Predicting papillary thyroid microcarcinoma in American College of Radiology Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (ACR TI-RADS) 3 nodules: radiomics analysis based on intratumoral and peritumoral ultrasound images.

ABSTRACT

Background: A subset of patients undergoing thyroid surgery for presumed benign thyroid disease presented with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). A non-invasive and precise method for early recognition of PTMC are urgently needed. The aim of this study was to construct and validate a nomogram that combines intratumoral and peritumoral radiomics features as well as clinical features for predicting PTMC in the American College of Radiology Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (ACR TI-RADS) 3 nodules using ultrasonography. Methods: A retrospective review was conducted on a cohort of 221 patients who presented with ACR TI-RADS 3 nodules. These patients were subsequently pathologically diagnosed with either PTMC or benign thyroid nodules. These patients were randomly divided into a training and test cohort with an 82 ratio for developing the clinical model, intratumor-region model, peritumor-region model and the combined-region model respectively. The radiomics features were extracted from ultrasound (US) images of each patient. We employed K-nearest neighbor (KNN) model as the base model for building the radiomics signature and clinical signature. Finally, a radiomics-clinical nomogram that combined intratumoral and peritumoral radiomics features as well as clinical features was developed. The prediction performance of each model was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity and calibration curve. Results: A total of 23 radiomics features were selected to develop radiomics models. The combined-region radiomics model showed favorable prediction efficiency in both the training dataset (AUC 0.955) and the test dataset (AUC 0.923). A radiomics-clinical nomogram was constructed and achieved excellent calibration and discrimination, which yielded an AUC value of 0.950, a sensitivity of 0.950 and a specificity of 0.920. Conclusions: This study proposed the nomogram that contributes to the accurate and intuitive identification of PTMC in ACR TI-RADS 3 nodules.