Continuing benefits of the Montreal Protocol and protection of the stratospheric ozone layer for human health and the environment.

The protection of Earth's stratospheric ozone (O3) is an ongoing process under the auspices of the universally ratified Montreal Protocol and its Amendments and adjustments. A critical part of this process is the assessment of the environmental issues related to changes in O3. The United Nations Environment Programme's Environmental Effects Assessment Panel provides annual scientific evaluations of some of the key issues arising in the recent collective knowledge base. This current update includes a comprehensive assessment of the incidence rates of skin cancer, cataract and other skin and eye diseases observed worldwide; the effects of UV radiation on tropospheric oxidants, and air and water quality; trends in breakdown products of fluorinated chemicals and recent information of their toxicity; and recent technological innovations of building materials for greater resistance to UV radiation. These issues span a wide range of topics, including both harmful and beneficial effects of exposure to UV radiation, and complex interactions with climate change. While the Montreal Protocol has succeeded in preventing large reductions in stratospheric O3, future changes may occur due to a number of natural and anthropogenic factors. Thus, frequent assessments of potential environmental impacts are essential to ensure that policies remain based on the best available scientific knowledge.

Stratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions.

This assessment provides a comprehensive update of the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone and other factors (aerosols, surface reflectivity, solar activity, and climate) on the intensity of ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth's surface. The assessment is performed in the context of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and its Amendments and Adjustments. Changes in UV radiation at low- and mid-latitudes (0-60°) during the last 25 years have generally been small (e.g., typically less than 4% per decade, increasing at some sites and decreasing at others) and were mostly driven by changes in cloud cover and atmospheric aerosol content, caused partly by climate change and partly by measures to control tropospheric pollution. Without the Montreal Protocol, erythemal (sunburning) UV irradiance at northern and southern latitudes of less than 50° would have increased by 10-20% between 1996 and 2020. For southern latitudes exceeding 50°, the UV Index (UVI) would have surged by between 25% (year-round at the southern tip of South America) and more than 100% (South Pole in spring). Variability of erythemal irradiance in Antarctica was very large during the last four years. In spring 2019, erythemal UV radiation was at the minimum of the historical (1991-2018) range at the South Pole, while near record-high values were observed in spring 2020, which were up to 80% above the historical mean. In the Arctic, some of the highest erythemal irradiances on record were measured in March and April 2020. For example in March 2020, the monthly average UVI over a site in the Canadian Arctic was up to 70% higher than the historical (2005-2019) average, often exceeding this mean by three standard deviations. Under the presumption that all countries will adhere to the Montreal Protocol in the future and that atmospheric aerosol concentrations remain constant, erythemal irradiance at mid-latitudes (30-60°) is projected to decrease between 2015 and 2090 by 2-5% in the north and by 4-6% in the south due to recovering ozone. Changes projected for the tropics are ≤ 3%. However, in industrial regions that are currently affected by air pollution, UV radiation will increase as measures to reduce air pollutants will gradually restore UV radiation intensities to those of a cleaner atmosphere. Since most substances controlled by the Montreal Protocol are also greenhouse gases, the phase-out of these substances may have avoided warming by 0.5-1.0 °C over mid-latitude regions of the continents, and by more than 1.0 °C in the Arctic; however, the uncertainty of these calculations is large. We also assess the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on climate, focusing on the poleward shift of climate zones, and discuss the role of the small Antarctic ozone hole in 2019 on the devastating "Black Summer" fires in Australia. Additional topics include the assessment of advances in measuring and modeling of UV radiation; methods for determining personal UV exposure; the effect of solar radiation management (stratospheric aerosol injections) on UV radiation relevant for plants; and possible revisions to the vitamin D action spectrum, which describes the wavelength dependence of the synthesis of previtamin D3 in human skin upon exposure to UV radiation.

Interactive effects of changes in UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and feedbacks to the climate system.

Terrestrial organisms and ecosystems are being exposed to new and rapidly changing combinations of solar UV radiation and other environmental factors because of ongoing changes in stratospheric ozone and climate. In this Quadrennial Assessment, we examine the interactive effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the context of the Montreal Protocol. We specifically assess effects on terrestrial organisms, agriculture and food supply, biodiversity, ecosystem services and feedbacks to the climate system. Emphasis is placed on the role of extreme climate events in altering the exposure to UV radiation of organisms and ecosystems and the potential effects on biodiversity. We also address the responses of plants to increased temporal variability in solar UV radiation, the interactive effects of UV radiation and other climate change factors (e.g. drought, temperature) on crops, and the role of UV radiation in driving the breakdown of organic matter from dead plant material (i.e. litter) and biocides (pesticides and herbicides). Our assessment indicates that UV radiation and climate interact in various ways to affect the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and that by protecting the ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol continues to play a vital role in maintaining healthy, diverse ecosystems on land that sustain life on Earth. Furthermore, the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment are mitigating some of the negative environmental consequences of climate change by limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting the carbon sequestration potential of vegetation and the terrestrial carbon pool.

On-line trace monitoring of volatile halogenated compounds in air by improved thermal desorption-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry.

Volatile halogenated compounds (VHCs) are important industrial chemicals and play a crucial role in potential stratospheric ozone-depletion and global warming. Profiling of VHCs is of great significance but replete with challenges due to the species' richness and diversity. In this study, we developed a novel method employing water removal mode combined with thermal desorption-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (TD-GC-MS) for on-line measurement of VHCs at the ultratrace level. By removing water with Nafion dryer tandem cold trap device, VHCs could achieve better separation and identification, and detection precision of VHCs lower than 10%. The proposed method exhibited limits of detection for VHCs ranging from 0.1 to 6.2 pptv. Benefiting from the improved trapping efficiency due to water removal, we successfully quantified 34 VHCs at the Shangdianzi background station and achieved a comprehensive assessment of VHCs in ambient air.

Oxidation and fragmentation of plastics in a changing environment; from UV-radiation to biological degradation.

Understanding the fate of plastics in the environment is of critical importance for the quantitative assessment of the biological impacts of plastic waste. Specially, there is a need to analyze in more detail the reputed longevity of plastics in the context of plastic degradation through oxidation and fragmentation reactions. Photo-oxidation of plastic debris by solar UV radiation (UVR) makes material prone to subsequent fragmentation. The fragments generated following oxidation and subsequent exposure to mechanical stresses include secondary micro- or nanoparticles, an emerging class of pollutants. The paper discusses the UV-driven photo-oxidation process, identifying relevant knowledge gaps and uncertainties. Serious gaps in knowledge exist concerning the wavelength sensitivity and the dose-response of the photo-fragmentation process. Given the heterogeneity of natural UV irradiance varying from no exposure in sediments to full UV exposure of floating, beach litter or air-borne plastics, it is argued that the rates of UV-driven degradation/fragmentation will also vary dramatically between different locations and environmental niches. Biological phenomena such as biofouling will further modulate the exposure of plastics to UV radiation, while potentially also contributing to degradation and/or fragmentation of plastics independent of solar UVR. Reductions in solar UVR in many regions, consequent to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments for protecting stratospheric ozone, will have consequences for global UV-driven plastic degradation in a heterogeneous manner across different geographic and environmental zones. The interacting effects of global warming, stratospheric ozone and UV radiation are projected to increase UV irradiance at the surface in localized areas, mainly because of decreased cloud cover. Given the complexity and uncertainty of future environmental conditions, this currently precludes reliable quantitative predictions of plastic persistence on a global scale.

The Montreal Protocol protects the terrestrial carbon sink.

The control of the production of ozone-depleting substances through the Montreal Protocol means that the stratospheric ozone layer is recovering1 and that consequent increases in harmful surface ultraviolet radiation are being avoided2,3. The Montreal Protocol has co-benefits for climate change mitigation, because ozone-depleting substances are potent greenhouse gases4-7. The avoided ultraviolet radiation and climate change also have co-benefits for plants and their capacity to store carbon through photosynthesis8, but this has not previously been investigated. Here, using a modelling framework that couples ozone depletion, climate change, damage to plants by ultraviolet radiation and the carbon cycle, we explore the benefits of avoided increases in ultraviolet radiation and changes in climate on the terrestrial biosphere and its capacity as a carbon sink. Considering a range of strengths for the effect of ultraviolet radiation on plant growth8-12, we estimate that there could have been 325-690 billion tonnes less carbon held in plants and soils by the end of this century (2080-2099) without the Montreal Protocol (as compared to climate projections with controls on ozone-depleting substances). This change could have resulted in an additional 115-235 parts per million of atmospheric carbon dioxide, which might have led to additional warming of global-mean surface temperature by 0.50-1.0 degrees. Our findings suggest that the Montreal Protocol may also be helping to mitigate climate change through avoided decreases in the land carbon sink.

Human health in relation to exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation under changing stratospheric ozone and climate.

The Montreal Protocol has limited increases in the UV-B (280-315 nm) radiation reaching the Earth's surface as a result of depletion of stratospheric ozone. Nevertheless, the incidence of skin cancers continues to increase in most light-skinned populations, probably due mainly to risky sun exposure behaviour. In locations with strong sun protection programs of long duration, incidence is now reducing in younger age groups. Changes in the epidemiology of UV-induced eye diseases are less clear, due to a lack of data. Exposure to UV radiation plays a role in the development of cataracts, pterygium and possibly age-related macular degeneration; these are major causes of visual impairment world-wide. Photodermatoses and phototoxic reactions to drugs are not uncommon; management of the latter includes recognition of the risks by the prescribing physician. Exposure to UV radiation has benefits for health through the production of vitamin D in the skin and modulation of immune function. The latter has benefits for skin diseases such as psoriasis and possibly for systemic autoimmune diseases such as multiple sclerosis. The health risks of sun exposure can be mitigated through appropriate sun protection, such as clothing with both good UV-blocking characteristics and adequate skin coverage, sunglasses, shade, and sunscreen. New sunscreen preparations provide protection against a broader spectrum of solar radiation, but it is not clear that this has benefits for health. Gaps in knowledge make it difficult to derive evidence-based sun protection advice that balances the risks and benefits of sun exposure.

Linkages between stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate change and their implications for terrestrial ecosystems.

Exposure of plants and animals to ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B; 280-315 nm) is modified by stratospheric ozone dynamics and climate change. Even though stabilisation and projected recovery of stratospheric ozone is expected to curtail future increases in UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface, on-going changes in climate are increasingly exposing plants and animals to novel combinations of UV-B radiation and other climate change factors (e.g., ultraviolet-A and visible radiation, water availability, temperature and elevated carbon dioxide). Climate change is also shifting vegetation cover, geographic ranges of species, and seasonal timing of development, which further modifies exposure to UV-B radiation. Since our last assessment, there has been increased understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which plants perceive UV-B radiation, eliciting changes in growth, development and tolerances of abiotic and biotic factors. However, major questions remain on how UV-B radiation is interacting with other climate change factors to modify the production and quality of crops, as well as important ecosystem processes such as plant and animal competition, pest-pathogen interactions, and the decomposition of dead plant matter (litter). In addition, stratospheric ozone depletion is directly contributing to climate change in the southern hemisphere, such that terrestrial ecosystems in this region are being exposed to altered patterns of precipitation, temperature and fire regimes as well as UV-B radiation. These ozone-driven changes in climate have been implicated in both increases and reductions in the growth, survival and reproduction of plants and animals in Antarctica, South America and New Zealand. In this assessment, we summarise advances in our knowledge of these and other linkages and effects, and identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the ecological consequences of these environmental changes on terrestrial ecosystems.

The interactive effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change on aquatic ecosystems.

This assessment summarises the current state of knowledge on the interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on aquatic ecosystems, focusing on how these affect exposures to UV radiation in both inland and oceanic waters. The ways in which stratospheric ozone depletion is directly altering climate in the southern hemisphere and the consequent extensive effects on aquatic ecosystems are also addressed. The primary objective is to synthesise novel findings over the past four years in the context of the existing understanding of ecosystem response to UV radiation and the interactive effects of climate change. If it were not for the Montreal Protocol, stratospheric ozone depletion would have led to high levels of exposure to solar UV radiation with much stronger negative effects on all trophic levels in aquatic ecosystems than currently experienced in both inland and oceanic waters. This "world avoided" scenario that has curtailed ozone depletion, means that climate change and other environmental variables will play the primary role in regulating the exposure of aquatic organisms to solar UV radiation. Reductions in the thickness and duration of snow and ice cover are increasing the levels of exposure of aquatic organisms to UV radiation. Climate change was also expected to increase exposure by causing shallow mixed layers, but new data show deepening in some regions and shoaling in others. In contrast, climate-change related increases in heavy precipitation and melting of glaciers and permafrost are increasing the concentration and colour of UV-absorbing dissolved organic matter (DOM) and particulates. This is leading to the "browning" of many inland and coastal waters, with consequent loss of the valuable ecosystem service in which solar UV radiation disinfects surface waters of parasites and pathogens. Many organisms can reduce damage due to exposure to UV radiation through behavioural avoidance, photoprotection, and photoenzymatic repair, but meta-analyses continue to confirm negative effects of UV radiation across all trophic levels. Modeling studies estimating photoinhibition of primary production in parts of the Pacific Ocean have demonstrated that the UV radiation component of sunlight leads to a 20% decrease in estimates of primary productivity. Exposure to UV radiation can also lead to positive effects on some organisms by damaging less UV-tolerant predators, competitors, and pathogens. UV radiation also contributes to the formation of microplastic pollutants and interacts with artificial sunscreens and other pollutants with adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. Exposure to UV-B radiation can decrease the toxicity of some pollutants such as methyl mercury (due to its role in demethylation) but increase the toxicity of other pollutants such as some pesticides and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Feeding on microplastics by zooplankton can lead to bioaccumulation in fish. Microplastics are found in up to 20% of fish marketed for human consumption, potentially threatening food security. Depletion of stratospheric ozone has altered climate in the southern hemisphere in ways that have increased oceanic productivity and consequently the growth, survival and reproduction of many sea birds and mammals. In contrast, warmer sea surface temperatures related to these climate shifts are also correlated with declines in both kelp beds in Tasmania and corals in Brazil. This assessment demonstrates that knowledge of the interactive effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change factors on aquatic ecosystems has advanced considerably over the past four years and confirms the importance of considering synergies between environmental factors.

Solar UV radiation in a changing world: roles of cryosphere-land-water-atmosphere interfaces in global biogeochemical cycles.

Global change influences biogeochemical cycles within and between environmental compartments (i.e., the cryosphere, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and the atmosphere). A major effect of global change on carbon cycling is altered exposure of natural organic matter (NOM) to solar radiation, particularly solar UV radiation. In terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, NOM is degraded by UV and visible radiation, resulting in the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and carbon monoxide, as well as a range of products that can be more easily degraded by microbes (photofacilitation). On land, droughts and land-use change can reduce plant cover causing an increase in exposure of plant litter to solar radiation. The altered transport of soil organic matter from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems also can enhance exposure of NOM to solar radiation. An increase in emission of CO2 from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems due to the effects of global warming, such as droughts and thawing of permafrost soils, fuels a positive feedback on global warming. This is also the case for greenhouse gases other than CO2, including methane and nitrous oxide, that are emitted from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These trace gases also have indirect or direct impacts on stratospheric ozone concentrations. The interactive effects of UV radiation and climate change greatly alter the fate of synthetic and biological contaminants. Contaminants are degraded or inactivated by direct and indirect photochemical reactions. The balance between direct and indirect photodegradation or photoinactivation of contaminants is likely to change with future changes in stratospheric ozone, and with changes in runoff of coloured dissolved organic matter due to climate and land-use changes.

Ozone-climate interactions and effects on solar ultraviolet radiation.

This report assesses the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and anticipated ozone recovery on the intensity of ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth's surface. Interactions between changes in ozone and changes in climate, as well as their effects on UV radiation, are also considered. These evaluations focus mainly on new knowledge gained from research conducted during the last four years. Furthermore, drivers of changes in UV radiation other than ozone are discussed and their relative importance is assessed. The most important of these factors, namely clouds, aerosols and surface reflectivity, are related to changes in climate, and some of their effects on short- and long-term variations of UV radiation have already been identified from measurements. Finally, projected future developments in stratospheric ozone, climate, and other factors affecting UV radiation have been used to estimate changes in solar UV radiation from the present to the end of the 21st century. New instruments and methods have been assessed with respect to their ability to provide useful and accurate information for monitoring solar UV radiation at the Earth's surface and for determining relevant exposures of humans. Evidence since the last assessment reconfirms that systematic and accurate long-term measurements of UV radiation and stratospheric ozone are essential for assessing the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments and adjustments. Finally, we have assessed aspects of UV radiation related to biological effects and human health, as well as implications for UV radiation from possible solar radiation management (geoengineering) methods to mitigate climate change.

Fifty years of changes in UV Index and implications for skin cancer in Australia.

Surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation plays an important role in human health. Increased exposure to UV radiation increases the risk of skin cancer. In Australia, public campaigns to prevent skin cancer include the promotion of daily UV forecasts. If all other atmospheric factors are equal, stratospheric ozone decreases result in UV increases. Given that Australia still has the highest skin cancer rates in the world, it is important to monitor Australia's stratospheric ozone and UV radiation levels over time because of the effects cumulative exposure can have on humans. In this paper, two long-term ozone datasets derived from surface and satellite measurements, a radiation code and atmospheric meteorological fields are used to calculate clear-sky UV radiation over a 50-year period (1959-2009) for Australia. The deviations from 1970-1980 levels show that clear-sky UV is on the rise. After the 1990s, an overall annual increase from 2 to 6% above the 1970-1980 levels was observed at all latitudes. Examining the summer and winter deviations from 1970-1980 showed that the winter signal dominated the annual changes, with winter increases almost twice those in summer. With ozone levels not expected to recover to pre-depletion levels until the middle of this century, UV levels are expected to continue to rise. Combined with Australians favoring an outdoor life-style, when temperatures are warmer, under high levels of UV, the associated risk of skin cancer will increase.