New-Onset Type 2 Diabetes after Bariatric Surgery: A Matched Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: The objective of this study is to determine the difference in rates of new-onset type 2 diabetes (T2D) for individuals who have had metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS) and similar individuals who did not have MBS, and to determine whether differences in new-onset T2D differ depending on whether the individual had prediabetes at baseline. METHODS: This study used data from a large United States employer-based retrospective claims database from 2016 to 2021 (analysis completed in 2023). Individuals who did and did not have MBS were matched 11 on index year, sex, age, health plan type, region, body mass index, baseline healthcare costs, other obesity-related comorbidities, prediabetes diagnosis, and inpatient admissions in the year before the index date. New-onset T2D was examined at 1 (18,752 matches) and 3 (5,416 matches) years after the index date and stratified by baseline prediabetes. RESULTS: Among the full cohort of individuals with and without prediabetes at baseline, 0.1% and 2.7% of individuals who had did and did not have MBS developed T2D within 1 year after the index date, respectively (difference=2.6, 95% CI 2.4-2.8), and 0.3% and 8.4% of individuals who did and did not have MBS developed T2D within 3 years after the index date, respectively (difference=8.1, 95% CI 7.3-8.8). The difference in new-onset T2D was greatest among individuals with prediabetes at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated patients with obesity and without T2D who undergo MBS are significantly less likely to develop new-onset T2D compared to matched non-MBS patients.