Waiting time predicts survival after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: a cohort study using the United Network for Organ Sharing registry.

Recipients of liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have an 8% to 20% risk of HCC recurrence. Single-center studies suggest that a period of waiting after HCC therapy may facilitate the selection of patients at low risk for post-LT HCC recurrence and mortality. We evaluated whether a longer waiting time after Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) prioritization for HCC predicts longer post-LT survival. From the United Network for Organ Sharing registry, we selected 2 groups registered for LT between March 2005 and March 2009: (1) HCC patients receiving MELD prioritization and (2) non-HCC patients. Patients were stratified by their MELD status at LT (a marker of time on the wait list after HCC MELD prioritization) and were followed from LT until death or censoring through October 2012. By comparing post-LT survival to intention-to-treat (ITT) survival from registration, we assessed predictors of post-LT survival and estimated the benefit of LT. The median MELD scores at LT were 22 (HCC) and 24 (non-HCC). A higher MELD score at LT was independently associated with lower post-LT mortality in the HCC group [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.73-0.98] and higher post-LT mortality in the non-HCC group (HR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.15-1.25). Compared with the HCC group, the non-HCC group had lower post-LT mortality [relative risk (RR) = 0.85, log-rank P < 0.01] but higher ITT mortality (RR = 1.25, log-rank P < 0.01) because of a 33 percentage point lower probability of undergoing LT. In conclusion, a longer waiting time before LT for HCC predicted longer post-LT survival in a national transplant registry. Delaying LT for HCC may reduce disparities in ITT survival and access to LT among different indications and thereby improve system utility and organ allocation equity for the overall pool of LT candidates.