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1.
J Dairy Sci ; 103(1): 514-528, 2020 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31733860

RESUMO

This study simulated the consequences of crossbreeding between Swedish Holstein and Swedish Red on herd dynamics and herd profitability under Swedish conditions. Two base herds were simulated using a stochastic herd simulation model, SimHerd Crossbred. The herds reflected average Swedish conventional and organic herds having purebred Swedish Holstein. For each base herd, 3 breeding strategies were simulated: pure-breeding, 2-breed terminal crossbreeding, and 2-breed rotational crossbreeding. The terminal crossbreeding strategy implied having a nucleus of Swedish Holstein and a proportion of F1 Swedish Red × Swedish Holstein crossbred cows within the same herd. The crossbreds in this herd did not produce replacement heifers but exclusively beef × dairy cross calves. Beef semen was also used in the pure-breeding (10-20% in cows) and the rotational crossbreeding (40% in cows) strategies to retain a limited surplus of replacement heifers. To ensure an adequate number of crossbreds in the terminal crossbreeding strategy, X-sorted sexed semen was used for insemination in all the purebred heifers. The outcome was 67% purebred and 31% F1 crossbreds in the herd. In addition, 31% heterosis was expressed compared with 67% heterosis expressed using a 2-breed rotational crossbreeding strategy. Compared with the pure-breeding strategy, crossbreeding increased the annual contribution margin per cow by €20 to €59, with the rotational crossbreeding strategy creating the largest profitability. The increased profitability was mainly due to improved functional traits, especially fertility. For the conventional production system, the replacement rate was 39.3% in the pure-breeding strategy and decreased to 35.8 and 30.1% in the terminal and rotational crossbreeding strategy, respectively. Similar changes happened in the organic production system. Additionally, the crossbreeding strategies earned €22 to €42 more annually per cow from selling live calves for slaughter due to the extended use of beef semen. Milk production was similar between pure-breeding and terminal crossbreeding, and only decreased 1 to 2% in rotational crossbreeding. These results show that crossbreeding between Swedish Holstein and Swedish Red can be profitable in both conventional and organic Swedish herds using the strategies we have simulated. However, some aspects remain to be investigated, such as the economically optimal breeding strategy, genetic improvement, and transition strategies.


Assuntos
Bovinos , Indústria de Laticínios , Hibridização Genética , Animais , Simulação por Computador , Indústria de Laticínios/economia , Indústria de Laticínios/métodos , Feminino , Lactação , Masculino , Modelos Biológicos , Fenótipo , Suécia
2.
J Dairy Sci ; 100(5): 4161-4171, 2017 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28237584

RESUMO

Dairy farmers can increase the number of dairy heifer calves born in their herd by using sexed semen. They can reduce the number of both dairy bull and heifer calves by using beef semen. Long before sexed semen became commercially available, it was believed that it would provide opportunities for increasing genetic level in both herds and populations. In this study, we studied the potential for increasing the genetic level of a herd by using beef semen in combination with sexed semen. We tested the hypothesis that the potential of increasing the genetic level and the overall net return would depend on herd management. To test this hypothesis, we simulated 7 scenarios using beef semen and sexed semen in 5 herds at different management levels. We combined the results of 2 stochastic simulation models, SimHerd and ADAM. SimHerd simulated the effects of the scenarios and management levels on economic outcomes (i.e., operational return) and on technical outcomes such as the parity distribution of the dams of heifer calves, but it disregarded genetic progress. The ADAM model quantified genetic level by using the dams' parity distributions and the frequency of sexed and beef semen to estimate genetic return per year. We calculated the annual net return per slot as the sum of the operational return and the genetic return, divided by the total number of slots. Net return increased up to €18 per slot when using sexed semen in 75% genetically superior heifers and beef semen in 70% genetically inferior, multiparous cows. The assumed reliability of selection was 0.84. These findings were for a herd with overall high management for reproductive performance, longevity, and calf survival. The same breeding strategy reduced net return by €55 per slot when management levels were average. The main reason for the large reduction in net return was the heifer shortage that arose in this scenario. Our hypothesis that the potential for beef semen to increase genetic level would be herd-specific was supported. None of the scenarios were profitable under Danish circumstances when the value of the increased genetic level was not included. A comparable improvement in genetic level could be realized by selectively selling dairy heifer calves rather than using beef semen.


Assuntos
Indústria de Laticínios , Sêmen , Pré-Seleção do Sexo/veterinária , Animais , Bovinos , Feminino , Inseminação Artificial/veterinária , Masculino , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
3.
J Dairy Sci ; 98(1): 263-74, 2015 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25468701

RESUMO

The objective of this paper was to compare efficiency measures, milk production, and feed intake for lactating cows in commercial herds using different breeds and production and milking systems. To accomplish this, we used all feed evaluations made by the Danish extension service during the period November 2012 to April 2013 for 779 herds, of which 508 were Holstein-Friesian (HOL); 100 were Jersey (JER); and 171 herds were a mixture of these 2 breeds, other dairy breeds, and crossbreeds (OTH). The annually recorded, herd-average energy-corrected milk (ECM) yield was 8,716kg (JER) and 9,606kg (HOL); and average herd size was 197 cows (HOL) and 224 cows (JER). All cows were fed a total mixed or partial mixed ration supplemented with concentrate from feeding stations, housed in loose housing systems with a slatted floor, and milked in either a parlor milking unit or an automatic milking system. Energy efficiency was calculated as net energy efficiency defined as total energy demand as a percentage of energy intake and as residual feed intake defined as energy intake (net energy for lactation; NEL) minus energy requirement. Production efficiency was expressed as kilograms of ECM per kilogram of dry matter intake (DMI), kilograms of ECM per 10 MJ of net energy intake (NEL), kilograms of ECM per 100kg of BW, and kilograms of DMI per 100kg of BW. Environmental efficiency was expressed by the nitrogen efficiency calculated as N in milk and meat as a percentage of N in intake, and as enteric emission of methane expressed as kilograms of ECM per megajoule of CH4. Mean milk yield for lactating cows was 30.4kg of ECM in HOL and 3kg less in JER, with OTH herds in between. Mean NEL intake was 122 MJ in JER, increasing to 147 MJ in HOL, whereas ration energy density between breeds did not differ (6.4-6.5 MJ of NEL per kg of DMI). The NEL intake and DMI explained 56 and 47%, respectively, of variation in production (ECM) for HOL herds but only 44 and 27% for JER. Jersey had a higher efficiency than HOL and OTH, except in nitrogen efficiency, where no significant difference between breeds existed. Most of the efficiency measures were internally significantly correlated and in general highly positively correlated with milk production, whereas the correlation to DMI was less positive and for JER negative for net energy efficiency, kilograms of ECM per kilogram of DMI, and nitrogen efficiency. Only little of the variation in efficiency between herds could be explained by differences in nutrient or roughage content of DMI. This could be explained by the fact that data were collected from herds purchasing feed planning and evaluation from the extension service.


Assuntos
Bovinos/fisiologia , Suplementos Nutricionais , Lactação/fisiologia , Leite/química , Ração Animal/economia , Animais , Bovinos/classificação , Bovinos/genética , Indústria de Laticínios/economia , Dinamarca , Fibras na Dieta/metabolismo , Suplementos Nutricionais/economia , Ingestão de Alimentos/fisiologia , Ingestão de Energia , Feminino , Hibridização Genética , Lactação/genética , Metano/metabolismo
4.
J Dairy Sci ; 98(2): 1078-81, 2015 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25497789

RESUMO

In a recent data study using 2.4 million lactations of 1.5 million cows, it was reported that gestation of a female calf in the first parity increases cumulative milk production by approximately 445kg over the first 2 lactations. The reported effect in this study is large and remarkable because it has not been found before. To our knowledge, the economic implications of this or any other sex bias have not been studied. The objective of the current study was to quantify the reported influence of fetal sex across lactations by using a simulation model of a dairy herd including youngstock. Two scenarios were evaluated and compared with a scenario in which cows and heifers were exclusively bred with conventional (nonsexed) semen. In the first scenario, sexed semen was used moderately-on 30% of all heifers and 30% of the first parity cows. A second scenario was studied in which sexed semen was used intensively-on all heifers and 50% of the first-parity cows. The simulated proportion of cows giving birth to 2 consecutive heifers increased from 23% when using exclusively conventional semen up to 31 and 48% when using sexed semen moderately and intensively, respectively. The proportion of cows having 2 consecutive bulls decreased from 27% (conventional semen only) to 20 and 8% when using sexed semen moderately and intensively, respectively. When incorporating the sex bias in the simulation model, the simulated milk yield in the scenario in which sexed semen was used moderately increased by 48kg of energy-corrected milk (ECM) per cow/yr, compared with only 36kg of ECM when not incorporating the sex bias in the model. For the scenario in which sexed semen was used intensively, milk yield increased by 66 and 99kg of ECM when excluding and including the sex bias, respectively. The economic implications of the assumed sex bias were €4.0 and €9.9 per cow/yr, in the scenarios in which sexed semen was used moderately and intensively, respectively.


Assuntos
Bovinos/fisiologia , Indústria de Laticínios/economia , Inseminação Artificial/veterinária , Leite/economia , Modelos Econômicos , Pré-Seleção do Sexo/veterinária , Animais , Feminino , Lactação/fisiologia , Masculino , Gravidez
6.
Prev Vet Med ; 111(1-2): 51-62, 2013 Aug 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23628337

RESUMO

Salmonella Dublin affects production and animal health in cattle herds. The objective of this study was to quantify the gross margin (GM) losses following introduction and spread of S. Dublin within dairy herds. The GM losses were estimated using an age-structured stochastic, mechanistic and dynamic simulation model. The model incorporated six age groups (neonatal, pre-weaned calves, weaned calves, growing heifers, breeding heifers and cows) and five infection stages (susceptible, acutely infected, carrier, super shedder and resistant). The effects of introducing one S. Dublin infectious heifer were estimated through 1000 simulation iterations for 12 scenarios. These 12 scenarios were combinations of three herd sizes (85, 200 and 400 cows) and four management levels (very good, good, poor and very poor). Input parameters for effects of S. Dublin on production and animal health were based on literature and calibrations to mimic real life observations. Mean annual GMs per cow stall were compared between herds experiencing within-herd spread of S. Dublin and non-infected reference herds over a 10-year period. The estimated GM losses were largest in the first year after infection, and increased with poorer management and herd size, e.g. average annual GM losses were estimated to 49 euros per stall for the first year after infection, and to 8 euros per stall annually averaged over the 10 years after herd infection for a 200 cow stall herd with very good management. In contrast, a 200 cow stall herd with very poor management lost on average 326 euros per stall during the first year, and 188 euros per stall annually averaged over the 10-year period following introduction of infection. The GM losses arose from both direct losses such as reduced milk yield, dead animals, treatment costs and abortions as well as indirect losses such as reduced income from sold heifers and calves, and lower milk yield of replacement animals. Through sensitivity analyses it was found that the assumptions about milk yield losses for cows in the resistant or carrier stages had the greatest influence on the estimated GM losses. This was more influential in the poorer management scenarios due to increased number of infected cows. The results can be used to inform dairy farmers of the benefits of preventing introduction and controlling spread of S. Dublin. Furthermore, they can be used in cost-benefit analyses of control actions for S. Dublin both at herd and sector level.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Bovinos/economia , Indústria de Laticínios/economia , Indústria de Laticínios/métodos , Salmonelose Animal/economia , Animais , Bovinos , Doenças dos Bovinos/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Bovinos/microbiologia , Doenças dos Bovinos/transmissão , Dinamarca/epidemiologia , Incidência , Modelos Econômicos , Dinâmica Populacional , Prevalência , Salmonelose Animal/epidemiologia , Salmonelose Animal/microbiologia , Salmonelose Animal/transmissão , Salmonella enterica/fisiologia , Estações do Ano , Sensibilidade e Especificidade
7.
J Dairy Sci ; 94(8): 3824-34, 2011 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21787919

RESUMO

Effect of time for culling cows infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis on prevalence and profitability was identified through simulations. Seven test-and-cull strategies with different culling criteria and no attempts to close infection routes were compared with strategies with (1) no control and (2) closure of infection routes and no culling. The effects on true prevalence and gross margin were evaluated in a herd with typical reproduction management (heat detection rate of 38%). This was repeated in a herd with poor reproduction management (heat detection rate of 28%), because poor reproduction leads to lack of replacement animals, which was hypothesized to affect the economic effects of culling. Effects of varying prices of milk, replacement heifers, and hourly wages were also evaluated. The simulated results predicted that immediate culling after the first positive antibody ELISA test would be the most effective culling strategy to reduce prevalence. However, closing transmission routes was even more effective in reducing the prevalence. In the first 3 to 6 yr, all test-and-cull strategies reduced gross margin by US$5 to 55/stall per year. These losses were fully compensated by increased gross margin in yr 6 to 19. In the short run (7 yr with typical reproduction and 10 yr with poor reproduction), it was most profitable to cull test-positive cows when their milk yield decreased below 85% of that expected according to their parity and lactation stage, especially in herds with poor reproduction management. However, this strategy only stabilized the prevalence and did not reduce it. In the long term (>7 yr from implementation of a strategy), it was most profitable to cull cows immediately or as soon as possible after testing positive the first time. Varying milk prices did not affect the ranking between the different culling strategies. Increased market price (20%) of replacement heifers made all culling strategies less profitable and made culling based on a milk yield criterion the most profitable culling strategy for a longer period (11 to 13 yr). A 20% reduction in heifer price made immediate culling after a positive test the most profitable strategy overall in herds with typical reproduction, and after 9 yr in herd with poor reproduction. To conclude, the ideal culling strategy depends on the aim of intervention, the time horizon, and the reproductive capabilities combined with prices of replacement animals.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Bovinos/prevenção & controle , Indústria de Laticínios/métodos , Paratuberculose/prevenção & controle , Animais , Bovinos , Doenças dos Bovinos/diagnóstico , Indústria de Laticínios/economia , Ensaio de Imunoadsorção Enzimática/veterinária , Paratuberculose/diagnóstico , Prevalência , Fatores de Tempo
8.
J Dairy Sci ; 93(1): 358-69, 2010 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20059934

RESUMO

The objectives of this study were 1) to estimate costs related to 5 different pathogen-specific mastitis traits (susceptibility to different pathogens causing mastitis in dairy cattle) and unspecific mastitis, and 2) to compare selection differentials for an udder health index consisting of 5 different pathogen-specific mastitis traits and lactation average somatic cell count from 5 to 170 d after first calving (LASCC170) with another index consisting of 1 unspecific mastitis trait and LASCC170. Economic values were estimated for mastitis caused by Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, Escherichia coli, coagulase-negative staphylococci, and Streptococcus uberis using a stochastic simulation model (SimHerd IV). Mastitis incidences for SimHerd IV were from incidences of mastitis treatments in primiparous Danish Holstein cows calving in 2007. Estimated costs ranged from 149 euro to 570 euro per mastitis case and were highest for contagious pathogens such as Staph. aureus and coagulase-negative staphylococci and lowest for Strep. dysgalactiae and Strep. uberis. The value for unspecific mastitis was 231 euro per case. Selection differentials (in euro) were estimated for 4 different selection indices, including 1) unspecific mastitis, 2) unspecific mastitis and LASCC170, 3) 5 pathogen-specific mastitis traits and unspecific residual mastitis (unspecific mastitis treatments minus mastitis treatments caused by the 5 pathogens), and 4) as index 3 including LASCC170. The breeding goal was identical to selection index 3. Mastitis data from primiparous cows calving from 1998 to 2008 were used to estimate genetic parameters of the mastitis traits using linear models and AI-REML algorithm. These parameters were used for construction of the selection index equations. For the selection indices, information sources were measurements of mastitis treatments and LASCC170 from 50, 80, or 130 daughters of a bull as well as measurements of mastitis treatments from 1,000 progeny of the bull's sire and 1,000 daughters of his maternal grandsire. Differences in selection differentials were marginal among the 4 indices. Without considering LASCC170, the selection differential of an unspecific mastitis index was 0.4 euro (<1%) better than that of a pathogen-specific index. On the other hand, the selection differential of the pathogen-specific index was 0.3 euro (<1%) better than that of an unspecific index when LASCC170 was included in the indices. Reliabilities of the selection indices were 0.62 to 0.67 (80 daughters) and were proportional to the selection differential. Changing the number of daughters to 50 or 130 did not change ranking of the indices. Heritabilities of the pathogen-specific traits were very low (h(2)=0.005-0.021) compared with unspecific mastitis (h(2)=0.062), which may limit the selection differential of the pathogen-specific index.


Assuntos
Infecções Bacterianas/veterinária , Glândulas Mamárias Animais , Mastite Bovina , Seleção Genética , Algoritmos , Animais , Bactérias , Infecções Bacterianas/economia , Infecções Bacterianas/genética , Infecções Bacterianas/microbiologia , Cruzamento , Bovinos , Contagem de Células , Simulação por Computador , Indústria de Laticínios/economia , Feminino , Lactação , Modelos Lineares , Masculino , Glândulas Mamárias Animais/microbiologia , Glândulas Mamárias Animais/fisiologia , Mastite Bovina/economia , Mastite Bovina/genética , Mastite Bovina/microbiologia , Modelos Genéticos , Fenótipo , Característica Quantitativa Herdável , Fatores de Risco
9.
Animal ; 4(10): 1758-70, 2010 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22445130

RESUMO

The main aim was to assess the impact of mastitis on technical and economic results of a dairy herd under current Swedish farming conditions. The second aim was to investigate the effects obtained by withdrawing milk with high somatic cell count (SCC). A dynamic and stochastic simulation model, SimHerd, was used to study the effects of mastitis in a herd with 150 cows. Results given the initial incidence of mastitis (32 and 33 clinical and subclinical cases per 100 cow-years, respectively) were studied, together with the consequences of reducing or increasing the incidence of mastitis by 50%, modelling no clinical mastitis (CM) while keeping the incidence of subclinical mastitis (SCM) constant and vice versa. Six different strategies to withdraw milk with high SCC were compared. The decision to withdraw milk was based on herd-level information in three scenarios: withdrawal was initiated when the predicted bulk tank SCC exceeded 220 000, 200 000 or 180 000 cells/ml, and on cow-level information in three scenarios: withdrawal was initiated when the predicted SCC in an individual cow's milk exceeded 1 000 000, 750 000 or 500 000 cells/ml. The accuracy with which SCC was measured and predicted was assumed to affect the profitability of withdrawing milk with high SCC and this was investigated by applying high, low or no uncertainty to true SCC. The yearly avoidable cost of mastitis was estimated at €8235, assuming that the initial incidence of mastitis could be reduced by 50%. This cost corresponded to 5% of the herd net return given the initial incidence of mastitis. Expressed per cow-year, the avoidable cost of mastitis was €55. The costs per case of CM and SCM were estimated at €278 and €60, respectively. Withdrawing milk with high SCC was never profitable because this generated a substantial amount of milk withdrawal that was not offset by a sufficient increase in the average price per delivered kg milk. It had the most negative impact on net return when high incidence of mastitis was simulated. Withdrawing milk with high SCC based on low-uncertainty information reduced the amount of withdrawn milk and thus resulted in less negative effect on net return. It was concluded that the current milk-pricing system makes it more profitable for farmers to sell a larger amount of milk with higher SCC than to withdraw milk with high SCC to obtain payment premiums, at least in herds with mastitis incidences within the simulated ranges.

10.
Animal ; 3(2): 315-28, 2009 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22444235

RESUMO

The main aim of the present study was to examine the economic consequences of a reduction in the incidence of clinical mastitis (CM) at herd level under current Swedish farming conditions. A second objective was to ask whether the estimated cost of CM alters depending upon whether the model reflects the fact that in different stages of lactation, CM gives rise to different yield-loss patterns or postulates just one type of yield-loss pattern irrespective of when, during lactation, CM occurs. A dynamic and stochastic simulation model, SimHerd, was used to study the effects of CM in a herd with 150 cows (9000 kg of energy-corrected milk per cow-year). Four herd types, defined by production level and reproductive performance, were modelled to investigate possible interactions between herd type and response to a reduction in the risk of CM. Technical and economic results, given the initial incidence of CM (25.6 per 100 cow-years), were studied together with the consequences of reducing the initial risk of CM by 50% and 90% throughout lactation and the consequences of reducing the initial risk by 50% and 90% before peak yield. A conventional way of modelling yield losses - i.e. one employing a single yield-loss pattern irrespective of when, during the lactation period, the cow develops CM - was compared with a new modelling strategy in which CM was assumed to affect production differently depending on its lactational timing. The effect of the choice of reference level when estimating yield losses was investigated by comparing the results obtained using the potential yield of mastitic cows, had they not developed CM, with those obtained using the yield of non-mastitic cows. The yearly maximum avoidable cost of CM at herd level was estimated at €14 504, corresponding to 6.9% of the net return given the initial incidence of CM. Expressed per cow-year, the maximum avoidable cost was €97. The cost per case of CM was estimated at €428. Herd types all responded in a similar manner to the reduced relative risk of CM. There were no major differences in the results obtained using the new and the conventional modelling strategy, with the exception of the cost per case of CM. Similarities between the results obtained using the two methods were particularly evident when the mastitic cows' own yield level, had they not developed CM, was used as the reference for production in healthy cows when yield losses were estimated. It was concluded that the conventional way of modelling yield losses is adequate and should, for the foreseeable future, be used in decision support systems.

11.
J Dairy Sci ; 91(12): 4599-609, 2008 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19038935

RESUMO

Long-term effects of paratuberculosis on within-herd prevalence and on-farm economy of implementing risk-based control strategies were compared with alternative strategies by using a herd-simulation model. Closing transmission routes is essential for effective control of paratuberculosis. However, many farmers lack the resources to carry out these procedures for all cows in the herd. When using risk-based control strategies 1) all cows are tested quarterly with a milk ELISA, 2) specific cows with a high risk of being infectious are identified, and 3) the farmer can focus only on these infectious animals to close infection routes. In this way the workload can be reduced, making these control strategies more feasible. This study evaluates potential long-term effects of the risk-based approach compared with non-risk-based strategies by simulations conducted with the herd-simulation model PTB-Simherd. Seven control strategies were simulated in herds with initial true herd prevalences of 5, 25, and 50%, respectively. The results predicted the risk-based control strategies to be very efficient and comparable to the best whole-herd strategies in reducing the within-herd prevalence of paratuberculosis with considerably less labor. If infection routes are closed efficiently, prevalence can be reduced to 10% of initial prevalence within 5 to 7 yr. Test-and-cull strategies without closing infection routes were found, by simulation, to be ineffective in reducing prevalence and were not cost-effective methods. The profitability of the various control strategies depends on hourly wages and time spent per cow/calving. Furthermore, simulations show that immediate culling of highly infectious cows is only necessary and cost-effective if infection routes from these cows are not efficiently closed. The risk-based control strategies are recommended in the Danish voluntary control program "Operation Paratuberculosis," which was initiated in February 2006 and now includes 1,220 dairy farmers in Denmark.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Bovinos/economia , Doenças dos Bovinos/prevenção & controle , Indústria de Laticínios/economia , Indústria de Laticínios/métodos , Paratuberculose/economia , Paratuberculose/prevenção & controle , Animais , Bovinos , Doenças dos Bovinos/diagnóstico , Doenças dos Bovinos/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador , Paratuberculose/diagnóstico , Paratuberculose/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Fatores de Risco
12.
J Dairy Sci ; 91(2): 620-31, 2008 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18218749

RESUMO

Monte Carlo simulation was used to predict the long-term financial performance related to the technical performance of dairy herds. The indicators addressed were derived from data collected routinely in the herd. They indicated technical performance that can be affected by the farmer or the consultant, and they were derived from expected cause-effect relations between technical performance and financial performance at the herd level. The study included the indicators shape of lactation curve, reproduction efficiency, heifer management, variation between cows in lactation curve persistency, mortality in cows and calves, dynamics of body condition, and somatic cell counts. Each indicator was defined by 2 or 3 levels, and 2- and 3-factor interactions were included in the simulation experiment, which included 72 scenarios. Each scenario was replicated 200 times, and the resulting gross margin per cow was analyzed as the measure of financial performance. The potential effects of the selected indicators on the gross margin were estimated by means of an ANOVA. The final model allowed estimation of the financial value of specific changes within the key performance indicators. This study indicated that improving the shape of the herd-level lactation curve by 1 quartile was associated with an increase in gross margin of euro 227 per cow year. This represents 53% of the additional available gross margin associated with all the management changes included in the study. The improved herd-level lactation curve increased the gross margin 2.6 times more than improved reproduction efficiency, which again increased the gross margin 2.6 to 5.9 times more than improved management related to heifers, body condition score, mortality, and somatic cell counts. These results were implemented in a simple "metamodel" that used data extracted from ordinary management software to predict herd-specific financial performance related to major management changes. The metamodel was derived from systematic experiments with a complex simulation model that was used directly for advanced herd-specific decision support. We demonstrated the use of these key performance indicators to forecast the financial consequences of different "what-if" herd management options, with emphasis on herd health economics.


Assuntos
Bovinos , Indústria de Laticínios/economia , Leite/economia , Modelos Econômicos , Animais , Simulação por Computador , Dinamarca , Feminino , Método de Monte Carlo , Reprodução
13.
Theriogenology ; 64(4): 819-43, 2005 Sep 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16054489

RESUMO

For several years progesterone in milk or blood has been recognized as an indicator of different cow states related to reproduction. For this study, an existing simulation model was modified in order to analyze the technical and economic effects of including information on progesterone status in an automatic inline monitoring system. Implementation of an inline progesterone indicator was assumed to directly affect the estrus detection rate, the period until treatment for post-partum anestrus and the number of mistimed AIs. Different implementations of an inline progesterone indicator were simulated in a typical Danish dairy herd with 120 cows and in other herd situations represented by: a herd with poor reproduction efficiency, a herd with a high estrus detection rate and a herd using a 9 week postponed AI period for primiparous cows. It was concluded that implementation of an inline progesterone indicator in a dairy herd previously using visual estrus detection has a break-even price of 3-81 euros per cow-year depending on differences in implementation type and herd reproduction management. The highest break-even price was found using the assumptions that simulated a herd with initially poor reproductive efficiency. With the assumptions that simulated a typical Danish herd the break-even price was 46 euros per cow-year. Attributable effects of using the indicator, including effects of labor time, are discussed.


Assuntos
Bovinos/fisiologia , Indústria de Laticínios/economia , Indústria de Laticínios/métodos , Progesterona/análise , Reprodução , Animais , Custos e Análise de Custo , Detecção do Estro/economia , Detecção do Estro/métodos , Feminino , Inseminação Artificial/veterinária , Leite/química , Modelos Biológicos
14.
J Dairy Sci ; 83(4): 721-33, 2000 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10791788

RESUMO

A dynamic, stochastic, and mechanistic Monte Carlo model, simulating a dairy herd with focus on the feeding-health-production complex is presented. By specifying biological parameters at cow level and a management strategy at herd level, the model can simulate the technical and economic consequences of scenarios at herd level. The representation of the feeding-health-production complex is aimed to be sufficiently detailed, to include relationships likely to cause significant herd effects, and to be sufficiently simple to enable a feasible parameterization of the model and interpretation of the results from the model. Consequently, diseases are defined as four disease types: two metabolic disease types, an udder disease type, and a reproductive disease type. Risk factors for the diseases were defined as parity, yield capacity, disease recurrence, disease interrelationships, lactation stage, and season. Direct effects of the diseases were defined according to milk yield, feed intake, feed utilization, conception, culling, involuntary removal, and death. Scenarios differing in base risks of milk fever and ketosis, heat detection rate, and culling strategy were simulated for describing the model behavior. Annual milk yield per cow was decreased by increased risk of ketosis and by increased risk of milk fever, even though no direct effect of milk fever on milk yield was modeled at the cow level. The indirect effect from milk fever is a consequence of increased replacement rate (relatively lower milk yield from younger cows). By ignoring the history of milk fever in insemination and replacement decisions, a significantly reduced net income per cow was found in some herds. We concluded that important benefits from using such a herd model are the capability of accounting for herd management factors and the advantage of avoiding to double count the indirect effects from disease, such as increased risk of other diseases, poorer reproduction results, and increased risk of culling and death.


Assuntos
Bovinos/fisiologia , Indústria de Laticínios , Ingestão de Alimentos , Nível de Saúde , Lactação , Modelos Biológicos , Animais , Doenças dos Bovinos/economia , Doenças dos Bovinos/fisiopatologia , Indústria de Laticínios/economia , Indústria de Laticínios/métodos , Feminino , Modelos Estatísticos , Método de Monte Carlo , Gravidez , Fatores de Risco
15.
Mol Divers ; 3(1): 17-27, 1997.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-9527474

RESUMO

This report describes a versatile approach in the generation of peptidomimetic bead libraries. The method is based on the preparation of peptide-peptoid hybrids using the portioning-mixing procedure, which gives diverse peptidomimetic bead libraries composed of peptides, peptoids and peptide-peptoid hybrids. We term these peptomers, from peptide-peptoid hybrid polymers. The synthesis of the peptomers is easily accomplished by adapting the peptoid synthesis strategy, in which a primary amine reacts with bromoacetic acid, and we combine this methodology with conventional peptide synthesis. The sequence of the active compound is deduced by conventional microsequencing using Edman degradation chemistry, thus avoiding the synthesis of a coding structure or the addition of molecular tags. We demonstrate the utility of the peptomer approach by the synthesis of a bead library together with the identification of novel peptidomimetic ligands binding to the macromolecular targets streptavidin and the insulin receptor.


Assuntos
Desenho de Fármacos , Peptídeos/química , Sítios de Ligação , Cromatografia Líquida de Alta Pressão , Indústria Farmacêutica/métodos , Glicina/análogos & derivados , Glicina/química , Modelos Moleculares , Peptídeos/síntese química , Peptídeos/metabolismo , Peptoides , Receptor de Insulina/metabolismo , Resinas Vegetais/química , Análise de Sequência/métodos , Estreptavidina/metabolismo
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