Effect of dietary adherence on the body weight plateau: a mathematical model incorporating intermittent compliance with energy intake prescription.

BACKGROUND: Clinical weight loss in individuals typically stabilizes at 6 mo. However, validated models of dynamic energy balance have consistently shown weight plateaus between 1 and 2 y. The cause for this discrepancy is unclear. OBJECTIVE: We developed 2 mathematical models on the basis of the first law of thermodynamics to investigate plausible explanations for reaching an early weight plateau at 6 mo. DESIGN: The first model was an energy-expenditure adaptation model and was applied to determine the degree of metabolic adaptation required to generate this plateau. The second model was an intermittent lack-of-adherence model formulated by using a randomly fluctuating energy intake term accounting for intermittent noncompliance in dietary intake to reach this plateau. To set model variables, validate models, and compare free-living weight-loss patterns to in-residence supervised programs, we applied the following 4 different studies: The US NHANES 1999-2004, Comprehensive Assessment of Long-term Effects of Reducing Intake of Energy (CALERIE) weight-loss study, the Bouchard Twin overfeeding study, and the Minnesota Starvation Experiment. RESULTS: The metabolic adaptation model increased final weight but did not affect the predicted plateau time point. The intermittent lack-of-adherence model generated oscillating weight graphs that have been frequently observed in weight-loss studies. The model showed that a 6-mo weight-loss plateau can be attained despite what can be considered as high diet adherence. The model was programmed as a downloadable application. CONCLUSIONS: An intermittent lack of diet adherence, not metabolic adaptation, is a major contributor to the frequently observed early weight-loss plateau. The new weight-loss prediction software, which incorporates an intermittent lack of adherence, can be used to guide and inform patients on realistic levels of adherence on the basis of patient lifestyle.