[Analysis on liver cancer mortality and cause eliminated life expectancy in key areas of 4 provinces, China, 2008-2018].

ABSTRACT

Objective: To explore the changes of liver cancer mortality and the effect of liver cancer on life expectancy in key areas of four provinces in China from 2008 to 2018 and provide the basis for the evaluation of comprehensive prevention and control of cancer and promotion of the rational allocation of health resources. Methods: Based on the national cause-of-death surveillance in key areas of the 4 provinces from 2008 to 2018, we analyzed the mortality of liver cancer, cause eliminated life expectancy (CELE) and potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs). Software Joinpoint 4.9.0.0 was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Arriaga's decomposition method was used to estimate the contribution of the changes of liver cancer mortality in each age group to life expectancy. Results: The standardized mortality of liver cancer in key areas of the 4 provinces showed a downward trend from 2008 to 2018 (AAPC=-4.37%, P<0.001). The changes of liver cancer mortality had a positive effect on the increase of life expectancy, with a contribution value of 0.240 years and a contribution degree of 5.62%. The positive effect was greatest in age group 45-49 years (0.041 years, 0.96%), and the negative effect was greatest in age group 50-54 years (-0.015 years, -0.35%). Compared with 2008, the life expectancy increased by 4.27 years (AAPC=0.59%, P<0.001), the liver cancer CELE increased by 4.20 years (AAPC=0.58%, P<0.001), the PGLEs decreased by 0.07 years (AAPC=-0.62%,P<0.001), and life loss rate decreased by 0.13% (AAPC=-1.18%, P=0.001). The liver cancer PGLEs increased in Yongqiao district, Anhui province (0.09 years), and decreased in other districts (counties), with the largest decline was in Fugou county, Henan province (-0.21 years). Conclusions: From 2008 to 2018, the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in key areas of the 4 provinces decreased gradually, contributing to the growth of life expectancy. The life loss caused by liver cancer decreased gradually, but the PGLEs varied with districts (counties).