Risk factors and prediction score for chronic pancreatitis: A nationwide population-based cohort study.
World J Gastroenterol
; 24(44): 5034-5045, 2018 Nov 28.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30510378
ABSTRACT
AIM:
To explore the risk factors of developing chronic pancreatitis (CP) in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and develop a prediction score for CP.METHODS:
Using the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan, we obtained large, population-based data of 5971 eligible patients diagnosed with AP from 2000 to 2013. After excluding patients with obstructive pancreatitis and biliary pancreatitis and those with a follow-up period of less than 1 year, we conducted a multivariate analysis using the data of 3739 patients to identify the risk factors of CP and subsequently develop a scoring system that could predict the development of CP in patients with AP. In addition, we validated the scoring system using a validation cohort.RESULTS:
Among the study subjects, 142 patients (12.98%) developed CP among patients with RAP. On the other hand, only 32 patients (1.21%) developed CP among patients with only one episode of AP. The multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of recurrent AP (RAP), alcoholism, smoking habit, and age of onset of < 55 years were the four important risk factors for CP. We developed a scoring system (risk score 1 and risk score 2) from the derivation cohort by classifying the patients into low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk categories based on similar magnitudes of hazard and validated the performance using another validation cohort. Using the prediction score model, the area under the curve (AUC) [95% confidence interval (CI)] in predicting the 5-year CP incidence in risk score 1 (without the number of AP episodes) was 0.83 (0.79, 0.87), whereas the AUC (95%CI) in risk score 2 (including the number of AP episodes) was 0.84 (0.80, 0.88). This result demonstrated that the risk score 2 has somewhat better prediction performance than risk score 1. However, both of them had similar performance between the derivation and validation cohorts.CONCLUSION:
In the study,we identified the risk factors of CP and developed a prediction score model for CP.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Temas:
Geral
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Pancreatite Crônica
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
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Aged
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
World J Gastroenterol
Assunto da revista:
GASTROENTEROLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2018
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Taiwan