Lifetime risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma in patients with Barrett's esophagus.

ABSTRACT

AIM: To investigate the lifetime risk of development of esophageal adenocarcinoma and/or high-grade dysplasia in patients diagnosed with Barrett's esophagus. METHODS: Data were extracted from the United Kingdom National Barrett's Oesophagus Registry on date of diagnosis, patient age and gender of 7877 patients from who had been registered from 35 United Kingdom centers. Life expectancy was evaluated from United Kingdom National Statistics data based upon gender and age at year at diagnosis. These data were then used with published estimates of annual adenocarcinoma and high-grade dysplasia incidences from meta-analyses and large population-based studies to estimate overall lifetime risk of development of these study endpoints. RESULTS: The mean age at diagnosis of Barrett's esophagus was 61.6 years in males and 67.3 years in females. The mean life expectancy at diagnosis was 23.1 years in males, 20.7 years in females and 22.2 years overall. Using data from published meta-analyses, the lifetime risk of development of adenocarcinoma was between 1 in 8 and 1 in 14 and the lifetime risk of high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma was 1 in 5 to 1 in 6. Using data from 3 large recent population-based cohort studies the lifetime risk of adenocarcinoma was between 1 in 10 and 1 in 37 and of the combined end-point of high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma was between 1 in 8 and 1 in 20. Age at Barrett's esophagus diagnosis is reducing and life expectancy is increasing, which will partially counter-balance lower annual cancer incidence. CONCLUSION: There is a significant lifetime risk of development of high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus.