Estimating long-term progression-free and overall survival in patients with peripheral T-cell lymphoma: A US population-based oncology simulation model based on 5-year results from the ECHELON-2 trial.

BACKGROUND: The ECHELON-2 5-year update showed continued clinically meaningful improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival with frontline (1L) A+CHP (brentuximab vedotin in combination with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, prednisone) vs CHOP (cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisone) in CD30-expressing peripheral T-cell lymphomas (PTCLs). OBJECTIVE: To estimate PTCL annual prevalence in the United States in 2031 without and with A+CHP using data from the ECHELON-2 5-year update. METHODS: Population-level outcomes were estimated using a dynamic oncology simulation model. Utilization of 1L CHOP (65% utilization) and CHOP plus etoposide (35% utilization) were varied over time and compared with scenarios incorporating 1L A+CHP (20%-50% utilization; base case: 40% utilization) per expert clinicians' opinion. Additional inputs included PTCL incidence and PFS for consolidation and post-1L therapies from published sources. PFS (51.4% [95% CI = 42.8%-59.4%] vs 43.0% [35.8%-50.0%]) and overall survival (hazard ratio = 0.72 [0.53-0.99]) for A+CHP and CHOP came from ECHELON-2. RESULTS: In 2031, an estimated 2,082 patients will be diagnosed with PTCL. Approximately 1,412 additional patients will be alive and progression free, and 106 fewer patients will require second-line therapy with 40% A+CHP utilization vs no A+CHP utilization. Varying 1L A+CHP utilization from 20%-50% vs no 1L A+CHP utilization added 732 to 1,752 patients alive and progression free. CONCLUSIONS: In this oncology simulation model, the improvements in survival outcomes seen with A+CHP vs CHOP in the ECHELON-2 5-year results translated into more estimated patients with PTCL progression free and alive for at least 5 years following 1L A+CHP vs CHOP and a decreased need for post-1L therapy. DISCLOSURES: This study was funded by Seagen Inc. Dr Liu and Dr Yu are employees and shareholders of Seagen Inc. Mr Bloudek is and Dr Mordi was an employee of Curta Health, which received funding from Seagen Inc. for the conduct of this study. Dr Burke received consulting fees from Genentech/Roche, AbbVie, Seattle Genetics, Bayer, AstraZeneca, Adaptive Biotechnologies, Verastem, MorphoSys, Kura, Epizyme, BeiGene, Kymera, Novartis, Bristol Myers Squibb, TG Therapeutics, Lilly, and Nurix; and received payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events in speakers bureaus for BeiGene and Seagen Inc. Dr Phillips received consulting fees from AstraZeneca, MorphoSys, Epizyme, Roche/Genentech, Epizyme Eli Lilly, AbbVie, BeiGene, Pharmacyclics, Bristol Myers Squibb, Xencor, Seagen Inc., TG Therapeutics, Bayer, Incyte, and Gilead; and received payment for honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Epizyme and Seagen Inc.