Early stopping in clinical PET studies: How to reduce expense and exposure.

Clinical positron emission tomography (PET) research is costly and entails exposing participants to radioactivity. Researchers should therefore aim to include just the number of subjects needed to fulfill the purpose of the study. In this tutorial we show how to apply sequential Bayes Factor testing in order to stop the recruitment of subjects in a clinical PET study as soon as enough data have been collected to make a conclusion. By using simulations, we demonstrate that it is possible to stop a study early, while keeping the number of erroneous conclusions low. We then apply sequential Bayes Factor testing to a real PET data set and show that it is possible to obtain support in favor of an effect while simultaneously reducing the sample size with 30%. Using this procedure allows researchers to reduce expense and radioactivity exposure for a range of effect sizes relevant for PET research.

Typology of drug discontinuation trials - Methodological recommendations.

OBJECTIVE: Due to the increasing concerns about polypharmacy, there is a growing need for clinical recommendations for drug discontinuation. This requires studies investigating the process on several levels. This paper addresses the methodological problems of drug discontinuation trials (DDTs). To that end, we offer a new typology of research aims and corresponding methodological recommendations for trials evaluating drug discontinuation. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Multi-stage development process, including literature search and expert panels. RESULTS: Clinical trials are only required in cases of scientific uncertainty. We identified three situations of uncertainty associated with drug discontinuation from which we derived three study types: 1) Uncertainty regarding the effectiveness and/or safety of a drug; 2) Uncertainty regarding the procedure of discontinuing a previously taken drug; 3) Uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of complex strategies used to discontinue one or more drugs. We developed specific methodological recommendations for each study type. CONCLUSION: We offer a comprehensive definition of research aims, study designs, and methodological recommendations regarding DDTs. The typology we propose can help investigators clarify their research aims and study design. The type-specific methodological recommendation should improve the quality of future drug discontinuation trials.

A two-stage phase II clinical trial design with nested criteria for early stopping and efficacy.

We propose a two-stage design for a single arm clinical trial with an early stopping rule for futility. This design employs different endpoints to assess early stopping and efficacy. The early stopping rule is based on a criteria determined more quickly than that for efficacy. These separate criteria are also nested in the sense that efficacy is a special case of, but usually not identical to, the early stopping endpoint. The design readily allows for planning in terms of statistical significance, power, expected sample size, and expected duration. This method is illustrated with a phase II design comparing rates of disease progression in elderly patients treated for lung cancer to rates found using a historical control. In this example, the early stopping rule is based on the number of patients who exhibit progression-free survival (PFS) at 2 months post treatment follow-up. Efficacy is judged by the number of patients who have PFS at 6 months. We demonstrate our design has expected sample size and power comparable with the Simon two-stage design but exhibits shorter expected duration under a range of useful parameter values.

Early stopping rules in oncology: considerations for clinicians.

The number of cancer-related clinical trials has been rapidly increasing over the past decade. Along with this increase, oncology studies stopped early for benefit or harm have also been more common. Clinicians treating cancer patients often are faced with the challenge of having to decide whether or not to incorporate information from these new studies into their daily clinical practice. This review article explains the role of the Data and Safety Monitoring Committee in stopping trials early; provides examples of oncology trials stopped early; and reviews some of the controversies and statistical concepts associated with early stopping rules. In addition, a simple and practical approach to interpreting the findings of trials that are stopped early is provided to assist clinicians in deciding how to incorporate information from these studies into their daily practice.

Randomised controlled trials in oncology closed early for benefit: trends in methodology, results, and interpretation.

PURPOSE: To assess methodology, results and interpretation of oncology randomised controlled trials closed early for benefit (RCTCEB). METHODS: Structured literature search (1950-2008) to identify all published oncology RCTCEB. We then searched for related follow-up articles and conference abstracts to evaluate whether study results and conclusions changed with longer follow-up. A standardised data abstraction process captured information related to statistical methodology, details of interim analyses, results and conclusions. Original articles and follow-up reports were compared for results of primary end-point and author conclusions. RESULTS: We identified 71 RCTCEB. In 16 articles (23%) the study primary end-point was not explicitly stated. Most trials were open to accrual (47/71, 66%) at the time of closure. Formal interim analysis was performed in 65 (92%) trials of which 72% (47/65) was reported as planned; 82% (53/65) reported stopping rules. Trials on average accrued 75% of the planned sample size. Amongst the 23 (32%) RCTCEB with follow-up reports, in only one case did the study results or conclusions change substantially. CONCLUSIONS: While the majority of oncology RCTCEB follows rigourous methodological principles, an important percentage includes limitations in design and/or analysis. Amongst the 23 studies with subsequent follow-up reports, initial results were confirmed in 22 (96%).