Novel machine learning models to predict pneumonia events in supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage populations: An analysis of the Risa-MIS-ICH study.

ABSTRACT

Background: Stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) contributes to high mortality rates in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) populations. Accurate prediction and early intervention of SAP are associated with prognosis. None of the previously developed predictive scoring systems are widely accepted. We aimed to derive and validate novel supervised machine learning (ML) models to predict SAP events in supratentorial sICH populations. Methods: The data of eligible supratentorial sICH individuals were extracted from the Risa-MIS-ICH database and split into training, internal validation, and external validation datasets. The primary outcome was SAP during hospitalization. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used for variable filtering, and logistic regression (LR), Gaussian naïve Bayes (GNB), random forest (RF), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and ensemble soft voting model (ESVM) were adopted for ML model derivations. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) were adopted to evaluate the predictive value of each model with internal/cross-/external validations. Results: A total of 468 individuals with sICH were included in this work. Six independent variables [nasogastric feeding, airway support, unconscious onset, surgery for external ventricular drainage (EVD), larger sICH volume, and intensive care unit (ICU) stay] for SAP were identified and selected for ML prediction model derivations and validations. The internal and cross-validations revealed the superior and robust performance of the GNB model with the highest AUC value (0.861, 95% CI 0.793-0.930), while the LR model had the highest AUC value (0.867, 95% CI 0.812-0.923) in external validation. The ESVM method combining the other six methods had moderate but robust abilities in both cross-validation and external validation and achieved an AUC of 0.843 (95% CI 0.784-0.902) in external validation. Conclusion: The ML models could effectively predict SAP in sICH populations, and our novel ensemble model demonstrated reliable robust performance outcomes despite the populational and algorithmic differences. This attempt indicated that ML application may benefit in the early identification of SAP.