National Trends in Gender Diversity Among Trainees and Practicing Physicians in Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery in Canada.

Importance: Monitoring the evolution of gender diversity within medicine is essential to understanding the medical workforce and anticipating its future. Objective: To evaluate gender distribution and trends among trainees and practicing physicians in the field of otolaryngology-head and neck surgery (OHNS) across Canada. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study collected demographic data on the Canadian population, medical students, resident physicians, fellows, practicing physicians, and full-time professors from the following publicly available databases: the Canadian Post-MD Education Registry, the Canadian Medical Education Statistics from the Association of Faculties of Medicine of Canada, the Canadian Medical Association Masterfile, the Canadian Resident Matching Service archives, and the Canadian Institute for Health Information from 2000 to 2019. Information about the gender distribution in leadership positions and fellowships was obtained through publicly available websites where gender was either listed or assigned by authors. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were the proportion of women in OHNS and the evolution of gender diversity over time. Results: In 2019, 65 of 155 of OHNS trainees were female (41.9%), whereas female representation among all surgical trainees combined was 1225 of 2496 (49.1%). Female OHNS trainees and practicing physicians are underrepresented despite a 13.3% increase in female trainees and a 14.3% increase in female staff physicians from 2000 to 2019. Proportionally fewer female graduates pursued a fellowship during a 10-year period compared with their male counterparts, with otology and neurotology having the lowest female representation (6 of 27 [22.2%]). A minimal increase occurred in the number of women holding academic leadership positions (eg, 4 of 13 residency training programs had a previous or current female director). Conclusions and Relevance: Despite the overall increase in the representation of women in the field of OHNS in Canada, these findings suggest that persistent gender gaps remain with respect to academic leadership positions and fellowship training. Continuous monitoring of the surgical workforce is important to highlight and address gender disparities within OHNS.

Workforce Trends in Spinal Surgery: Geographic Distribution and Primary Specialty Characteristics from 2012 to 2017.

OBJECTIVE: Although both neurosurgeons and orthopedic surgeons specialize in spinal care, it is not clear how this increased demand for spine surgeons has affected these fields. In this study, we aim to characterize the total number, geographic distribution, and procedural rate of laminectomies of spine surgeons by their primary specialty from 2012 to 2017. METHODS: Neurosurgical and orthopedic data from 2012 to 2017 were obtained from the Medicare Provider Utilization Database. The databases were filtered by the primary specialty to include "Neurosurgeons" and "Orthopedic surgery." To select specifically for spine surgeons, the 203 Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System codes relating to spinal procedures were chosen as additional filters. RESULTS: Between 2012 and 2017, the total number of spine surgeons in the United States increased by 9.6% from 3,861 to 4,241 total surgeons. The South experienced the largest percentage increase in spine surgeons from 1,584 surgeons in 2012 to 1,769 in 2017 (11.7%). Over this 5-year span, neurosurgeons performed a greater share of both cervical and lumbar laminectomies, but orthopedic spine surgeons saw a greater increase in procedural growth (+87.2% cervical and +16.7% lumbar). CONCLUSIONS: There is relatively slow growth in the workforce of spinal surgery, with orthopedic spine specialists outpacing the growth seen in neurosurgical spine. This growth is seen at different rates across different regions in the U.S., with the South experiencing the highest rate of growth. Finally, although neurologic surgery performs more laminectomies in both the lumbar and cervical region, orthopedic surgeons are quickly increasing their proportion of performed procedures.

The evolving sex, race, and ethnic composition of the surgical workforce: North Carolina is a bellwether of national change.

BACKGROUND: North Carolina, as a state with a significant Black population and fast-growing Hispanic population, serves as bellwether of demographic changes nationally and the challenges facing the nation to recruit and retain a general surgery workforce that mirrors the population. METHODS: Annual licensure data from the North Carolina Medical Board were analyzed between 2004 and 2019. Physicians self-reporting a specialty of abdominal surgery, critical care surgery, colon and rectal surgery, general surgery, trauma surgery, proctology, and surgical oncology were categorized as general surgeons. RESULTS: Female surgeons made the most gains from 2004, at just 8% of the workforce in 2004 to 26% of the workforce in 2019. Over the same period, Black surgeons increased from just 5% to 6% of the workforce, with those gains largely represented by Black female surgeons. Almost half of North Carolina's Black physicians are aged 46 and 55 and will be nearing retirement in the coming decade. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Hispanic general surgeons were 45 or younger, and one-third of these young surgeons were international medical graduates. CONCLUSION: Although the general surgery workforce in North Carolina is slowly diversifying, growth in the Black surgeon workforce has stagnated in the last 15 years at levels much lower than their representation in the population. More research is needed on the individual and life course phenomena that drive this underrepresentation.

Emerging Trends in the Neurosurgical Workforce of Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Every year, there are an estimated 22.6 million new neurosurgical consultative cases worldwide, of which 13.8 million require surgery. In 2016, the global neurosurgical workforce was estimated and mapped as open-access information to guide neurosurgeons, affiliates, and policy makers. We present a subsequent investigation for mapping the global neurosurgical workforce for 2018 to show the replicability of previous data collection methods as well as to show any changes in workforce density. METHODS: We extracted data on the absolute number of neurosurgeons per low and middle-income countries (LMICs) in 2016 from the database of the global neurosurgical workforce mapping project. The estimated number of neurosurgeons in each LMIC during 2018 was obtained from collaborators. The median workforce densities were calculated for 2016 and 2018. Neurosurgical workforce density heat maps were generated. RESULTS: We received data from 119 countries (response rate 86.2%) and imputed data for 19 countries (13.8%). Seventy-eight (56.5%, N = 138) countries had an increase in their number of neurosurgeons, 9 (6.5%) showed a decrease, whereas 51 (37.0%) had the same number of neurosurgeons in both years. The pooled median increased from 0.17 (interquartile range, 0.54) in 2016 to 0.18 (interquartile range, 0.59) in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the density of the neurosurgical workforce has increased from 2016 to 2018. However, at the current rate, 80 LMICs (58.0%) will not meet the neurosurgical workforce density target by 2030.

I Can't Breathe: The Continued Disproportionate Exclusion of Black Physicians in the United States Radiation Oncology Workforce.

PURPOSE: Black physicians remain disproportionately underrepresented in certain medical specialties, yet comprehensive assessments in radiation oncology (RO) are lacking. Our purpose was to report current and historical representation trends for Black physicians in the US RO workforce. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Public registries were used to assess significant differences in 2016 representation for US vs RO Black academic full-time faculty, residents, and applicants. Historical changes from 1970 to 2016 were reported descriptively. Linear regression was used to assess significant changes for Black residents and faculty from 1995 to 2016. RESULTS: In 2016, Black people represented 3.2% vs 1.5% (P < .001), 5.6% vs 3.2% (P = .005), and 6.5% vs 5.4% (P = .352) of US vs RO faculty, residents, and applicants, respectively. Although RO residents nearly doubled from 374 (1974) to 720 (2016), Black residents peaked at 31 in 1984 (5.9%; 31 of 522) and fell to 23 (3.2%; 23 of 720) in 2016 across 91 accredited programs; Black US graduate medical education trainees nearly doubled over the same period: 3506 (1984) to 6905 (2016). From 1995 to 2016, Black US resident representation significantly increased by 0.03%/y, but decreased significantly in RO by -0.20%/y before 2006 and did not change significantly thereafter. Over the same period, Black US faculty representation significantly increased by 0.02%/y, whereas Black RO faculty significantly increased by 0.07%/y before 2006, then decreased significantly by -0.16%/y thereafter. The number of Black RO faculty peaked at 37 in 2006 (3.1%; 37 of 1203) and was 27 (1.5%; 27 of 1769) in 2016, despite the nearly 1.5-fold increase in the number of both RO faculty and Black US faculty overall (4169 in 2006 and 6047 in 2016) during that period. CONCLUSIONS: Black physicians remain disproportionately underrepresented in RO despite an increasing available pipeline in the US physician workforce. Deliberate efforts to understand barriers to specialty training and inclusion, along with evidence-based targeted interventions to overcome them, are needed to ensure diversification of the RO physician workforce.

Spatial Dynamics of Internal Migration Flows of the Skilled and Unskilled in Mexico / Dinámica espacial de los flujos de migración interna de personas calificadas y no calificadas en México

Abstract The dynamics of the internal migration is a crucial element in the composition of the workforce of a certain region, so its analysis contributes to the better understanding of labor markets and sociodemographic changes in a region. In order to characterize the most recent patterns of migratory flows of skilled and unskilled labor, census data are considered for the periods 1995-2000, 2005-2010 and 2010- 2015. The analysis considers different indicators that describe the intensity and relative concentration of interstate migration. Changes in migratory patterns are evident; a lower concentration of internal migration whose effect is more marked for unskilled labor. That is, it is observed that the number of states that play a preponderant role in the redistribution of labor in Mexico has increased. The relationship of domestic labor mobility is evident to the regional transformation as a result of new geographical patterns of location of investment, production and economic agglomeration.

Resumen La dinámica de la migración interna en México es un elemento determinante en la composición de la mano de obra de cierta región, por lo que su análisis coadyuva, entre otras cosas, al mejor entendimiento de los mercados laborales y cambios sociodemográficos de la región. Con la finalidad de caracterizar los patrones más recientes de los flujos migratorios de la mano obra calificada y no calificada, se consideran datos censales para los periodos 1995-2000, 2005-2010 y 2010-2015. Con esto se estiman diferentes indicadores que describen la intensidad y concentración relativa de la migración interestatal. Se evidencian cambios en los patrones migratorios y una menor concentración de la migración interna, cuyo efecto es más marcado para la mano de obra no calificada. Es decir, se observa que el número de entidades que juegan un rol preponderante en la redistribución de la mano obra en México ha aumentado. La relación de la movilidad laboral interna se hace evidente con el dinamismo regional y como resultado de nuevos patrones geográficos de ubicación de inversión, producción y aglomeración económica.

Spatial distribution and temporal trend of National Health System and Supplemental Health Sector human resources, Brazil, 2005-2016. / A distribuição espacial e a tendência temporal de recursos humanos para o Sistema Único de Saúde e para a Saúde Suplementar, Brasil, 2005 a 2016.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal trend of human resources for the Brazilian National Health System (SUS) and the Supplemental Health sector. METHODS: an ecological study was conducted in the country's 27 Federative Units (FUs); SUS Information Technology Department (DATASUS) data were used relating to the doctor, dental surgeon, nurse and nursing technician personnel categories for the period 2005-2016; Prais-Winsten regression was used to assess the time trend. RESULTS: there was an rising trend of Supplemental Health Sector human resources in all personnel categories, with an mean annual increase of 0.054 (95%CI: 0.031;0.076); with regard to SUS, there was an increase in dental surgeons and nursing technicians, with annual increases of 0.008 (95%CI: 0.003;0.011), and 0.066 (95%CI 0.022; 0.087), respectively, while in most FU, nurses showed a stationary trend and doctors showed a stationary or falling trend. CONCLUSION: inequalities were found in human resource distribution, reflecting the health system crisis.

Tendências estruturais do mundo do trabalho no Brasil / Structural trends in the world of work in Brazil

Resumo Através de breve recuperação histórica busca-se descrever as principais tendências do mundo do trabalho no Brasil. A ênfase do ensaio focaliza a atual transição antecipada para a sociedade de serviços, cuja alteração significativa pode ser observada no próprio funcionamento do mercado de trabalho. Também se considera a predominância do massivo desemprego aberto, da ampliação da subutilização da força de trabalho e da generalização da precarização nas ocupações em função da ausência de crescimento econômico e do retorno das reformas neoliberais. O resultado tem sido a polarização crescente no interior do mundo do trabalho.

Abstract Through a brief historical recovery, the article seeks to describe the main trends in the world of work in Brazil. The emphasis of the article focuses on the current early transition to the service society, whose significant change can be observed in the operation of the labor market itself. Also, it considers the predominance of massive open unemployment, the expansion of the underutilization of the labor force and the generalization of precariousness in professions due to the absence of economic growth and the return of the neoliberal reforms. The result has been the increasing polarization within the world of work.

Identifying Barriers to Building a Diverse Physician Workforce: A National Survey of the ACR Membership.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to identify potential barriers to building a diverse workforce in radiology and radiation oncology by conducting a national survey of physicians in these fields and studying their reported career experiences. METHODS: An electronic survey of ACR members (February 27, 2018, to April 26, 2018) was conducted in which physicians' attitudes about their work environment, relationships, and culture were queried. The aim was to determine if responses differed by gender or race/ethnicity. In total, 900 invitations were issued; women were oversampled with the goal of equal representation. Descriptive summaries (proportions of yes or no responses) were calculated per item, per subgroup of interest. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify significant associations between gender- and item-specific responses; it was not used in the race/ethnicity analysis because of the small sizes of many subgroups. RESULTS: The response rate was 51.2% (461 of 900). In total, 51.0% of respondents identified as women (235 of 461); the 9.5% (44 of 461) who identified as black or African American, Hispanic, or American Indian or Alaska Native were considered underrepresented minorities. Respondents' mean age was 40.2 ± 10.4 years. Subgroups varied most in their reporting of unfair or disrespectful treatment. Women were significantly more likely than men to report such treatment attributable to gender (50.6% versus 5.4%; odds ratio, 18.00; 95% confidence interval, 9.29-34.86; P < .001), and 27.9% of underrepresented minorities compared with 2.6% of white non-Hispanic respondents reported such treatment attributable to race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Women and underrepresented minorities disproportionately experience unfair or disrespectful treatment in the workplace. Addressing this problem is likely to be critically important for improving workforce diversity.

Trends in the US and Canadian Pathologist Workforces From 2007 to 2017.

Importance: The current state of the US pathologist workforce is uncertain, with deficits forecast over the next 2 decades. Objective: To examine the trends in the US pathology workforce from 2007 to 2017. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cross-sectional study was conducted comparing the number of US and Canadian physicians from 2007 to 2017 with a focus on pathologists, radiologists, and anesthesiologists. For the United States, the number of physicians was examined at the state population level with a focus on pathologists. New cancer diagnoses per pathologist were compared between the United States and Canada. These data from the American Association of Medical Colleges Center for Workforce Studies' Physician Specialty Data Books and the Canadian Medical Association Masterfile were analyzed from January 4, 2019, through March 26, 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Numbers of pathologists were compared with overall physician numbers as well as numbers of radiologists and anesthesiologists in the United States and Canada. Results: Between 2007 and 2017, the number of active pathologists in the United States decreased from 15 568 to 12 839 (-17.53%). In contrast, Canadian data showed an increase from 1467 to 1767 pathologists during the same period (+20.45%). When adjusted for each country's population, the number of pathologists per 100 000 population showed a decline from 5.16 to 3.94 in the United States and an increase from 4.46 to 4.81 in Canada. As a percentage of total US physicians, pathologists have decreased from 2.03% in 2007 to 1.43% in 2017. The distribution of US pathologists varied widely by state; per 100 000 population, Idaho had the fewest (1.37) and the District of Columbia had the most (15.71). When adjusted by new cancer cases per year, the diagnostic workload per US pathologist has risen by 41.73%; during the same period, the Canadian diagnostic workload increased by 7.06%. Conclusions and Relevance: The US pathologist workforce decreased in both absolute and population-adjusted numbers from 2007 to 2017. The current trends suggest a shortage of US pathologists.

Progress in adolescent health and wellbeing: tracking 12 headline indicators for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016.

BACKGROUND: Rapid demographic, epidemiological, and nutritional transitons have brought a pressing need to track progress in adolescent health. Here, we present country-level estimates of 12 headline indicators from the Lancet Commission on adolescent health and wellbeing, from 1990 to 2016. METHODS: Indicators included those of health outcomes (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs] due to communicable, maternal, and nutritional diseases; injuries; and non-communicable diseases); health risks (tobacco smoking, binge drinking, overweight, and anaemia); and social determinants of health (adolescent fertility; completion of secondary education; not in education, employment, or training [NEET]; child marriage; and demand for contraception satisfied with modern methods). We drew data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016, International Labour Organisation, household surveys, and the Barro-Lee education dataset. FINDINGS: From 1990 to 2016, remarkable shifts in adolescent health occurred. A decrease in disease burden in many countries has been offset by population growth in countries with the poorest adolescent health profiles. Compared with 1990, an additional 250 million adolescents were living in multi-burden countries in 2016, where they face a heavy and complex burden of disease. The rapidity of nutritional transition is evident from the 324·1 million (18%) of 1·8 billion adolescents globally who were overweight or obese in 2016, an increase of 176·9 million compared with 1990, and the 430·7 million (24%) who had anaemia in 2016, an increase of 74·2 million compared with 1990. Child marriage remains common, with an estimated 66 million women aged 20-24 years married before age 18 years. Although gender-parity in secondary school completion exists globally, prevalence of NEET remains high for young women in multi-burden countries, suggesting few opportunities to enter the workforce in these settings. INTERPRETATION: Although disease burden has fallen in many settings, demographic shifts have heightened global inequalities. Global disease burden has changed little since 1990 and the prevalence of many adolescent health risks have increased. Health, education, and legal systems have not kept pace with shifting adolescent needs and demographic changes. Gender inequity remains a powerful driver of poor adolescent health in many countries. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluating horizontal violence and bullying in the nursing workforce of an oncology academic medical center.

AIM: To evaluate horizontal violence and bullying in the nursing workforce of an oncology inpatient and outpatient academic centre and to test the Horizontal Violence Scale in an outpatient setting. BACKGROUND: Horizontal violence (HV) and bullying in the workplace are dysfunctional behaviours that can affect nursing staff and patient care. The impact of bullying and HV is multilevel, affecting patient safety and satisfaction, nursing retention and employee satisfaction, while creating poor patient outcomes. METHODS: A quantitative cross-sectional descriptive design was used to examine prevalence of HV and bullying and the relationship between HV and bullying of nursing department personnel in an oncology setting. RESULTS: The study findings revealed significant positive relationships between bullying and HV in both inpatient and outpatient settings. CONCLUSION: Nurses experience diverse workplace violence, which could decrease their professional quality of life and affect their turnover intention no matter the work setting. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING MANAGEMENT: The findings of this study clearly link the presence of bullying and HV, which includes, emotional, physical, verbal and defiant behaviours to both inpatient and outpatient workplace settings. A positive organisational culture, which can be shaped by nursing leaders, can create a work environment that can thwart workplace violence.

The Employment Experience of Recent Graduates From US Radiation Oncology Training Programs: The Practice Entry Survey Results From 2012 to 2017.

PURPOSE: The Practice Entry Survey presentation is a highly anticipated session for the radiation oncology (RO) resident at the American Society for Radiation Oncology annual meeting. Each year the senior author reports the employment outcomes and job market experiences for the most recently graduated RO residents. METHODS: The Practice Entry Survey has been continuously administered annually to graduated RO residents since 1984 via the Association of Residents in Radiation Oncology directory. Six years of individual-level data, from 2012 to 2017, were readily available for analysis. The questionnaire queries the workforce placement experience and collects debt, salary, and benefits information. Respondents were subgrouped by practice type (academic vs private practice), and results were tested for trends over time. RESULTS: Survey data were collected from 302 recently graduated residents. There were 7 in fellowship and 1 practicing internationally, leaving 294 eligible for analysis. They identified themselves as working in either an academic setting (n = 150 [51%]) or private practice (n = 144 [49%]). First-year salaries for those in private practice were more than those in academics ($303,000; [interquartile range, $270,000-$375,000] versus $280,000 [interquartile range, $260,000-$325,000]; P < .01). With regard to the job search, 21.8% of respondents found their jobs through the online American Society for Radiation Oncology Career Center, while most respondents, 77.2%, found their jobs through other means. Respondents also ranked the items they found to be most helpful during the interview process. CONCLUSIONS: These data can help gauge the competitiveness of an offer as well as what to expect during the job hunt and interview process.

Evolution of Workforce Diversity in Surgery✰.

OBJECTIVE: Assessing workforce diversity over time is essential to understanding how it has evolved and anticipating its future. We conducted the current study to evaluate gender, racial/ethnic, and duty trends over the past decade in general surgery and surgical subspecialties. DESIGN: This is a cross-sectional study. We calculated ratios and relative changes to assess potential differences of physicians' characteristics across time and surgical subspecialties. SETTING: We evaluated data acquired by the Association of American Medical Colleges. PARTICIPANTS: We extracted data from the 2000 to 2013 including the overall number of surgeons, surgeon race/ethnicity, gender, and primary professional activity. RESULTS: During 2000 to 2013, the total number of surgeons increased 11.5%, reaching 172,062 active surgeons and residents, the majority of whom were White (64%) or male (75%). However, from 2000 to 2013, most specialties showed some improvement in terms of including minorities and females. Most surgeons (98%) participate in patient care while a small portion are devoted to other activities (e.g., administrative, research, teaching; 2%). Both groups increased over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the face of surgery is changing. Continuous monitoring of the surgical workforce is important to anticipate future needs and to serve a diverse patient population.

Defining the abdominal radiologist based on the current U.S. job market.

PURPOSE: The purpose of the study is to characterize current practice patterns of abdominal radiologists based on work descriptions within job postings on numerous national radiology specialty websites. METHODS: Job postings for either "abdominal" or "body" radiologists were searched weekly on five society websites (SAR, SCBT-MR, ARRS, ACR, RSNA) over a 1-year period. Postings were reviewed for various characteristics. RESULTS: Nine hundred and sixteen total ads for 341 unique abdominal radiologist positions were reviewed (34.6% academic, 64.2% private practice, 1.2% other). Postings occurred most commonly in March (12.3%) and least commonly in November (4.8%). States with most positions were Florida (27), California (26), and New York (24). Of postings delineating expectations of specific abdominal modalities, 67.4% mentioned MRI, 58.5% ultrasound, 41.1% fluoroscopy, 14.3% PET, and 54.0% interventions. Additional non-abdominal expectations included general radiology (28.7%), breast imaging (21.1%), and general nuclear medicine (9.7%). Additional skills included prostate MRI (7.0%), OBGYN ultrasound (5.0%), and CT colonoscopy (2.6%). 79.2% required an abdominal imaging fellowship (specifically a body MRI fellowship in 4.1%). CONCLUSION: By using job postings for abdominal radiologists, we have taken a practical approach to characterizing the current status of this subspecialty, reflecting recent job expectations and requirements. The large majority of positions required a body fellowship, and the positions commonly entailed a variety of skills beyond non-invasive diagnostic abdominal imaging. Of note, expectations of considerable minorities of positions included abdominal interventions, general radiology, and breast imaging. These insights may guide the development of abdominal radiology fellowships and mini-fellowships, as well as assist radiologists entering or returning to the job market.

The Pediatric Anesthesiology Workforce: Projecting Supply and Trends 2015-2035.

BACKGROUND: A workforce analysis was conducted to predict whether the projected future supply of pediatric anesthesiologists is balanced with the requirements of the inpatient pediatric population. The specific aims of our analysis were to (1) project the number of pediatric anesthesiologists in the future workforce; (2) project pediatric anesthesiologist-to-pediatric population ratios (0-17 years); (3) project the mean number of inpatient pediatric procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist; and (4) evaluate the effect of alternative projections of individual variables on the model projections through 2035. METHODS: The future number of pediatric anesthesiologists is determined by the current supply, additions to the workforce, and departures from the workforce. We previously compiled a database of US pediatric anesthesiologists in the base year of 2015. The historical linear growth rate for pediatric anesthesiology fellowship positions was determined using the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education Data Resource Books from 2002 to 2016. The future number of pediatric anesthesiologists in the workforce was projected given growth of pediatric anesthesiology fellowship positions at the historical linear growth rate, modeling that 75% of graduating fellows remain in the pediatric anesthesiology workforce, and anesthesiologists retire at the current mean retirement age of 64 years old. The baseline model projections were accompanied by age- and gender-adjusted anesthesiologist supply, and sensitivity analyses of potential variations in fellowship position growth, retirement, pediatric population, inpatient surgery, and market share to evaluate the effect of each model variable on the baseline model. The projected ratio of pediatric anesthesiologists to pediatric population was determined using the 2012 US Census pediatric population projections. The projected number of inpatient pediatric procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist was determined using the Kids' Inpatient Database historical data to project the future number of inpatient procedures (including out of operating room procedures). RESULTS: In 2015, there were 5.4 pediatric anesthesiologists per 100,000 pediatric population and a mean (±standard deviation [SD]) of 262 ±8 inpatient procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist. If historical trends continue, there will be an estimated 7.4 pediatric anesthesiologists per 100,000 pediatric population and a mean (±SD) 193 ±6 inpatient procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist in 2035. If pediatric anesthesiology fellowship positions plateau at 2015 levels, there will be an estimated 5.7 pediatric anesthesiologists per 100,000 pediatric population and a mean (±SD) 248 ±7 inpatient procedures per pediatric anesthesiologist in 2035. CONCLUSIONS: If historical trends continue, the growth in pediatric anesthesiologist supply may exceed the growth in both the pediatric population and inpatient procedures in the 20-year period from 2015 to 2035.

Who Performs Colonoscopy? Workforce Trends Over Space and Time.

PURPOSE: With the increased availability of colonoscopy to average risk persons due to insurance coverage benefit changes, we sought to identify changes in the colonoscopy workforce. We used outpatient discharge records from South Carolina between 2001 and 2010 to examine shifts over time and in urban versus rural areas in the types of medical providers who perform colonoscopy, and the practice settings in which they occur, and to explore variation in colonoscopy volume across facility and provider types. METHODS: Using an all-payer outpatient discharge records database from South Carolina, we conducted a retrospective analysis of all colonoscopy procedures performed between 2001 and 2010. FINDINGS: We identified a major shift in the type of facilities performing colonoscopy in South Carolina since 2001, with substantial gains in ambulatory surgery settings (2001: 15, 2010: 34, +127%) versus hospitals (2001: 58, 2010: 59, +2%), particularly in urban areas (2001: 12, 2010: 27, +125%). The number of internists (2001: 46, 2010: 76) and family physicians (2001: 34, 2010: 106) performing colonoscopies also increased (+65% and +212%, respectively), while their annual procedures volumes stayed fairly constant. Significant variation in annual colonoscopy volume was observed across medical specialties (P < .001), with nongastroenterologists having lower volumes versus gastroenterologists and colon and rectal surgeons. CONCLUSIONS: There have been substantial changes over time in the number of facilities and physicians performing colonoscopy in South Carolina since 2001, particularly in urban counties. Findings suggest nongastroenterologists are meeting a need for colonoscopies in rural areas.