Impact of Health Insurance, Poverty, and Comorbidities on Colorectal Cancer Screening: Insights from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.

BACKGROUND: Despite national campaigns and other efforts to improve colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, participation rates remain below targets set by expert panels. We hypothesized that availability and practice patterns of healthcare providers may contribute to this gap. METHOD: Using data of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey for the years between 2000 and 2016, we extracted demographic, socioeconomic, and health-related data as well as reported experiences about barriers to care, correlating results with answers about recent participation in colorectal cancer screening. As CRC screening guidelines recommend initiation of testing at age 50, we focused on adults 50 years or older. RESULTS: We included responses of 163,564 participants for the period studied. There was a significant increase in CRC screening rates over time. Comorbidity burden, poverty, race, and ethnicity independently predicted participation in screening. Lack of insurance coverage and cost of care played an important role as reported barrier. Convenient access to care, represented by availability of appointments beyond typical business hours, and frequency of provider interactions, correlated with higher rates of screening. CONCLUSION: Our data show a positive effect of educational efforts and healthcare reform with coverage of screening. Easy and more frequent access to individual providers predicted a higher likelihood of completed screening tests. This finding could translate into more widespread implementation of screening programs, as the increasingly common virtual care delivery offers a new and convenient option to patients.

Pediatric Anesthesia Severe Adverse Events Leading to Anesthetic Morbidity and Mortality in a Tertiary Care Center in a Low- and Middle-Income Country: A 25-Year Audit.

BACKGROUND: The analysis of adverse events, including morbidity and mortality (M&M), helps to identify subgroups of children at risk and to modify clinical practice. There are scant data available from low- and middle-income countries. Our aim was to estimate the proportion of pediatric patients with various severe adverse events in the perioperative period extending to 48 hours and to describe the clinical situations and causes of those events. METHODS: We reviewed the M&M database of the Department of Anesthesiology between 1992 and 2016. A data collection tool was developed, and the outcomes were standardized. Each case was reviewed independently and subsequently discussed between 2 reviewers to identify a major primary causative factor. RESULTS: The total number of pediatric cases during this period was 48,828. Seventy-six significant adverse events were identified in 39 patients (8 patients [95% confidence interval {CI}, 5.7-10.9] per 10,000). Thirteen patients had multisystem involvement, and hence the total number of events exceeded the number of patients. Respiratory events were the most common (33.5%). Thirteen patients had perioperative cardiac arrest within 48 hours of surgery (2.6 [95% CI, 1.3-4.3] per 10,000), 7 of these were infants (54%), 5 of whom had congenital heart disease (CHD). Eleven of these 39 patients died within 48 hours (2.0 [95% CI, 1.1-4.0] per 10,000).In 13 cases, anesthesia was assessed to be the predominant cause of morbidity (2.6 per 10,000), whereas in 26 cases, it contributed partially (5.32 per 10,000). There was only 1 death solely related to anesthesia (0.2 per 10,000), and this death occurred before the start of surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Adverse events were uncommon. Respiratory complications were the most frequent (33%). Infants, especially those with CHD, were identified as at a higher risk for perioperative cardiac arrest, but this association was not tested statistically. Twenty-eight percent of the patients who suffered events died within 48 hours. Increased access to anesthesia drugs and practice improvements resulted in a decline in perioperative cardiac arrests.

Persistent Poverty and Cancer Mortality Rates: An Analysis of County-Level Poverty Designations.

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality is higher in counties with high levels of (current) poverty, but less is known about associations with persistent poverty. Persistent poverty counties (with ≥20% of residents in poverty since 1980) face social, structural, and behavioral challenges that may make their residents more vulnerable to cancer. METHODS: We calculated 2007 to 2011 county-level, age-adjusted, and overall and type-specific cancer mortality rates (deaths/100,000 people/year) by persistent poverty classifications, which we contrasted with mortality in counties experiencing current poverty (≥20% of residents in poverty according to 2007-2011 American Community Survey). We used two-sample t tests and multivariate linear regression to assess mortality by persistent poverty, and compared mortality rates across current and persistent poverty levels. RESULTS: Overall cancer mortality was 179.3 [standard error (SE) = 0.55] deaths/100,000 people/year in nonpersistent poverty counties and 201.3 (SE = 1.80) in persistent poverty counties (12.3% higher, P < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, cancer mortality was higher in persistent poverty versus nonpersistent poverty counties for overall cancer mortality as well as for several type-specific mortality rates: lung and bronchus, colorectal, stomach, and liver and intrahepatic bile duct (all P < 0.05). Among counties experiencing current poverty, those counties that were also experiencing persistent poverty had elevated mortality rates for all cancer types as well as lung and bronchus, colorectal, breast, stomach, and liver and intrahepatic bile duct (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality was higher in persistent poverty counties than other counties, including those experiencing current poverty. IMPACT: Etiologic research and interventions, including policies, are needed to address multilevel determinants of cancer disparities in persistent poverty counties.

Zoonotic and vector-borne parasites and epilepsy in low-income and middle-income countries.

Zoonotic and vector-borne parasites are important preventable risk factors for epilepsy. Three parasitic infections - cerebral malaria, Taenia solium cysticercosis and onchocerciasis - have an established association with epilepsy. Parasitoses are widely prevalent in low-income and middle-income countries, which are home to 80% of the people with epilepsy in the world. Once a parasitic infection has taken hold in the brain, therapeutic measures do not seem to influence the development of epilepsy in the long term. Consequently, strategies to control, eliminate and eradicate parasites represent the most feasible way to reduce the epilepsy burden at present. The elucidation of immune mechanisms underpinning the parasitic infections, some of which are parasite-specific, opens up new therapeutic possibilities. In this Review, we explore the pathophysiological basis of the link between parasitic infections and epilepsy, and we consider preventive and therapeutic approaches to reduce the burden of epilepsy attributable to parasitic disorders. We conclude that a concerted approach involving medical, veterinary, parasitological and ecological experts, backed by robust political support and sustainable funding, is the key to reducing this burden.

Challenges on the provision of palliative care for patients with cancer in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review of reviews.

BACKGROUND: Despite the significant benefits of palliative care (PC) services for cancer patients, multiple challenges hinder the provision of PC services for these patients. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are witnessing a sharp growth in the burden of non-communicable diseases. There is a significant gap between demand and supply of PC in LMICs in current health services. This review aims to synthesise evidence from previous reviews and deliver a more comprehensive mapping of the existing literature about personal, system, policy, and organisational challenges and possible facilitators on the provision of PC services for cancer patients in LMICs. METHODS: A systematic review of reviews was performed following PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsycINFO, Web of Sciences, CINAHL, and Cochrane Library databases were searched to identify review papers published between 2000 and 2018 that considered challenges and possible facilitators to PC provision. A modified socioecological model was used as a framework for analysing and summarising findings. RESULTS: Fourteen reviews were included. The reviews varied in terms of aim, settings, and detail of the challenges and possible facilitators. The main challenges of personal and health care systems included knowledge deficits and misunderstandings from patients, families, the general public, and health care providers about PC; and inadequate number of trained workforce. Besides, limited physical infrastructure, insufficient drugs for symptom relief and lack of a comprehensive national plan for implementing PC were the core organisational and policy level challenges that were recognised. Furthermore, the main possible facilitators that were identified included provision of adequate training for health care providers and health education for patients, families and the general public to enhance their knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes to PC. Finally, involvement of policymakers and making drugs available for symptom relief should also be in place to improve the health care systems. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding challenges to the provision of PC for people with cancer could help in the development of a PC pathway in LMICs. This knowledge could be used as a guide to develop an intervention programme to improve PC. Political influence and support are also required to ensure the sustainability and the provision of high-quality PC.

Human Papillomavirus 16/18-Associated Cervical Lesions: Differences by Area-Based Measures of Race and Poverty.

INTRODUCTION: This analysis evaluates trends in cervical lesions with human papillomavirus 16/18 detected by area-based measures of race, ethnicity, and poverty during 2008-2015. METHODS: Trends in the proportion of lesions with human papillomavirus 16/18 detected among residents of New Haven County, Connecticut were examined by area-based measures of race, ethnicity, and poverty. Area-based measures are aggregate descriptors of census tract characteristics useful for measuring differences in health outcomes in the context of where people live. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was conducted, adjusted for individual-level race, ethnicity, and insurance status to assess the independent effects of area-based measures. Data were analyzed in 2018-2019. RESULTS: Among women aged 21-24 years and 25-29 years, significant declines in the proportion of lesions with human papillomavirus 16/18 were observed. Among women aged 21-24 years, declines began earlier and were greater in magnitude in areas of lower poverty (OR=0.55, 95% CI=0.36, 0.85 for 2010-2012 vs 2008-2009 and OR=0.30, 95% CI=0.18, 0.51 for 2013-2015 vs 2008-2009) compared with higher poverty (OR=1.66, 95% CI=0.86, 3.21 and OR=0.48, 95% CI=0.19, 1.20). Similar patterns were observed for women aged 25-29 years, and for area-based measures of race and ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Differences were observed in declines in the proportion of human papillomavirus 16/18 lesions by area-based measures since the introduction of human papillomavirus vaccines, with greater and earlier declines in areas with fewer residents living in poverty and racial minorities. Ongoing human papillomavirus vaccine impact monitoring is necessary to track differences by sociodemographic characteristics.

The socioeconomic burden of chronic lung disease in low-resource settings across the globe - an observational FRESH AIR study.

BACKGROUND: Low-resource settings are disproportionally burdened by chronic lung disease due to early childhood disadvantages and indoor/outdoor air pollution. However, data on the socioeconomic impact of respiratory diseases in these settings are largely lacking. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the chronic lung disease-related socioeconomic burden in diverse low-resource settings across the globe. To inform governmental and health policy, we focused on work productivity and activity impairment and its modifiable clinical and environmental risk factors. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional, observational FRESH AIR study in Uganda, Vietnam, Kyrgyzstan, and Greece. We assessed the chronic lung disease-related socioeconomic burden using validated questionnaires among spirometry-diagnosed COPD and/or asthma patients (total N = 1040). Predictors for a higher burden were studied using multivariable linear regression models including demographics (e.g. age, gender), health parameters (breathlessness, comorbidities), and risk factors for chronic lung disease (smoking, solid fuel use). We applied identical models per country, which we subsequently meta-analyzed. RESULTS: Employed patients reported a median [IQR] overall work impairment due to chronic lung disease of 30% [1.8-51.7] and decreased productivity (presenteeism) of 20.0% [0.0-40.0]. Remarkably, work time missed (absenteeism) was 0.0% [0.0-16.7]. The total population reported 40.0% [20.0-60.0] impairment in daily activities. Breathlessness severity (MRC-scale) (B = 8.92, 95%CI = 7.47-10.36), smoking (B = 5.97, 95%CI = 1.73-10.22), and solid fuel use (B = 3.94, 95%CI = 0.56-7.31) were potentially modifiable risk factors for impairment. CONCLUSIONS: In low-resource settings, chronic lung disease-related absenteeism is relatively low compared to the substantial presenteeism and activity impairment. Possibly, given the lack of social security systems, relatively few people take days off work at the expense of decreased productivity. Breathlessness (MRC-score), smoking, and solid fuel use are potentially modifiable predictors for higher impairment. Results warrant increased awareness, preventive actions and clinical management of lung diseases in low-resource settings from health policymakers and healthcare workers.

Asentamientos precarios en la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires: Apuntes para una revisión de los conceptos de villa, asentamiento y núcleo habitacional transitorio en el marco de la producción estadística / Precarious settlements in Buenos Aires City: Notes for a review of the concepts of villa, settlement and transient housing nucleus in the framework of statistical production

El presente informe documenta las tareas realizadas por la Dirección General de Estadística y Censos del Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires (DGEyC-GCBA), en el marco del Programa de Estudios de Pobreza del Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC), para contribuir a la definición conceptual y operativa de los asentamientos irregulares o precarios (y su tipología) en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Las definiciones son el paso necesario que permite identificar estas áreas de la Cuidad, por lo tanto, resultan esenciales tanto para las tareas pre-censales (en perspectiva del próximo Censo de Población, Hogares y Viviendas de 2020) como para la explotación de los datos. En la primera parte se presenta una reseña histórica, en la que se describe el proceso de conformación y evolución de los asentamientos precarios (villas, asentamientos y Núcleos Habitacionales Transitorios) en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, haciendo eje en los aspectos demográficos y sociopolíticos que lo marcaron, y se presenta una imagen de la situación actual de dichas áreas, detallando los cambios en marcha. En un segundo apartado, se analizan las definiciones vigentes, tanto conceptuales como operativas, utilizadas tanto por la DGEyC, como por organismos públicos del GCBA, y por organismos nacionales, provinciales y la academia. A la vez, se presentan los criterios operativos empleados por la DGEyC en las tareas pre-censales y en el procesamiento de la información del Censo 2010 en las áreas con asentamientos precarios. Finalmente, a partir de la información disponible (con datos del Censo 2010), se analizan los indicadores sociodemográficos que intervienen en las definiciones relevadas con el propósito de encontrar regularidades en cada uno de los tipos de asentamientos precarios analizados. (AU)

Effect of economic recession and impact of health and social protection expenditures on adult mortality: a longitudinal analysis of 5565 Brazilian municipalities.

BACKGROUND: Economic recession might worsen health in low-income and middle-income countries with precarious job markets and weak social protection systems. Between 2014-16, a major economic crisis occurred in Brazil. We aimed to assess the association between economic recession and adult mortality in Brazil and to ascertain whether health and social welfare programmes in the country had a protective effect against the negative impact of this recession. METHODS: In this longitudinal analysis, we obtained data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics, the Ministry of Social Development and Fight Against Hunger, and the Information System for the Public Budget in Health to assess changes in state unemployment level and mortality among adults (aged ≥15 years) in Brazil between 2012 and 2017. Outcomes were municipal all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for all adults and across population subgroups stratified by age, sex, and race. We used fixed-effect panel regression models with quarterly timepoints to assess the association between recession and changes in mortality. Mortality and unemployment rates were detrended using Hodrick-Prescott filters to assess cyclical variation and control for underlying trends. We tested interactions between unemployment and terciles of municipal social protection and health-care expenditure to assess whether the relationship between unemployment and mortality varied. FINDINGS: Between 2012 and 2017, 7 069 242 deaths were recorded among adults (aged ≥15 years) in 5565 municipalities in Brazil. During this time period, the mean crude municipal adult mortality rate increased by 8·0% from 143·1 deaths per 100 000 in 2012 to 154·5 deaths per 100 000 in 2017. An increase in unemployment rate of 1 percentage-point was associated with a 0·50 increase per 100 000 population per rter (95% CI 0·09-0·91) in all-cause mortality, mainly due to cancer and cardiovascular disease. Between 2012 and 2017, higher unemployment accounted for 31 415 excess deaths (95% CI 29 698-33 132). All-cause mortality increased among black or mixed race (pardo) Brazilians (a 0·46 increase [95% CI 0·15-0·80]), men (0·67 [0·22-1·13]), and individuals aged 30-59 years (0·43 [0·16-0·69] per 1 percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate. No significant association was identified between unemployment and all-cause mortality for white Brazilian, women, adolescents (aged 15-29 years), or older and retired individuals (aged ≥60 years). In municipalities with high expenditure on health and social protection programmes, no significant increases in recession-related mortality were observed. INTERPRETATION: The Brazilian recession contributed to increases in mortality. However, health and social protection expenditure seemed to mitigate detrimental health effects, especially among vulnerable populations. This evidence provides support for stronger health and social protection systems globally. FUNDING: None.

Footprint of Reports From Low- and Low- to Middle-Income Countries in the Neurosurgical Data: A Study From 2015 to 2017.

OBJECTIVE: In 2015, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery highlighted the disparities in surgical care worldwide. The aim of the present study was to investigate the research productivity of low-income countries (LICs) and low- to middle-income countries (LMICs) in selected journals representing the worldwide neurosurgical data and their ability to report and communicate globally the existing differences between high-income countries (HICs) and LMICs. METHODS: We performed a retrospective bibliometric analysis using PubMed and Scopus databases to record all the reports from 2015 to 2017 by investigators affiliated with neurosurgical departments in LICs and LMICs. RESULTS: A total of 8459 reports by investigators self-identified as members of neurosurgery departments worldwide were identified. Of these, 6708 reports were included in accordance with our method in the final analysis. The systematic search resulted in 459 studies reported by LICs and LMICs. Of these, 334 reports were included for the full text evaluation. Of the 6708 reports, 303 (4.52%) had been reported with an LMIC affiliation and only 31 (0.46%) with an LIC. The leading countries were India with 182 (54.5% among LMICs and LICs; 2.71% overall), followed by Egypt at 66 (19.76% among the LMICs and LICs; 0.98% overall), with a large difference compared with other countries such as Uganda at 9 (2.69% among the LMICs and LICs) and Tunisia and Pakistan at 8 each (2.4% among the LMICs and LICs). A few reports studies had been generated by collaboration with HIC neurosurgeons. CONCLUSIONS: Our results have shown that research studies from LMICs are underrepresented. Understanding and discussing the reasons for this underrepresentation are necessary to start addressing the disparities in neurosurgical research and care capacity. Future engagements from international journals, more partnership collaboration from HICs, and tailored funding to support investigators, collaborations, and networks could be of help.

Epilepsy surgery in low- and middle-income countries: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Epilepsy surgery is an important treatment option for people with drug-resistant epilepsy. Surgical procedures for epilepsy are underutilized worldwide, but it is far worse in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), and it is less clear as to what extent people with drug-resistant epilepsy receive such treatment at all. Here, we review the existing evidence for the availability and outcome of epilepsy surgery in LMIC and discuss some challenges and priority. METHODS: We used an accepted six-stage methodological framework for scoping reviews as a guide. We searched PubMed, Embase, Global Health Archives, Index Medicus for South East Asia Region (IMSEAR), Index Medicus for Eastern Mediterranean Region (IMEMR), Latin American & Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), African Journal Online (AJOL), and African Index Medicus (AIM) to identify the relevant literature. RESULTS: We retrieved 148 articles on epilepsy surgery from 31 countries representing 22% of the 143 LMIC. Epilepsy surgery appears established in some of these centers in Asia and Latin America while some are in their embryonic stage reporting procedures in a small cohort performed mostly by motivated neurosurgeons. The commonest surgical procedure reported was temporal lobectomies. The postoperative seizure-free rates and quality of life (QOL) are comparable with those in the high-income countries (HIC). Some models have shown that epilepsy surgery can be performed within a resource-limited setting through collaboration with international partners and through the use of information and communications technology (ICT). The cost of surgery is a fraction of what is available in HIC. CONCLUSION: This review has demonstrated the availability of epilepsy surgery in a few LMIC. The information available is inadequate to make any reasonable conclusion of its existence as routine practice. Collaborations with international partners can provide an opportunity to bring high-quality academic training and technological transfer directly to surgeons working in these regions and should be encouraged.

Secondhand Smoke Exposure in Primary School Children: A Survey in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

INTRODUCTION: We report on second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure based on saliva cotinine levels among children in Bangladesh-a country with laws against smoking in public places. METHODS: A survey of primary school children from two areas of the Dhaka district was conducted in 2015. Participants completed a questionnaire and provided saliva samples for cotinine measurement to assess SHS exposure with a cut-off range of ≥0.1ng/mL. RESULTS: Four hundred and eighty-one children studying in year-5 were recruited from 12 primary schools. Of these, 479 saliva samples were found sufficient for cotinine testing, of which 95% (453/479) were positive for recent SHS exposure. Geometric mean cotinine was 0.36 (95% CI = 0.32 to 0.40); 43% (208/479) of children lived with at least one smoker in the household. Only 21% (100/479) reported complete smoking restrictions for residents and visitors; 87% (419/479) also reported being recently exposed to SHS in public spaces. Living with a smoker and number of tobacco selling shops in the neighborhood had positive associations with recent SHS exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Despite having a ban on smoking in public places, recent SHS exposure among children in Bangladesh remains very high. There is an urgent need to reduce exposure to SHS in Bangladeshi children. IMPLICATIONS: Children bear the biggest burden of disease due to SHS exposure than any other age group. However, children living in many high-income countries have had a sharp decline in their exposure to SHS in recent years. What remains unknown is if children living in low-income countries are still exposed to SHS. Our study suggests that despite having a ban on smoking in public places, most primary school children in Dhaka, Bangladesh are still likely to be exposed to SHS.

Assessing the efficacy of an ambulatory peripheral blood hematopoietic stem cell transplant program using reduced intensity conditioning in a low-middle-income country.

Efficacy of an ambulatory hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) program with a reduced intensity conditioning regimen (RIC) in malignant hematological diseases was assessed. We analyzed 217 patients who underwent HSCT from August 2013 to July 2017. There were 78 (35.9%) HLA-identical, 56 (25.8%) haploidentical, and 83 (38.2%) autologous transplants. Two-year transplant-related mortality (TRM) for HLA-identical, haploidentical, and auto grafts were 20%, 25%, and 2.5%; relapse/progression was 44%, 60%, and 55%; overall survival (OS) was 61%, 44.8%, and 78.0%; and disease-free survival (DFS) was 36.8%, 26.5%, and 43.5%, respectively. Factors associated with a high risk of TRM were male sex (HR = 2.62, P = 0.031), fever and neutropenia (HR = 3.30, P = 0.023), and cell dose < 5 × 106 CD34 +/kg (HR = 4.24, P = 0.001); cGVHD was a protective factor for TRM (HR = 0.29, P = 0.022). Transfusion was associated with increased risk of relapse/progression in univariate and multivariate analysis (HR = 3.10, P = 0.001 and HR = 3.30, P = 0.004); cGVHD was a protective factor (HR = 0.18, P = 0.001 and HR = 0.17, P = 0.002). In a multivariate analysis for allo-HSCT, infections were associated with high risk of mortality (HR = 3.90, P = 0.016) and transfusion with reduced DFS (HR = 2.76, P = 0.029); for haplo-HSCT, CD34 + < 5 × 106/kg was a risk factor for mortality and lower DFS (HR = 5.41, P = 0.001 and HR = 3.93, P = 0.001). Outcomes of our RIC-based outpatient transplant program are comparable to excellence centers in high-income countries.

Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories.

BACKGROUND: Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts -and alternative future scenarios-for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories. METHODS: We modelled 250 causes and cause groups organised by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) hierarchical cause structure, using GBD 2016 estimates from 1990-2016, to generate predictions for 2017-40. Our modelling framework used data from the GBD 2016 study to systematically account for the relationships between risk factors and health outcomes for 79 independent drivers of health. We developed a three-component model of cause-specific mortality: a component due to changes in risk factors and select interventions; the underlying mortality rate for each cause that is a function of income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years and time; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model for unexplained changes correlated with time. We assessed the performance by fitting models with data from 1990-2006 and using these to forecast for 2007-16. Our final model used for generating forecasts and alternative scenarios was fitted to data from 1990-2016. We used this model for 195 countries and territories to generate a reference scenario or forecast through 2040 for each measure by location. Additionally, we generated better health and worse health scenarios based on the 85th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of annualised rates of change across location-years for all the GBD risk factors, income per person, educational attainment, select intervention coverage, and total fertility rate under 25 years in the past. We used the model to generate all-cause age-sex specific mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost (YLLs) for 250 causes. Scenarios for fertility were also generated and used in a cohort component model to generate population scenarios. For each reference forecast, better health, and worse health scenarios, we generated estimates of mortality and YLLs attributable to each risk factor in the future. FINDINGS: Globally, most independent drivers of health were forecast to improve by 2040, but 36 were forecast to worsen. As shown by the better health scenarios, greater progress might be possible, yet for some drivers such as high body-mass index (BMI), their toll will rise in the absence of intervention. We forecasted global life expectancy to increase by 4·4 years (95% UI 2·2 to 6·4) for men and 4·4 years (2·1 to 6·4) for women by 2040, but based on better and worse health scenarios, trajectories could range from a gain of 7·8 years (5·9 to 9·8) to a non-significant loss of 0·4 years (-2·8 to 2·2) for men, and an increase of 7·2 years (5·3 to 9·1) to essentially no change (0·1 years [-2·7 to 2·5]) for women. In 2040, Japan, Singapore, Spain, and Switzerland had a forecasted life expectancy exceeding 85 years for both sexes, and 59 countries including China were projected to surpass a life expectancy of 80 years by 2040. At the same time, Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia, and Zimbabwe had projected life expectancies below 65 years in 2040, indicating global disparities in survival are likely to persist if current trends hold. Forecasted YLLs showed a rising toll from several non-communicable diseases (NCDs), partly driven by population growth and ageing. Differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios were most striking for HIV/AIDS, for which a potential increase of 120·2% (95% UI 67·2-190·3) in YLLs (nearly 118 million) was projected globally from 2016-40 under the worse health scenario. Compared with 2016, NCDs were forecast to account for a greater proportion of YLLs in all GBD regions by 2040 (67·3% of YLLs [95% UI 61·9-72·3] globally); nonetheless, in many lower-income countries, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases still accounted for a large share of YLLs in 2040 (eg, 53·5% of YLLs [95% UI 48·3-58·5] in Sub-Saharan Africa). There were large gaps for many health risks between the reference forecast and better health scenario for attributable YLLs. In most countries, metabolic risks amenable to health care (eg, high blood pressure and high plasma fasting glucose) and risks best targeted by population-level or intersectoral interventions (eg, tobacco, high BMI, and ambient particulate matter pollution) had some of the largest differences between reference and better health scenarios. The main exception was sub-Saharan Africa, where many risks associated with poverty and lower levels of development (eg, unsafe water and sanitation, household air pollution, and child malnutrition) were projected to still account for substantive disparities between reference and better health scenarios in 2040. INTERPRETATION: With the present study, we provide a robust, flexible forecasting platform from which reference forecasts and alternative health scenarios can be explored in relation to a wide range of independent drivers of health. Our reference forecast points to overall improvements through 2040 in most countries, yet the range found across better and worse health scenarios renders a precarious vision of the future-a world with accelerating progress from technical innovation but with the potential for worsening health outcomes in the absence of deliberate policy action. For some causes of YLLs, large differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios reflect the opportunity to accelerate gains if countries move their trajectories toward better health scenarios-or alarming challenges if countries fall behind their reference forecasts. Generally, decision makers should plan for the likely continued shift toward NCDs and target resources toward the modifiable risks that drive substantial premature mortality. If such modifiable risks are prioritised today, there is opportunity to reduce avoidable mortality in the future. However, CMNN causes and related risks will remain the predominant health priority among lower-income countries. Based on our 2040 worse health scenario, there is a real risk of HIV mortality rebounding if countries lose momentum against the HIV epidemic, jeopardising decades of progress against the disease. Continued technical innovation and increased health spending, including development assistance for health targeted to the world's poorest people, are likely to remain vital components to charting a future where all populations can live full, healthy lives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The birth prevalence, severity, and temporal trends of congenital heart disease in the middle-income country: A population-based study.

OBJECTIVES: There is limited data on congenital heart disease (CHD) from the lower- and middle-income country. We aim to study the epidemiology of CHD with the specific objective to estimate the birth prevalence, severity, and its trend over time. DESIGN: A population-based study with data retrieved from the Pediatric Cardiology Clinical Information System, a clinical registry of acquired and congenital heart disease for children. SETTING: State of Johor, Malaysia. PATIENTS: All children (0-12 years of age) born in the state of Johor between January 2006 and December 2015. INTERVENTION: None. OUTCOME MEASURE: The birth prevalence, severity, and temporal trend over time. RESULTS: There were 531,904 live births during the study period with 3557 new cases of CHD detected. Therefore, the birth prevalence of CHD was 6.7 per 1000 live births (LB) (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.5-6.9). Of these, 38% were severe, 15% moderate, and 47% mild lesions. Hence, the birth prevalence of mild, moderate, and severe CHD was 3.2 (95% CI: 3.0-3.3), 0.9 (95% CI: 0.9- 1.1), and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.4-2.7) per 1000 LB, respectively. There was a significant increase in the birth prevalence of CHD, from 5.1/1000 LB in 2006 to 7.8/1000 LB in 2015 (P < .0001) due to increase in detection of both mild (1.9/1000 LB in 2006 to 3.9/1000 LB in 2015, P < .001) and severe CHD (1.8/1000 LB in 2005 to 2.9/1000 LB in 2015, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The birth prevalence of CHD was 6.7 per 1000 live births, and two in five were severe and significantly associated with syndrome and extracardiac defect. There was a significant increase in the detection of severe lesions in recent years leading to more burden to resources that are already limited in the middle-income country. Therefore, strategic and comprehensive pediatric and congenital heart surgery program is required.

Retrospective Validation and Clinical Implementation of Automated Contouring of Organs at Risk in the Head and Neck: A Step Toward Automated Radiation Treatment Planning for Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Purpose We assessed automated contouring of normal structures for patients with head-and-neck cancer (HNC) using a multiatlas deformable-image-registration algorithm to better provide a fully automated radiation treatment planning solution for low- and middle-income countries, provide quantitative analysis, and determine acceptability worldwide. Methods Autocontours of eight normal structures (brain, brainstem, cochleae, eyes, lungs, mandible, parotid glands, and spinal cord) from 128 patients with HNC were retrospectively scored by a dedicated HNC radiation oncologist. Contours from a 10-patient subset were evaluated by five additional radiation oncologists from international partner institutions, and interphysician variability was assessed. Quantitative agreement of autocontours with independently physician-drawn structures was assessed using the Dice similarity coefficient and mean surface and Hausdorff distances. Automated contouring was then implemented clinically and has been used for 166 patients, and contours were quantitatively compared with the physician-edited autocontours using the same metrics. Results Retrospectively, 87% of normal structure contours were rated as acceptable for use in dose-volume-histogram-based planning without edit. Upon clinical implementation, 50% of contours were not edited for use in treatment planning. The mean (± standard deviation) Dice similarity coefficient of autocontours compared with physician-edited autocontours for parotid glands (0.92 ± 0.10), brainstem (0.95 ± 0.09), and spinal cord (0.92 ± 0.12) indicate that only minor edits were performed. The average mean surface and Hausdorff distances for all structures were less than 0.15 mm and 1.8 mm, respectively. Conclusion Automated contouring of normal structures generates reliable contours that require only minimal editing, as judged by retrospective ratings from multiple international centers and clinical integration. Autocontours are acceptable for treatment planning with no or, at most, minor edits, suggesting that automated contouring is feasible for clinical use and in the ongoing development of automated radiation treatment planning algorithms.

Overall and cause-specific premature mortality in epilepsy: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a systematic review to ascertain the overall mortality and causes of premature mortality in epilepsy. METHODOLOGY: We searched PubMed and Embase to identify relevant articles reporting mortality in epilepsy. An assessment of the methodological quality and overall quality of evidence of the identified studies was done using appropriate checklists. We extracted data from these studies reporting measures of overall and cause-specific mortality in epilepsy. RESULTS: Sixty-three articles from fifty-six cohorts met the eligibility criteria, thirty-three population- or community-based and twenty-three hospital- or institutional-based studies. The majority of studies are from high-income countries (HIC). These studies reported overall excess mortality for people with epilepsy, with wide variability reported for population- or community-based studies and from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Twenty-seven articles from twenty-three cohorts reported measures of mortality for cause-specific mortality in epilepsy. People with epilepsy from HIC and LMIC have a higher risk of dying from various causes compared with the general population. Those in LMIC, however, have a particularly high chance of dying from external causes such as drowning and suicide. We observed a decrement over time in measures of overall and cause-specific mortality in cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the heterogeneity in reports, our findings support the suggestions that people with epilepsy have an increased risk of premature mortality from various causes. Further work is needed to elucidate the mechanisms, to determine biomarkers for predicting those at risk, and to understand the implications of counseling and preventive strategies.

Twelve-Month Outcomes of a Group-Randomized Community Health Advocate-Led Smoking Cessation Intervention in Public Housing.

Background: Lower rates of smoking cessation are a major reason for the higher prevalence of smoking among socioeconomically disadvantaged adults. Because barriers to quitting are both more numerous and severe, socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers may benefit from more intensive intervention. We sought to determine whether a smoking cessation intervention delivered by public housing residents trained as Tobacco Treatment Advocates (TTAs) could increase utilization of cessation resources and increase abstinence. Methods: We conducted a group-randomized trial among Boston public housing residents who were interested in quitting smoking. Participants at control sites received standard cessation materials and a one-time visit from a TTA who provided basic counseling and information about cessation resources. Participants at intervention sites were eligible for multiple visits by a TTA who employed motivational interviewing, cessation counseling, and navigation to encourage smokers to utilize cessation treatment (Smokers' Quitline and clinic-based programs). Utilization and 7-day and 30-day point prevalence abstinence were assessed at 12 months. Self-reported abstinence was biochemically verified. Results: Intervention participants (n = 121) were more likely than control participants (n = 129) to both utilize treatment programs (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.15; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-4.91) and 7-day and 30-day point prevalence abstinence (aOR: 2.60 (1.72-3.94); 2.98 (1.56-5.68), respectively). Mediation analysis indicated that the higher level of utilization did not explain the intervention effect. Conclusions: An intervention delivered by peer health advocates was able to increase utilization of treatment programs and smoking abstinence among public housing residents. Future studies of similar types of interventions should identify the key mechanisms responsible for success. Implications: In order to narrow the large and growing socioeconomic disparity in smoking rates, more effective cessation interventions are needed for low-income smokers. Individual culturally-relevant coaching provided in smokers' residences may help overcome the heightened barriers to cessation experienced by this group of smokers. In this study among smokers residing in public housing, an intervention delivered by peer health advocates trained in motivational interviewing, basic smoking cessation skills, and client navigation significantly increased abstinence at 12 months. Future research should address whether these findings are replicable in other settings both within and outside of public housing.

Persistent socioeconomic disparities in cardiovascular risk factors and health in the United States: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey 2002-2013.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Socioeconomic status (SES) has been linked to worse cardiovascular risk factor (CRF) profiles and higher rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD), with an especially high burden of disease for low-income groups. We aimed to describe the trends in prevalence of CRFs among US adults by SES from 2002 to 2013. METHODS: Data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey was analyzed. CRFs (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, physical inactivity, smoking and hypercholesterolemia), were ascertained by ICD-9-CM and/or self-report. RESULTS: The proportion of individuals with obesity, diabetes and hypertension increased overall, with low-income groups representing a higher prevalence for each CRF. Of note, physical inactivity had the highest prevalence increase, with the "lowest-income" group observing a relative percent increase of 71.1%. CONCLUSIONS: Disparities in CRF burden continue to increase, across SES groups. Strategies to potentially eliminate the persistent health disparities gap may include a shift to greater coverage for prevention, and efforts to engage in healthy lifestyle behaviors.