused on brain tumors, using a simplified version of the data structure for recent CT studies. Five-year-lagged and unlagged analyses implied an observed excess risk per scan up to 70% lower than the true excess risk per scan, particularly when more than 10% of persons with latent cancer had increased numbers of scans or the extra scanning rate after development of latent cancer was greater than 2 scans/year; less extreme values of these parameters imply little risk attenuation. Without a lag and when more than 20% of persons with latent cancer had increased scans-an arguably implausible scenario-the excess risk per scan was increased over the true excess risk per scan by up to 35%-40%. This study suggests that with a realistic lag, reverse causation results in downwardly biased risk, a result of induced classical measurement error, and is therefore unlikely to produce a spurious positive association between cancer and radiation dose from CT scans.

MRI-based radiomics model can improve the predictive performance of postlaminar optic nerve invasion in retinoblastoma.

OBJECTIVES: To develop an MRI-based radiomics model to predict postlaminar optic nerve invasion (PLONI) in retinoblastoma (RB) and compare its predictive performance with subjective radiologists' assessment. METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled 124 patients with pathologically proven RB (90 in training set and 34 in validation set) who had MRI scans before surgery. A radiomics model for predicting PLONI was developed by extracting quantitative imaging features from axial T2W images and contrast-enhanced T1W images in the training set. The Kruskal-Wallis test, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, and recursive feature elimination were used for feature selection, where upon a radiomics model was built with a logistic regression (LR) classifier. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the accuracy were assessed to evaluate the predictive performance in the training and validation set. The performance of the radiomics model was compared to radiologists' assessment by DeLong test. RESULTS: The AUC of the radiomics model for the prediction of PLONI was 0.928 in the training set and 0.841 in the validation set. Radiomics model produced better sensitivity than radiologists' assessment (81.1% vs 43.2% in training set, 82.4vs 52.9% in validation set). In all 124 patients, the AUC of the radiomics model was 0.897, while that of radiologists' assessment was 0.674 (p < 0.001, DeLong test). CONCLUSION: MRI-based radiomics model to predict PLONI in RB patients was shown to be superior to visual assessment with improved sensitivity and AUC, and may serve as a potential tool to guide personalized treatment.

Contrast-enhanced ultrasound-based ultrasomics score: a potential biomarker for predicting early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after resection or ablation.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to construct a prediction model based on contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) ultrasomics features and investigate its efficacy in predicting early recurrence (ER) of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after resection or ablation. METHODS: This study retrospectively included 215 patients with primary HCC, who were divided into a developmental cohort (n = 139) and a test cohort (n = 76). Four representative images-grayscale ultrasound, arterial phase, portal venous phase and delayed phase-were extracted from each CEUS video. Ultrasomics features were extracted from tumoral and peritumoral area inside the region of interest. Logistic regression was used to establish models, including a tumoral model, a peritumoral model and a combined model with additional clinical risk factors. The performance of the three models in predicting recurrence within 2 years was verified. RESULTS: The combined model performed best in predicting recurrence within 2 years, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.845, while the tumoral model had an AUC of 0.810 and the peritumoral model one of 0.808. For prediction of recurrence-free survival, the 2-year cumulative recurrence rate was significant higher in the high-risk group (76.5%) than in the low-risk group (9.5%; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: These CEUS ultrasomics models, especially the combined model, had good efficacy in predicting early recurrence of HCC. The combined model has potential for individual survival assessment for HCC patients undergoing resection or ablation. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: CEUS ultrasomics had high sensitivity, specificity and PPV in diagnosing early recurrence of HCC, and high efficacy in predicting early recurrence of HCC (AUC > 0.8). The combined model performed better than the tumoral ultrasomics model and peritumoral ultrasomics model in predicting recurrence within 2 years. Recurrence was more likely to occur in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group, with 2-year cumulative recurrence rates, respectively, 76.5% and 9.5% (p < 0.0001).

Clinical and demographic characterization of the population with osteoporosis in two reference medical centres in Colombia / Caracterización clínica y demográfica de la población con osteoporosis en 2 centros médicos de referencia en Colombia

ABSTRACT Introduction: Osteoporosis is a public health problem. However, there is still a lack of data in Colombia on the characteristics of patients with osteoporosis. Objectives: This study aims to characterize the population with osteoporosis without previous diagnosis. Materials and methods: Observational, retrospective, descriptive study in patients with osteoporosis. Patients diagnosed between 2014 and 2017 were included. The information was obtained from the patient medical records and the densitometry results. Results: Most (92.2%) of the patients came from Medellín, and the rest from Cali. The mean age of the population was 65.1 years (SD: 9.97). As regards the history of fracture, it was reported that 12.0% had suffered from vertebral fractures, 2.3% had a history of fracture in the distal radius, 2.8% in the femoral neck, and 1.4% had had femoral shaft fracture. Bone densitometry showed a mean T-score of -2.90 in the femoral neck; -3.02 in total hip; -3.03 in the lumbar spine, and -3.42 in the 33% radius. In the 602 patients who had a control bone densitometry, an average BMD gain was seen in all the evaluated regions. Conclusions: The present study has enabled the characterizing of patients from 2 Colombian cities with a diagnosis of osteoporosis. The 2 most frequently reported locations for the diagnosis of osteoporosis were lumbar spine and femoral neck. An average BMD gain was also observed.

RESUMEN Introducción: La osteoporosis es un problema de salud pública, sin embargo, en Colombia en la actualidad faltan datos sobre las características de los pacientes con esta enfermedad. Objetivos: Este estudio pretende caracterizar la población con osteoporosis sin diagnóstico previo. Materiales y métodos: Estudio observacional, retrospectivo, descriptivo en pacientes con osteoporosis. Incluyó a pacientes diagnosticados entre el 2014 y el 2017. La información fue obtenida a partir de las historias clínicas de los pacientes y el resultado de la densitometría. Resultados: El 92,2% de los pacientes provenía de Medellín y los restantes de Cali. La edad promedio ± desviación estándar de la población fue 65,1 ± 9,97 arios. En cuanto al antecedente de fractura, se reportó que el 12,0% había presentado fracturas vertebrales, el 2,3% tenía antecedente de fractura en radio distal, el 2,8% en cuello femoral y el 1,4% había tenido fractura de diáfisis femoral. La densitometría ósea (DMO) mostró un T-score promedio de -2,90 en cuello femoral, -3,02 en cadera total, -3,03 en columna lumbar y-3,42 en radio 33%. En los 602 pacientes que contaban con DMO de control se vio una ganancia de la DMO promedio en todas las regiones evaluadas. Conclusiones: El presente estudio permitió caracterizar a pacientes con diagnóstico de osteoporosis en 2 ciudades de Colombia. Las 2 localizaciones más reportadas para el diagnóstico de osteoporosis fueron columna lumbar y cuello femoral; adicionalmente, se observó una ganancia de la DMO promedio.

Temporality of clinical factors associated with pancreatic cancer: a case-control study using linked electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer risk is poorly quantified in relation to the temporal presentation of medical comorbidities and lifestyle. This study aimed to examine this aspect, with possible influence of demographics. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control study on the ethnically-diverse population of East London, UK, using linked electronic health records. We evaluated the independent and two-way interaction effects of 19 clinico-demographic factors in patients with pancreatic cancer (N = 965), compared with non-malignant pancreatic conditions (N = 3963) or hernia (control; N = 4355), reported between April 1, 2008 and March 6, 2020. Risks were quantified by odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: We observed increased odds of pancreatic cancer incidence associated with recent-onset diabetes occurring within 6 months to 3 years before cancer diagnosis (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.25-3.03), long-standing diabetes for over 3 years (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.32-2.29), recent smoking (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.36-2.4) and drinking (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.31-2.35), as compared to controls but not non-malignant pancreatic conditions. Pancreatic cancer odds was highest for chronic pancreatic disease patients (recent-onset: OR 4.76, 95% CI 2.19-10.3, long-standing: OR 5.1, 95% CI 2.18-11.9), amplified by comorbidities or harmful lifestyle. Concomitant diagnosis of diabetes, upper gastrointestinal or chronic pancreatic conditions followed by a pancreatic cancer diagnosis within 6 months were common, particularly in South Asians. Long-standing cardiovascular, respiratory and hepatobiliary conditions were associated with lower odds of pancreatic cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Several factors are, independently or via effect modifications, associated with higher incidence of pancreatic cancer, but some established risk factors demonstrate similar magnitude of risk measures of developing non-malignant pancreatic conditions. The findings may inform refined risk-stratification strategies and better surveillance for high-risk individuals, and also provide a means for systematic identification of target population for prospective cohort-based early detection research initiatives.

Patterns and outcomes of immune-related adverse events in solid tumor patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors in Thailand: a multicenter analysis.

BACKGROUND: Most immune-related adverse event (irAE) patterns and treatment guidelines are based on western clinical data. We evaluated the incidence and patterns of irAEs in patients treated with immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) in Thailand. METHODS: All solid tumor patients treated with ICIs were retrospectively reviewed in a multicenter analysis. The study aims to evaluate the incidence of irAEs and their characteristics, treatments, outcomes, and impact on survival. All irAEs were graded using the CTCAE version 4.0. Characteristics of irAEs including time to onset, duration of irAEs, specific treatments, and outcomes of irAEs were reviewed. The Chi-square or Fisher's exact test was used to compare variables. Overall survival (OS) was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and compared by the log-rank test. A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: irAEs of any grade were observed in 98 of 414 patients (24%), whereas grades 3-4 irAEs were observed in 5.6%. The majority of patients (78%) were treated with monotherapy ICI (anti-PD1/PD-L1 92%). The most common all-grade irAEs were hypothyroidism (7.5%), hepatitis (6.5%), and rash (4.8%). Median onset of overall irAEs was 63 days. Pancreatitis and pneumonitis had the earliest onset at 30 and 34 days, respectively. ICIs were rechallenged in 68 of 98 patients with irAE. Eleven of sixty-eight patients (11.2%) with initial irAE had reoccurrence after ICI rechallenge. Based on a multivariate analysis, pre-existing hypothyroidism, ICI used in a clinical trial setting, and combinations of ICI/ICI were independent factors predicting irAE occurrence. Patients with irAE had a statistically significant longer overall survival (OS) when compared to patients without irAE (p = 0.019). A multivariate analysis revealed that occurrence of irAE was an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.51-0.96; p = 0.028). CONCLUSION: irAE was commonly observed in Thai cancer patients treated with ICIs. Most irAEs were low-grade and manageable. Re-occurrence of irAE after re-challenging ICI was not uncommonly observed. Patients who experienced irAEs might have significantly longer OS compared to patients without irAEs. However, OS in this study should be interpreted with caution since it might be affected by various tumor types, treatment settings, dosing schedule, and ICI combinations.

Conjoint Developmental Trajectories of Adolescent E-cigarette and Combustible Cigarette Use.

OBJECTIVES: In this study, we sought to identify which adolescents progress to regular electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use (without cigarette smoking), which adolescents become dual users of both types of cigarettes, and how dual use develops across time. METHODS: Adolescents (N = 1808) from public high schools outside Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, completed in-classroom surveys at wave 1 (fall 2016, beginning of ninth grade) and at 6-month intervals for the following 36 months (fall 2019, beginning of 12th grade). RESULTS: A sequential processes growth mixture model identified 4 conjoint latent classes: later, rapid e-cigarette uptake (class 1: n = 230); no use of e-cigarettes or combustible cigarettes (class 2: n = 1141); earlier, steady e-cigarette uptake (class 3: n = 265); and dual use of e-cigarettes and combustible cigarettes (class 4: n = 204). Using a rich set of potential risk factors, multinomial logistic regression assessed the likelihood of belonging to each conjoint class compared with the comparison class (dual use). Adolescents in the dual use class were characterized by a greater number and severity of e-cigarette and combustible cigarette risk factors. Adolescents in the 2 e-cigarettes-only classes were characterized by either e-cigarette-specific risk factors (earlier onset) or no risk factors (later onset). The no use class had an absence of risk factors for e-cigarette and cigarette use. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides new prospective evidence for distinct patterns and profiles of adolescents who progress to current e-cigarette use, including adolescents who were initially cigarette smokers. The findings have implications for prevention intervention timing, tobacco product focus, content, and the adolescent subgroups to target.

Predictive value of a novel Asian lung cancer screening nomogram based on artificial intelligence and epidemiological characteristics.

BACKGROUND: To develop and validate a risk prediction nomogram based on a deep learning convolutional neural networks (CNN) model and epidemiological characteristics for lung cancer screening in patients with small pulmonary nodules (SPN). METHODS: This study included three data sets. First, a CNN model was developed and tested on data set 1. Then, a hybrid prediction model was developed on data set 2 by multivariable binary logistic regression analysis. We combined the CNN model score and the selected epidemiological risk factors, and a risk prediction nomogram was presented. An independent multicenter cohort was used for model external validation. The performance of the nomogram was assessed with respect to its calibration and discrimination. RESULTS: The final hybrid model included the CNN model score and the screened risk factors included age, gender, smoking status and family history of cancer. The nomogram showed good discrimination and calibration with an area under the curve (AUC) of 91.6% (95% CI: 89.4%-93.5%), compare with the CNN model, the improvement was significance. The performance of the nomogram still showed good discrimination and good calibration in the multicenter validation cohort, with an AUC of 88.3% (95% CI: 83.1%-92.3%). CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that epidemiological characteristics should be considered in lung cancer screening, which can significantly improve the efficiency of the artificial intelligence (AI) model alone. We combined the CNN model score with Asian lung cancer epidemiological characteristics to develop a new nomogram to facilitate and accurately perform individualized lung cancer screening, especially for Asians.

Update on Phototherapy and Childhood Cancer in a Northern California Cohort.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to reassess the relationship between phototherapy and cancer in an extended version of a previous cohort and to replicate a report from Quebec of increased cancer risk after phototherapy beginning at age 4 years. METHODS: This cohort study included 139 100 children born at ≥35 weeks' gestation from 1995 to 2017, followed through March 16, 2019, in Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitals who had a qualifying bilirubin level from -3 mg/dL to +4.9 mg/dL from the American Academy of Pediatrics phototherapy threshold; an additional 40 780 children and 5 years of follow-up from our previous report. The exposure was inpatient phototherapy (yes or no), and the outcomes were various types of childhood cancer. We used Cox proportional hazard models, controlling for propensity-score quintiles, and allowed for time-dependent exposure effects to assess for the risk of cancer after a latent period. RESULTS: Over a mean (SD) follow-up of 8.2 (5.7) years, the crude incidence of cancer per 100 000 person-years was 25.1 among those exposed to phototherapy and 19.2 among those not exposed (233 cases of cancer). After propensity adjustment, phototherapy was not associated with any cancer (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83-1.54), hematopoietic cancer (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 0.74-1.83), or solid tumors (HR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.65-1.58). We also found no association with cancer diagnoses at age ≥4 years. CONCLUSIONS: We did not confirm previous, concerning associations between phototherapy and adjusted risk of any cancer, nonlymphocytic leukemia, or brain and/or central nervous systems tumors in later childhood.

Prevalence and associations of axillary web syndrome in Asian women after breast cancer surgery undergoing a community-based cancer rehabilitation program.

BACKGROUND: Patients who have breast cancer surgery are at risk of axillary web syndrome (AWS), an under-recognized postsurgical complication which can result in shoulder morbidity and functional impairment. Emerging studies have indicated that AWS may persist beyond the first few months after surgery, although few studies have assessed the prevalence and association of AWS beyond a year after diagnosis. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence and associations for AWS in post-operative breast cancer patients up to 3 years after surgery. METHODS: This cross sectional observational study was conducted at a community-based cancer rehabilitation center. Patients were evaluated for the presence of AWS via physical examination. Disease-related data was obtained from clinical review and medical records. Descriptive statistics were utilized to illustrate patient demographics and clinical characteristics. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine associations of AWS. RESULTS: There were 111 Asian women who were recruited, who had undergone breast surgery and were referred to a national outpatient rehabilitation center. The prevalence of AWS in this population was 28.9%. In the multivariate regression model, significant factors were age < 50 years (OR = 3.51; 95% CI = 1.12-11.0; p = 0.031) and ALND (OR = 6.54; 95% CI = 1.36-31.3; p = 0.019). There was reduced shoulder flexion ROM (p < 0.001) in patients with AWS compared to patients without AWS. CONCLUSIONS: A high prevalence of AWS was reported in breast cancer survivors even at 3 years after breast surgery. Our findings highlight the need to identify breast cancer survivors with AWS even in the survivorship phase, and develop strategies to raise awareness and minimize functional impairment in these patients.

Branched-Chain Amino Acids and Risk of Breast Cancer.

Background: Circulating branched-chain amino acid (BCAA) levels reflect metabolic health and dietary intake. However, associations with breast cancer are unclear. Methods: We evaluated circulating BCAA levels and breast cancer risk within the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and NHSII (1997 cases and 1997 controls). A total of 592 NHS women donated 2 blood samples 10 years apart. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of breast cancer risk in multivariable logistic regression models. We conducted an external validation in 1765 cases in the Women's Health Study (WHS). All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results: Among NHSII participants (predominantly premenopausal at blood collection), elevated circulating BCAA levels were associated with lower breast cancer risk (eg, isoleucine highest vs lowest quartile, multivariable OR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.65 to 1.13, P trend = .20), with statistically significant linear trends among fasting samples (eg, isoleucine OR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.53 to 1.05, P trend = .05). In contrast, among postmenopausal women, proximate measures (<10 years from blood draw) were associated with increased breast cancer risk (eg, isoleucine OR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.12 to 2.39, P trend = .01), with stronger associations among fasting samples (OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.15 to 2.61, P trend = .01). Distant measures (10-20 years since blood draw) were not associated with risk. In the WHS, a positive association was observed for distant measures of leucine among postmenopausal women (OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.96 to 1.58, P trend = .04). Conclusions: No statistically significant associations between BCAA levels and breast cancer risk were consistent across NHS and WHS or NHSII and WHS. Elevated circulating BCAA levels were associated with lower breast cancer risk among predominantly premenopausal NHSII women and higher risk among postmenopausal women in NHS but not in the WHS. Additional studies are needed to understand this complex relationship.

Semiquantitative analysis of interim 18F-FDG PET is superior in predicting outcome in Hodgkin lymphoma patients compared to visual analysis.

PURPOSE: To investigate the prognostic value of interim PET (PETi) in adult HL patients, comparing visual with semiquantitative analysis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis of Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) patients diagnosed between 2012 and 2016 in the Onco-hematology Department of Instituto Português de Oncologia - Porto (median follow-up: 46.5 months [2.6-66.4]). Fifty-eight patients with available PET at diagnosis (PET0) and PETi data were included. PETi scans were analyzed according to Deauville 5-point scale (5-PS), and cut-off values for changes in maximum standardized uptake value [SUVmax], peak SUV [SUVpeak], metabolic tumour volume [MTV] and total lesion glycolysis index [TLG] between PETi and PET0 were computed using ROC analysis. Visual and semiquantitative data were compared with each other in the prediction of patient outcomes. RESULTS: Semiquantitative analysis obtained a higher sensitivity for persistent/relapsed disease compared to the 5-PS (70% vs. 10%, respectively), but lower specificity. It also demonstrated better predictive performance for response to first-line therapy (negative predictive value >92%). The positive predictive value was similar for all five measurements. At 60 months of follow-up, there was a significant difference between the progression free survival (PFS) curves of patients with positive and negative PETi according to ΔSUVmax (56.9% vs. 88.0%, p<0.05), ΔSUVpeak (55.9% vs. 88.1%, p<0.05), ΔMTV (35.3% vs. 88.7%, p<0.05), and ΔTLG (42.4% vs. 88.1%, p<0.05). Statistical significance was not reached when considering 5-PS results. DISCUSSION: PETi interpretation according to a semiquantitative approach appears to discriminate HL patients better than the visual 5-PS analysis. This could allow better detection of persistent or early relapsed disease, while a negative PETi result could support de-escalating therapy intensity.

Relação da condição de cárie da criança com experiência de cárie da mãe / Relationship between the child's caries status and the mother's caries experience

Objetivo: verificar a relação da condição de cárie da criança com a experiência autopercebida de cárie da mãe através de um estudo observacional transversal. Métodos: O estudo foi realizado na Faculdade de Odontologia da Universidade Federal de Pelotas com crianças entre 8 e 11 anos e suas mães. A amostra contou com 105 pares mãe-filho. Os responsáveis responderam um questionário relacionado à situação socioeconômica e demográfica, a mãe respondeu sobre sua saúde bucal: experiência de cárie (restauração ou dente cariado e perda dentária por cárie). Nas crianças os desfechos foram avaliados através de exame clínico com a soma de dentes decíduos e permanentes cariados, perdidos e obturados (ceod/CPOD) e para severidade de cárie foi utilizado Significant Caries Index (SiC), ceod/CPOD≥3. Para testar a associação entre as variáveis relacionadas à mãe e o desfecho severidade de cárie foi realizado o teste Qui-quadrado, para média de cárie na criança (ceod/CPOD) foi utilizado o Teste Mann-Whitney. Resultados: Com relação à severidade de cárie não foi encontrada associação estatisticamente significante. A média do ceod/CPOD foi quase três vezes maior nas crianças cujas mães relataram que haviam tido ou estavam com algum dente cariado ou restaurado em função da cárie em comparação àquelas que não relataram esta experiência. As mães mais jovens apresentaram filhos com maior média de cárie do que as mães mais velhas. Conclusão: Entre as crianças atendidas neste serviço existe uma relação de uma maior média de cárie nas crianças com cujas mães tem ou tiveram experiência de cárie e mais jovens.(AU)

Objective: to verify the relationship between the child's caries condition and the mother's self-perceived caries experience through a cross-sectional observational study. Methods: The study was carried out at the Faculty of Dentistry of the Federal University of Pelotas with children between 8 and 11 years old and their mothers. The sample had 105 mother-child pairs. The guardians answered a questionnaire related to the socioeconomic and demographic situation, the mother answered about her oral health: caries experience (restoration or decayed tooth and tooth loss due to caries). In children, the outcomes were evaluated through clinical examination with the sum of decayed, missing and filled deciduous and permanent teeth (DMFT/DMFT) and for caries severity we used the Significant Caries Index (SiC), DMFT/DMFT≥3. To test the association between the variables related to the mother and the outcome of caries severity, the Chi-square test was performed, for mean caries in children (dmft/DMFT) the Mann-Whitney Test was used. Results: Regarding caries severity, no statistically significant association was found. The mean dmft/DMFT was almost three times higher in children whose mothers reported that they had had or had a decayed or restored tooth due to caries compared to those who did not report this experience. Younger mothers had children with a higher average of caries than older mothers. Conclusion: Among the children assisted in this service, there is a relation of a higher average of caries in children whose mothers have or had caries experience and younger.(AU)

Antibiotic use influences outcomes in advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients.

Recent studies defined a potentially important role of the microbiome in modulating pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and responses to therapies. We hypothesized that antibiotic usage may predict outcomes in patients with PDAC. We retrospectively analyzed clinical data of patients with resectable or metastatic PDAC seen at MD Anderson Cancer from 2003 to 2017. Demographic, chemotherapy regimen and antibiotic use, duration, type, and reason for indication were recorded. A total of 580 patients with PDAC were studied, 342 resected and 238 metastatic patients, selected retrospectively from our database. Antibiotic use, for longer than 48 hrs, was detected in 209 resected patients (61%) and 195 metastatic ones (62%). On resectable patients, we did not find differences in overall survival (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS), based on antibiotic intake. However, in the metastatic cohort, antibiotic consumption was associated with a significantly longer OS (13.3 months vs. 9.0 months, HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.34-0.7, p = 0.0001) and PFS (4.4 months vs. 2 months, HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.34-0.68, p = <0.0001). In multivariate analysis, the impact of ATB remained significant for PFS (HR 0.59, p = 0.005) and borderline statistically significant for OS (HR 0.69, p = 0.06). When we analyzed by chemotherapy regimen, we found that patients who received gemcitabine-based chemotherapy as first-line therapy (n = 118) had significantly prolonged OS (HR 0.4, p 0.0013) and PFS (HR 0.55, p 0.02) if they received antibiotics, while those receiving 5FU-based chemotherapy (n = 98) had only prolonged PFS (HR 0.54, p = 0.03). Antibiotics-associated modulation of the microbiome is associated with better outcomes in patients with metastatic PDAC.