The Global Interest in Vaccines and Its Prediction and Perspectives in the Era of COVID-19. Real-Time Surveillance Using Google Trends.
Int J Environ Res Public Health
; 18(15)2021 07 24.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34360134
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The COVID-19 pandemic has globally overwhelmed all sectors of life. The fast development of vaccines against COVID-19 has had a significant impact on the course of the pandemic.METHODS:
Global data from Google Trends was analyzed for vaccines against flu, BCG, HPV, pneumococcal disease, polio, and COVID-19. The time frame includes the last five-year period starting from 17 April 2016. Multiple training of time series models with back testing, including Holt-Winters forecasting, Exponential Smoothing State Space, Linear model with trend and seasonal components (tlsm), and ARIMA was conducted. Forecasting according to the best fitting model was performed.RESULTS:
Correlation analysis did not reveal a decrease in interest in vaccines during the analyzed period. The prediction models provided a short-term forecast of the dynamics of interest for flu, HPV, pneumococcal and polio vaccines with 5-10% growth in interest for the first quarter of 2022 when compared to the same quarter of 2021.CONCLUSIONS:
Despite the huge interest in the COVID-19 vaccine, there has not been a detectable decline in the overall interest in the five analyzed vaccines.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Temas:
Geral
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Pandemias
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Int J Environ Res Public Health
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Polônia