Proposal of a New Preoperative Prognostic Model for Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incorporating 18F-FDG-PET Imaging with the ALBI Grade.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Existing prognostic systems were not developed using only objective variables available preoperatively, and therefore do not provide ideal prognostication for patients undergoing hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to develop a preoperative prognostic model using objective variables involving two parameters 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (18F-FDG-PET) and the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade. METHODS: This study included 207 consecutive patients with solitary HCC who underwent 18F-FDG-PET prior to hepatectomy. The tumor to non-tumor maximum standardized uptake value ratio (TNR) was used as an 18F-FDG PET imaging parameter. RESULTS: The 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 58.6% and 28.8%, respectively. Multivariate analysis of OS identified TNR ≥ 2 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.743, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.114-2.648, p = 0.016) and ALBI grade 2 (HR 1.966, 95% CI 1.349-2.884, p < 0.001) as the only significant prognostic factors; tumor diameter and tumor markers were not significant. Patients were divided into low- (TNR < 2 and ALBI grade 1), intermediate- (TNR < 2 and ALBI grade 2, or TNR ≥ 2 and ALBI grade 1), and high-risk (TNR ≥ 2 and ALBI grade 2) groups, which differed significantly in terms of survival (5-year OS 75.7, 49.6, and 27.3%, respectively, p < 0.001; 5-year DFS 37.0, 24.9, and 13.6%, respectively, p < 0.001). Compared with other staging systems, our model had the best discriminatory ability (corrected Akaike information criteria 1054.8, p < 0.001) and homogeneity (likelihood ratio Chi square value 27.6, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: A preoperative prognostic model incorporating 18F-FDG-PET imaging with the ALBI grade may be useful for estimating the prognosis of selected patients with solitary HCC.