Gerenciamento de Leitos: do Planejamento à Implementação em um Serviço Hospitalar / Hospital bed management: from planning to implementation in a hospital service

Objetivo: A falta de leitos hospitalares no Brasil é queixa comum entre usuários do Sistema Único de Saúde. Objetivo: Relatar a experiência da construção de um Serviço de Gerenciamento de leitos e apresentar a atuação do enfermeiro como gestor, em prol da visibilidade e fortalecimento da classe de enfermagem. Método: Relato de experiência da implementação da gestão de leitos de um hospital público estadual de médio porte, em um município do interior do estado de São Paulo. Resultado: A partir da implantação houve mudanças no perfil dos indicadores dos setores assistencias, com a utilização dos leitos aproveitados em sua capacidade máxima. Observou-se a diminuição da fila de espera para internação em consequência do acesso oportuno e ordenado à vaga. Conclusão: Pode-se inferir que o gerenciamento de leitos é efetivo e eficiente na gestão hospitalar com resultados operacionais e financeiros satisfatórios e um fator preponderante para a segurança e satisfação dos clientes.(AU)

Objective: The lack of hospital beds in Brazil is a common complaint among users of the Unified Health System. Objective: To report the experience of the construction of a Bed Management Service and to present the nurse's role as manager, for the visibility and strengthening of the nursing class. Method: Experience report of the implementation of bed management in a public hospital of medium size, in a city in the interior of the state of São Paulo. Result: From the implementation there were changes in the profile of the indicators of the care sectors, with the use of beds used to their maximum capacity. A reduction in the waiting list for hospitalization was observed as a result of the timely and orderly access to vacancies. Conclusion: It can be inferred that the management of beds is effective and efficient in hospital management with satisfactory operational and financial results and a preponderant factor for the customers' safety and satisfaction.(AU)

Objetivo: La falta de camas hospitalarias en Brasil es una queja común entre los usuarios del Sistema Único de Salud. Objetivo: Relatar la experiencia de la construcción de un Servicio de Gestión de camas y presentar la actuación de la enfermera como gestora, para la visibilidad y fortalecimiento de la clase de enfermería. Método: Relato de experiência da implementação da gestão de lechos de um hospital público estadual de médio porte, em um município do interior do estado de São Paulo. Resultado: A partir da implementação houve mudanças no perfil dos indicadores dos setores assistência, com o uso de camas utilizadas ao seu máximo de capacidade. Observou-se a diminuição da fila de espera para internação em consequência do acesso oportuno e ordenado à vaga. Conclusão: É possível inferir que a gestão de camas é eficaz e eficiente na gestão hospitalar com resultados operacionais e financeiros satisfatórios e um factor preponderante para a segurança e satisfação dos clientes.(AU)

Remdesivir and dexamethasone as tools to relieve hospital care systems stressed by COVID-19: A modelling study on bed resources and budget impact.

Remdesivir and dexamethasone are the only drugs providing reductions in the lengths of hospital stays for COVID-19 patients. We assessed the impacts of remdesivir on hospital-bed resources and budgets affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. A stochastic agent-based model was combined with epidemiological data available on the COVID-19 outbreak in France and data from two randomized control trials. Strategies involving treating with remdesivir only patients with low-flow oxygen and patients with low-flow and high-flow oxygen were examined. Treating all eligible low-flow oxygen patients during the entirety of the second wave would have decreased hospital-bed occupancy in conventional wards by 4% [2%; 7%] and intensive care unit (ICU)-bed occupancy by 9% [6%; 13%]. Extending remdesivir use to high-flow-oxygen patients would have amplified reductions in ICU-bed occupancy by up to 14% [18%; 11%]. A minimum remdesivir uptake of 20% was required to observe decreases in bed occupancy. Dexamethasone had effects of similar amplitude. Depending on the treatment strategy, using remdesivir would, in most cases, generate savings (up to 722€) or at least be cost neutral (an extra cost of 34€). Treating eligible patients could significantly limit the saturation of hospital capacities, particularly in ICUs. The generated savings would exceed the costs of medications.

Tomada de decisões ético-profissionais em situações de excepcionalidade à pandemia da Covid-19: revisão de escopo / Ethical-professional decision-making in exceptional situations given the Covid-19 pandemic: a scoping review / Toma de decisiones ético-profesionales en situaciones excepcionales en la pandemia de Covid-19: revisión de alcance

OBJETIVO: apresentar um panorama sobre o processo de tomada de decisões ético-profissionais em situações de excepcionalidade no início da pandemia da Covid-19. MÉTODO: trata-se de uma revisão de escopo, incluindo documentos publicados entre dezembro/2019 a julho/2020 nas seguintes bases de dados: Google Acadêmico, PubMed, Scopus, Scielo, CINAHL e BVS. Adotou-se o PRISMA-ScR Checklist para apresentação da revisão. RESULTADOS: foram selecionados 28 documentos, organizados em cinco categorias: Requisito Técnico-Médico-Científico, Justiça e Equidade, Histórico de Saúde, Comissão para Tomada de Decisão Compartilhada e Quadro Respiratório Grave. CONCLUSÃO: os critérios indicados para priorizar o processo de atenção direcionado a pacientes graves com Covid-19 foram: parâmetros técnico-médico-científico, gravidade do quadro clínico, maior idade, ser profissional da saúde, presença de doenças de base incurável, realização de sorteio e pacientes com maior probabilidade de sobrevivência.

OBJECTIVE: to present an overview of the ethical-professional decision-making process in exceptional situations at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD: this is a scoping review, including documents published between December 2019 and July 2020 in the following databases: Google Scholar, PubMed, Scopus, SciELO, CINAHL and BVS. The PRISMA-ScR Checklist was adopted to present the review. RESULTS: a total of 28 documents were selected, organized into five categories: Technical-Medical-Scientific Requirement, Justice and Equality, Health History, Commission for Shared Decision-Making and Severe Respiratory Condition. CONCLUSION: the criteria indicated to prioritize the care process targeted at critically-ill patients with COVID-19 were as follows: technical-medical-scientific parameters; severity of the clinical condition; older age; being a health professional; presence of incurable underlying diseases; carrying out draws; and patients with a higher survival probability.

OBJETIVO: presentar un panorama del proceso de toma de decisiones ético-profesionales en situaciones excepcionales al comienzo de la pandemia de Covid-19. MÉTODO: se trata de una revisión de alcance, que incluye documentos publicados entre diciembre de 2019 y julio de 2020 en las siguientes bases de datos: Google Scholar, PubMed, Scopus, Scielo, CINAHL y BVS. Se adoptó la PRISMA-ScR Checklist para presentar la revisión. RESULTADOS: fueron seleccionados 28 documentos, organizados en cinco categorías: Requerimiento Médico Científico Técnico, Justicia y Equidad, Historial de Salud, Comisión para la Toma de Decisiones Compartidas y Cuadro Respiratorio Grave. CONCLUSIÓN: los criterios señalados para priorizar el proceso de atención dirigido a pacientes críticos con Covid-19 fueron: parámetros médicos científicos técnicos, gravedad del cuadro clínico, mayor edad, ser profesional de la salud, presencia de enfermedades de base incurables, realizar sorteos y pacientes con mayor probabilidad de supervivencia.

Leitos de Unidade de Terapia Intensiva Pediátrico no Sistema Único de Saúde: uma análise das solicitações à Central de Regulação do município do Rio de Janeiro / Pediatric Intensive Care Unit beds in the Unified Health System: an analysis of requests to the Regulation Center in the city of Rio de Janeiro

A portaria 1559/2008 caracteriza-se como um marco legal no processo de regulação de leitos no Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS). Os pacientes pediátricos apresentam especificidade que aumentam os desafios aos gestores de saúde para disponibilizar leitos de terapia intensiva adequados a esta clientela. Dispor de informações a respeito dos fatores que impactam na solução das solicitações pode contribuir para o melhor planejamento do fluxo regulatório, permitindo o aprimoramento deste. Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo avaliar o perfil, o tempo de tramitação e os fatores associados às solicitações de leitos de Unidades de Terapia Intensiva Pediátrica via Central de Regulação do SUS no município do Rio de Janeiro no ano de 2018. Foi realizado um estudo transversal com dados do acervo de solicitações de leitos de Unidade de Terapia Intensiva Pediátrica à Central Municipal do Rio de Janeiro de janeiro a dezembro de 2018. Os dados das características dos pacientes, prestadores de serviço e processo regulatório foram extraídos dos campos abertos das solicitações registradas. Para tanto, elaborou-se um formulário em parceira com profissionais de saúde da central de regulação do município do Rio de Janeiro. As variáveis categóricas foram descritas pela frequência absoluta e seus percentuais. Os dados numéricos foram descritos pela média e desvio padrão. O teste de Qui-quadrado e o odds ratio (com intervalo de confiança de 95%) foram utilizados, respectivamente, para avaliar as variáveis relacionadas com o tempo oportuno para captação de leito e a sua força de associação. O modelo de árvore de regressão auxiliou na identificação e hierarquização dos fatores relacionados aos diferentes motivos de encerramento de uma solicitação. Observou-se que solicitações classificadas como sendo de emergência ou realizadas a prestadores que ofertam leitos exclusivamente para o SUS aumentam a chance de uma solicitação ser resolvida em menos de 24 horas. O modelo de árvore de regressão indicou que a variação do tempo de tramitação e solução das solicitações estava associada primeiramente a questões jurídico administrativas e de infraestrutura dos prestadores de serviço e posteriormente às questões clínico-epidemiológica dos pacientes, entretanto, em apenas 3,9% das solicitações a não captação dos leitos foi precedida por óbito. Este estudo permitiu uma análise exploratória do processo regulatório como um todo, com ênfase no período proposto, contribuindo para uma compreensão não só da relevância deste para o andamento do sistema de saúde, assim como do fluxo de informações.

Ministerial decree 1559/2008 is characterized as a legal framework in the process of regulating beds in the Unified Health System (SUS). Pediatric patients have specificities that increase the challenges for health managers to provide adequate intensive care beds for this public. Having information about the factors that impact the resolution of requests can contribute to better planning the regulatory flow, allowing for its improvement. This research aims to analyze requests for beds in pediatric intensive care units at the SUS regulation center in the city of Rio de Janeiro. A cross-sectional study was carried out with data from the collection of requests for beds from the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit to the Municipal Center of Rio de Janeiro from January to December 2018. Data on patient characteristics, service providers and regulatory process were extracted from the open fields from registered requests. To this end, a form was developed in partnership with health professionals from the regulation center of the city of Rio de Janeiro. Categorical variables were described by absolute frequency and their percentages. Numerical data were described by the mean and the standard deviation. The chi-square test and the odds ratio (with a 95% confidence interval) were used, respectively, to assess the variables related to the timing of bed capture and their strength of association. The regression tree model helped to identify and prioritize the factors related to the different reasons for closing a request. It was observed that requests classified as emergency or made to providers that offer beds exclusively for the SUS increase the chance of a request being resolved in less than 24 hours. The regression tree model indicated that the variation in the processing time and resolution of requests is associated primarily with legal administrative and infrastructure issues of service providers and later with clinical epidemiological issues of patients. However, in only 3.9% of not capturing beds requests are preceded by death. This study allowed an exploratory analysis of the regulatory process, contributing to an understanding not only of its relevance to the progress of the health system, but also of the flow of information.

Emprego do modelo matemático SEIHDR para auxiliar gestores na estimativa de ocupação de leitos de UTI em uma pandemia: simulação para pacientes com COVID-19 no município de Porto Alegre / Use of the SEIHDR mathematical model to assist health managers in estimating ICU bed occupancy in a pandemic: simulation for patients with COVID-19 in the city of Porto Alegre, Brazil

Introdução: A pandemia de COVID-19, no Brasil, constituiu uma ameaça ao sistema de saúde pelo risco de esgotamento dos leitos de Unidade de Terapia Intensiva (UTI). O objetivo do estudo foi projetar a ocupação de leitos de UTI com casos de COVID-19 no pico em Porto Alegre. Para isso, resolvemos utilizar uma ferramenta matemática com parâmetros da pandemia desta cidade.Métodos:Utilizamos o modelo matemático SEIHDR. Analisamos os casos de hospitalização por COVID-19 em Porto Alegre e RS até 3 de agosto de 2020 a fim de extrair os parâmetros locais para construir uma curva epidemiológica do total de casos prevalentes hospitalizados em UTI. Também analisamos as taxas de reprodução básica (R0) e reprodução efetiva (Re).Resultados: O modelo matemático projetou um pico de 344 casos prevalentes, em UTI, para o dia 22 de agosto de 2020. Calculamos 1,56 para o R0 e 1,08 no dia 3 de agosto para o Re.Conclusão: O modelo matemático simulou uma primeira onda de casos ocupando leitos de UTI muito próxima dos dados reais. Também indicou corretamente uma queda no número de casos nos dois meses subsequentes. Apesar das limitações, as estimativas do modelo matemático forneceram informações sobre as dimensões temporal e numérica de uma pandemia que poderiam ser usadas como auxílio aos gestores de saúde na tomada de decisões para a alocação de recursos frente a calamidades de saúde como o surto de COVID-19 no Brasil.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil has been a threat to health services due to the risk of bed shortage in the intensive care unit (ICU). This study aimed to estimate the bed occupancy at the ICU with patients with COVID-19 during the peak of the pandemic in Porto Alegre, capital of Rio Grande do Sul (RS), the southernmost state of Brazil. To this end, we used a mathematical model with pandemic parameters from the city.Methods: We used the SEIHDR mathematical model. We analyzed hospitalizations for COVID-19 in Porto Alegre and RS until August 3, 2020, to extract local parameters to create an epidemiological curve of the total number of prevalent cases in the ICU. We also analyzed the basic reproduction rate (R0) and effective reproduction rate (Re). Results: The mathematical model estimated a peak of 344 prevalent cases in the ICU on August 22, 2020. The model calculated an R0 of 1.56 and Re of 1.08 on August 3, 2020.Conclusion: The mathematical model accurately estimated the first peak of cases in the ICU. Also, it correctly indicated a drop in the number of cases in the following two months. Despite the limitations, the mathematical model estimates provided information on the temporal and numerical dimensions of a pandemic that could be used to assist health managers in making decisions on the allocation of resources in a state of public calamity such as the COVID-19 outbreak in Brazil.

Audit of surgical specialty patients and beds at Pietersburg Hospital, Limpopo Province, South Africa in 2021.

BACKGROUND: While the absolute number of hospital beds is usually discussed, adequate utilisation of beds is a far better instrument to measure departmental efficiency. OBJECTIVE: To measure the number of beds for each surgical specialty in Pietersburg Hospital as well as the average length of stay (LoS) to compare bed utilisation. METHOD: We conducted a 1-day descriptive cross-sectional audit of patients admitted to surgical wards on 21 April 2021 at Pietersburg Hospital. RESULTS: There were huge discrepancies in the number of beds per surgical specialty as well as the LoS. Over one-third of surgical beds were occupied by patients waiting for either a computed tomography scan, surgical procedure, or transfer. CONCLUSION: There is a need to address the functioning of the surgical specialties with regards to the number of beds allocated as well as the ideal average length of stay.

Aggression on the psychiatric ward: Prevalence and risk factors. A systematic review of the literature.

INTRODUCTION: On psychiatric wards, aggressive behaviour displayed by patients is common and problematic. Understanding factors associated with the development of aggression offers possibilities for prevention and targeted interventions. This review discusses factors that contribute to the development of aggression on psychiatric wards. METHOD: In Pubmed and Embase, a search was performed aimed at: prevalence data, ward characteristics, patient and staff factors that are associated with aggressive behaviour and from this search 146 studies were included. RESULTS: The prevalence of aggressive behaviour on psychiatric wards varied (8-76%). Explanatory factors of aggressive behaviour were subdivided into patient, staff and ward factors. Patient risk factors were diagnosis of psychotic disorder or bipolar disorder, substance abuse, a history of aggression, younger age. Staff risk factors included male gender, unqualified or temporary staff, job strain, dissatisfaction with the job or management, burn-out and quality of the interaction between patients and staff. Staff protective factors were a good functioning team, good leadership and being involved in treatment decisions. Significant ward risk factors were a higher bed occupancy, busy places on the ward, walking rounds, an unsafe environment, a restrictive environment, lack of structure in the day, smoking and lack of privacy. CONCLUSION: Despite a lack of prospective quantitative data, results did show that aggression arises from a combination of patient factors, staff factors and ward factors. Patient factors were studied most often, however, besides treatment, offering the least possibilities in prevention of aggression development. Future studies should focus more on the earlier stages of aggression such as agitation and on factors that are better suited for preventing aggression such as ward and staff factors. Management and clinicians could adapt staffing and ward in line with these results.

Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England.

BACKGROUND: Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient's "bed pathway" - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. METHODS: We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. RESULTS: In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: "Ward, CC, Ward", "Ward, CC", "CC" and "CC, Ward". Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. CONCLUSIONS: We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occupancy for COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study ISRCTN66726260 was retrospectively registered on 21/04/2020 and designated an Urgent Public Health Research Study by NIHR.

The Association of Workload and Outcomes in the Pediatric Cardiac ICU.

OBJECTIVES: Healthcare workload has emerged as an important metric associated with poor outcomes. To measure workload, studies have used bed occupancy as a surrogate. However, few studies have examined frontline provider (fellows, nurse practitioners, physician assistants) workload and outcomes. We hypothesize frontline provider workload, measured by bed occupancy and staffing, is associated with poor outcomes and unnecessary testing. DESIGN: A retrospective single-center, time-stamped orders, ordering provider identifiers, and patient data were collected. Regression was performed to study the influence of occupancy on orders, length of stay, and mortality, controlling for age, weight, admission type, Society of Thoracic Surgery-European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery Congenital Heart Surgery Mortality score, diagnosis, number of surgeries, orders, provider staffing, attending experience, and time fixed effects. SETTING: Twenty-seven bed tertiary cardiac ICU in a free-standing children's hospital. PATIENTS: Patients (0-18 yr) admitted to the pediatric cardiac ICU, January 2018 to December 2019. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were 16,500 imaging and 73,113 laboratory orders among 1,468 patient admissions. Median age 6 months (12 d to 5 yr), weight 6.2 kg (3.7-16.2 kg); 840 (57.2%) surgical and 628 (42.8%) medical patients. ICU teams consisted of 16 attendings and 31 frontline providers. Mortality 4.4%, median stay 5 days (2-11 d), and median bed occupancy 89% (78-93%). Every 10% increase in bed occupancy had 7.2% increase in imaging orders per patient (p < 0.01), 3% longer laboratory turn-around time (p = 0.015), and 3 additional days (p < 0.01). Higher staffing (> 3 providers) was associated with 6% less imaging (p = 0.03) and 3% less laboratory orders (p = 0.04). The number of "busy days" (bed occupancy > 89%) was associated with longer stays (p < 0.01), and increased mortality (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Increased bed occupancy and lower staffing were associated with increased mortality, length of stay, imaging orders, and laboratory turn-around time. The data demonstrate performance of the cardiac ICU system is exacerbated during high occupancy and low staffing.

Drastic reduction of orthopaedic services at an urban tertiary hospital in South Africa during COVID-19: Lessons for the future response to the pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted on the global surgery landscape. OBJECTIVES: To analyse and describe the initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on orthopaedic surgery at Groote Schuur Hospital, a tertiary academic hospital in South Africa. METHODS: The number of orthopaedic surgical cases, emergency theatre patient waiting times, and numbers of outpatient clinic visits, ward admissions, bed occupancies and total inpatient days for January - April 2019 (pre-COVID-19) were compared with the same time frame in 2020 (COVID-19). The COVID-19 timeframe included initiation of a national 'hard lockdown' from 26 March 2020, in preparation for an increasing volume of COVID-19 cases. RESULTS: April 2020, the time of the imposed hard lockdown, was the most affected month, although the number of surgical cases had started to decrease slowly during the 3 preceding months. The total number of surgeries, outpatient visits and ward admissions decreased significantly during April 2020 (55.2%, 69.1% and 60.6%, respectively) compared with April 2019 (p<0.05). Trauma cases were reduced by 40% in April 2020. Overall emergency theatre patient waiting time was 30% lower for April 2020 compared with 2019. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 and the associated lockdown has heavily impacted on both orthopaedic inpatient and outpatient services. Lockdown led to a larger reduction in the orthopaedic trauma burden than in international centres, but the overall reduction in surgeries, outpatient visits and hospital admissions was less. This lesser reduction was probably due to local factors, but also to a conscious decision to avoid total collapse of our surgical services.

Assessment of surgeon and hospital volume for robot-assisted and laparoscopic benign hysterectomy in Sweden.

INTRODUCTION: The study aims to analyze differences between robot-assisted total laparoscopic hysterectomy (RATLH) and total laparoscopic hysterectomy (TLH) in benign indications, emphasizing surgeon and hospital volume. MATERIAL AND METHODS: All women in Sweden undergoing a total hysterectomy for benign indications with or without a bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 (n = 12 386) were identified from three national Swedish registers. Operative time, blood loss, conversion rate, complications, readmission, reoperation, length of hospital stays, and time to daily life activity were evaluated by univariable and multivariable regression models in RATLH and TLH. Surgeon and hospital volume were obtained from the Swedish National Quality Register of Gynecological Surgery and divided into subclasses. RESULTS: TLH was associated with a higher rate of intraoperative complications (adjusted odds ratios [aOR] 2.8, 95% CI 1.3-5.8) and postoperative bleeding complications (aOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.9) compared with RATLH. Intraoperative data showed a higher conversion rate (aOR 13.5, 95% CI 7.2-25.4), a higher blood loss (200-500 mL aOR 3.5, 95% CI 2.7-4.7; > 500 mL aOR 7.6, 95% CI 4.0-14.6) and a longer operative time (1-2 h aOR 16.7 95% CI 10.2-27.5; >2 h aOR 47.6, 95% CI 27.9-81.1) in TLH compared with RATLH. The TLH group had a lower caseload per year than the RATLH group. Higher surgical volume was associated with lower median blood loss, shorter operative time, a lower conversion rate, and a lower perioperative complication rate. Differences in conversion rate or operative time in RATLH were not affected by surgeon volume when compared with TLH. One year after surgery, patient satisfaction was higher in RATLH than in TLH (aOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4-0.9). CONCLUSIONS: RATLH led to better perioperative outcome and higher patient satisfaction 1 year after surgery. These outcome differences were slightly more pronounced in very low-volume surgeons but persisted across all surgeon volume groups.

Estimating Brazilian states demands for intensive care unit and clinical hospital beds during the COVID-19 pandemic: development of a predictive model

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: The fragility of healthcare systems worldwide had not been exposed by any pandemic until now. The lack of integrated methods for bed capacity planning compromises the effectiveness of public and private hospitals' services. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the provision of intensive care unit and clinical beds for Brazilian states, using an integrated model. DESIGN AND SETTING: Experimental study applying healthcare informatics to data on COVID-19 cases from the official electronic platform of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS: A predictive model based on the historical records of Brazilian states was developed to estimate the need for hospital beds during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: The proposed model projected in advance that there was a lack of 22,771 hospital beds for Brazilian states, of which 38.95% were ICU beds, and 61.05% were clinical beds. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed approach provides valuable information to help hospital managers anticipate actions for improving healthcare system capacity.

Covid-19 no nordeste do Brasil: entre o lockdown e o relaxamento das medidas de distanciamento social / Covid-19 in the Northeast of Brazil: from lockdown to the relaxation of social distancing measures

Resumo Mesmo no período em que a pandemia de Covid-19 encontrava-se em crescimento no Nordeste do Brasil, iniciou-se a adoção de medidas de flexibilização do distanciamento social. O objetivo do estudo é o de avaliar a pertinência das propostas de flexibilização, tomando-se em conta a situação da pandemia em cada local e o momento em que foram adotadas. Tendo como referência as diretrizes da OMS, foram construídos e analisados indicadores operacionais para cada diretriz, no contexto da região Nordeste. Para análise do comportamento da epidemia, conforme indicadores selecionados, foram usadas técnicas de Joinpoint Trend Analysis, mapas de calor, razão de taxas e comparação da tendência temporal entre capitais e interior dos estados. O pico do crescimento semanal ocorreu em maio-julho/2020 (semanas epidemiológicas 19 a 31). Na maioria das capitais não se observou tendência decrescente simultânea do número de casos e óbitos nos 14 dias prévios à flexibilização. Em todos os estados o quantitativo de testes realizados foi insuficiente. Na semana epidemiológica 24 os percentuais estaduais de ocupação de leitos de UTI/Covid-19 foram próximos ou superiores 70%. A situação epidemiológica das nove capitais dos estados do Nordeste, no momento em que a decisão de flexibilização foi tomada, mostra que nenhuma delas atendia aos critérios e parâmetros recomendados pela OMS.

Abstract Even in the period when the Covid-19 pandemic was on the rise in the Northeast of Brazil, the relaxation of social distancing measures was introduced. The scope of the study is to assess, in the light of the epidemiological-sanitary situation in the region, the suitability of relaxation of social distancing measures. Based on the WHO guidelines for relaxation of social distancing, operational indicators were created and analyzed for each guideline in the context of the Northeast. To analyze the behavior of the epidemic, according to selected indicators, Joinpoint trend analysis techniques, heat maps, rate ratios and time trends between capitals and the state interior were compared. The weekly growth peak of the epidemic occurred in May-July 2020 (epidemiological weeks 19 to 31). In most capitals, there was no simultaneous downward trend in the number of cases and deaths in the 14 days prior to flexibilization. In all states the number of tests performed was insufficient. In epidemiological week 24, the state percentages of ICU/Covid-19 bed occupancy were close to or above 70%. The epidemiological situation of the nine Northeastern state capitals analyzed here did not meet criteria and parameters recommended by the World Health Organization for the relaxation of social distancing measures.

Healthcare indicators associated with COVID-19 death rates in the European Union.

OBJECTIVES: Identification of environmental and hospital indicators that may influence coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality in different countries is essential for better management of this infectious disease. STUDY DESIGN: Correlation analysis between healthcare system indicators and COVID-19 mortality rate in Europe. METHODS: For each country in the European Union (EU), the date of the first diagnosed case and the crude death rate for COVID-19 were retrieved from the John Hopkins University website. These data were then combined with environmental, hospital and clinical indicators extracted from the European Health Information Gateway of the World Health Organization. RESULTS: The COVID-19 death rate in EU countries (mean 1.9 ± 0.8%) was inversely associated with the number of available general hospitals, physicians and nurses. Significant positive associations were also found with the rate of acute care bed occupancy, as well as with the proportion of population who were aged older than 65 years, overweight or who had cancer. Total healthcare expenditure, public sector health expenditure and the number of hospital and acute care beds did not influence COVID-19 death rate. CONCLUSIONS: Some common healthcare system inadequacies, such as limited numbers of general hospitals, physicians and nurses, in addition to high acute care bed occupancy, may be significant drivers of nationwide COVID-19 mortality rates in EU countries.

Análisis de la demanda asistencial en la urgencia y unidad de hospitalización psiquiátrica en el contexto de pandemia por COVID-19 / Analysis of the demand for care in a psychiatric emergency room and an acute inpatient unit in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

INTRODUCCIÓN: El objetivo consiste en analizar el impacto del COVID-19 en la demanda asistencial de las urgencias y en los ingresos psiquiátricos durante el primer mes de la pandemia. MÉTODOS: Realizamos un estudio transversal observacional retrospectivo en pacientes que acuden a urgencias psiquiátricas entre el 11 de marzo y el 11 de abril de 2019 y 2020 respectivamente. Se incluyeron variables sociodemográficas y clínicas en el estudio. Se realizaron las pruebas de Chi Cuadrado o Test exacto de Fisher para el contraste de hipótesis de variables categóricas y la prueba U Mann-Whitney para el contraste de variables cuantitativas. El nivel de significación estadística se estableció en p<0.05. Los análisis se realizaron con IBM SPSS Statistics. RESULTADOS: Se observa un descenso significativo de la media de pacientes atendidos al día en urgencias entre ambos periodos, siendo esta de 5,91 (±2,53) en 2019 y de 2,41 (±1,81) en 2020 (p<0.001). Se ha visto una disminución significativa de la ocupación media de camas en la UHB, ocupándose un 91,84% (±7,72) de camas en 2019 y un 58,85% (±13,81) en 2020 (p<0,001). En cuanto a la proporción de ingresos de los pacientes que acuden a urgencias, se ha visto un aumento significativo en el año 2020 respecto al año anterior. CONCLUSIONES: La demanda en la urgencia de pacientes psiquiátricos y la ocupación media de camas se ha reducido durante el primer mes tras la declaración de la pandemia. El miedo al contagio puede actuar como modulador de la demanda psiquiátrica.

INTRODUCTION: The aim is to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the demand for emergency care and psychiatric admissions during the first month of the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, observational and cross-sectional study. We reviewed the clinical records of all patients attending the psychiatric emergency room (ER) between March 11th and April 11th, of both 2019 and 2020. Sociodemographic and clinical variables were included in the study. Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test were performed to compare categorical variables, while U Mann-Whitney U test was used for quantitative variables. The level of statistical significance was set at p<0.05. Analysis were conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics. RESULTS: The was a significant decrease in the number of patients attended in the ER. An average of 5.91 (±2.53) patients were treated per day in 2019 compared to 2.41 (±1.81) in 2020 (p<0.001). There was also a significant decrease in the occupancy rate at the inpatient psychiatric unit, with a 91.84% (±7.72) of beds occupied in 2019 and only 58.85% (±13.81) in 2020 (p<0.001). Regarding the percentage of patients admitted after assessment in the ER, there was a significant increase in 2020 compared to the previous year. CONCLUSIONS: The demand for care in the psychiatric emergency room and the average bed occupancy have decreased during the first month after the declaration of the pandemic. Fear of contagion may act as a modulator of psychiatric demand.

Developing a nursing dependency scoring tool for children's palliative care: the impact on hospice care.

BACKGROUND: Occupancy is commonly used to measure bed management in hospices. However, the increasing complexity of children and young people and growing dependence on technology mean that this is no longer effective. AIM: To develop a dependency tool that enables the hospice to safely and effectively manage the use of beds for planned short breaks (respite care), preserving capacity for children requiring symptom management and end-of-life care. METHODS: A comprehensive literature review and existing tools were used to inform the development of the Martin House Dependency Tool Framework. Training was provided to staff and the tool was piloted before applying it across the hospice caseload. FINDINGS: The tool has been used on 431 children (93.1% of caseload). The tool enabled consistency of assessment and more effective management of resources, due to a contemporaneous understanding of the clinical needs of those on the caseload. CONCLUSION: The tool has enabled consistent and transparent assessment of children, improving safety, effectiveness and responsiveness, and the management of the workforce and resources.

How Many Intensive Care Beds are Justifiable for Hospital Pandemic Preparedness? A Cost-effectiveness Analysis for COVID-19 in Germany.

INTRODUCTION: Germany is experiencing the second COVID-19 pandemic wave. The intensive care unit (ICU) bed capacity is an important consideration in the response to the pandemic. The purpose of this study was to determine the costs and benefits of maintaining or expanding a staffed ICU bed reserve capacity in Germany. METHODS: This study compared the provision of additional capacity to no intervention from a societal perspective. A decision model was developed using, e.g. information on age-specific fatality rates, ICU costs and outcomes, and the herd protection threshold. The net monetary benefit (NMB) was calculated based upon the willingness to pay for new medicines for the treatment of cancer, a condition with a similar disease burden in the near term. RESULTS: The marginal cost-effectiveness ratio (MCER) of the last bed added to the existing ICU capacity is €21,958 per life-year gained assuming full bed utilization. The NMB decreases with an additional expansion but remains positive for utilization rates as low as 2%. In a sensitivity analysis, the variables with the highest impact on the MCER were the mortality rates in the ICU and after discharge. CONCLUSIONS: This article demonstrates the applicability of cost-effectiveness analysis to policies of hospital pandemic preparedness and response capacity strengthening. In Germany, the provision of a staffed ICU bed reserve capacity appears to be cost-effective even for a low probability of bed utilization.

Does volume or occupancy influence emergency access block? A multivariate time series analysis from a single emergency department in Sydney, Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: The study aims to determine whether ED presentation volume or hospital occupancy had a greater impact on ED performance before and during the COVID-19 health response at a tertiary referral hospital in Sydney, Australia. METHODS: Single centre time series analysis using routinely collected hospital and ED data from January 2019 to September 2020. The primary outcome was ED access block measured by emergency treatment performance (ETP; i.e. percentage of patients who were discharged or transferred to a ward from ED within 4 h of ED arrival time). Secondary outcomes were hospital occupancy, elective theatre cases and ambulance ramping. Multivariate time series analysis was performed using vector autoregression, to model effects of changes in various endogenous and correlated variables on ETP. RESULTS: There was an increase in ETP, drop in ED presentations and decrease in hospital occupancy between April and June 2020. Elective surgery and hospital occupancy had significant effects up to 2 days prior on ETP, while there were no significant effects of either ED or ambulance presentations on ETP. Hospital occupancy itself increased with ED presentations after 2-4 days and decreased with elective surgery after 1 day. Shocks (a one standard deviation increase) in hospital occupancy had a peak impact nearly two times greater compared to ED presentations (-1.43, 95% confidence interval -1.92, -0.93 vs -0.73, 95% confidence interval -1.21, -0.25). CONCLUSION: The main determinants of the reduction of ED overcrowding and access block during the pandemic were associated with reductions in hospital occupancy and elective surgery levels, and more research is required to assess more complex associations beyond the scope of this manuscript.

Demographic and public health characteristics explain large part of variability in COVID-19 mortality across countries.

BACKGROUND: The numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths per million people differ widely across countries. Often, the causal effects of interventions taken by authorities are unjustifiably concluded based on the comparison of pure mortalities in countries where interventions consisting different strategies have been taken. Moreover, the possible effects of other factors are only rarely considered. METHODS: We used data from open databases (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, World Bank Open Data, The BCG World Atlas) and publications to develop a model that could largely explain the differences in cumulative mortality between countries using non-interventional (mostly socio-demographic) factors. RESULTS: Statistically significant associations with the logarithmic COVID-19 mortality were found with the following: proportion of people aged 80 years and above, population density, proportion of urban population, gross domestic product, number of hospital beds per population, average temperature in March and incidence of tuberculosis. The final model could explain 67% of the variability. This finding could also be interpreted as follows: less than a third of the variability in logarithmic mortality differences could be modified by diverse non-pharmaceutical interventions ranging from case isolation to comprehensive measures, constituting case isolation, social distancing of the entire population and closure of schools and borders. CONCLUSIONS: In particular countries, the number of people who will die from COVID-19 is largely given by factors that cannot be drastically changed as an immediate reaction to the pandemic and authorities should focus on modifiable variables, e.g. the number of hospital beds.